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Will China invade Russia?

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Will China invade Russia?

Old 5th Jun 2022, 17:32
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Will China invade Russia?

I have read some speculation about the possibility of China invading a weakened Russia Post an economic and military collapse similar to the end of the cold War.
Clearly the west will not want a new Russia to develop in the way that we've seen since the cold war. Therefore the west will seek to exert its influence to bring Russia into line with the west. This of course is going to antagonise China who will not want to see any Eastern expansion of NATO allied forces.
In the power vacuum post Putin, given the fears the Chinese may have as well as the obvious power grab, is it not likely that the Chinese would invade Russia?

I understand that Russia would always pose a nuclear threat but given the power vacuum, the Chinese may consider this risk to be minimal.
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Old 5th Jun 2022, 18:38
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Will China invade Russia?

....no.

Next question..
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Old 5th Jun 2022, 19:01
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Or to put it another way - what would it achieve?
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Old 5th Jun 2022, 20:12
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If China invades a Russia that is significantly weakened in terms of conventional warfighting ability (as it currently is) then it will go nuclear very quickly.

China know this

I'd not rule out a wee border skirmish here and there perhaps (but even that would surprise me) but anything more than that is end-of-the-world territory and whatever else the Chinese might be they are not stupid.
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Old 6th Jun 2022, 02:11
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Well they've already committed an unprovoked and totally illegal act of hostility on an RAAF P8 quietly going about its business in international air space so anything's possible.

https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/ne...0b20a28b6ae9e6
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Old 6th Jun 2022, 02:24
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Reminds me of an old joke.

Putin is woken early one morning by his manservant.
”Your Lordship! Wake up!”
”What is it now?”
“Well, there’s good news and bad news.”
”Just what I need! (Sigh…) So, give me the bad news first.”
”It’s the Chinese. They have landed on the far side of the moon and they are drawing a dotted line around it.”
”So what’s the good news?”
”It’s all of them.”
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Old 6th Jun 2022, 06:37
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Originally Posted by FullOppositeRudder View Post
Well they've already committed an unprovoked and totally illegal act of hostility on an RAAF P8 quietly going about its business in international air space so anything's possible.

https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/ne...0b20a28b6ae9e6
Non-paywalled link: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-61696973
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Old 6th Jun 2022, 06:45
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Originally Posted by hobbit1983 View Post
Will China invade Russia?

....no.

Next question..
Just ask Mongolia
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Old 6th Jun 2022, 13:41
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Originally Posted by kungfu panda View Post
I have read some speculation about the possibility of China invading a weakened Russia Post an economic and military collapse similar to the end of the cold War.
Clearly the west will not want a new Russia to develop in the way that we've seen since the cold war. Therefore the west will seek to exert its influence to bring Russia into line with the west. This of course is going to antagonise China who will not want to see any Eastern expansion of NATO allied forces.
In the power vacuum post Putin, given the fears the Chinese may have as well as the obvious power grab, is it not likely that the Chinese would invade Russia?

I understand that Russia would always pose a nuclear threat but given the power vacuum, the Chinese may consider this risk to be minimal.
Afaik, the Chinese used to control a good swath of the adjacent Siberia, which was taken from them in the late 1800s in a series of 'unequal treaties'.
So if the Russian Federation disintegrates like the Soviet Union, a 'return to China' might well happen voluntarily.
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Old 6th Jun 2022, 16:30
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Or voluntarily same as Luhansko-Donetck.
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Old 6th Jun 2022, 18:23
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Originally Posted by Falcon Al View Post
Originally Posted by hobbit1983 View Post
Will China invade Russia?

....no.

Next question..
Just ask Mongolia
I think it would be fair to say that the parallels between Mongolia and Russia aren't immediately obvious ...
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Old 6th Jun 2022, 19:33
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If Putin's regime falls resulting in chaos, then China will invade to "secure the nukes". That's unlikely, because someone would take control of Russia. Besides, Russia is useful to China trading them grain stolen from Ukraine.
In fact, China might have encouraged this situation in order to secure more food supply. They've been projecting a food crisis for some time now.
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Old 6th Jun 2022, 19:42
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Originally Posted by FullOppositeRudder View Post
Well they've already committed an unprovoked and totally illegal act of hostility on an RAAF P8 quietly going about its business in international air space so anything's possible.

https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/ne...0b20a28b6ae9e6
All this has happened before and will happen again. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hainan_Island_incident
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Old 7th Jun 2022, 18:34
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if the RFdisintegrates, the former Chinese territory in the SE of Siberia may well wish to revert to China, but China has it's own issues coming up and will have internal problems all of its own. Not all is happiness in the lands of Putin & Xi. Peter Zeihan suggests both countries are heading towards upheavals, but then our astronomers predict the rock gets whacked by a dinosaur-ending like lumpy thing, which resolves parking ticket complaints abruptly. Changes are certain over enough time, and if y'all pick the time, you don't need to work for a living.
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