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Andu 2nd May 2012 01:10

Cookies must be enabled. | The Australian


JULIA Gillard has been abandoned by key backers in the NSW Right - the powerful faction instrumental in toppling Kevin Rudd - as explosive polling indicates the Prime Minister's voter approval has collapsed and Mr Rudd appears the government's only hope of avoiding electoral annihilation.

Senior members of the faction that blocked a Rudd return and ridiculed his failed leadership bid in February now concede that he is a plausible leadership alternative and that sentiment is strongly shifting in his favour.

The shift came as numerous Labor figures told The Australian they believed it was "inevitable" that Labor would dump the Prime Minister, but predicted the dispirited caucus would not act for several weeks amid faint hopes that next Tuesday's federal budget would restore Labor's fortunes.

Ms Gillard and her key supporters are digging in and urging despairing colleagues to hold their nerve as Mr Rudd and his supporters made clear he would not trigger a contest.

However, The Australian has obtained damaging exit polling suggesting Mr Rudd is Labor's only hope of preventing a rout in Queensland and that the state's voters deeply disapprove of the way Ms Gillard is doing her job.
That's it then. A Rudd return.... another reason to have my finger permanently poised on the mute button. The sound of his voice isn't as grating as Gillard's fingernail-on-blackboard atonal drone, but by God, with its schoolmaster-to-grade-one-children-talk-down-to-us-mere-mortals-who-aren't-nearly-as-clever-as-Kevin smugness, it comes damn close.

My only regret if Gillard gets ditched by the Sussex St heavies is that she'll be spared the humiliation of the total wipeout of Labor with her leading it and she and her apologists will be able to re-invent history and say she wasn't nearly as bad a Prime Minister as she undoubtedly is.

CoodaShooda 2nd May 2012 01:27


12 months into a new Liberal Federal government, we'll all be complaining
I reckon it will take us less than 12 months to find things to criticise in the potential Liberal/National government. Just look at the line-up of Ministers-in-waiting. :E

But I'm not sure it will have the vitriol of the current discussions, here and on the street. You can only maintain the rage for so long and labor's burning up a lot of the public's emotion.

The libs will probably benefit from a honeymoon period coupled with community apathy and exhaustion.

Whether this will be a good or bad thing, only history can show.

parabellum 2nd May 2012 02:26

I don't see the LNP renaging on the repeal of the Carbon Tax, imagine the furore, especially after "There will be no carbon tax under any government I lead" etc. etc.
Not sure about the mining tax, possibly reduced.

Definitely think he will stop the boats, Howard's policy did it. Don't think he will have a lot of patience with fiddling MPs or union leaders.

Buster Hyman 2nd May 2012 02:35


Look at the current Victorian Liberal State government
Well, playing Devils advocate, they made promises based on what they knew of the States economy at the time. Now, of course, this is true of all new Governments, the Vic Libs are having to decide which promises to keep. Looks like the surplus is their aim as it represents "good fiscal policy" & probably sticks closer to Liberal mantra than some of the other promises.

Oh, and if anyone thinks that I'm basing this on a biased political view, think again. I work in the Vic Public service & I know things I obviously cannot repeat...but I am very likely to be one of the 4,200 about to book an appointment at Centrelink!

Ansett all over again for me.

RJM 2nd May 2012 02:46

Joe Hildebrand from the Sydney Daily Telegraph gives a reasoned, if conservative view:

The ALP simply no longer knows what people are thinking. It is so consumed by parlour room politics – such as the “masterstroke” of recruiting Slipper – or patching together piecemeal and unpopular policies to appeal to tiny vested interests such as Wilkie and the Greens that it has completely lost sight of how these issues are playing out in the wider electorate. Then when they do hear the negative feedback they are so simultaneously arrogant and paranoid that they simply shoot the messenger.

Hildebrand explains the causes of this out-of-touchness:

What we are seeing here is a government run by a political class, a team of professional politicians whose life experience is limited almost entirely to working for either the party or a trade union. Prior to entering parliament Gillard’s whole career was spent as an industrial lawyer for activist law firm Slater and Gordon, which is effectively a union outpost… Likewise Swan was briefly an academic (lecturing in public administration) before becoming a political staffer from 1978 onwards and of course the wunderkind factional boss Bill Shorten was a union official and industrial lawyer before entering parliament. Again, there is nothing wrong with these jobs but they do not expose you to the full spectrum of political views. Indeed, in all of these positions anyone you encounter who disagrees with you is likely to be the enemy you’re fighting in the court or the parliament. This mindset still permeates today, and so the humble swinging voter who’s had enough is seen not as a disenchanted citizen who needs to be wooed back to Labor but either a dirty Lib or a victim of right-wing manipulation…

Pinky the pilot 2nd May 2012 03:09


but as you all know I'm a bit of a pinko at heart.
Worrals; I'm shocked to the core!:E Struth, someone bring me a malt scotch....quickly!! Er, no ice.:}

Briefly perused an article in today's Australian which quotes some 'senior Labor identity' as saying that a Rudd comeback is now a possibility. If they deem that the answer to Labor's problems then it must have been a damn stupid question!:ugh:


My only regret if Gillard gets ditched by the Sussex St heavies is that she'll be spared the humiliation of the total wipeout of Labor with her leading it and she and her apologists will be able to re-invent history and say she wasn't nearly as bad a Prime Minister as she undoubtedly is.
My sentiments also Andu. I would prefer that she stays in the position. The subsequent wipeout will be spectacular. As for Crean; would he want the poisoned chalice? Somehow I doubt it.

CoodaShooda 2nd May 2012 03:11


I am very likely to be one of the 4,200 about to book an appointment at Centrelink!
Sorry to hear that Buster. I'm wondering how the state can afford that many voluntary redundancies in the short term.

In the last 24 hours alone there've been articles on 4200 Victorian public servants, 750 Optus employees, 300 Qantas engineers and 200 briquette makers facing the chop.

Tell me again about how well the economy's doing.

CoodaShooda 2nd May 2012 03:14


As for Crean; would he want the poisoned chalice?
He'll be gone in August 2013, so why not go out with PM benefits? He just needs 12 months in the job to qualify.

Ovation 2nd May 2012 03:15

I have great difficulty in thinking that Rudd would accept the poison chalice knowing how despised the ALP brand is viewed, and while he has the ego to go ahead if tapped on the shoulder, surely he won't want to be remembered as a Labor PM that led them to an inglorious defeat at next election.

For those with short memories, some or most of Cabinet poured buckets of excretement on Rudd between his resignation as Foreign Minister and his tilt against the Red Witch for the top job. So if he did take on the mantle, he'd have to (and no doubt would) purge most of the cabinet and then be forced to fill the vacancies with inexperienced back-benchers even more incompetent than the rabble there now.

As well, there will be some within the ALP that hate him so much they might retire now and force a by-election just to spite Rudd, and there's not a lot of money on the ALP winning one unless they went into a safe seat with a buffer of 20% or so.

My money's still on Crean. Has credibility, maturity and some respect, and while unable to stop the train wreck, he would go out with some dignity.

hellsbrink 2nd May 2012 03:22

No offence, but surely the ALP aren't stupid enough to put Rudd back in the hot seat.

After all, this is the one kicked out by Gillard and her cronies for being so incompetent, it would be political suicide to put him back in as they would be saying she was WORSE, the other parties would have a field day....

RJM 2nd May 2012 03:37

I suggest a return by Rudd depends on Rudd. His ego is probably big enough to stop him, as hellsbrink says, but not so big that he imagines himself a messiah and would say yes. Not any more, anyway.

Ovation's probably right. A responsible adult is likely to take over, and lead Labor at least with some dignity into the political wilderness. That can only mean Crean.

Whatever happens, it may not be long now. People (other than Julia) seem to be assuming the brace position.

Pinky the pilot 2nd May 2012 03:55


He just needs 12 months in the job to qualify.
Good point Cooda but I somehow think that Labor don't have twelve months left.

Maybe a successful no confidence vote coming soon?:hmm:

We do indeed live in interesting times, do we not?

Buster Hyman 2nd May 2012 04:27


Sorry to hear that Buster. I'm wondering how the state can afford that many voluntary redundancies in the short term.

In the last 24 hours alone there've been articles on 4200 Victorian public servants, 750 Optus employees, 300 Qantas engineers and 200 briquette makers facing the chop.

Tell me again about how well the economy's doing.
Cheers Cooda...but as they say, been there, done that. Not ready to completely sponge off other tax payers yet, so will look around.

The problem with Victoria is that we were a manufacturing hub for the country. Better climates for some farming & better resources in other states, but manufacturing is not cost effective in Oz. (The only resource we have in any quantity is Brown Coal...but coal is a dirty word these days!)

It's easy to blame Unions for that with wage demands, but FTO's can also share the blame IMHO. We just aren't competitive with Chinese sweat shops.

Andu 2nd May 2012 05:07


In the last 24 hours alone there've been articles on 4200 Victorian public servants, 750 Optus employees, 300 Qantas engineers and 200 briquette makers facing the chop.
And widely reported on the ABC today, an independent report (dinks) saying that we are $244 a week better off today than we were in 1984 and are spending less on utilities (as a percentage of our pay) today than then.

sisemen 2nd May 2012 05:54

When little Miss Incompetent is booted out will she move to the back benches or will the embarrassment be such that she does a runner from Parliament thus forcing a by-election anyway?

If so it will be interesting to see if the Labor vote holds up enough to retain the seat. If it doesn't then we would be looking at a General Election brought on by not only the loss of a 'majority' but also the growing realisation that the Labor party does not have the confidence of the Australian public.

Wonder if Shorten's mother-in-law would step in if Labor refuse to go in those circumstances?

Worrals in the wilds 2nd May 2012 05:55


I work in the Vic Public service & I know things I obviously cannot repeat...but I am very likely to be one of the 4,200 about to book an appointment at Centrelink!
Good luck Buster. :sad:
Hope you pick up something else quickly, it's lots better and you can tell everyone it's the best thing that ever happened to you. :) If you're willing to move to the Pineapple State let me know and I'll sniff around for ya.


Worrals; I'm shocked to the core! Struth, someone bring me a malt scotch....quickly!! Er, no ice.
I care about koalas, battery hens and huggy stuff like that. I've been a member of several organizations that you probably find very Annoying. :}

Wasn't Rudd nutty enough the last time around? I don't think he is actually as popular in Qld as all that, it's more that people prefer him to Gillard, which isn't saying much. :ooh:

CoodaShooda 2nd May 2012 06:05


THE union boss Michael Williamson has allegedly been caught attempting to take a bag of documents out of the HSU while a police raid occurs on the premises…

The Daily Telegraph reported that the person is Mr Williamson. The documents he attempted to remove were seized by police
Oh dear. :O:E


I somehow think that Labor don't have twelve months left.
One can hope, Pinky but I can't see Bandt, Windsor or Oakeshott supporting a no confidence vote any time soon. How safe is Wilkie come election time?

Worrals in the wilds 2nd May 2012 10:19

Depends on what he's telling his electorate. :E
I know a bloke who knows him through the Army mafia (this is Australia after all, two degrees of separation is optimistic because we're spread pretty thinly :suspect:) and he says he's a decent man, albiet a bit of a lefty. I trust his opinion (except on restaurants, anything with chilli or noodles is symptomatic of the impending foreign invasion via the nation's commercial kitchens :}), but we'll see...:hmm:

Interesting thread re unions running on D&G, for those who aren't regular visitors. Warning: contains Worrals' rants. ;)
http://www.pprune.org/dg-p-reporting...et-qantas.html

galdian 2nd May 2012 10:30

When, not if, the leader of the opposition becomes the new PM (probably Abbott however a weeks a long time...blah....blah etc) the SMARTEST move would be to appoint a special consultant to treasury:

Peter Costello.

Like him or hate him he experienced a shitload over years as treasurer, saw movements every day and has an experience over time that at best is unusual, probably unprecedented would be a more accurate description.

Don't care how much he's paid (Oh ok I suppose over 10Mil a year would be a tad over) but would be an absolute bargain.

Yet again Labor come in with a surplus - and piss it up the wall in no time flat!
And Julia (allegedly) states the serfs still believe and trust in her.

Delusional - yet still viewing, and accumulating, "retired PM points" as her prime goal - as for the good of Australia..."fcuk that"!!

Sad that the "lucky country" is now in control of dickheads who think re-inventing a class war is the answer to all the ill's inherent, now, in Oz.

Regards all
Galdian

Worrals in the wilds 2nd May 2012 10:42


And Julia (allegedly) states the serfs still believe and trust in her.
I don't think Jools has met a true serf in her adult life, not properly 'come round for a drink and a movie, and check out the new deck I built myself with work surplus stuff' style met, anyway. Sure she's polite and well mannered to underlings :ok: (like Howard and very unlike Rudd, who's a hissy fit throwing stinker :yuk:) but I'd bet a pound of shite to a pinch of rice she's never knocked around in a pub shooting pool with a bunch of labourers / security guards / shop assistants / bartenders. I'll bet even more than that that she's never been a labourer, security guard, shop assistant or bartender and knocked around with the aforementioned at the toolbox meeting. Nor have any of the Caucus, unless they had a quick holiday job while at uni.

This doesn't make her a bad person, but still...

They're not bloody workers. They've never been workers and it's deadset irritating when they pretend otherwise. It's like Bligh when she turned up to a worksite in regulation hard hat, hi vis and slingback high heels. Don't trip, sweetheart. :*


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