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Avionker 11th Sep 2019 19:40

The EU 27 will be dealing with the Prime Minister. It’s just that Parliament, not Cummings, will be pulling his strings...

ORAC 11th Sep 2019 19:44

I believe the point is they don’t like not knowing what is next. They want the decision reference an election and the reason, eg a referendum before they make a decision - not after. No matter how much the other parties want to hang Boris out to dry.

i would suspect they fear if they collaborate they will just have Boris back again in a couple of months with a majority. Better to strike now.

racedo 11th Sep 2019 20:33


Originally Posted by Avionker (Post 10566829)
A lot of people assuming Trump will still be in office and therefore in a position to screw the U.K. post Brexit. He can only serve 2 terms remember...

And do you think a Democratic President would do a lot to help the UK if it screwed around with the GFA ? Good luck on that one.

racedo 11th Sep 2019 20:35


Originally Posted by ATNotts (Post 10567180)
Now, if Johnson comes back miraculously, with a new deal he want to sell to Parliament, which the remaining Tory MPs will support 100% what will the opposition parties do? Vote for it, or prolong the agony. I'm afraid that again, because of our parliamentary, extremely adversarial, frankly kindergarten system, I know the answer.

Johnson will not get a deal through parliment, no matter what it is.

racedo 11th Sep 2019 20:37


Originally Posted by Avionker (Post 10567195)
They caused Brexit with their stupid bloody referendum, because they were running scared of the UKIP. They screwed up the whole negotiating process with their arrogance and ignorance. They called an unnecessary election leaving them beholden to the DUP. And now they won’t own the mess they created, oh no, now it’s everyone else’s fault.
Idiots.

Tory party is dead. Just funeral hasn't happened yet.

ORAC 12th Sep 2019 05:43

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/e...ners-wxh2gkvjc

EU officials regret getting into bed with Remainers

European Union officials and diplomats are “tearing their hair out” at the twists and turns of Labour’s “mad” Brexit policy and regret past tactical alliances with Remain campaigners.

One Brussels source close to negotiations said the EU had “made mistakes” with Labour and was now horrified at the party’s convoluted position as political chaos in Westminster raises the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn taking the keys to Downing Street. “They want us to negotiate a ‘credible’ deal and then they will campaign against it in a referendum? That is mad. How can we negotiate with people like that?” an EU source said. “Their divisions and magical thinking are as bad as anything the Conservatives produced — perhaps worse.”

The source expressed regrets that links with Sir Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, had helped shape Labour tactics that backfired by contributing to three defeats for Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement.

There is growing belief among officials that hardline Remain supporters, such as Sir Keir, have helped create a political crisis that has rebounded on the EU by unravelling the deal. Officials regret not cultivating other Labour MPs who support a withdrawal agreement to avoid alienating their party’s voters who backed Leave in northern and Welsh constituencies by campaigning to reverse Brexit.

“It would have been better to talk to sensible MPs like Stephen Kinnock or Lisa Nandy who want an agreement,” said the source.

More widely, European governments now believe that it has been a mistake to back Remainers such as Tony Blair and Lord Mandelson, who have links in Brussels and Paris, in their efforts to use delays to the Brexit deadline to keep Britain inside the EU. Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, has been active in encouraging Remain campaigners to press for extensions to the Article 50 process culminating in the recent House of Commons legislation to prevent a no-deal Brexit this week. President Macron held private meetings with Mr Blair this year to offer a two-year delay to Brexit, in order to give Remainers the chance to reverse the 2016 referendum.

“Remainers in the EU once saw merit in extension because it kept Britain in the EU. That is changing and it is changing fast in the capitals,” a senior EU diplomat said. “It has not been helpful and has been a get out jail free card allowing the Westminster parliament to think they do not have to take responsibility for the withdrawal agreement.”




ATNotts 12th Sep 2019 08:13

I got a bit of an sight yesterday into the sorts of questions YouGov ask their panel of respondents, as I was talking to one of my mother's carers who I found out is a member of the panel.

She has just completed what she said was a very short survey on attitudes to the PM, government and Brexit, particularly their opinions on "no deal". The questions were very simplistic requiring the familiar responses, chosen from Strongly agree, agree, neither agree nor disagree, disagree or strongly disagree and weren't nuanced in any way to find out at what point impacts on their own life of no deal might effect their opinions.

That makes the results pretty well worthless, since many respondents will be blissfully ignorant of possible or likely short or long term effects of different kinds of Brexit, and helps me understand why the alleged support for no deal is as high as it is reported to be in surveys, nothwithstanding the fact that throughout there is always a (small) majority in favour of leaving with a deal.

In this regard the Yellowhammer papers may prove to be a game changer in public opinion with regard to a gung-ho crash out.

Islandlad 12th Sep 2019 08:54

Nigel Farage wants a Deal
 
Clean Break Brexit – No Deal and Nigel Farage

SO Nigel now wants a deal with the EU! The only problem we then have to go back to the EU to negotiate a free trade deal supported by NF is outlined below in his own words.

A WTO Rules Base Line – GAT and NF is advocating a freeze on the current basis to keep things going – on Good Morning Britain 0740 9 September 2019 he talks about 'project fear' and scare mongering then says this:

‘the WTO sets a base line how businesses continue, but if we were deadly serious, if Brussels really thought we were leaving, in 50 days time, quite possibly, we could negotiate; I don’t want to get too technical, we could negotiate under GAT, a freeze, whereby, we carried on everything as it was with Europe for the next 2 years. We’d have left the European Union, so there are plenty of ways of sorting this out.’

Unfortunately the devil is in the detail. Nigel Farage does not have a meaningful way of leaving the EU. Project worries has overtaken project fear mongering.

But then the best bit:

‘I tell you what people do want: they want this over, they want it done, they want us to get on with the rest of our lives and I think. Who wants this to dominate our politics, our country, for the next five years, ten years?’

Having spent 25 years trying to get out of the EU!

I was very careful to transcribe EXACTLY what he said because I could not believe what i was hearing.

ORAC 12th Sep 2019 10:54

New EU Parliament President just giving speech in which he said they are willing to reopen WA to return to a Northern Ireland specific arrangement and make the backstop unnecessary.

ORAC 12th Sep 2019 10:57

I have never seen the great problem with such an arrangement. After all, the Channel Islands and IOM are part of the UK and not members of the EU, their relationship being governed by an appendix of the UK accession agreement. I cannot see why that cannot be replicated in part, or in a similar manner.

e.g.

http://www.gov.je/Government/Departm...ipeuanduk.aspx

Dr Jekyll 12th Sep 2019 12:03


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 10568170)
I have never seen the great problem with such an arrangement. After all, the Channel Islands and IOM are part of the UK and not members of the EU, their relationship being governed by an appendix of the UK accession agreement. I cannot see why that cannot be replicated in part, or in a similar manner.

e.g.

http://www.gov.je/Government/Departm...ipeuanduk.aspx

They aren't part of the UK.

Dr Jekyll 12th Sep 2019 12:05


Originally Posted by Islandlad (Post 10568057)
Clean Break Brexit – No Deal and Nigel Farage

SO Nigel now wants a deal with the EU! The only problem we then have to go back to the EU to negotiate a free trade deal supported by NF is outlined below in his own words.

A WTO Rules Base Line – GAT and NF is advocating a freeze on the current basis to keep things going – on Good Morning Britain 0740 9 September 2019 he talks about 'project fear' and scare mongering then says this:

‘the WTO sets a base line how businesses continue, but if we were deadly serious, if Brussels really thought we were leaving, in 50 days time, quite possibly, we could negotiate; I don’t want to get too technical, we could negotiate under GAT, a freeze, whereby, we carried on everything as it was with Europe for the next 2 years. We’d have left the European Union, so there are plenty of ways of sorting this out.’

Unfortunately the devil is in the detail. Nigel Farage does not have a meaningful way of leaving the EU. Project worries has overtaken project fear mongering.

But then the best bit:

‘I tell you what people do want: they want this over, they want it done, they want us to get on with the rest of our lives and I think. Who wants this to dominate our politics, our country, for the next five years, ten years?’

Having spent 25 years trying to get out of the EU!

I was very careful to transcribe EXACTLY what he said because I could not believe what i was hearing.

He's suggesting leaving the EU then setting up a trade deal from the outside. Perfectly reasonable. It's clear that when he says 'carry on everything as it was for the next 2 years' he's talking about tariff free trade. Not about remaining in the EU.

Fly Aiprt 12th Sep 2019 12:28


Originally Posted by Dr Jekyll (Post 10568216)
He's suggesting leaving the EU then setting up a trade deal from the outside. Perfectly reasonable.

Perfectly what ?!??

Islandlad 12th Sep 2019 13:03


Originally Posted by Dr Jekyll (Post 10568216)
He's suggesting leaving the EU then setting up a trade deal from the outside. Perfectly reasonable. It's clear that when he says 'carry on everything as it was for the next 2 years' he's talking about tariff free trade. Not about remaining in the EU.

Let's set all that up, get the agreement signed off, THEN leave seamlessly for optimal non disturbance. He seems to have all the detail sorted.

What could be wrong with that?

Sallyann1234 12th Sep 2019 14:32


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 10568170)
I have never seen the great problem with such an arrangement. After all, the Channel Islands and IOM are part of the UK and not members of the EU, their relationship being governed by an appendix of the UK accession agreement. I cannot see why that cannot be replicated in part, or in a similar manner.

Surprised you said that.
The Channel Islands are Crown Dependencies. They are not part of the UK.

Fly Aiprt 12th Sep 2019 16:13

French minister gives update about French preparation for Brexit.
He is questioning the UK preparation, especially concerning the port of Dover :

LowNSlow 12th Sep 2019 17:22

A Deutsche Bank analyst talks on Bloomberg

Gipsy Queen 12th Sep 2019 20:25


Originally Posted by ATNotts (Post 10568035)
That makes the results pretty well worthless, since many respondents will be blissfully ignorant of possible or likely short or long term effects of different kinds of Brexit, and helps me understand why the alleged support for no deal is as high as it is reported to be in surveys, nothwithstanding the fact that throughout there is always a (small) majority in favour of leaving with a deal.

I expect you probably are correct in your view but your comments are no less applicable to respondents of a Remain persuasion.

....throughout there is always a (small) majority in favour of leaving with a deal. I submit that those being in favour of a deal always has been pretty well a universal position; it has been the unsatisfactory nature of the deal which inter alia has caused the rumpus.

ORAC 13th Sep 2019 14:00

https://order-order.com/2019/09/13/p...16-referendum/

The Metropolitan Police have today announced there will be no further action against the Leave.EU campaign. The police said that there is insufficient evidence to justify any further criminal investigation. Campaign founder Arron Banks has demanded a public inquiry into Remainer MPs’ abuse of public office in response…


B Fraser 13th Sep 2019 17:55


Originally Posted by Fly Aiprt (Post 10568409)
French minister gives update about French preparation for Brexit.
He is questioning the UK preparation, especially concerning the port of Dover :i

Here's an answer from the chap who until recently, ran the port of Dover.




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