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Islandlad 10th Sep 2019 13:21


Originally Posted by Bob Viking (Post 10566454)
I have provided plenty. All you have to do is click search. As a point of principle I wonít do it for you.

BV

Don't worry Fly Airpt the Leavers are getting a bit twitchy as Brexit starts to slip.

They had their chance to leave and work on their own version of leave after they ousted Theresa May, if they had the leverage.

Out with a deal was better than without a deal, if the end result of their failure to vote for her deal leads to no exit at all

​​​​​​More moves to follow over the next 5 weeks.

NutLoose 10th Sep 2019 13:31

But thats the thing, it does not offer the opportunity to leave minus a deal, its leave with or remain, some will have voted to leave without and they are not giving those the chance to vote on it at the election..

ATNotts 10th Sep 2019 14:34


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 10566511)
But thats the thing, it does not offer the opportunity to leave minus a deal, its leave with or remain, some will have voted to leave without and they are not giving those the chance to vote on it at the election..

There will certainly be some who actually wanted to leave with no deal, however throughout the referendum campaign we were all told that we'd be able to leave in such away as to allow us take back control of our borders and laws, stop payments to the EU, and make our own trade deal - all whilst retaining the advantages of being inside the union. This was the cake and eat it scenario. We weren't sold all of the above, but no future trading or security arrangements which is what a no deal Brexit means.

If the government of the day decides that no deal is the best they can get, then the vote should be no deal vs. remain; if the government comes back with a deal then it is this, versus remain, that should form the question.

For what it's worth, even as a remainer, I believe the public would vote for a deal and leave. if it were no deal, then I think they'd vote for remain.

Avionker 10th Sep 2019 15:30


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 10566511)
But thats the thing, it does not offer the opportunity to leave minus a deal, its leave with or remain, some will have voted to leave without and they are not giving those the chance to vote on it at the election..

Iím pretty sure that a No Deal scenario will be in the Brexit Partyís manifesto. All the No Deal aficionados can vote for them.

ORAC 10th Sep 2019 15:34

Press reports that, now the surrender bill is law, and that the government must acquiesce to any conditions imposed by the EU for an extension, the French will demand a minimum of a 2 year extension and a second referendum as their price to agree.

Any such extension offer offer must be returned to the HoC for a vote. It will be interesting, if it gets that far, so see how MPs will vote.....

Fly Aiprt 10th Sep 2019 15:37


Originally Posted by Bob Viking (Post 10566454)
All you have to do is click search. As a point of principle I won’t do it for you.

Not exactly what I would qualifiy as a "reasoned debate and grown up discussion" (30th march 2019), but some of our British future ex-partners are sooo peculiar ;-)

Running back the time machine to Brexit prehistory, I finally stumbled on something :
" I voted leave because I detest multiple levels of government. Each level requires staff, buildings and associated costs. The EU parliament annual budget, just to exist, is roughly €1.5B."
[...]
" This is the root of the problem for me. If the EU had stayed as a strong trading block of wealthy nations I could see its benefit. The minute it expanded to let everyone in its decline became inevitable. "


Benefitting from the EU, then.
Europeans might smile : would the then sick man in Europe have been admitted ?

The Nip 10th Sep 2019 16:39


Originally Posted by Fly Aiprt (Post 10566606)
Not exactly what I would qualifiy as a "reasoned debate and grown up discussion" (30th march 2019), but some of our British future ex-partners are sooo peculiar ;-)

Running back the time machine to Brexit prehistory, I finally stumbled on something :
" I voted leave because I detest multiple levels of government. Each level requires staff, buildings and associated costs. The EU parliament annual budget, just to exist, is roughly Ä1.5B."
[...]
" This is the root of the problem for me. If the EU had stayed as a strong trading block of wealthy nations I could see its benefit. The minute it expanded to let everyone in its decline became inevitable. "


Benefitting from the EU, then.
Europeans might smile : would the then sick man in Europe have been admitted ?

While I can't answer your last point, the EU needs countries that are net contributors. How would the EU survive if those net contributors decided they did not want to be part of the project?

qwertyuiop 10th Sep 2019 17:13

Whether you are pro or anti Brexit you have to acknowledge that in a democracy the loser has to admit defeat. If this isn’t the case then we have the political system of a banana republic.
We must leave first and then campaign for re entry.

Fly Aiprt 10th Sep 2019 17:21

The Nip, this is a good question.
Of course nobody can answer, but what is sure is,
- The Brexit wil cost the EU much, not only in money, but in trade, employment, some businesses will go under.
- The cost in money will be about the same for the UK.
- The cost in trade for the UK is unknown in the absence of established trade deals, but it is expected to take time to strike hundreds of proper deals to replace those presently in place with the EU and other countries.
- To date there seems to be no doubt EU expects to survive, if only thanks to its sheer size and trade deals.
- Everybody in the EU is accepting the Brexit decision, although many consider it unwise.

Personally I have the notion that the British somehow see themselves as the mainstay of the EU whereas the situation might be more nuanced.
Let's say that this side of the Channel, it's Britain's survival that is in question ;-)

Many people are apalled at the show your politicians are displaying, and are questioning your governement's abilities to credibly deal with other countries.
The general opinion is "they said they're going, let them go and come what may".

Fly Aiprt 10th Sep 2019 17:25


Originally Posted by qwertyuiop (Post 10566669)
We must leave first and then campaign for re entry.

Heaven forbid !



qwertyuiop 10th Sep 2019 17:50


Originally Posted by Fly Aiprt (Post 10566681)
Heaven forbid !

Not my choice but the only way forward for remoaners wanting to live in a democracy

gizmo71 10th Sep 2019 18:19

It's one heck of a roundabout way to get the UK to adopt the Euro.

Una Due Tfc 10th Sep 2019 18:50


Originally Posted by qwertyuiop (Post 10566669)
We must leave first and then campaign for re entry.

Well the new EU trade commissioner, Phil Hogan, is from Varadkar's party and was nominated by Leo. He's the one you'll be negotiating any trade deal with as a non EU member for the next 5 years at least. Your government will need to change their tune on the backstop.

Leo really is playing a blinder I must say.

Fly Aiprt 10th Sep 2019 18:57


Originally Posted by gizmo71 (Post 10566714)
It's one heck of a roundabout way to get the UK to adopt the Euro.

Ah ah ah, you bet !
By this time, most Brexit voters will have long departed this world of euro and EU parliament^^!


Nige321 10th Sep 2019 19:08


Originally Posted by Krystal n chips (Post 10566451)
Awww, bless . Another lured by the eternal urban myth of a United States of Europe.

*

United States Of Europe...


One quote in particular has been making the rounds since von der Leyen's name started floating as an option at the Council summit this week: "My aim is the United States of Europe ó modelled on federal states like Switzerland, Germany or the U.S.," she told Der Spiegel in 2011. She repeated her call for a federal EU in an interview with Die Zeit in 2016, adding: "I imagine the Europe of my children or grandchildren not as a loose union of states trapped by national interests."As defense minister, she pushed for greater security cooperation in the EU, urging a "defense union" and calling for the establishment of an "army of Europeans."

No thanks...

Fly Aiprt 10th Sep 2019 19:13


Originally Posted by Una Due Tfc (Post 10566733)
He's the one you'll be negotiating any trade deal with as a non EU member for the next 5 years at least. Your government will need to change their tune on the backstop.

Before that happens, just a few formalities :

- Leave
- Get UK a government worthy of the name
- Realize what's going on once you're outside
- Manage the first emergencies : transports, food, medicines, fisheries...
- Honour your 40 odd billion committment

Not sure this will happen within the next 5 years...


Fly Aiprt 10th Sep 2019 19:19


Originally Posted by Nige321 (Post 10566747)

Got it : take advantage of Europe's money without compensation.


ORAC 10th Sep 2019 19:42


Honour your 40 odd billion committment
There is no commitment, check the WA, it is never mentioned.


The UK has commitments for budget items such as pensions etc, it has ongoing payments for continuing membership of certain programmes, if forced to leave these programmes some will require negotiation as to repayment of capital value etc.

There is disagreement over the total amount due, the division of capital assets and the duration, timing and extent of payments. Some suggest as low as £6-12B, others up to £39B, but these are still matters unsettled.

In such matters payments are made after agreement on the above. If the WA is. It signed, then smaller piecemeal agreements will be need to be negotiated and signed. I would imagine, in the fraught circumstances, this might take several years as they are used as bargaining chips by both sides.

Una Due Tfc 10th Sep 2019 20:24

[/QUOTE] Some suggest as low as £6-12B, others up to £39B, but these are still matters unsettled.
[/QUOTE]

I'm sure big Phil will iron this all out for you when it comes time to negotiate the trade agreement.

But I'm sure he won't try and screw you as badly as Trump.

ORAC 10th Sep 2019 20:49

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/d...plan-0l7hn85hh

DUP anger over new Brexit deal plan

Senior Unionist politicians are to meet Boris Johnson today amid claims that the prime minister is seeking a deal with Brussels that could split Northern Ireland from the rest of the United Kingdom.

The new EU trade commissioner, Phil Hogan, said that the penny was “finally dropping” in London that the only alternative to a whole UK backstop was to come up with specific arrangements for Ulster.

But any move to place a trade border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom is a red line for the Democratic Unionist Party, which vetoed the proposal when it was first mooted by the European Commission in 2017.

“Mr Johnson has made a proposal in the last few days talking about an all-Ireland food zone,” Mr Hogan told The Irish Times. He is the Irish farm commissioner and a known critic of Brexit. That is certainly a clear indication of divergence between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland and the EU, and the rest of the UK. This is the first time that this has been spoken about by a British prime minister where they are prepared to accept some level of divergence. If we can build on that we certainly might get closer to one another in terms of a possible outcome.”........

During talks in Brussels last week David Frost, the prime minister’s lead negotiator, discussed ways that a backstop could be “democratised” to ensure that Northern Ireland had a say in regulations that applied to it. “Any deal must involve the abolition of the anti-democratic backstop,” a British spokesman said.

The emphasis on “governance” of a backstop has reignited EU hopes that a backstop that is only specific to Northern Ireland is the government’s planned alternative. The question of an all-Ireland food standards zone is critical because farm and food products account for the bulk of cross-border trade in terms of volume. If a solution can be found it could unlock a wider deal........




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