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Be afraid Tesla. Be very afraid...

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Be afraid Tesla. Be very afraid...

Old 14th Jan 2021, 00:44
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Be afraid Tesla. Be very afraid...

https://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/vision-s/
They're moving rapidly to put it into production.
And the platform is adaptable to SUVs etc.
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Old 14th Jan 2021, 02:37
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Hmm . . . I used to standardise on Sony for everything. Now my Vaio is without drivers because they "sold the name to a group of investors and it's not worth the time to retro write W10 drivers." (mentioned during a call to Sony) And my wondrous Sony projector telly in Texas, $3k with warranty, needed a light engine change at 18 months. Very careful techie did the work but I was not happy. A VERY long story, and yet another light engine later, the techie stared at me as I looked at the pixels with an eyeglass. Sears cut me a cheque and that was the end of Sony for me. It seems the reason it was just not right was that the 3 to 4" lens/mirrors in the replacement light engines were no longer made of real glass. To me that was fraud.

I'd worked on their broadcast cameras and other kit for years.

It's going to be a while before they gain the detailed expertise of Tesler. If I was Mr Public, and wanted an alternative, I'd look at Lexus but again it's the production minutiae that will beleaguer the owners for quite a while.
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Old 14th Jan 2021, 02:51
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Everyone is putting out electric vehicles now,so Tesla will loose sales anyway.I see the Mustang electric SUV got some award,so they will start selling.In the end it will be a price war.
Majority of people only need one with a smaller range,but whose going to pay 30-40% more than the petrol version.
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Old 14th Jan 2021, 07:34
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About 50% all cars sold in Norway are electrical making us a very interesting market for all manufacturers of these appliances.
What Tesla should worry about is not Mustangs, VW, Audi et all, the should worry the Chinese manufactures. They've already selling the cheap and cheerful MG in droves here and some of their more upscale offerings look pretty impressive.
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Old 14th Jan 2021, 08:21
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The American car industry has always been very competitive, to the point of cutthroat in some instances, and the current global industry is the same.
What seems to drive automotive industry success are innovation, customer appeal and price points.
Currently Tesla seems to be ahead in a long standing full blown drive to push workable electrics with all the others playing Johnny-come-lately catch-up.
But, don't stay on your toes and it all can change rapidly. Reliability and that sweet-spot range will come to all eventually but price will be a game changer. Not sure of the real value of all the 'connected' do-dads, nine video cameras, Amazon ordering capabilities and auto-driving etc. I don't need them or their costs.
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Old 14th Jan 2021, 08:38
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Originally Posted by meadowrun View Post
The American car industry has always been very competitive, to the point of cutthroat in some instances, and the current global industry is the same.
What seems to drive automotive industry success are innovation, customer appeal and price points.
Currently Tesla seems to be ahead in a long standing full blown drive to push workable electrics with all the others playing Johnny-come-lately catch-up.
But, don't stay on your toes and it all can change rapidly. Reliability and that sweet-spot range will come to all eventually but price will be a game changer. Not sure of the real value of all the 'connected' do-dads, nine video cameras, Amazon ordering capabilities and auto-driving etc. I don't need them or their costs.
Which is where the MG, as mentioned above, comes into it's own. No fancy bits and bobs, just the ability to get you from A to B with electric power. Tesla may well be able to hold the leading position in the premium end of the market, but in the mass market, MG are putting down a marker for the future.
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Old 14th Jan 2021, 09:20
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Unless Tesla do something about their pretty dire build quality, ongoing issues with software bugs, and generally poorly organised customer service, they will lose the gain they have to companies who can build cheaper, better built cars, with a better customer service network.

At the moment, Tesla sales are mainly to people who want a performance EV, are fans of what Tesla are doing (in a similar way to fans of Apple products in many respects) and are prepared to pretty much ignore all the many issues the cars and the company have. With the mass rollout of the Model 3 that's beginning to change. People are switching from makes like BMW and Audi to Tesla, based on price and performance, then finding that dealing with Tesla is like dealing with a budget manufacturer, and that quality assurance is an alien concept. Loads of Tesla's are being delivered to customers with defects, sometimes serious, as Tesla seem to do no form of pre-delivery inspection. Their "streamlined" system is to deliver cars direct from the docks to customers, then insist that customers find and report any manufacturing defects (and there are often loads of them). Coupled with software that is so buggy at times as to be downright dangerous (I can absolutely guarantee that the car will do an unwarranted emergency stop at least once every trip if I use cruise control, for example) and mainstream customers are going to look elsewhere as soon as there is anything competitive on the market.

The ace that Tesla has up its sleeve is the Supercharger network, which makes charging on route somewhere fast and painless, with no need for any payment (plugging the car in just tells Tesla whose account to bill). That's a big reason for some to want a Tesla, and another reason for some Tesla owners to put up with the issues the cars have. If other charge networks grow to be as fantastic as the Tesla network, then that advantage for Tesla pretty much goes away. Norway has shown that it is possible to put decent charging networks in place, so it can be done, albeit in Norway's case with heavy incentives from the government that make EV ownership a no-brainer for many people.

As mentioned above, I believe the Chinese manufacturers, like MG, Polestar, Geely, etc will be the ones to knock Tesla off the top spot. With the MG electric range China has shown that it can build good quality EVs for a reasonable price, and with the Polestar (also Chinese now, as Polestar is part of Chinese-owned Volvo) the Chinese have shown that they can also make quality EVs. The name Geely may not be familiar in the west, but they are the Chinese company that's owned Volvo for years now and are also a well-known Chinese domestic market manufacturer. Geely are now selling their own brand EVs in Europe, and they look to be pretty well made. Given that one of the largest Tesla factories is now in China too, and is exporting Chinese made Model 3s into Europe, it seems pretty clear that mainstream European manufacturers, like VAG, BMW, Mercedes, Renault etc will have a battle on their hands to gain a foothold in the EV market.
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Old 14th Jan 2021, 10:16
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I remembe4 buying a Betamax VCR because it was technically better than VHS......
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Old 14th Jan 2021, 11:00
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I was reading an article over the last weeks, can't locate it now, but it was explaining in essence that electric vehicles both through their manufacture, fuelling and recycling would have a greater negative affect on the earth's resources than they would benefit it. I can appreciate the positive effect on city air pollution, but in the outlying rural areas perhaps less so. The very difficult recycling of the end of life batteries was enlightening in terms of levels of toxicity.

Would manufacturers not be more gainfully tasked to develop cutting edge energy capture/recapture technology, such as from braking, movement, temperature and so on ? As a layman, it just seems that we throw away such a huge amount of possibly useable energy every day in many spheres, but especially in the home/workplace and automobile.
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Old 14th Jan 2021, 12:04
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Originally Posted by SpringHeeledJack View Post
I was reading an article over the last weeks, can't locate it now, but it was explaining in essence that electric vehicles both through their manufacture, fuelling and recycling would have a greater negative affect on the earth's resources than they would benefit it. I can appreciate the positive effect on city air pollution, but in the outlying rural areas perhaps less so. The very difficult recycling of the end of life batteries was enlightening in terms of levels of toxicity.

Would manufacturers not be more gainfully tasked to develop cutting edge energy capture/recapture technology, such as from braking, movement, temperature and so on ? As a layman, it just seems that we throw away such a huge amount of possibly useable energy every day in many spheres, but especially in the home/workplace and automobile.
For years there have been fake reports circulating about this. They are almost always sponsored by big oil companies, often in conjunction with car makers that are way behind the technology curve. It's been a pretty big dirty tricks campaign dating back to before lithium cells became viable for EVs, as highlighted in "Who Killed the Electric Car?", for example, dating back twenty years or more. Then there was the infamous bit of fake news that claimed that a GM Hummer was "greener" than a Toyota Prius (that was also a load of faked data). More recently, a report that was produced by Aston Martin (hiding behind a subsidiary, Clarendon Publications) was doing the rounds, aiming to continue the false claim about environmental impact. That got uncovered pretty quickly, as ever since the infamous GM trash "report", there are people just ready and waiting to dig around and find who's really behind some well-circulated publications. This latest one is reported here: https://www.theguardian.com/business...et-pr-firm-row

The problem is that many of the big car manufacturers have been caught on the back foot by the relatively rapid development, and sales growth, of electric cars. In some countries, electric car sales are growing at a much faster pace than conventional cars. The world's biggest car manufacturer, Toyota, has been caught out, and is now playing catch up, for example, but it will probably take them several years to catch up with companies that are already mass producing EVs. VAG have probably worked faster than any other company to develop EVs in record time, but have fallen foul of a fair few problems in rushing their first ground-up EV car to market, the ID.3. Of all the big auto companies, VAG have probably committed the highest level of investment, but even they are well behind Tesla at the moment. Tesla has grown from nothing to the world's most valuable car manufacturer in a bit over a decade, making its CEO the world's richest person in the process. It's going to take a lot to beat that, but it can be done if the big auto companies apply their expertise and make the committent needed, I'm sure.
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Old 14th Jan 2021, 13:05
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Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
At the moment, Tesla sales are mainly to people who want a performance EV, are fans of what Tesla are doing (in a similar way to fans of Apple products in many respects) and are prepared to pretty much ignore all the many issues the cars and the company have. With the mass rollout of the Model 3 that's beginning to change. People are switching from makes like BMW and Audi to Tesla, based on price and performance, then finding that dealing with Tesla is like dealing with a budget manufacturer, and that quality assurance is an alien concept. Loads of Tesla's are being delivered to customers with defects, sometimes serious, as Tesla seem to do no form of pre-delivery inspection. Their "streamlined" system is to deliver cars direct from the docks to customers, then insist that customers find and report any manufacturing defects (and there are often loads of them). Coupled with software that is so buggy at times as to be downright dangerous (I can absolutely guarantee that the car will do an unwarranted emergency stop at least once every trip if I use cruise control, for example) and mainstream customers are going to look elsewhere as soon as there is anything competitive on the market.
Their 2020 sales are driven by the two mass market models, 3 and Y

From Tesla.com
Production / Deliveries
Model S&X 54,805 / 57,039
Model 3&Y 454,932 / 442,511
Total 509,737 / 499,550
https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/t...ion-deliveries

JAS
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Old 14th Jan 2021, 13:09
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John Cadoganís channel on YouTube has a fair bit to say about Tesla. Basically they make their money by selling credits to other manufacturers who produce very few zero emission vehicles. Once major manufacturers are producing EVs in significant quantities with economies of scale and a higher level of quality, then Tesla will be in real trouble.

Toyota produce over 10 million vehicles a year and will likely offer a better product at a lower price.


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Old 14th Jan 2021, 13:31
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Originally Posted by Just a spotter View Post
Their 2020 sales are driven by the two mass market models, 3 and Y

From Tesla.com

https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/t...ion-deliveries

JAS

I know, one of those Model 3 sales was to me . . .
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Old 14th Jan 2021, 13:36
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Is Tesla filing patents? Used to be a dedicated department in every big tech company once upon a time. Not that China cares for it.

I do think the Tesla model S is a very good looking car, but I think the same of a recently release ICE Kia that I don't know the name of yet.

Perhaps Tesla will move into niche industries by just building the most profitable components of an EV.
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Old 14th Jan 2021, 14:22
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Originally Posted by SpringHeeledJack View Post
.......Would manufacturers not be more gainfully tasked to develop cutting edge energy capture/recapture technology, such as from braking, movement, temperature and so on ? As a layman, it just seems that we throw away such a huge amount of possibly useable energy every day in many spheres, but especially in the home/workplace and automobile.
Probably: Internal combustion engines have an efficiency of only 18-20%, even if turbocharged, so 80% of the energy you put in the tank goes out of the exhaust pipe and in heating up the engine bay, making no contribution to forward motion. Some very specialised ICE engines can reach 50% efficiency, which is better but still pretty poor - half the energy thrown away but CO2 still produced.

I remember reading somewhere that coal fired steam trains have an efficiency of about 2% (two) !!!

Also, things fitted to modern cars such as electrically opening and closing tailgates, doors, windows, adjustable seats etc., just add more weight and use more precious energy.

I think Tesla's advantage at the moment is their 250 miles or more range, whereas the vast majority of other BEVs currently manage only around 100 miles.
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Old 14th Jan 2021, 14:23
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I could have posted a link to wiki, but Google China and electrical cars and I'll think some of you are in for a surprise.
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Old 14th Jan 2021, 14:25
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Wasn't it always thought that Tesla are really interested in producing batteries and are just trying to stimulate the EV market with their vehicles?
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Old 14th Jan 2021, 14:45
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Originally Posted by meadowrun View Post
Not sure of the real value of all the 'connected' do-dads, nine video cameras, Amazon ordering capabilities and auto-driving etc. I don't need them or their costs.
These are largely programming (once written, basically zero marginal cost) or absurdly cheap hardware - what's a digital camera module cost compared to the total value of a car?
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Old 14th Jan 2021, 15:59
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I could have posted a link to wiki, but Google China and electrical cars and I'll think some of you are in for a surprise.
Tesla is still the No 2 seller. 150,000 in China in a year.
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Old 14th Jan 2021, 16:28
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Originally Posted by Uplinker View Post
I think Tesla's advantage at the moment is their 250 miles or more range, whereas the vast majority of other BEVs currently manage only around 100 miles.
That's part of it, but there are a lot of EVs with a range of well over 100 miles, in fact finding one as low as 100 miles is a bit of a struggle. Some non-Tesla examples (all are WLTP range):

VW ID.3 - 336 miles
Polestar 2 - 292 miles
Jaguar iPace - 292 miles
Kia eNiro - 282 miles
Hyundai Kona - 278 miles
Porsche Taycan - 270 miles
Mercedes EQC - 259 miles
Audi eTron - 239 miles
Nissan Leaf - 239 miles
Kia Soul - 225 miles
Citroen eC4 - 217 miles
MG 5 - 214 miles
Peugeot e208 - 211 miles
Vauxhall Corsa - 205 miles
Fiat 500 - 199 miles
Hyundai IoniQ - 193 miles
BMW i3 - 193 miles
Renault Zoe - 192 miles

There are a dozen or so other EVs around the 150 to 190 mile range.
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