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What happens if the bad guys win this time?

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What happens if the bad guys win this time?

Old 22nd Jun 2022, 13:55
  #141 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by MechEngr View Post
Did the agreement require Ukraine to remain pro-Russian or were they allowed to look after their own interests?

The fighting in Ukraine had been on the decline. I would guess fewer Ukrainians were willing to put up with Russian infiltration troops.

When I see schools, houses, churches, hospitals, apartments, museums specifically targeted along with targeting locations where civilians are trying to flee and avoid being murdered in those "Russian" areas of Ukraine, then it's clear Putin is not on the "Russian" side.

Still no explanation of how a repressed minority got a hold of a Russian SAM system with Russian soldiers manning it to shoot down civilian aircraft over Ukraine. Russians could have shot down Ukraine military flights from within Russia; it seemed important to make a false-flag operation.
I think the agreement assumed rational behavior by the players involved.
I don't see anything rational in a national government deciding that a 30% minority of the population should be second class citizens, but that was the logical consequence of the 'we have to get rid of the Russians' viewpoint directly expressed by Yulia Timoshenko, a pre Maidan political leader. In that context, I'd note that Ukraine does not have a government of national unity in this current crisis, but rather has outlawed the Russian speaking representations which made up the second largest party in their parliament. National reconciliation is clearly very far down in the agenda.
As to the Buk SAM missiles, they were (are?) part of the Ukrainian army weapons structure, so when the Donbas part of the army rebelled, they also had a Buk inventory..

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Old 22nd Jun 2022, 14:10
  #142 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by MechEngr View Post
The Iranians were terrified having been notified by the reckless and random Trump that at any minute he would obliterate Iran for no reason.
You may want to leave your TDS in the US politics thread; the screw up was eventually owned up to by the Iranian government. But it took a while to admit what was about as obvious as a dog's bollocks. (We had a pretty good thread on that tragedy in R&N).
Had the Iranians simply invited him to inspect a new Trump Tehran Hotel site, he would have changed his mind.
Nothing to do with the accidental shoot down, but funny from where I sit.
Originally Posted by MechEngr View Post
The Russians didn't care who they shot down. I doubt they were gunning for a Malaysian plane but the ADS-B would have told them who it was.
That presumes that they chose to both use that and integrate that info into their Air Defense approach. I am not convinced that they had/did, and that takes us back to Hanlon's Razor.
Originally Posted by MechEngr View Post
They didn't care because they would always blame Ukraine. That was the only reason to move a few miles over the border to shoot from. They had no element of surprise, no worries of imminent annihilation. Just shooting at whatever went overhead and ready to scoot.
I think that you are right in terms of 'well, we can blame Ukraine' as their post hoc assessment. And man, the Russians (certainly as one goes up the chain of command) leaned into that.

And to answer the OP: maybe the original question is moot, since the world is ending.

Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 22nd Jun 2022 at 14:55.
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Old 23rd Jun 2022, 00:28
  #143 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose View Post
But the funding for those contructions come from foreign revenue earnings, which drives the building of new homes and offices for those moving to the cities to build items for the west.
I don't think that is the case, China has astonishingly high savings rates from a pretty substantial domestic economy. Export surpluses are icing, but not the cake.
That said, they do have a massive real estate bubble, weird for country with way below replacement fertility rates. Who needs all the buildings they are putting up?
It may be that their Belt and Road international infrastructure development initiatives are spurred at least in part by their need to find work for their oversized construction sector.
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Old 23rd Jun 2022, 01:12
  #144 (permalink)  
 
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I think this video will explain it.
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Old 23rd Jun 2022, 01:41
  #145 (permalink)  
 
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Iran had rushed their SAM site into position after Trump made a threat.

"WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump said Friday he abruptly called off the swiftly planned military strikes on Iran because the likely deaths of 150 Iranians would have been so out of proportion to the shootdown of an unmanned American surveillance drone. He also indicated he still hopes for talks with Iranian leaders rather than any escalation of military conflict.“I am in no hurry,” he wrote on Twitter, adding that increasingly severe sanctions meant to push Iran to the nuclear negotiating table are “biting” the Iranian economy.

The aborted attack was a stark reminder of the potential for the escalating tensions of the past year between the U.S. and Iran to lead to full-scale conflict, even as the president repeatedly insists he does not want war and wants to negotiate with the Islamic Republic over its nuclear program."

https://www.bostonherald.com/2019/06...was-withdrawn/

Perhaps that detail was forgotten?

You should see who else bought Trump's favor by putting his name on their projects. He's easily bought. However, he never negotiated with Iran. They don't suffer fools or liars.

Trump followed up by killing Major General Qasem Soleimani and then Iran made a retaliatory strike - believing Trump would do what he had previously promised, their troops were on edge and f'd up.

Last edited by MechEngr; 23rd Jun 2022 at 02:19.
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Old 23rd Jun 2022, 13:55
  #146 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by MechEngr View Post
Iran had rushed their SAM site into position after Trump made a threat.... and f'd up.
The US and Iran have had a contentious relationship for over 40 years, some times hotter and some times not hotter. Blaming Trump for that shoot down is nonsense. That tensions at that time were elevated is certainly true. That does not excuse the eff up, nor does it create in Trump agency for that mistake.
I am not sure how familiar you are with air defense, and its associated command and control.
The mistake they made is the kind of fundamental error that can result in a 'blue on blue' shoot down of a friendly aircraft during an actual conflict when the pucker factor is elevated day after day.
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Old 30th Jun 2022, 11:12
  #147 (permalink)  
 
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China being undemocratic, economical successful & really helping out the 3rd world, continuous to disrupt the way we, the good guys, are programmed.

I think in the long term w'll being looked back at second hald 20th century, until now, as post WW2.

The results: https://qph.fs.quoracdn.net/main-qim...6d789aabf3a-lq

China & Russia were attacked, millions of innocents slaughtered in brutal ways, they fought back at the cost of millions of lives and overcame.
We downplayed , ignored for 50 years, often blaming the victims themselves. .

Then we claimed victory, wrote history, told them how to behave & ran the show (incl Germany, Japan).

Deep frustrations. Listening to Putin, it's still deep in the genes, 2 generations further. But also China these days.
They never attacked / liberated other countries, building empires, protecting their interests like us.

Not saying they are good or we are bad, but history might look back more objectively than the average block buster movie.
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Old 30th Jun 2022, 11:31
  #148 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by keesje View Post
They [Russia] never attacked / liberated other countries, building empires, protecting their interests like us.

.
Poles, Czechs, Finns and much of Eastern Europe might quibble with that very simplified version of recent European history.
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Old 30th Jun 2022, 13:02
  #149 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by keesje View Post
.
They never attacked / liberated other countries, building empires, protecting their interests like us.
ah, the eastern truth.
Since the11th century the Russians have attacked Finland twice a century raping and stealing, everyone and everything. From 18th century there is documentation how the Russian soldiers threw newborns to heated ovens in the current Oulu area in Finland.

In 1939 Stalins plan was to overtake Finland and have a victory parade in Helsinki in two weeks. The strategy was to have two main attack routes, southern via Viipuri to Helsinki and the northern via Raatteentie to Oulu. The northern army was destroyed entirely bu Finns, and southern got stuck.

in the 1930's Russians starved the Ukrainians to death, millions died of hunger.

1939 Russians invaded Poland and shot 10000 Polish officers in Katyn. Civilians were murdered, others transported to Siberia, most never returned.

the list goes on and on. Never trust a Russian. From Finnish point of view: for a thousand years Russians have attacked Finland twice per century. Why would this century be an exception?
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Old 30th Jun 2022, 17:01
  #150 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by keesje View Post
China being undemocratic, economical successful & really helping out the 3rd world, continuous to disrupt the way we, the good guys, are programmed.
I think in the long term w'll being looked back at second hald 20th century, until now, as post WW2.
The results: https://qph.fs.quoracdn.net/main-qim...6d789aabf3a-lq
China & Russia were attacked, millions of innocents slaughtered in brutal ways, they fought back at the cost of millions of lives and overcame.
We downplayed, ignored for 50 years, often blaming the victims themselves. .
Then we claimed victory, wrote history, told them how to behave & ran the show (incl Germany, Japan).

Deep frustrations. Listening to Putin, it's still deep in the genes, 2 generations further. But also China these days.
Are you familiar with their line of rhetoric (China's) as regards the century of humiliation? It is as embedded as Putin's regarding Russia's wariness / distrust of The West.
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Old 4th Jul 2022, 08:55
  #151 (permalink)  
 
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I distrust the West..

are we still the good guys??
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Old 6th Jul 2022, 19:50
  #152 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by HamfistsNZ View Post
I distrust the West..

are we still the good guys??
Looking at what is happening in the UK and USA not to mention over the last 15-20 years I'm not sure?
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Old 7th Jul 2022, 03:35
  #153 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Beamr View Post
ah, the eastern truth.
Since the11th century the Russians have attacked Finland twice a century raping and stealing, everyone and everything. From 18th century there is documentation how the Russian soldiers threw newborns to heated ovens in the current Oulu area in Finland.

In 1939 Stalins plan was to overtake Finland and have a victory parade in Helsinki in two weeks. The strategy was to have two main attack routes, southern via Viipuri to Helsinki and the northern via Raatteentie to Oulu. The northern army was destroyed entirely bu Finns, and southern got stuck.

in the 1930's Russians starved the Ukrainians to death, millions died of hunger.

1939 Russians invaded Poland and shot 10000 Polish officers in Katyn. Civilians were murdered, others transported to Siberia, most never returned.

the list goes on and on. Never trust a Russian. From Finnish point of view: for a thousand years Russians have attacked Finland twice per century. Why would this century be an exception?
Yet Finland is the only country afaik which has a large statue honoring Czar Alexander 2, the man who restored a measure of Finnish autonomy along with abolishing serfdom in Russia.
Finland and Russia have both benefited from mutual commerce, as long as political independence was maintained.
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