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yellowtriumph 2nd Apr 2019 09:49


Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator (Post 10436346)
ITV News last night, female and male MP, talk interviewer. After asking and listening to tall female asks small male question, then interrupts. "If you stop talking I will answer your question" . Next question, same response so interviewer says we are running out of time, please be quick. Quick answer given and ". . . was that quick enough for you"

It was one of those interminable post-vote wash up interviews that are really insubstantial but entertaining never-the-less.

Anyway, what happens next? Kick can down road? Another referendum?

I don't mind another referendum, EU elections, GE. All money in the bank.

Nicky Morgan and Mark Francois. I’ve watched a number of TV interviews with Mark Francois and to fair to the chap it does seem that he often gets interrupted during his replies to interviews questions. I think this is often because his point of view is at odds with the interviewer so they ‘jump in’ to try and make their point rather than let Mark Francois finish his. Must be frustrating for him.

wiggy 2nd Apr 2019 09:59


Originally Posted by yellowtriumph (Post 10436478)


Nicky Morgan and Mark Francois. I’ve watched a number of TV interviews with Mark Francois and to fair to the chap it does seem that he often gets interrupted during his replies to interviews questions. I think this is often because his point of view is at odds with the interviewer so they ‘jump in’ to try and make their point rather than let Mark Francois finish his. Must be frustrating for him.

Ah, Mark..."I was in the Army,", " I didn't train to lose", "I don't do being afraid" ..Francois? aka Gareth Keenan. :} .....I think half the time he with at odds with himself, let alone the interviewer. I always got the impression he would argue with himself in a locked room.

ATNotts 2nd Apr 2019 10:53


Originally Posted by wiggy (Post 10436488)
Ah, Mark..."I was in the Army,", " I didn't train to lose", "I don't do being afraid" ..Francois? aka Gareth Keenan. :} .....I think half the time he with at odds with himself, let alone the interviewer. I always got the impression he would argue with himself in a locked room.

One wonders where they attach his microphone, seeing as how he talks out of his backside most of the time. I think TV journalists only have him on so that he can make himself look such a complete pillark.

racedo 2nd Apr 2019 13:00

So today can anybody summaries in 10 words or less what is happening.

Feel like there are 60 million people sitting behind the drivers asking "Are we there yet and where is it we are going"

virginblue 2nd Apr 2019 13:15

Isn't Mark Francois the fella who always boasts of his hot shot military career - which in fact is limited to a stint in the Territorial Army? Which, by the way, gives him less military training and experience than any soldier doing national service in countries that had it in the 1980s (= pretty much all countries on the continent...)? In those countries, probably two thirds of all males in his age bracket could claim "military training" "trained not to lose..." etc....


In other news, the UK's top civil servant has summarised the challenges ahead (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6875015/Top-mandarins-bombshell-No-Deal-Brexit-warning.html):

  • No-deal would result in a 10 per cent spike in food prices and the collapse of some businesses that trade with the EU;
  • The government would come under pressure to bail out companies on the brink;
  • It would hamper the ability of the police and security services to keep people safe;
  • It would lead to the reintroduction of direct rule in Northern Ireland for the first time since 2007;
  • A recession will hit the UK and the pound’s depreciation will be ‘more harmful’ than in 2008.
  • Our legal authorities and judicial system would be put under ‘enormous pressure’ ...


Pontius Navigator 2nd Apr 2019 13:36

Again the use of the word WOULD implying certainty when COULD would be a better word but less alarmist and selling fewer papers.

Anyway as there is no Parliament at Stormont what's new?

virginblue 2nd Apr 2019 13:48

The "woulds" are apparently direct quotes from an assessment of the challenges ahead by Sir Mark Sedwill, Britain's highest-ranking civil servant, prepared for HM's government. It is not as if the papers have turned "coulds" in his assessment into "woulds".

NoelEvans 2nd Apr 2019 13:56

Like racedo, I would also like some simple answers.

The big problem with the EU's Deal (known by journos here as "May's Deal") is the Irish Backstop. Without the Irish Backstop it would most likely have been approved ages ago.

The Irish Backstop is there to avoid the EU having to impose a 'hard border' in Ireland after the end of next year. (To 'honour' the Good Friday Agreement -- while I am prepared to hear the views of UK or Irish politicians on the Good Friday Agreement, it does give me a stomach upset when I hear some French MEP pontificating about 'honouring the Good Friday Agreement'.)

Due to the Irish Backstop causing the EU's Deal to be rejected, everyone is now saying that a No Deal departure is far more likely.

A No Deal departure will mean the EU having to impose a 'hard border' in Ireland after the end of next week.

Surely dropping the Irish Backstop, which is most likely to get the EU's Deal accepted by the UK Parliament, will delay the EU having to impose a 'hard' border' in Ireland from the end of next week to the end of next year?

To sum up: Dropping the Backstop delays the EU having to impose a 'hard border' in Ireland from the end of next week to the end of next year. Surely that is not just a benefit to us but also to the EU and very, very significantly to Ireland?

Am I missing something?

virginblue 2nd Apr 2019 14:50

The EU does not want a hard border. The EU wants an agreement that makes a hard border unnecessary. This - obviously - requires some sort of trade off unless you follow the "you can have the cake and it"-mantra by Camp Brexit that is apparently based on the assumption that you do neither need an agreement nor a border between the EU and the UK, but can, unlike everywhere else in the world, let anarchy govern the trade between the two entities.

yellowtriumph 2nd Apr 2019 14:53


Originally Posted by NoelEvans (Post 10436686)
Like racedo, I would also like some simple answers.

The big problem with the EU's Deal (known by journos here as "May's Deal") is the Irish Backstop. Without the Irish Backstop it would most likely have been approved ages ago.

The Irish Backstop is there to avoid the EU having to impose a 'hard border' in Ireland after the end of next year. (To 'honour' the Good Friday Agreement -- while I am prepared to hear the views of UK or Irish politicians on the Good Friday Agreement, it does give me a stomach upset when I hear some French MEP pontificating about 'honouring the Good Friday Agreement'.)

Due to the Irish Backstop causing the EU's Deal to be rejected, everyone is now saying that a No Deal departure is far more likely.

A No Deal departure will mean the EU having to impose a 'hard border' in Ireland after the end of next week.

Surely dropping the Irish Backstop, which is most likely to get the EU's Deal accepted by the UK Parliament, will delay the EU having to impose a 'hard' border' in Ireland from the end of next week to the end of next year?

To sum up: Dropping the Backstop delays the EU having to impose a 'hard border' in Ireland from the end of next week to the end of next year. Surely that is not just a benefit to us but also to the EU and very, very significantly to Ireland?

Am I missing something?

Yes, the EU will not drop the Backstop from the Withdrawal Agreement. Full stop.

KelvinD 2nd Apr 2019 14:53

Re the Backstop. From what I have gathered so far, the UK has tried to have this requirement dropped from the agreement. The UK government has proposed operating a customs border via technological means. This has been rejected out of hand repeatedly, with the EU side saying it isn't practical.
On the other hand, Varadkar, Barnier and and Junkers have been reported as saying that, if the UK leaves without an agreement, they are quite prepared to operate a customs border using technological means. Hello! Where did we hear this before?
As for the Good Friday agreement, nowhere does it mention customs borders. And a technology based solution would mean the border being left unharmed, just as it is today, maintaining the essence of the Agreement. If, on the other hand, the EU continues to play hard ball and the UK leaves without an agreement the EU will theoretically impose a border on the Irish side, undermining their own theories about what a border would do to the Good Friday Agreement. Pick a foot. Now shoot it!
If the reports of Varadkar et al talking about using technology as mentioned above are true, then all threats of a hard border go away.
The UK government could, in theory, say "Yeah. We will not impose border restrictions in Ireland. By the way, all goods entering the UK from Ireland will have to be cleared in Holyhead." There's plenty of space on Anglesey to build and operate a customs facility. There is even a sort of precedent for this. I remember about 30 or 40 years ago, all Japanese imports of VCR and other electronic consumer goods had to be landed in France and driven to a town nearer the centre of France (can't remember the name now) for customs clearance.

Fareastdriver 2nd Apr 2019 15:03


I remember about 30 or 40 years ago, all Japanese imports of VCR and other electronic consumer goods had to be landed in France and driven to a town nearer the centre of France
and a single customs officer would open and check each box.

virginblue 2nd Apr 2019 15:04

Apparently the DUP prefers a hard border between NI and the RoI over a customs border at Holyhead. So matter closed.

Why exactly would the EU - and for that matter, the RoI - prefer a hard Brexit over a customs border using technological means if the latter was workable?

bill fly 2nd Apr 2019 15:09

Ne'er cast a clout - till May is out...
 
And she soon will be...

NoelEvans 2nd Apr 2019 15:21


Originally Posted by yellowtriumph (Post 10436742)
Yes, the EU will not drop the Backstop from the Withdrawal Agreement. Full stop.

So... then it is quite OK for the EU for a hard border in Ireland from the end of next week? So, can we take that as proof that everything about 'honouring the Good Friday Agreement' from the EU side is just political hot air?

The choice is:
- the end of next year
or
- the end of next week.

yellowtriumph 2nd Apr 2019 16:08


Originally Posted by NoelEvans (Post 10436766)
So... then it is quite OK for the EU for a hard border in Ireland from the end of next week? So, can we take that as proof that everything about 'honouring the Good Friday Agreement' from the EU side is just political hot air?

The choice is:
- the end of next year
or
- the end of next week.

If you put "leo varadkar no hard border" into a www search engine of your choice you will find no end of articles and videos, some proclaiming there will be a hard border, some claiming the complete opposite. You can take your choice really.

My reading on the situation is that Varadkar is very, very worried about the effect of a no-deal exit on Eire hence why in the last couple of weeks he openly talks of cutting the Uk some slack etc etc. I think the EU are desperate to avoid a no deal Brexit and want May's deal passed.

The don't keep putting the exit date back to suit us, they do it to keep no-deal off the table as it is a disaster for the EU, they do it to suit themselves - and I would expect no different. If only our MP's had some balls.

Krystal n chips 2nd Apr 2019 16:36

First, a special mention for the sub mutant invertebrate putrescence whose patriotic valour clearly knows no bounds......

Secondly, it was "nice " of the Gov't to keep these incidents quietly hidden.....which makes you wonder what else is also being carefully not mentioned in the public domain....and why.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...-sabotage-plot

NoelEvans 2nd Apr 2019 17:07

I just do not understand the EU's heels being dug in about the Backstop.

Keep it and there is a very good chance of a 'hard border' in Ireland after the end of next week.

Discard it and there may be a need for a 'hard border' after the end of next year.

Surely discarding it would be better for everyone? Except their egos. Maybe that is what the problem is.

However, to see a more lighthearted side of this, here is a quote from the Monster Raving Loony Party's website (probably a party that has as much credibility as any others right now!):

"There will be no need for a backstop to the Brexit negotiations. We’ll have Alec Stewart as wicket-keeper."

MadamBreakneck 2nd Apr 2019 18:02


Originally Posted by zoigberg (Post 10436129)
1. ZOPA and TINA.
[big snip]

Thanks for that explanation, and the full speech which has left me one less hour shorter in the rest of my life. It was very interesting, but I still miss an insight into the EU side of things beyond, from the full speech, "...this has frankly rather bemused EU elites who are used to a British political elite who they think, basically correctly, never really thought about the EU in anything other than purely economic, mercantile terms. Suddenly, you are dealing with a UK elite which seems not to be deriving its negotiating positions from any analysis you recognise or remember of the UK’s vital national economic interests."
From both sides, there seems to have been total ignorance of that other negotiator's friend, BATNA (Best Alternative To Negotiated Agreement); or perhaps both sides have had 'prevarication, procrastination, and eventual withdrawal of Article 50' as their BATNA whilst continually refusing to admit it.
Meanwhile, sadly I still have no further understanding of what concessions the EU27 side have made from their opening baseliine in order to achieve a compromise. Maybe I never shall have.

MB

DON T 2nd Apr 2019 18:21


Originally Posted by NoelEvans (Post 10436858)
I

However, to see a more lighthearted side of this, here is a quote from the Monster Raving Loony Party's website (probably a party that has as much credibility as any others right now!):

"There will be no need for a backstop to the Brexit negotiations. We’ll have Alec Stewart as wicket-keeper."

Or you could adapt one from a few years ago,

Why is there only one monopolies commission

to

why is there only one EU commission


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