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-   -   War in Australia (any Oz Politics): the Original (https://www.pprune.org/jet-blast/477678-war-australia-any-oz-politics-original.html)

dat581 4th Aug 2013 10:20

Sportingbet has the Libs at $1.27 and the ALP at $3.60. This has not changed all that much since a week or two after krudd got the PM job back. The worst the Libs blew out too was $1.40 and the ALP came in to about $3.00 at the best of krudd's sugar hit.

The betting odds are normally a very goog indication but not always.

500N 4th Aug 2013 10:25


I think you might be right.

I think Rudd has tried to micro manage it just a bit too far.

2 weeks time, as long as Abbott doesn't put his foot in it
will be the true view.

Buster Hyman 4th Aug 2013 11:15

In general I would agree with you here Buster but it speaks volumes that Paul Sheehan, who might be the most right-wing contributor at Fairfax, has penned this particular article.
That's called 'tokenism' chuboy, and I'm surprised you can't see through it.

parabellum 4th Aug 2013 13:12

Read in Friday's paper that the LNP have been doing their own polls in the marginal seats and the results are almost identical to when Gillard was still PM - we can but hope. Need to monitor the bookies, they are a pretty shrewd lot.

500N 4th Aug 2013 13:14

Abbott sounded a lot better in his speech today.

Much more polished IMHO.

Any comments ?

RJM 4th Aug 2013 13:27

Yep. Abbott's no fool.

Both Rudd and Gillard, in their way, are one trick ponies. Rudd has a knack for generating positive, if ephemeral, publicity. Gillard had a way of achieving consensus in a group, though often not enduring consensus. Neither is an insightful or competent manager, as, say Howard or Hawke were.

Abbott's management skills have yet to be proved beyond doubt, but at least he has shown himself to be of steadier character than either Rudd or Gillard.

What's more, Abbott is surrounded by a far greater depth of talent than Rudd or Gillard.

Buster Hyman 4th Aug 2013 13:42

Any comments ?
To be honest, I'm sick to death of the lot of them! I'm deliberately avoiding any articles & interviews now, and the only thing I'll look at is the local candidates.

I'm in just about the safest ALP seat in the country, so I need to check out the Independants here. Neither the incumbant ALP member, nor the Liberal candidate have replied to my enquiries to their offices, so :mad: them both!!!

Clare Prop 4th Aug 2013 14:09

I'm in the UK at the moment and last night was at a party with some old college mates.

I was asked a few times what kind of despot is Kevin Rudd if he is sending asylum seekers to rot in what are perceived as "concentration camps" for life.
I told them it's just an election stunt/bluff and probably won't ever happen in the way he says it will. But it's the first time friends from here have ever expressed strong opinions about Australian politics.

Also, a lot of people thought the Gillard and knitted kangaroo stunt was hilariously naff.

So now it seems we are perceived as naff nazis. :ugh::ugh:

sisemen 4th Aug 2013 14:59

It's great to be an international embarrassment. Thanks Kevvy. Hopefully your return is going to be short in duration.

500N 4th Aug 2013 22:35

Great article in The Age today.

Don't vote for the underachieving Greens.
The 'third force' missed its chance to make a difference.

Underachieving Greens can do without your vote

At the last federal election, 1.6 million voters gave the Australian Greens a go at being more than a party of protest. The pundits talked big, touting the Greens as the new ''third force'' of Australian politics. Three years on, has the party proved deserving of such a role?
The 2010 election gave the Greens a box seat in a hung Parliament. The party doubled its representation to 10 MPs, shared the balance of power in both houses of Parliament, and ultimately shared government with Labor for most of this term. A minor party has not wielded so much power in many decades.
With all this political muscle, what has the party achieved? On climate, the Greens finally voted to implement a scheme that is strikingly similar to the one they rejected in 2009. On refugees, Australia's policies have grown dramatically more draconian and the Greens have been unable to do anything about it.
These are the Greens' areas of passion. On broader policy - the economy, health and education - there is scant evidence of Greens influence.

and more.

I have said all along that the Greens need to broaden the policies they have
to be viable and this just shows that.

"Asylum seeker policy illustrates: the Greens' unwillingness to contemplate offshore processing has dealt them out of the policy discussions. At times, the party's rhetoric has seemed more suited to the student representative council than the nation's Parliament."

As said above, because they won't swallow "reality" they dial themselves OUT of the discussions which doesn't get them anywhere.

So glad to see. I hope they lose a lot of seats at this election and get wiped out as a political force.

Andu 4th Aug 2013 23:01

On Sept 7th, I hope I'll not be the only voter to take the time to do what I did in the 2010 election - start at the bottom box with the Greens candidate, Labor next, then work my way to the top of the form.

sadly, there'll still be quite a few voters who will "protest" against the inept Labor misrule of the last six years by voting for the Greens - the equivalent of amputating your leg at the hip to fix an ingrown toenail.

Worrals in the wilds 4th Aug 2013 23:01

Interesting article, 500N. Maybe we all attribute too much importance to the Greens. However, I think they unduly influenced a lot of Labor policy over the past term, making it much more lefty than was palatable to the average Labor voter.

Sportingbet has the Libs at $1.27 and the ALP at $3.60.
IME the online bookies are usually on the money :8. It will be interesting to see if their odds move much over the coming weeks.

500N 4th Aug 2013 23:04

I think the Greens did influence policy, for sure but they always have.

In Vic at the next state election, The Libs are going to go for the Greens
once more and try to get back the seat they won.

Being Green is all well and good when things are going well but when
the economy is a bit weak, not so good IMHO.

RJM 4th Aug 2013 23:46

The best thing about the switch to Rudd is that we can vote Labor out a week earlier than we could have under Gillard!

Andu 5th Aug 2013 00:32

I think damn near everyone agrees that Labor under Gillard did not have to ally themselves so closely with the Greens, because there was no way the Greens would ever have allied themselves with the Coalition.

Gillard was - is - at heart, an ultra Leftist (certainly a Fabian, some would say a Communist), right back from her student days, and I don't believe she ever changed. She was quite happy to see all the crazy Leftie policies enacted that the Greens 'forced' upon Labor and to be able to blame the Greens for them.

Rudd is so dreadful he's making some look back on Gillard a little kindly. As bad as he is, we owe it to ourselves to constantly remind ourselves how incredibly bad Gillard was as well. It's rare to see two alternative leaders of the one Party that are so incredibly bad. This is perhaps a sad indictment on what Labor has become.

RJM 5th Aug 2013 01:00

Well said, Andu. And ultimately our system works best with a strong Opposition.

Lately, our government has been like the traffic in Tehran - one way until the pressure builds up for a change to one way in the other direction. The Libs refill the coffers until we're all comfortable then Labor entices enough votes with promises of big spending... then we're broke and unhappy and re-elect the Libs...

It's not much of a way to run a country.

500N 5th Aug 2013 01:05

"And ultimately our system works best with a strong Opposition. "

And that has been the problem.

We need a 5 - 15 majority in the lower house.

RJM 5th Aug 2013 01:30

From Sinclair Davidson's "Catallaxy Files":

Catallaxy Files | Australia's leading libertarian and centre-right blog

Who do you trust?
Posted on August 4, 2013 by Sinclair Davidson

Here is what John Howard said at the 2004 election:

When I called the election I asked a series of questions and they are as relevant today as they were then. I said who do you better trust to keep living standards high and the economy strong? Who do you better trust to keep your interest rates low? Who do you better trust to lead Australia in the fight against the peril of international terrorism? Who do you better trust to keep the budget strong and in surplus so that we can better afford to spend more on health and education and defence.

Notice he is talking about specifics. Now compare with Kevin Rudd today – he is talking about China and … stuff.

This election will be about who the Australian people trust to best lead them through the difficult new economic challenges which now lie ahead. New challenges brought about by the end of the China resources boom.
New challenges also that have to be confronted. The boom of course has fuelled so much of our nation’s wealth. That boom is over. This election will also be about who the Australian people trust to steer our economy through the great economic transition that therefore lies ahead. If as a nation we fail to manage this transition well, it will hurt the jobs and living standards of all Australians. This election will be about who the Australian people best judge to get the balance right.

Notice that is all about the (alleged) end of the China boom.

Worrals in the wilds 5th Aug 2013 04:24

I said who do you better trust to keep living standards high...
And his government betrayed millions of voters covered by EBAs when they introduced Work Choices. Prior to that, many of those workers (including me) had voted Liberal for several federal elections. Howard betrayed that trust and the rest of the front bench let him. I think that was a big factor in Labor's past two victories, particularly in 2007.

The second trust they betrayed was wrt the GST and their inference that all the other taxes would (like people who saw the Boojum :}) just 'softly and silently vanish away' :suspect:. Of course they didn't, and the GST just got whacked on top. :ugh:

For all Labor's ineptitude (and as a nominal supporter, just when you think they can't get worse they suprise you again :rolleyes:)the ghost of Work Choices is still floating around out there, helped along by the Australian Business Council, Gina, the banks and all the other usual suspects from the Big Greed brigade. If the Libs stuck with small business issues and the economy I think they'd regain the level of support they had during Howard's first couple of terms. Times are tough for many small businesses, and some incentives and red tape reduction would be good for that sector. Many people went along with that last time they voted for Howard.

However, every time their Chairmans Club cronies suggest forced individual contracts, reducing wages (not corporate bonuses of course, that would be silly :yuk:) 15% GST on everything and IR/WHS legislation that's straight out of 19th Century Britain, they scare a few more of us 'ordinary' people away from the Liberals, particularly when Abbott never says anything remotely believable that refutes their suggestions.

When companies like the big banks and the two major food retailers are also telling their workers it's 'tough times' (yeah right, particularly when your company controls 50% of the grocery, grog and gambling market :ugh::ugh:) big business IR credibility drops even further with the public. It's patently obvious that these companies would sell slave-produced canned dog if they thought they could 1. get away with it and 2. make a profit 'for the shareholders.' And their own pockets of course...

I think the Libs will win this one, but personally I hope Labor at least retains the Senate. Nor will I vote Liberal federally again for a very long time, if ever. Just my 2.2c (incl GST).

7x7 5th Aug 2013 05:28

One of the regular posters on the Pickering site posted this earlier today. If it's true, it will be yet another time bomb set to go off in the face of the incoming government - and might explain why Labor is planning to build two very large detention camps (Darwin and Singleton) despite their promise that no one arriving by boat will be settled in Australia.

Of course, those new camps might be for the tens of thousands who got here before that new rule was announced.

The REASON why Rudd called the election was that yesterday he got news that the PNG Parliament are putting thru A VOTE OF NO CONFIDENCE For O'Neil. But here's the crunch. It will vote on kicking O'Neil out on 10Th SEPTEMBER!!!! Rudd needed to go yesterday because an election ONE WEEK LATER would see the Manus Island deal the 2 stitched up STOPPED. The PNG MPs are hostile that O'Neil has done this and it will probably cost ONeil his position. Rudd was desperate to go to G20 in Russia. Not gunna happen now. Looks like Manus won't go ahead either. Can you imagine what the Australian voters are going to say when this gets out? What a deceiving mongrel he is.

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