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WB627 21st Mar 2021 16:09


Originally Posted by ThorMos (Post 11013353)
The 'divorce settlement' is part of the Withdrawal agreement.

Does that matter if we are doing tit for tat retaliations? They want the money we want the deal ratified, I cant see the problem with withholding the money until they do what they were supposed to have done already.


ATNotts 21st Mar 2021 16:18


Originally Posted by WB627 (Post 11013346)
No ratification of the TCA - No payment of the divorce settlement?

If UK wants to totally screw the economy that would be a good way to go about it!

WB627 21st Mar 2021 16:32


Originally Posted by ATNotts (Post 11013381)
If UK wants to totally screw the economy that would be a good way to go about it!

No TCA we're screwed anyway. Well we're screwed any way we'd just be a bit more screwed.


andrewn 21st Mar 2021 16:38


Originally Posted by ATNotts (Post 11013381)
If UK wants to totally screw the economy that would be a good way to go about it!

This constant bleating about how Brexit will affect the economy is getting dull. Covid means the entire global economy has ALREADY gone down the pan! Pretty much every major economy on the planet is saddled with a debt mountain that most would accept is unserviceable, unless of course it never has to be paid back... 😉

If we've proved one thing in the last 12 months, it's that all the accepted norms about the economy have been thrown out the window. Sorry to tell you but Brexit is at most a rounding error in the long term macro economic outlook. If you dont believe me look at the latest BoE outlook headlines
BoE Monetary Policy Report Feb 21

There's plenty of other independent analysis out there that says Britain is likely to outgrow our EU friends over the medium and long term.

Denti 21st Mar 2021 16:53


Originally Posted by andrewn (Post 11013342)
As others have said, it's not always black and white, i.e. globalisation or not. It's more nuanced than that, let me give you an example... A couple of years ago I stopped at a delightful farmhouse b&b in Wiltshire. When I went to rebook for next year I was told that wasn't possible because they wouldn't be here. They were tenant farmers and the farm, and a large chunk of surrounding land, had been bought by Chinese investors and our b&b hosts had been given notice to leave. To me that's globalisation gone crazy and there should be appropriate checks and balances in place to prevent that type of "foreign direct investment".

Another example, opposite end of the spectrum, large parts of land around Manchester Airport are being torn up and developed into ghastly warehousing, more hotels, business parks, etc. Where's the money coming from for this horrendous wheeze? You guessed it, China. Again, why, who benefits from this stuff? Basically, it's just a free for all where our land is flogged off to the highest bidder for the purpose of making maximum profit. All wrong, in my opinion.

That is not globalism though, that is just UK regulation on foreign direct investment. A completely homegrown problem, nothing more, nothing less. And warehouses, hotels, business parks etc. do mean more jobs in the area, for local people or those allowed to work and live in the UK, which is now quite a bit harder for many and impossible for low wage workers, leaving the highly qualified jobs for immigrants and the low paid ones for the local workforce.

highflyer40 21st Mar 2021 16:57


Originally Posted by andrewn (Post 11013396)
This constant bleating about how Brexit will affect the economy is getting dull. Covid means the entire global economy has ALREADY gone down the pan! Pretty much every major economy on the planet is saddled with a debt mountain that most would accept is unserviceable, unless of course it never has to be paid back... 😉

If we've proved one thing in the last 12 months, it's that all the accepted norms about the economy have been thrown out the window. Sorry to tell you but Brexit is at most a rounding error in the long term macro economic outlook. If you dont believe me look at the latest BoE outlook headlines
BoE Monetary Policy Report Feb 21

There's plenty of other independent analysis out there that says Britain is likely to outgrow our EU friends over the medium and long term.

That will never happen and is just dreaming. Itís like saying Canadaís economy will soon overtake Americaís economy. In the end itís always going to come down to scale. We are a small player now and some are trying to suggest we can overtake one of the worlds biggest economies? Never!

andrewn 21st Mar 2021 17:04


Originally Posted by Denti (Post 11013409)
That is not globalism though, that is just UK regulation on foreign direct investment. A completely homegrown problem, nothing more, nothing less. And warehouses, hotels, business parks etc. do mean more jobs in the area, for local people or those allowed to work and live in the UK, which is now quite a bit harder for many and impossible for low wage workers, leaving the highly qualified jobs for immigrants and the low paid ones for the local workforce.

Yep, we are the author of our own downfall in many respects, and are fully complicit in the globalist madness that prevails. Not really following your points at the end on migrant labour and low wage workers, but we can't have it all ways I'll agree with that. Like many others you seem to fall into the same old economists trap of "we need more jobs for more growth" and we need "more people to fill those jobs" and "more houses to house those people" and then we need even more jobs for all the extra people we thought we needed in the first place, because we needed more jobs to GROW the economy.

It's an economists and a developers paradise and pretty much everyone else's nightmare :)


andrewn 21st Mar 2021 17:06


Originally Posted by highflyer40 (Post 11013413)
That will never happen and is just dreaming. Itís like saying Canadaís economy will soon overtake Americaís economy. In the end itís always going to come down to scale. We are a small player now and some are trying to suggest we can overtake one of the worlds biggest economies? Never!

I didn't literally mean our economy would become bigger than the rest of the EU combined 🙃

WB627 21st Mar 2021 17:06


Originally Posted by highflyer40 (Post 11013413)
That will never happen and is just dreaming. Itís like saying Canadaís economy will soon overtake Americaís economy. In the end itís always going to come down to scale. We are a small player now and some are trying to suggest we can overtake one of the worlds biggest economies? Never!

Percentages %%% dear boy percentages not absolute value £ Ä $


Effluent Man 21st Mar 2021 17:13

The % ages are going to look pretty sick without The City able to trade freely. After the statement this morning that is looking increasingly unlikely. Losses will run into tens of billions and London will become a financial boondocks.

andrewn 21st Mar 2021 17:18


Originally Posted by Effluent Man (Post 11013421)
The % ages are going to look pretty sick without The City able to trade freely. After the statement this morning that is looking increasingly unlikely. Losses will run into tens of billions and London will become a financial boondocks.

What new portent of brexit related doom and disaster do you have for us today EM? :)

ATNotts 21st Mar 2021 17:23

andrewn


If we've proved one thing in the last 12 months, it's that all the accepted norms about the economy have been thrown out the window. Sorry to tell you but Brexit is at most a rounding error in the long term macro economic outlook. If you dont believe me look at the latest BoE outlook headlines
BoE Monetary Policy Report Feb 21

There's plenty of other independent analysis out there that says Britain is likely to outgrow our EU friends over the medium and long term.
I can't believe you had the nerve to write that, as a Brexiteer!!! Unless amnesia has set in you will doubtless recall that in 2016 we were told that experts couldn't be trusted, and economists had got it wrong. Now all of a sudden I see that experts are totally believable!!!!

Just to inject a little reality, in the event the UK/EU free trade agreement isn't ratified by the EP, as a consequence of a lack of trust in the UK resulting from unilateral decisions made regarding UK/NI trade then immediately WTO rates of duty would apply on exports to the EU, so that would totally snooker export of vehicles from the likes of Nissan and Toyota, and that in turn could lead to the premature closure of their manufacturing facilities in UK, since much of their UK production is destined for the EU. Airbus could also find themselves in trouble with shipments from their UK factories again being subject to import duties in EU. And if the UK fishermen, farmers and food manufacturers think things a re tough at the moment, working under WTO regards would make things virtually impossible.

In the other direction our imported BMWs, Audis, Skodas, Mercedes etc would all be subject to duties which given their magnitude will put up the retail prices of vehicles imported from EU. The UK could not act unilaterally as to do so would incur the wrath of other nations through the WTO.

The UK and all other economies are in deep sh1t as a result of Covid-19, but we are all roughly at the same level, how anyone expects the UK could prosper on the back of reneging on international agreements, losing a (fairly thin) trade deal with it's principal trading partner, and starting some sort of "trade war" by refusing to pay monies due to the EU as part of the withdrawal agreement I simply fail to comprehend.

Denti 21st Mar 2021 17:27


Originally Posted by Effluent Man (Post 11013421)
The % ages are going to look pretty sick without The City able to trade freely. After the statement this morning that is looking increasingly unlikely. Losses will run into tens of billions and London will become a financial boondocks.

Nah, don't overestimate the fallout. After all, trade in Euro denominated things amounts to only a quarter of the cities business. Yes, that will be gone by mid 2022 as then all equivalence measures will have run out and there is pretty much no chance at all of any equivalence being granted apart from those three sectors where it already has been, time limited of course.

That said, the City is and will remain one of the large international financial centers, it just will lose part of its trade, and probably win other parts of international financial business. And nobody in the EU who can think actually denies that, it is a reality. The City will hardly be a financial boondock. It might have to look for business in parts where it was not as invested in the past, and currently everything points to a more deregulated market.


In the other direction our imported BMWs, Audis, Skodas, Mercedes etc would all be subject to duties which given their magnitude will put up the retail prices of vehicles imported from EU. The UK could not act unilaterally as to do so would incur the wrath of other nations through the WTO.


That is already going on. The UK unilaterally does not control its borders in regards to EU imports, having led to numerous complaints at the WTO for breach of the most favored nation rule, the most basic WTO rule there is. Lead by the likes of the USA, Australia, New Zealand, China and Russia amongst many others.

andrewn 21st Mar 2021 17:47


Originally Posted by ATNotts (Post 11013429)
andrewn



I can't believe you had the nerve to write that, as a Brexiteer!!! Unless amnesia has set in you will doubtless recall that in 2016 we were told that experts couldn't be trusted, and economists had got it wrong. Now all of a sudden I see that experts are totally believable!!!!

What is indisputable is the BoE were wheeled out as part of the establishment "project fear" plot to scupper Brexit. It's noticeable recently they've rowed back on the Brexit is an unmitigated disaster rhetoric, however whether they really believe that or are just towing the current establishment line, well who knows!?

Mr Mac 21st Mar 2021 17:48

ATNotts
They know not what they do somebody is supposed to have said ! However with regards to the deep Sh1t, some economies are bouncing back notably in the Far East where we are operating.
andrewn
If you fail to grasp how important the City is to the UK then I am a little unsure of your qualifications to actually discuss the ramifications of Brexit. With regards to sheds popping up like Mushrooms over the midlands there is going to be some more, however you never know if we go to WTO these maybe become very large White Elephants as exporting into the EU will become expensive and problematic for some companies - why sit on island 21 miles away when you can sit in the EU quite easily ? Many of the sheds are being built on spec and as of last year that spec dev has started to dry up. I am aware of a UK medium size subcontractor heavily involved with one of the large Shed builders, who have been advised their turnover from this market will drop from £9.8m last year to circa £5m for this year with job losses already underway at that subcontractor as I have been interviewing some of their staff.
Cheers
Mr Mac

andrewn 21st Mar 2021 18:13


Originally Posted by Mr Mac (Post 11013440)
andrewn
If you fail to grasp how important the City is to the UK then I am a little unsure of your qualifications to actually discuss the ramifications of Brexit. With regards to sheds popping up like Mushrooms over the midlands there is going to be some more, however you never know if we go to WTO these maybe become very large White Elephants as exporting into the EU will become expensive and problematic for some companies - why sit on island 21 miles away when you can sit in the EU quite easily ? Many of the sheds are being built on spec and as of last year that spec dev has started to dry up. I am aware of a UK medium size subcontractor heavily involved with one of the large Shed builders, who have been advised their turnover from this market will drop from £9.8m last year to circa £5m for this year with job losses already underway at that subcontractor as I have been interviewing some of their staff.
Cheers
Mr Mac

Not sure where I said the City wasn't important to the UK? Good news on the sheds, they are out of control and an awful blot on our landscape. Given the ease with which they get thrown up it would be nice to think they can be taken down just as easily :)

Mr Mac 21st Mar 2021 18:21

andrewn
Your pension pot is probably invested in some of them, so will not be coming down quickly. Also given depth of concrete it will be quite a demo job !!

Cheers
Mr Mac

Arch Stanton 23rd Mar 2021 08:26


UK food and drink exports to EU plunged 75.5% in January
Reuters


Another slow handclap for all the brexiteers please. Well done, good job, try harder next time. That is lost jobs, factories closing down, tax revenue lost and people losing their homes...and don’t say we didn’t warn you.

Come on... it can’t be all bad news, surely you can give us at least one economic or social benefit in the three months since leaving the EU

ORAC 23rd Mar 2021 08:45

https://www.politico.eu/article/meet...ew-brexit-man/

Meet Richard Szostak: The EUís new Brexit divorce mediator

ORAC 24th Mar 2021 09:53

https://www.politico.eu/article/euro...deal-in-april/

European Parliament to ratify UK trade deal in late April, president says

The European Parliament will finally grant its consent to the EU-U.K. post-Brexit trade deal at a plenary session starting April 26, Parliament President David Sassoli said Tuesday.

"We will have our plenary April 26, so this is the last date" for ratification, Sassoli said in an interview with POLITICO, adding that "there will be no extension" to this date......

In the interview on Tuesday, Sassoli made clear on that the ratification of the deal must move forward, regardless of the U.K.'s actions, and he insisted that there would be no further delay.

"I’ll tell you honestly that many times, even we struggle to understand some of the behavior on the other side of the Channel," he said, adding: "What we want is a serene development of the agreements that have been sealed.".....

Officials said that a majority of MEPs appear ready to give their consent. The text must first go through the Parliament's foreign affairs and trade committees before the April plenary session.


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