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racedo 16th Aug 2019 11:54


Originally Posted by The Nip (Post 10546697)


Latest economic figures,

Update on latest G7 GDP growth. A public service provided esp. for the elucidation of "Giles of the FT". % change in GDP from Q2 2018 to Q2 2019:

US 2.3

France 1.3

Canada 1.3 Q1

UK 1.2

Japan 1.2

Eurozone 1.1

Germany 0.4

Italy 0.0

If you really think the Eurozone is going to be able to fund Ireland, you may be mistaken.
So despite BREXIT, the UK is still doing well. The Eurozone figure is an average.

GDP done Qtr by Qtr and UK declined by 0.2% in last Qtr.
https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/gdp-growth

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-growth

KelvinD 16th Aug 2019 15:15

Exrigger: Thanks for the link. Some very interesting stats in there. Some years ago, when I was a bit more lively and still had a boat, I often took my nipper to Brixham for a spot of sea fishing and I couldn't help noticing the boats based there seemed to be going through a period of name changing. I asked a local about it and was told the licences were being bought up by Dutch operators. Same boat, same port and same crew but now suddenly owned by Dutch companies. Then, some years after that, I was working in Saudi Arabia and came across a bloke from Cumbria (working for BAE, I think) and he was telling me how he had inherited a fishing boat from his father. I asked him if he was going to go home and run the boat and he told me he planned to sell it. While the boat was small and in need of a lot of TLC, the licence that went with the boat would be worth around 400,000 to a European operator.

NoelEvans 16th Aug 2019 15:21

There has been a lot of talk from the Muddlebrains of Parliament (MPs) about how they intend to stop a 'no deal Brexit'. But how will they do it? Are they going to 'arrange' for a deal before 31 October? (Having rejected the only one proposed to them three times over the past three years, I cannot see them arranging that in the next less-than-three-months.) Are they going to postpone Brexit? The Muddlebrains are deluding themselves if they think that is an option as The Macaroon will just say "non" and it will all stop there. (He said last time that any extension could only be justified if there was good reason to do so with signs of progress -- our Muddlebrains are just showing signs of immense befuddled confusion rather than progress!). Our Muddlebrains of Parliament will not have the say that they think they have as it will all be in The Macaroon's hands.

So by far the most likely outcome is 31 October without a deal.

Instead of causing more 'kicking the can down the road', confusion and uncertainty with huge disadvantages to business and everyone's well-being that this causes, why not just get on with this most likely outcome and make the best of it?

KelvinD 16th Aug 2019 15:56

In my earlier post where I said:

An interesting point but I think it is worth considering that the Good Friday agreement is in serious danger of falling apart just now.
This is an example of what I was referring to (nothing to do with the US Congress etc).
In the period 2006 to 2015 there has been 1,100 terrorist shootings & bombings, 3,899 reports of people forced from their homes, half a ton of explosives seized, along with 849 firearms.
Source: https://www.thedetail.tv/articles/hu...ries-each-year
From those figures, it is worth asking the question: What sort of "peace deal" was this really? For whom is it peaceful?
Effluent man: Resorting to personal attacks on Mostafa is a bit low. If you haven't tried or experienced it, you are hardly in a position to attack him for having an opinion. If Mostafa chose to sink as low as yourself and go down the ad hominem road, who knows..he may come up with something like "Those who can do, those who can't teach".
I think every serviceman from that period has the right to feel angry. Remember, the Army was sent there as the police were unable to cope with the civil unrest with their prime role being the protection of the Catholic minority and they were welcomed by that minority, who regarded them as saviours. It didn't take long for the IRA to spot an opportunity to revive their flagging fortunes and turn the Catholics into an anti-Army mob. I felt sorry for the Catholics as they now found themselves being forced into violent action against those who had come there to protect them from a pretty evil Protestant regime (and I am a Protestant). They were between the proverbial rock and a hard place.
As for the "why did you join the Army (while I was more honourable and chose to devote my career to teaching)", well that is just stupid.
In 1938, it was obvious trouble was brewing in Europe and my Dad joined the Navy as he thought it was the right thing to do for his country. When the Navy discovered he was only 14, they packed him off from HMS Ganges back home with a note to mother. In 1942, he was able to rejoin and he served 4 years. In 1950, he was called back to the Navy he had no problems with that as he had been discharged post WW2 with a commitment to the Reserves. Having drawn his reserve pay for almost 4 years, he was only too happy to fulfill his side of the deal.
His brother, on the other hand was at Cambridge at the outbreak of WW2. He found himself being recruited for Bletchley Park and spent a large part of the war based in Ceylon (as it was then) as part of a Naval establishment, decrypting Japanese codes. At the end of the war, he went into education from teaching at a grammar school to lecturing at university to, ultimately, deputy director of education for Cheshire. And he had no regrets about his military service before the education service. He had the attitude that both equally involved service to his country. And you would never hear him contrast one against the other.

wiggy 16th Aug 2019 17:27


Originally Posted by NoelEvans (Post 10546848)
Instead of causing more 'kicking the can down the road', confusion and uncertainty with huge disadvantages to business and everyone's well-being that this causes, why not just get on with this most likely outcome and make the best of it?

Just maybe because a significant number of people believe leaving with "no deal" will lead to confusion and uncertainty with huge disadvantages to everyone's well-being.


.Our Muddlebrains of Parliament will not have the say that they think they have as it will all be in The Macaroon's hands.
Remember the comment upthread about fans of Brexit needing to "own" this? Well the "Muddlebrains" as you put it will own this one if it happens, lets not start trying to blame foreign elected politicians.

747 jock 16th Aug 2019 17:48


Originally Posted by Effluent Man (Post 10546289)
I find it a little ironic that at this late stage he is complaining about being shot at after willingly placing himself at the centre of a shooting war. I was training as a teacher at that time, I wonder why he chose to shoot people whilst I chose to educate them?

Just out of curiosity EM, would you have the balls to voice that opinion in a bar full of squaddies or do you only feel able to state it on an anonymous forum?

As to why you decided to teach others.
This might well explain it:
https://idioms.thefreedictionary.com...n%27t%2C+teach

MOSTAFA 16th Aug 2019 19:19

Gentlemen thank you but please; you really don’t need to stand up for me. Our effluent teacher in no way bothers me, disgusts me yes but bothers me not and his post has not gone unnoticed by many. I just can’t be bothered with the likes of him anymore. You see what he has no idea of is why I chose my path, I really enjoyed my time holding the Queens Commission, it started, as I stated because that’s how I wanted it to start. My father was a highly decorated wartime paratrooper and my brother was also serving in the Parachute Regiment. Post all that and with a damned good job, an airline license, a masters degree with a distinction and 2 outstanding pensions which allow me to retire early and live the life of luxury.

I have decided that after being an ex military pilot, QHI and civil TRI/TRE for the past 35 years I’ve probably passed as much effluence as him over the years but I’m most pleased I’ve never bad mouthed anybody that served their country. Personally I believe left wing liberalism has ruined the country that I have fought for and when it’s time for me to join all those friends who fell along the way and that’s more than I can count with both my hands and my shoes and socks off I’ll tell them most of it was wasted on the likes of him.

racedo 16th Aug 2019 20:29

Seems like MPs may come together and elect Jeremy Corbyn or someone else as Prime Minister.

No doubt there will be screaming and gnashing of teeth and claiming how un Democratic it is, but aren't MPs the ones who decide whom is Prime Minister, seems this attitude was good a couple of weeks ago.

Phantom Driver 16th Aug 2019 20:55


Originally Posted by NoelEvans (Post 10546848)
Instead of causing more 'kicking the can down the road', confusion and uncertainty with huge disadvantages to business and everyone's well-being that this causes, why not just get on with this most likely outcome and make the best of it?

I do wonder how many times this message has to be repeated before it sinks in-- This will NOT be the end of uncertainty but the beginning ; years of negotiations ahead to arrive ( maybe , and that's if the negotiating team is half way competent) back at the status quo. Meanwhile every Tom, Dick and Harry queuing up to snap up assets at bargain basement prices from a desperate seller with a weakening currency .
Have you taken a trip down to Scunthorpe or Sunderland or Swindon recently......

ORAC 16th Aug 2019 21:24


Seems like MPs may come together and elect Jeremy Corbyn or someone else as Prime Minister.
A long way to go before that might come to pass.

The PM is not elected, but appointed by the Sovereign. The current PM is Boris.

There is is a possibility that there might be a vote of no confidence, but losing that vote does not require the PM to resign.

I can repost post the link, but the constitutional requirement is that the PM remains in post until such till that they can recommend to the Sovereign an “alternate person” who enjoys the confidence of the House. In this respect the “confidence of the House” means capable of appointing a government (cabinet) which can successfully issue a manifesto and subsequently pass both a Queens Speech and a Budget Act through both Houses of Parliament.

It it is obvious that the present negotiations amongst remainers are aimed solely at reaching agreement on someone who would be trusted to ask for an extension to A50 then resign and then ask for an election themselves. In these circumstances the PM would be entitled to refuse to recommend the candidate and wait out the 14 day period to trigger an election.

It has Lso been suggested that some MPs would vote against Boris in a vote of no confidence but then against any other proposed government exactly to trigger an election which would last till after 31st Oct And trigger Brexit - and others who would abstain in a vote of no confidence explicitly to prevent that happening.

It it is possible that such a refusal to resign by the PM would lead to appeals to the Supreme Court to adjudicate (risky, they tend to avoid directly in such matters of the Royal Prerogative) or to the Queen herself. In such matters ER tends to follow precedent, and in 1979 the then PM, James Callaghan, lost such a vote and refused to resign, staying in post until losing the subsequent general election 39 days later.

Indeed, it is recognised that PMs will do exactly that, and that the percent is that the House solves the problem by means of refusing to pass a Queen’s Speech or budget, or by forcing a general election* - not by involving the courts or the Sovereign.

So, as I say, a long way to go - and no simple answer as to which way anything would be decided. Including the fact that, in such a confused situation, the EU might refuse another extension regardless.....

*https://publications.parliament.uk/p...dTextAnchor024

”50. .......”Dr Andrew Blick said that withholding a Budget has been viewed as the “reserve deterrent” or “nuclear option” for the House Commons if, after expressing a lack of confidence, the Government refuses to leave.54 Under an Act no confidence motion, the Government would no longer be able to resist the will of the House, because a general election will automatically be brought about after 14 days in the absence of the required confidence motion. However, this reserve deterrent of withholding a Budget could still be used to deal with a Government refusing to resign following a no confidence vote outside the terms of the Act.“.......

https://assets.publishing.service.go...net-manual.pdf

See sections 2.18 to. 2.20.....

racedo 16th Aug 2019 21:38


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 10547135)
A long way to go before that might come to pass.

The PM is not elected, but appointed by the Sovereign. The current PM is Boris.

There is is a possibility that there might be a vote of no confidence, but losing that vote does not require the PM to resign.

320 voting against Boris

320 the voting in support of JC or AN Other as PM.............. BJ could stay but no support of Parliment.

HM could then appoint someone else and nowt BJ could do.

Popcorn time and a comfy chair.

NoelEvans 16th Aug 2019 21:50


Originally Posted by wiggy (Post 10546951)
... a significant number of people believe leaving with "no deal" will lead to confusion and uncertainty with huge disadvantages to everyone's well-being.

And a significant number think differently.


Originally Posted by wiggy (Post 10546951)
... lets not start trying to blame foreign elected politicians.

If you read what I said carefully, you will see that I have not blamed any 'foreign elected politicians', I have simply stated facts as they are. If I am 'blaming' anyone, it is those Muddleheads who don't look at the facts.

NoelEvans 16th Aug 2019 21:55


Originally Posted by MOSTAFA (Post 10547020)
...Personally I believe left wing liberalism has ...

MOSTAFA, like your post and almost everything that you have said, but please, please please do not mix 'left wing' with 'liberalism'! 'Left wing' encompasses some of the most illiberal ideologies that have ever existed.

NoelEvans 16th Aug 2019 21:57


Originally Posted by racedo (Post 10547144)

320 the voting in support of JC ...

And exactly how is that going to happen?

NoelEvans 16th Aug 2019 22:01


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 10547135)
So, as I say, a long way to go - and no simple answer as to which way anything would be decided. Including the fact that, in such a confused situation, the EU might refuse another extension regardless.....

Exactly as The Macaroon has stated. But then the Muddlebrains have been making so much of their own noise that they could not hear ...

racedo 16th Aug 2019 22:02


Originally Posted by NoelEvans (Post 10547156)
And exactly how is that going to happen?

By MPs walking into voting lobby.

Jack D 16th Aug 2019 22:40

This whole thing is getting very heated .,
but once again, as a reductionist , someone called me that, why not ?

It goes like this ..

BJ is PM
leave on 31st OCt or before
after that ... ??
Stop wetting the bed and reclaim your dignity

Ignore the Irish pm who attends pride rallies in N I
not in the republic ? ffs


NutLoose 17th Aug 2019 00:01

I still cannot see how a border in Ireland will work, if the UK PLC refuses to erect one, then surely the only option is for the EU to erect and pay for it all, something I have seen them appear to balk at, so how would that work as no one on our side would be carrying out immigration and customs duties and the EU wouldn't be doing it for us.

G0ULI 17th Aug 2019 00:44

The British public voted to leave the EU.
The Referendum question imposed no terms or conditions, a binary choice, in or out of the EU.

As far as the war in Ireland is concerned, it never really stopped although mainland UK activities were curtailed.

The Republic of Ireland can stay in the EU, or leave the EU and rejoin the UK again, or make a go of it as an independent nation, just like the UK. It is not the UK's responsibility to run Irish affairs or insulate them from the effects of EU membership.The UK is leaving the EU and has offered to leave cross border arrangements in Ireland almost exactly as they currently exist. It is the EU that is stirring the pot in order to provoke trouble. Let the EU sort it out, because it is their problem now.

ORAC 17th Aug 2019 05:22

https://www.conservativehome.com/the...e-neither.html

Brexit and No Deal. The Prime Minister has a policy, and a plan to deliver it. His opponents agree on neither.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk...son-playground

Len McCluskey accuses Jo Swinson of 'playground politics' as row over Jeremy Corbyn unity government call deepens



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