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owen meaney 19th Nov 2016 20:47

As the dust settles on the USA presidential election, there are fears in Queensland that Pauline Hanson's One Nation party may become the major party in the next election.
Interesting times ahead.

chuboy 19th Nov 2016 22:05

I think how things pan out with Brexit and Trump will shape the future of One Nation and other populist parties.

dr dre 20th Nov 2016 05:35


As the dust settles on the USA presidential election, there are fears in Queensland that Pauline Hanson's One Nation party may become the major party in the next election.
The media is misinterpreting a poll for headlines.

No Cookies | The Courier Mail

They are only concentrating on the survey question about who would better address their concerns but ignoring the more relevant "which party would you vote for?" question.

The percentage of Queenslanders who would vote One Nation today according to that poll is at 12%. The percentage that voted for them at the last federal election was 9.5%, so after all the publicity and media mentions they have gained after the election they have barely increased their vote percentage. It's also interesting to see that basically the same proportion of people who voted for another Queenslander (Clive Palmer) in 2013 was exactly the same proportion who switched their votes to Hanson in 2016:

First preferences by Senate group - AEC Tally Room

It's also much less than the 22% they got at the 1998 QLD state election.

Queensland is the most conservative state, so it's no surprise that their polling there is the highest but overall they only got 4.5% of first preference Senate votes nationally. The Greens more than doubled that. Opinion polls taken since the election again show that despite all the publicity One Nation has been receiving their polling nationally is only at 6%. The Greens are on 10%. With Australia's compulsory voting her numbers won't move much more beyond her current totals.

Hempy 20th Nov 2016 06:41

Don't burst their bubble dr dre :=

owen meaney 20th Nov 2016 07:42

Who's bubble is that?

Hempy 20th Nov 2016 08:18

Ummm, One Nations...

owen meaney 20th Nov 2016 21:38

Ummmm, I'd check out what is happening here in West Aust before making any wild predictions.

parabellum 20th Nov 2016 23:32

Dr Dre - after the polls forecasts for both Brexit and Trump v. Clinton does anyone really believe anything the pollsters say any more?

dr dre 21st Nov 2016 01:03


after the polls forecasts for both Brexit and Trump v. Clinton does anyone really believe anything the pollsters say any more?
Some have claimed after both these polls that he pollsters were "way off" with their predictions. This may be more of a case of the media running with the polls as a firm forecast but in reality both races were tight and the finals polls weren't actually that far off the reality. In the presidential election the final polls showed about a 3% point lead overall to Clinton, in reality the final count is about a 1% lead to Clinton (she's received about a million more total votes than Trump) so the polls were only 2% off. And don't forget Trump wasn't running as a third party like Hanson, he was running as the nominee of the established Conservative party, polling shows that most people who voted for him were established Republican voters.

With brexit it was more skewed with a 6% difference but it was a national plebiscite with traditional party voting patterns not observed. And both brexit and Trump were non-compulsory votes.

Australian elections are compulsory, based on seats in a parliament and based on preferential and proportional representation rather than first past the post as Brexit and the US election were, so it does make it easier to predict. The final polls taken for the 2016 Australian election (held after the Brexit vote) showed a two party preferred lead to the coalition of 1%. The result was 0.7% TPP to the Coalition. It was shown in the polls that Hanson was likely to win a seat in Qld, and picked up the others because this was a full not half senate election.

As far as WA goes the polling is showing a TPP preferred lead swinging to Labor. If One Nation were to take a proportion of the vote they would take votes from the Coalition, it would be similar to 2001 when the distribution of preferences handed the election to Labor.

Hempy 21st Nov 2016 01:49


Originally Posted by owen meaney
Pauline Hanson's One Nation party may become the major party in the next election.


Originally Posted by owen meaney
before making any wild predictions.

Cheers, I needed a good giggle today :ok:

owen meaney 21st Nov 2016 06:07


As the dust settles on the USA presidential election, there are fears in Queensland that Pauline Hanson's One Nation party may become the major party in the next election.
Ummmm don't cherry pick a quote to start an argument.

owen meaney 21st Nov 2016 22:55

Noel Pearson accuses our ABC of being racist.
ABC rejects Noel Pearson's criticism organisation is 'miserable, racist' - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

Clare Prop 22nd Nov 2016 08:26

Too many people with too much invested in keeping the miserable status quo to listen to Noel or the others like Marcia Langton who made a very powerful speech along the same sort of lines last week.

As the old Yorkshire saying goes "Where there's muck there's brass"

If Triggs and co gave a hoot about human rights they'd be looking closer to home than some girl in Germany who feels offended or the poor lady who had to take years off work because someone said something a bit blunt on Facebook and deal with the real and horrific human rights abuses going on all over Australia to Australians every single day.

ian16th 22nd Nov 2016 20:21

Just a reminder.

Its only a game

Isn't it?

owen meaney 22nd Nov 2016 22:57


Marcia Langton who made a very powerful speech along the same sort of lines last week.
Hi Clare, could you link this please, can't find it at this time.

I was fairly disgusted with Marcia when she denigrated my Aunty - Bess Price. You may know her as a traditional full blood from the Walpiri clan, who is fairly outspoken about the gamon blackfellas from down south.

CoodaShooda 23rd Nov 2016 07:55

Owen
It was an address to the National Press Club last week.
She was joined by Josephine Cashman and Jacinta.
Link will be at abc.net.au.

TWT 23rd Nov 2016 08:17

National Press Club Address - Ending The Violence In Indigenous Communities : ABC iview

Clare Prop 23rd Nov 2016 14:10

Hi owen, I have heard Ms Langton say things I don't agree with for sure, however Bess Price is somebody I have a huge amount of respect for; if only more people would listen to what she has been saying for a long time. :ok:

owen meaney 24th Nov 2016 20:53

Thanks for the link guys,
The three women highlight the difference between the urban and the remote viewpoint on who is responsible for the violence on communities.
Langton and Josephine are still caught in the paradigm that it is the governments responsibility - Jacinta Price, from the Wilpiri Clan knows the truth.

Delivering the inaugural Helen Hughes lecture at the Centre for Independent Studies, Ms Price said all Australians must *acknowledge the “very real beliefs which exist within our own culture that support the use of violence” and accused “left-leaning service providers” of turning a blind eye. The Alice Springs councillor said it was “not good enough” that indigenous women were 35 times more likely to be hospitalised from violence perpetrated by *relatives than other Australian women.
And she identified a “city-based victim brigade” that was perpetuating “the victim message” that the biggest problem was indigenous people’s *suffering under the onslaught of colonialism and at the hands of white government.
Full article here:http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nati...3df202824aeee2

owen meaney 13th Feb 2017 19:47

The West Australian election is becoming very interesting, Liberals are preferencing One Nation in rural areas.


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