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What happens if the bad guys win this time?

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What happens if the bad guys win this time?

Old 12th Jun 2022, 11:20
  #21 (permalink)  
 
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The good guys are the nations which have a system where the citizens can vote-out the people in charge of politics.

Systems who don't have that always end up in dead ends development wise, and eventually crash with huge sufferings amongst ordinary people. Reason is human nature, extremely few humans have the ability to not become egoistic when not being accuntable to anyone. Additionally such systems waste a huge amount of resources in controlling their people and kill sensible local decision making on the spot, making the whole system inefficient.

Let us not get carried away by the autocratic singsang relativising everything (as displayed by dr dre - what a shame to misuse the name of a great artist) the west has achieved thanks to the system of voting-out politicians and all that comes with it: freedom of political opinion and independant justice.

Unfortunately, we now also have sharks in the west who attack the very fundamental thing of the process of voting-out politicians, all with the egoistic motive of personal gain. This is our problem, not some useless cheap shit produced in China.
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Old 12th Jun 2022, 11:32
  #22 (permalink)  
 
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Well I would start by reading, Churchills books are worth it, there are a lot of them.
Seven Pillars of Wisdom by T.E Lawrence is also a worthwhile read.

More modern day, Mikhail Gorbachev memoirs, Bob Woodwards books on US Presidents, including Donald.
Mary Trumps books on her Uncle.
But for me to really see how bad things are at this moment in time and why we are in this position, two must reads are Red Notice and Freezing Order, both by Bil Browder.
Of course if you are a fan of Putin, I would refrain from reading the last two.

If reading is too much:


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Old 12th Jun 2022, 11:34
  #23 (permalink)  
 
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Meanwhile, on planet earth, we do have a chinese secretary of defense, warning other countries not to support "the idea of Taiwans independence".

And "the West" still sleeps and makes China produce the key components that would be required should a real conflict ensue.

What we really need is a Churchill or a Roosevelt, people able and wanting to stand up to totalitarian regimes. Why is there not a no fly zone over Ukraine, why is there no Navy build up in the Black Sea to protect Ukraines exports, why is there not a combined effort of the free world to protect Taiwan right now ? (etcetc)

As a German I´m thankful to the Brits, Mericans and Russians to have ended Hitlers regime. 75years + of peace in Europa were really good. Now apparently, we have to do more than just be outraged to get that peace back.

Last edited by His dudeness; 12th Jun 2022 at 13:19.
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Old 12th Jun 2022, 11:51
  #24 (permalink)  
 
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Good points, his dudeness.

We need a de-globalization from authocratic countries. We need to stop chinese students studying at western universities - with the exception of the topic of democracy, freedom of speech, separation of the different powers of a state, etc., but there I don't see many coming from China to study the subject.

The west has to limit its creativity, it technological ideas, etc to itself again, as it used to be in the cold war.
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Old 12th Jun 2022, 12:11
  #25 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by 1201alarm View Post
The good guys are the nations which have a system where the citizens can vote-out the people in charge of politics.
So after the US carpet bombed Laos relentlessly for almost 10 years dropping more ordinance on a tiny strip of South East Asian land than they did in the entirety of WW2 to the point they are still to this day uncovering unexploded bombs that can be excused because the US people voted in and out two leaders and changed their Congress several times during that bombing campaign? I'm sure the Lao people appreciated that

Of course a democratic system is better than an authoritarian system, no one will argue that, but if democracies are just going to use the fact they are democracies to excuse whatever terrible actions they perpetrate against weaker nations then don't be surprised when those non western nations (89% of the world's population) drift towards what they see as a benign authoritarian nation who provides them with tangible benefits. This is the lesson the the West should be learning, not "we're always right".
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Old 12th Jun 2022, 12:52
  #26 (permalink)  
 
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There are no bad guys. Just other guys.
Most of the time at least...
The good guys are the nations which have a system where the citizens can vote-out the people in charge of politics.
If you study closely how elections work across the globe, there are very few good guys then !
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Old 12th Jun 2022, 13:30
  #27 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by dr dre View Post
So after the US carpet bombed Laos relentlessly for almost 10 years dropping more ordinance on a tiny strip of South East Asian land than they did in the entirety of WW2 to the point they are still to this day uncovering unexploded bombs that can be excused because the US people voted in and out two leaders and changed their Congress several times during that bombing campaign?
That was 50+ years ago. The other strategy, NOTABLY used afterwards - being "friends" with a$$clowns like Saddam Hussein did not work well either.

I find it very easy to criticize the US, sure, but who spend more money, effort and blood to try to make the world a better place ? And yes, often they failed. Nevertheless, I would not like to experiment with the likes like todays Russian, Chinese or North Korean governments and their ways. I´m always in with critizism of politicians. OTOH I think it would be simply impossible to please everyone and every legitimate interest in conflicts that arise almost daily. The ONLY solutin for that would be a huge decrease in population. If there is one person on every continent, they might get along. MIGHT.

Churchill said something very true about democracy:
‘Many forms of Government have been tried, and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.…’
So whats your take on that then ?
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Old 12th Jun 2022, 13:40
  #28 (permalink)  
 
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dr dre, you see the difference? You provide it yourself. Laos was how many decades ago? In contrary to authoritarian countries the US society actually heavily debated these wars, and changed their approach, including a lot of political fallout in the sense of changed voting behaviour. So your argument of "but if democracies are just going to use the fact they are democracies to excuse whatever terrible actions they perpetrate against weaker nations" is pure whataboutism, since never did democracies just do that.

Western democracies are the good guys because democracy makes for much more good guy politics overall. Provens a millions times in the last 200 years. As simple as that.

At the end these rhetorical remarks of "it is not that clear that we in the west are the good guys" are nothing else than an unjustified ignorance of the complete unappropriateness of authoritarian rule and its bad results for the ruled people.

We can debate the faults of the west, sure, and it is done a millions times every day in all the western countries.

And we can debate how to deal with evil and unchecked ruling classes in authoritarian countries that threaten their neighbours.

But never should we use the cases of western imperfections to undermine the principle of standing up for freedom and democracy against authoritarian countries.

And the argument of the west only being 11% has no merit either: your cited 89% do not have a chance to express what they want, they can just keep their heads down and try to survive. So I do not think we can make the case that they do not want it differently. Huge investments in people supression etc. in authoritarian countries suggest otherwise, and also the migration gradient.

CVividasku, tell me more? We know that there are a lot of authoritarian countries, however most of the worlds economical power is in countries where voting-out functions properly. The G7 is nearly 50% of worldwide economics, and they are all democracies with a lively political competition.
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Old 12th Jun 2022, 13:44
  #29 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by His dudeness View Post

So whats your take on that then ?
Churchill was most notably famous 80 years ago......

If you think what the US did in the 60s and 70s in Laos was too far back to be relevant then what about Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Somalia, Iran etc in the last 20 years.......

Or stick with Laos then, current times. The US did devastate the country 60 years ago, but they could have made amends for it by being Laos’ benefactor now. Now why didn’t the US build Laos their high speed railway, or other infrastructure assets that would deliver tangible benefits for the country? Why didn’t they offer better infrastructure and services to Laos so the Lao people would choose them over China?

So many argue that “the west is best because we are democratic, end of argument, so poorer and weaker nations have no choice but to choose us”. It may be for you but in order to exert influence around the globe and get the rest of the world on your side you have to deliver tangible benefits. Sorry to say it but China is doing a better job of it at the moment, and are providing more than Churchill quotes

Last edited by dr dre; 12th Jun 2022 at 14:06.
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Old 12th Jun 2022, 13:54
  #30 (permalink)  
 
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The OP poses a vacuous question using nebulous, ill defined terms. And you all bit. Too easy.

For the OP:
So what will happen if the bad guys win this time?
Define what you mean by "win" - RL isn't a computer game.
If Russia and China dominates what can we expect over the next 10, 20, 30 years?
Dominates at what?
China is already an economic power house. Russia isn't in their league.
If China becomes a global hegemon, they are adept at using leverage so you can expect the ripple effect to impact your life.
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Old 12th Jun 2022, 14:01
  #31 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by etudiant View Post
Dream on, we cannot recreate our industrial infrastructure demolished over several decades within a year or two. We don't have the tools to make the tools, starting with the educational base.
It's worse than that I'm afraid. Even if we did, unless you want to start paying Western workers Chinese wages, the products they create will be a lot more expensive than the ones they are currently buying .How do you think that will be received?
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Old 12th Jun 2022, 14:05
  #32 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by 1201alarm View Post
The good guys are the nations which have a system where the citizens can vote-out the people in charge of politics.
And which nations are those then?

In the US it's not the people who vote for their president and other races are controlled largely by electoral maps ... and who draws those maps?

In the UK there's the ridiculous FPTP system so that a Prime Minister (also If I have it correct, not elected by the people) can be put in office with far less than a majority of the votes cast
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Old 12th Jun 2022, 14:18
  #33 (permalink)  
 
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And your point is? Let's go russian style? Same 3 guys for 30 years? Or what is your idea of democracy? Three french presidents at the same time? So every group of at least 30% votes get one president? This already exists, it is called parliament. There can only be one president, and it is usually the guy from the political party with the most votes.

All you guys should really live in China or Russia for ten years, criticise the system there like you do it here, and then see what happens with you.

But probably you guys are doing exactly that, living in St. Petersburg and working in a russian troll factory. Because I don't know anybody in my real life which has such absurd ideas.
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Old 12th Jun 2022, 14:19
  #34 (permalink)  
 
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Now why didn’t the US build Laos their high speed railway, or other infrastructure assets that would deliver tangible benefits for the country?
Maybe because 'the US' would not be welcome ? As a result of a certain bombing ?
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Old 12th Jun 2022, 14:19
  #35 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 View Post
The OP poses a vacuous question using nebulous, ill defined terms. And you all bit. Too easy.

For the OP:

Define what you mean by "win" - RL isn't a computer game.
Dominates at what?
China is already an economic power house. Russia isn't in their league.
If China becomes a global hegemon, they are adept at using leverage so you can expect the ripple effect to impact your life.
Russia captures the whole of Ukraine and makes it part of Russia.
China invades Taiwan.
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Old 12th Jun 2022, 14:21
  #36 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sue Vêtements View Post
In the US it's not the people who vote for their president and other races are controlled largely by electoral maps ... and who draws those maps?
I guess you weren't paying attention in November of 2020. Someone got too few votes to stay in so he and his team were replaced. Every two (representative), four (president), or six (Senator) you can be relieved by the voters. ( I won't get into the cycles for state and local office, just at the federal level).
In the UK there's the ridiculous FPTP system so that a Prime Minister (also If I have it correct, not elected by the people) can be put in office with far less than a majority of the votes cast
A vote of no confidence, though, can arise at any time, can't it?
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Old 12th Jun 2022, 14:23
  #37 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by dr dre View Post
and are providing more than Churchill quotes
Jup, you´ll get a Mao qoute instead. BIG difference.

You did not answer the question... I wonder why....
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Old 12th Jun 2022, 14:23
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Originally Posted by uxb99 View Post
Russia captures the whole of Ukraine and makes it part of Russia.
China invades Taiwan.
1. Why do you assume that Russia takes over Ukraine? That war is still in progress.
2. Why do you think that the second follows the first?
3. Russian took over Crimea in 2014 and China didn't then invade Taiwan.
Maybe it would be easier if you went back to playing your video games.
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Old 12th Jun 2022, 14:29
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Lonewolf, to take over Ukraine was obviously russias goal. They failed so far because their military just sucks. The only thing they have is numbers, and they need all of these now to just be able to slowly advance in eastern Ukraine.

But Russian speech has been very clear, they clearly deny any notion of Ukraine being an independent nation. Ukraine is supposed to be "de-nazified". How absurd, but we still have a lot of online posters (probably paid by Russia) deflecting from that.

Here is just another very clear display of russias intentions:
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/10/e...cmd/index.html
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Old 12th Jun 2022, 14:41
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Originally Posted by 1201alarm View Post
Lonewolf, to take over Ukraine was obviously russias goal. They failed so far because their military just sucks.
And? What has that to do with my post? (In other words, "No shiznit, Sherlock").

Had their gambit of a quick move to take Kiev worked (had their combined arms efforts been better coordinated, had their ground forces been able to maintain tempo) this would be a very different discussion as the aim of putting a puppet/compliant government into Kiev to replace the current one seems to have been behind that piece of the plan. The attempt at a decapitation strike early (hitting C2 nodes, power grid, etc) was (from a methodology standpoint) right out of the same play book that the West uses. They didn't get the execution right on that, or, they made some incorrect assessments of their opponent, or both. (Yes, no plan remains intact once first contact is made).

But that isn't how this is playing out, and rather than being left high and dry Ukraine has gotten a little help from their friends. They'd prefer more, obviously.

Until the fighting stops, which is not likely in the near term, we don't know how much of Ukraine that Russia has tried to bite off will remain in Russian hands. I suspect that their initial position for any cease fire is that the 'land bridge to Crimea' remains in their hands ... but that's a ways off. (How long did it take to get the lines drawn on the Korean Peninsula, and the DMZ established? I suspect that something similar will be involved in this case as well).

The gradual waking of "The West" from their complacency has happened. And people in the Asia Pacific region are taking notice. The OP is basing a question on an alternate reality.

PS: an amphibious landing is a heck of a lot harder than a land operation. 6 June wasn't that long ago, was it? Need a refresher?
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