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Scottish Politics

Old 19th Apr 2021, 09:18
  #321 (permalink)  
 
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Douglas Ross on Today desperately trying to find a way of telling Tubs not to go and " help" him in the election campaign.
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Old 20th Apr 2021, 06:15
  #322 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Effluent Man View Post
Douglas Ross on Today desperately trying to find a way of telling Tubs not to go and " help" him in the election campaign.
Ross certainly doesn’t need help like that. He’s pushing sh1t uphill with a pointy stick as it is.
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Old 29th Apr 2021, 07:05
  #323 (permalink)  
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Latest poll in the Scotsman shows support for independence down to 42% (42 Yes, 49 No, 8 Undecided).

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politi...-shows-3218102

Worst polling for Yes since 2019 as SNP support continues to drop, poll shows



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Old 29th Apr 2021, 08:09
  #324 (permalink)  
 
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Meanwhile same day, different newspaper...

There you go ORAC, a 51/49 split, same size sample used in the 2 polls. Which of them is correct, if either, I don't know. I do know that it would be a very brave, indeed a foolish, person who would bet against the SNP forming the next Scottish Government.

Last edited by Avionker; 29th Apr 2021 at 10:12.
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Old 29th Apr 2021, 08:28
  #325 (permalink)  
 
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I dont doubt the SNP will form the next Govt but they are predicted to lose 2 seats meaning they will fall short of a majority. Lets hope so as we have had enough division over the last 6 years.
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Old 29th Apr 2021, 08:48
  #326 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Danny G View Post
I dont doubt the SNP will form the next Govt but they are predicted to lose 2 seats meaning they will fall short of a majority. Lets hope so as we have had enough division over the last 6 years.
Eh...they don't have a majority at the moment . The electoral system for the Scottish Government was designed in such a way as to make it very difficult for there to be a majority Government. There has only been one majority Government since 1999, the SNP in 2011.
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Old 29th Apr 2021, 09:30
  #327 (permalink)  
 
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You are correct they govern by means of a deal with the Greens but they stated if they won a majority in the election then that would be a mandate for a new referendum. The last time they had a majority they also used that as a mandate for a referendum which of course they lost. They did state that was a "once in a generation" vote, I never knew a generation was so small.
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Old 29th Apr 2021, 10:48
  #328 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Danny G View Post
You are correct they govern by means of a deal with the Greens but they stated if they won a majority in the election then that would be a mandate for a new referendum. The last time they had a majority they also used that as a mandate for a referendum which of course they lost. They did state that was a "once in a generation" vote, I never knew a generation was so small.
They did not state that it SHOULD be a once in a generation vote, only that it probably WOULD be. Also Alex Salmond did say that it was his opinion, no mention was made of it been an SNP policy. The last referendum was before Brexit, before Scotland was dragged out of the EU by mostly English votes.

https://www.thenational.scot/news/18...e-opportunity/

And within only a couple of years the promises made by the Better Together campaign during the Independence Referendum campaign were broken by the Tory Government, what a surprise...

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp...ependence-day/

Maybe there's a good reason that the last time a Tory Government enjoyed a majority in Scotland was 1955.... Maybe there's a reason that from 1999 to 2007 the Scottish Government was a Labour/Liberal coalition and that since 2007 the SNP has been elected to Government, the Tories have never, and probably will never, get anywhere near the support to govern Scotland.
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Old 29th Apr 2021, 11:11
  #329 (permalink)  
 
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They did not state that it SHOULD be a once in a generation vote, only that it probably WOULD be. Also Alex Salmond did say that it was his opinion, no mention was made of it been an SNP policy. The last referendum was before Brexit, before Scotland was dragged out of the EU by mostly English votes.
Depends how you read tBoth Salmond and Sturgeon stated it was a once in a lifetime or generation opportunity. Were they lying? if so why would you believe anything either of them said again
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-scotland-29196661
And within only a couple of years the promises made by the Better Together campaign during the Independence Referendum campaign were broken by the Tory Government, what a surprise...
Yes the UK unfortunatly voted to leave the EU but that vote was a national vote not a regional one where the country as a whole voted, should London be allowed to leave the UK as well because they voted to remain? Also I think you will find the then Tory govt was pro remain. You are advocating a second independence referendum do you not also then believe the UK had every right to hold a referendum on the UK leaving the EU. Also if the UK had voted to remain in the EU would you have then supported another referendum 5 years later or like me expect it to be settled for a generation?

Maybe there's a good reason that the last time a Tory Government enjoyed a majority in Scotland was 1955.... Maybe there's a reason that from 1999 to 2007 the Scottish Government was a Labour/Liberal coalition and that since 2007 the SNP has been elected to Government, the Tories have never, and probably will never, get anywhere near the support to govern Scotland
You are probably correct but as they are now the second largest party in the parliament with more MSPs than Labour and the Lib Dems combined I think you can see they have far more support than you think.
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Old 29th Apr 2021, 12:23
  #330 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Danny G View Post
Depends how you read tBoth Salmond and Sturgeon stated it was a once in a lifetime or generation opportunity. Were they lying? if so why would you believe anything either of them said again
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-scotland-29196661

Yes the UK unfortunatly voted to leave the EU but that vote was a national vote not a regional one where the country as a whole voted, should London be allowed to leave the UK as well because they voted to remain? Also I think you will find the then Tory govt was pro remain. You are advocating a second independence referendum do you not also then believe the UK had every right to hold a referendum on the UK leaving the EU. Also if the UK had voted to remain in the EU would you have then supported another referendum 5 years later or like me expect it to be settled for a generation?



You are probably correct but as they are now the second largest party in the parliament with more MSPs than Labour and the Lib Dems combined I think you can see they have far more support than you think.
Did Salmond and Sturgeon say it was, or that it should be?

The EU referendum was a UK wide vote, yes. England with 84.3% of the population was always going to decide which way the result went, just a numbers game. Basically the UK will always end up with what England wants. One of the main reasons for independence really, Scotland getting what Scotland votes for.

Personally I believe Cameron was foolhardy for making the EU referendum a manifesto promise. But once he had, and won the election , he had no choice but to go ahead with it. Personally I would rather it had not occurred but that does not mean it shouldn't have. A little more effort in the Remain campaign wouldn't have gone amiss I must say.

If Remain had won, and within a couple of years there was a fundamental change in circumstances, then yes I would have supported another referendum.

The Scottish Tories may well have the second largest number of MSP's but how many are actually constituency MSP's elected by the FPP method, and how many are list MSP's elected from the Regional List using a modified proportional representation method?

To save you looking it up only 7 of the Tories 31 seats were won in constituencies, and for balance 3 of Labour's 24 seats. The SNP won 59 of their 63 seats in FPP constituencies. Due to the modified D'Hondt method used to allocate Regional seats the Tories and Labour received a much higher proportion of List seats than the SNP. This despite the split of the List vote been SNP 41.7%, Conservative 22.9% and Labour 19.1%.
It appears that I know exactly how much support they have in Scotland, perhaps you didn't? And this was pre-Brexit, I really see their share of the vote going one way only...

And incidentally can you remind me what the Tory position on PR is? All for it, or dead against it?

Douglas Ross, currently not an MSP, has put himself on the List, knowing full well that if he stood as a constituency MSP he would likely lose.
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Old 29th Apr 2021, 13:56
  #331 (permalink)  
 
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Did Salmond and Sturgeon say it was, or that it should be?
Quote on the Marr show before the referendum Speaking to Andrew Marr he said that a simple majority, however close, would be accepted by both sides in the campaign and there would be a "generational" gap before another independence referendum.

The EU referendum was a UK wide vote, yes. England with 84.3% of the population was always going to decide which way the result went, just a numbers game. Basically the UK will always end up with what England wants. One of the main reasons for independence really, Scotland getting what Scotland votes for.
Not always, England is the largest partner to be sure and also the largest source of money. england does not have free university places or care homes neither do the English get their prescriptions paid for. Scotland however by benefit of the Barnett formula does. The UK has also had a Scottish PM for about half of this centuary as well despite being in a minority

Personally I believe Cameron was foolhardy for making the EU referendum a manifesto promise. But once he had, and won the election , he had no choice but to go ahead with it. Personally I would rather it had not occurred but that does not mean it shouldn't have. A little more effort in the Remain campaign wouldn't have gone amiss I must say.
I agree, Cameron thought he would still be in a coalition with the lib dems but such was the attraction he won a narrow majority and was thus obliged to hold a referendum As for effort in the remain campaign, I would say putting the whole Govt machine into the remain camp plus getting people like Obama to back him up proved he did what he could incuding supplying all the financial data as to the likely impact of leaving, I notice the SNP are refusing to do that before the vote I think he overdid it and a lot of brits just dont like being told what to do.

The Scottish Tories may well have the second largest number of MSP's but how many are actually constituency MSP's elected by the FPP method, and how many are list MSP's elected from the Regional List using a modified proportional representation method?
That does not matter you accept the result the system gives you

If Remain had won, and within a couple of years there was a fundamental change in circumstances, then yes I would have supported another referendum.
Depends what you mean by a fundamental change I suppose. The UK has only been part of the EU (or EEC) since 1973 where as the UK has been around over 300 years, I dont remember the Scots wanting a referendum when we joined and they were totally anti EEC. I would say 300+years trumps 48 wouldnt you.
And incidentally can you remind me what the Tory position on PR is? All for it, or dead against it?
They are against but you may remember we had a referendum a few years ago and the majority of the UK were also against changing the system

Douglas Ross, currently not an MSP, has put himself on the List, knowing full well that if he stood as a constituency MSP he would likely lose.
Yep just like the nationalist ALBA party but thats the system you work to its rules

We have already lost one union it would be sad to see another go.
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Old 29th Apr 2021, 17:00
  #332 (permalink)  
 
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If they said then it doesn't apply due to Brexit. No used it as a lever, not legitimate.
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Old 29th Apr 2021, 20:03
  #333 (permalink)  
 
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Well, RBS has come out saying it will move its head office from Edinburgh to London if the Scottish Nationalist Party wins next weeks election. That means 6,000+ jobs just in their head office moving out of Scotland, hardly a vote of confidence in independence. I understand that several other financial institutions have been meeting today and are contemplating a similar move. Hardly surprising when nobody knows what currency will be used in Scotland after we leave, even the Scottish Nationalist Party can’t tell us. Scottish income tax will have to increase by c.£2,800 per person when Scotland deserts the UK and gives up the Barnett Formula. No word from the Scots Nats as to how this will be replaced, so we can only assume a huge income tax increase to cover the massive shortfall. And the icing on the cake is that the Scottish Nationalist Party wants to rejoin the EU! So, we’ll all need passports to go south of Hadrian’s Wall and be subject to duty free limits on our cheaper booze from Berwick. I think our family has decided where it will cast its vote next week and it’s nae SNP.
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Old 30th Apr 2021, 06:41
  #334 (permalink)  
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https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/n...rder-jm9f7lhnb

Nicola Sturgeon hails Northern Irish rules as template for border

The post-Brexit settlement in Northern Ireland is a template for the border between England and an independent Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon has said.

The SNP leader said that measures to limit checks on goods crossing the Irish Sea since Brexit could be a model for how to reduce friction within Britain.

After secession Scotland would comply with EU rules and try to join the union, she said. She blamed the Leave vote in 2016 for creating additional borders as the UK left the single market.

“The Northern Ireland protocol, if there are easements there, yes, I think that does offer some template, but we work in a proper planned way to make sure that any rules that have to be applied are applied in a way that absolutely minimises any practical difficulties for businesses trading across the England-Scotland border,” Sturgeon told The Irish Times......

Katy Hayward, professor of political sociology at Queen’s University Belfast and a senior fellow of the UK in a Changing Europe think tank, told Channel 4 News this week that she would “expect to see customs posts” at the border if an independent Scotland was in the EU and the rest of the UK remained outside the single market.

Sturgeon echoed Kirsty Hughes, director of the Scottish Centre on European Relations, who told Channel 4 that freedom of movement within the EU would be a boon for immigration in an independent Scotland.

It would require British and Irish consent and an opt-out from the EU’s Schengen travel area, which Ireland has and Britain had before Brexit.
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Old 30th Apr 2021, 07:19
  #335 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by On the beach View Post
Well, RBS has come out saying it will move its head office from Edinburgh to London if the Scottish Nationalist Party wins next weeks election. That means 6,000+ jobs just in their head office moving out of Scotland, hardly a vote of confidence in independence. I understand that several other financial institutions have been meeting today and are contemplating a similar move. Hardly surprising when nobody knows what currency will be used in Scotland after we leave, even the Scottish Nationalist Party can’t tell us. Scottish income tax will have to increase by c.£2,800 per person when Scotland deserts the UK and gives up the Barnett Formula. No word from the Scots Nats as to how this will be replaced, so we can only assume a huge income tax increase to cover the massive shortfall. And the icing on the cake is that the Scottish Nationalist Party wants to rejoin the EU! So, we’ll all need passports to go south of Hadrian’s Wall and be subject to duty free limits on our cheaper booze from Berwick. I think our family has decided where it will cast its vote next week and it’s nae SNP.
Moving a head office does not mean job losses. Indeed the bank also stated it would not affect the size of their operations in Scotland, but you neglected to mention that bit, why's that? While on the subject of job losses, how's our fishing industry doing now the UK has not bothered to make a deal with Norway?

Why is there such emotion about having to show a passport to get to Berwick upon tweed, which won't happen anyway as we will most likely just join the CTA, but even if we didn't...is it such a hassle now to show a passport when you're driving to Berwick to get your mythical cheaper booze (wouldn't the petrol cost outweigh the savings?). You have to show your passport to go on a plane to England anyway, you have to show it to go to every other country on earth. Why should England be any different? Because we haven't done so for 300 years? I suppose Scotland is the only country in the world that is not capable of setting up border controls. We as a people cannot overcomes such complex challenges.

Your numbers are all predictions from the same tired old biased sources. You cannot state with any certainty that any of that will come to pass. As for currency, bring on the Euro in my opinion...never quite understood the fear associated with it, but not surprised unionists are opposed. Maybe we could stick a Union jack on them for a bit as a compromise to help ease them into it?

It's certainly going to be fun over the next few years watching WM deny democracy after yet another pro independence majority at Holyrood is returned next week. Hoping it gets very interesting indeed! I'm not a policy maker or a member of any party whatsoever, don't fully align with any of them, but I know what makes sense and sticking with the UK definitely doesn't.
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Old 30th Apr 2021, 07:20
  #336 (permalink)  
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Senior SNP MP Alyn Smith has suggested an independent Scotland would “totally” accept joining the euro as a condition of EU membership. In an interview with La Repubblica’s Antonello Guerrera, he suggested a referendum could be held on the issue.

SNP figures including Nicola Sturgeon have up to now insisted an Indy Scotland would keep the pound for a transition period before introducing a separate currency, rejecting claims they would need to take on the euro as part of EU membership.
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Old 30th Apr 2021, 07:32
  #337 (permalink)  
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All England has to do is to stop Coronation Street from being broadcast in Scotland and the debate is over.
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Old 30th Apr 2021, 08:01
  #338 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by B Fraser View Post
All England has to do is to stop Coronation Street from being broadcast in Scotland and the debate is over.
Good cant stand it and you can keep eastenders as well.
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Old 30th Apr 2021, 09:13
  #339 (permalink)  
 
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Senior SNP MP Alyn Smith has suggested an independent Scotland would “totally” accept joining the euro as a condition of EU membership. In an interview with La Repubblica’s Antonello Guerrera, he suggested a referendum could be held on the issue.

SNP figures including Nicola Sturgeon have up to now insisted an Indy Scotland would keep the pound for a transition period before introducing a separate currency, rejecting claims they would need to take on the euro as part of EU membership.
It could get very interesting very fast if Scotland went for a seperate currency, who would be their lender of last resort and at what exchange rate would the new currency be pegged at.Also would an independent Scotland have to pay the pensions of those who had retired and moved to the UK in sterling of the new currency.

Before it could join the EU Scotland would have to sort their defecit and meet a load of other financial criteria which would be difficult and likely to take years. I found it interesting that independence had not been costed before the upcoming vote, is that because the SNP knows it would cost them votes if the true cost was revealed?
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Old 30th Apr 2021, 09:20
  #340 (permalink)  
 
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Irrelevant, it's sovereignty innit. The UK has shown that it trumps all other considerations. See fish, dairy, Ireland.
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