U.K. hotel quarantine
Thread Starter
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: London
Posts: 554
U.K. hotel quarantine
Trying to crunch some numbers and understand the big debate about quarantine hotels in U.K. and I wonder if anyone had anything to add.
I’m looking at all international arrivals and not just those from the ‘red list’ countries.
There are 100 international flights in to England today.
I’m assuming 50 pax per aircraft (anyone have a more accurate figure?)
Assuming 10% are exempt from quarantine presently due essential work.
Assuming 50% already self quarantine as per guidance.
The number of people that develop it obviously varies by country but generally somewhere between 0 and 1000 per million. However all these arrivals have had a negative COVID test in the last 72 hours so passenger arrivals must be in a much lower range. I’ve assumed 200/300 per million.
Using the assumptions above there are presently 2250 arrivals per day that are not self isolating on arrival when they should and with an incidence rate of 0.00025 that’s about 1 person every two days bringing COVID in to England from all countries worldwide.
I appreciate there are a lot of assumptions but they seem to be reasonable from the research I’ve done and even if you dial them up to the maximum range you still get a tiny number of people per week. We are no longer importing this disease.
There’s a been a lot of moral outrage and hysteria about this the last few days and it’s another huge blow to our industry yet I haven’t seen any accurate numbers about flight or passenger numbers.
I wonder if anyone could give me more accurate numbers and whether we should be trying to defend aviation more.
I’m looking at all international arrivals and not just those from the ‘red list’ countries.
There are 100 international flights in to England today.
I’m assuming 50 pax per aircraft (anyone have a more accurate figure?)
Assuming 10% are exempt from quarantine presently due essential work.
Assuming 50% already self quarantine as per guidance.
The number of people that develop it obviously varies by country but generally somewhere between 0 and 1000 per million. However all these arrivals have had a negative COVID test in the last 72 hours so passenger arrivals must be in a much lower range. I’ve assumed 200/300 per million.
Using the assumptions above there are presently 2250 arrivals per day that are not self isolating on arrival when they should and with an incidence rate of 0.00025 that’s about 1 person every two days bringing COVID in to England from all countries worldwide.
I appreciate there are a lot of assumptions but they seem to be reasonable from the research I’ve done and even if you dial them up to the maximum range you still get a tiny number of people per week. We are no longer importing this disease.
There’s a been a lot of moral outrage and hysteria about this the last few days and it’s another huge blow to our industry yet I haven’t seen any accurate numbers about flight or passenger numbers.
I wonder if anyone could give me more accurate numbers and whether we should be trying to defend aviation more.
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Germany
Posts: 877
I would question some of your assumptions. In particular I disagree with the idea that a negative test reduces numbers so dramatically and that so few passengers are infected. Bermuda is a case in point. It is has a very strict testing system with multiple tests before and after arrival and almost no local transmission. You can only get there by plane and they can very accurately link cases to specific flights, of which there are not very many. A recent charter from the Azores had a double digit number of infected passengers. The BA flight from London rarely arrives without any. The self quarantining is also an issue with the latest variants, as people are demonstrably infecting their families. An example in Berlin where a student flew in from the UK and infected all five members of her family who were themselves not quarantining, was what triggered doctors to realise that the new variant had arrived. So in summary, much as I would like to get flying again, I don't think the facts support your argument.
Thread Starter
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: London
Posts: 554
Originally Posted by lederhosen
In particular I disagree with the idea that a negative test reduces numbers so dramatically and that so few passengers are infected..
I haven’t assumed a negative test reduces numbers dramatically.
I don’t want to be dismissive of your experiences or illustrative stories but Bermuda has had 689 cases of which 199 are classed as imported and 482 local transmissions. The latest case was the only positive in 712 test results so the present test and quarantine system is working and I don’t think it’s fair to say the BA flight from Gatwick rarely arrives without any.
Im not saying there no cases being imported to the U.K. just that it’s such a tiny number, highly likely between 1 and 10 per week, that the aviation industry is paying a huge price and the public have lost all perspective on the risk.
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Germany
Posts: 877
I agree with you that Bermuda has kept a lid on things. You seem to be using data from (or very similar to) Worldometer. If you look at the graphical representation of new cases you can see the spike that occurred with people flying in for Xmas and infecting others. You can also see the spike on Jan 18th which I believe is the Azores flight. My information is based on first hand accounts as well as the public data. Local transmissions are also obviously linked to the flights. The aim has to be to eliminate any further flare ups and I notice you have not commented on my point about the risk of home quarantine cross infection of families. I want to get back flying but we are not going to get a grip on things by arguments using very broad assumptions.
Thread Starter
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: London
Posts: 554
I appreciate your comments. I was using The Royal Gazette for Bermuda news but I do tend to use worldometers too. The problem with first hand accounts is they are skewed to the experiences of the person (confirmation bias?) I firmly believe you have to look at the statistics as a whole to get a better picture. (You might think 100% of arrivals in Berlin infect their families, I think it’s 0%- sorry for the over simplification.)
As I’ve tried to show above, we’re talking about (most probably) single digit cases of imported COVID to England per week when the total number of new cases was 200,000? last week. So just looking at COVID generally that is not a good enough reward for the costs involved.
if you want to look at new strains, sure that’s a risk but where do they come from? The mutations tend to happen where there are already significant case numbers - England as an example.
If we are importing single digit cases per week, the chance of one of those cases being a new mutation are much smaller still and certainly smaller than another english mutation.
As I’ve tried to show above, we’re talking about (most probably) single digit cases of imported COVID to England per week when the total number of new cases was 200,000? last week. So just looking at COVID generally that is not a good enough reward for the costs involved.
if you want to look at new strains, sure that’s a risk but where do they come from? The mutations tend to happen where there are already significant case numbers - England as an example.
If we are importing single digit cases per week, the chance of one of those cases being a new mutation are much smaller still and certainly smaller than another english mutation.
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Germany
Posts: 877
I agree again that there can be a tendency towards confirmation bias. But I think we can agree that it is much easier to draw some conclusions from the Bermuda data, than it is say in the UK and I don't think it obviates what my sources are telling me. In the UK I think it is much harder to develop compelling conclusions. For example I haven't seen any hard and fast proof that the so called English variant actually developed in England. But there is clear evidence that an outbreak in Berlin came from the UK (so I am not clear why you think 0% infect their families / or I don't get your humour). Anyway we will just have to agree to disagree about the risk from people flying in. My gut feel is that flights from Dubai would be well worth monitoring.
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: France
Posts: 454
I would like to see Dubai and various Caribbean Islands put on the red list to show influencers and 'bikini-clad' (or less clothed) photographable folk who are 'working' ... that they are not exempt from real life restrictions. I'll get my coat ...
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: UK
Age: 55
Posts: 3,038
I would also question your average pax number per flt. I know for a fact that there are regular flights arriving from the Middle East with 200+ passengers on each flt, multiple flights per day. Not even in the London area.
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Manchester, UK
Posts: 1,955
We’re repeatedly told that policy will follow the science; where’s the evidence that hotel quarantine will make a difference? Seeing Bermuda statistics being quoted to justify it doesn’t inspire confidence.
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: 51.50N 1W (ish)
Posts: 1,037
Unfortunately demanding the evidence for the outcome of an action is not terribly helpful until time travel is invented.
Some of the criticism of the government is justified, but most of the loudest critics are guilty of perfect hindsight , and the Labour Party spokesmen (or spokespeople for the woke) now are raging against actions taken that they demanded in the past.
Some of the criticism of the government is justified, but most of the loudest critics are guilty of perfect hindsight , and the Labour Party spokesmen (or spokespeople for the woke) now are raging against actions taken that they demanded in the past.
Thread Starter
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: London
Posts: 554
Originally Posted by TURIN
I would also question your average pax number per flt. I know for a fact that there are regular flights arriving from the Middle East with 200+ passengers on each flt, multiple flights per day. Not even in the London area.
I am talking specifically about flights in the last 2/3 weeks not the holiday period.
Manchester does have two flights from Doha today but that’s all I can see outside London that match your description. Birmingham have two international arrivals today - one from Dublin and a freighter from Dubai.
U.K. aviation has really dropped off a cliff since the first week of January.
If you have more accurate international passenger numbers I’d love to have them but from my experience it’s not that bad a guess.
(and even if the passenger numbers were double, which is very doubtful, it is still a minute trickle of imported cases.)
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Under a gooseberry bush
Posts: 53
I might have missed something here, so please forgive me if I have.
If we are going to insist on this hotel quarantine, what exactly is the point of anyone bothering to have a test before they arrive? There appears that there are no exceptions and a negative test doesn’t bypass the procedure. Bearing in mind that that there are businesses popping up all over the place offering Covid tests for travellers at £120 a time, it looks like there’s certainly a money making opportunity for some.
If we are going to insist on this hotel quarantine, what exactly is the point of anyone bothering to have a test before they arrive? There appears that there are no exceptions and a negative test doesn’t bypass the procedure. Bearing in mind that that there are businesses popping up all over the place offering Covid tests for travellers at £120 a time, it looks like there’s certainly a money making opportunity for some.
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Bristol,UK
Posts: 225
Originally Posted by BWSBoy6
I might have missed something here, so please forgive me if I have.
If we are going to insist on this hotel quarantine, what exactly is the point of anyone bothering to have a test before they arrive? There appears that there are no exceptions and a negative test doesn’t bypass the procedure. Bearing in mind that that there are businesses popping up all over the place offering Covid tests for travellers at £120 a time, it looks like there’s certainly a money making opportunity for some.
If we are going to insist on this hotel quarantine, what exactly is the point of anyone bothering to have a test before they arrive? There appears that there are no exceptions and a negative test doesn’t bypass the procedure. Bearing in mind that that there are businesses popping up all over the place offering Covid tests for travellers at £120 a time, it looks like there’s certainly a money making opportunity for some.
Thread Starter
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: London
Posts: 554
Originally Posted by under_exposed
Looking at this indicates Heathrow had over a million people arriving in the UK in December alone.
Traffic has dropped off a cliff since then. I’ve used today’s flights as a guide and discounted domestic and obviously cargo only flights. Some cargo flights are using the usual passenger flight number for that route so for avoidance of doubt I’ve left those in.
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Kelowna Wine Country
Posts: 447
On the other hand there are a lot of people saying that Britain has a poor track record and should be doing the same as countries like, say, Australia. In Aus they have been hotel quarantining for quite some time.
There is no right answer, just guesstimate and judgement calls with hopeful outcomes and plenty of conflicting advice from "experts" who, frankly, seem to know no more that the man on the omnibus.
There is no right answer, just guesstimate and judgement calls with hopeful outcomes and plenty of conflicting advice from "experts" who, frankly, seem to know no more that the man on the omnibus.
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: La Rochelle.
Age: 45
Posts: 515
I would like to see Dubai and various Caribbean Islands put on the red list
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: UK
Age: 50
Posts: 337
Originally Posted by clareprop
Number 1 son lives in Dubai and while I understand completely the point you make, it is apparent that Dubai is amongst the strictest countries for entry. They have been airport testing for months. All visitors straight to quarantine until the results are available.
