Beast from the East?

[ORAC]

I think that's a red herring....

[Tartiflette Fan]

Originally Posted by ATNotts

I understood the rule of thumb was 1st November to 31 March,

That's just a little unofficial reminder. Another common one is "O bis 0" meaning Oktober bis Ostern ( October until Easter ) so you see the variance in time. Given the size of the country, the needs of a motorist in Cologne are completely different from someone in Garmisch-Partenkirchen.

Originally Posted by ATNotts

and that winter or all season tyres were acceptable. I believe that you can be fairly heavily fined for blocking to road if driving in winter conditions without the appropriate 'boots' on your vehicle.

If you get caught in a police check in winter conditions without the right tyres, it is € 60 fine and one penalty point. If you block a road or cause an accident, it is € 120 and one penalty point. Obviously in the latter case you are also open to other driving charges and your insurance may well decide not to pay your damages because of contributory negligence. In order for a tyre to be recognised as a winter-tyre, it must carry the snowflake/three peaks symbol.

My summer tyres are 215/55x 16 and winter 195/65 x 15. I am happy to have a slightly narrower winter-tyre which may advantageously increase the pressure on the road and is also considerably cheaper than a 16". I always follow the ADAC winter-tyre test-reports where Continental and Nokian have come out top for a good number of years ( for mid-sized cars ).

[DType]

EG
Yes, Gala rugby players are impressive, almost up to the standard of Hawick's.
(I may have given away my early residence there)

[Mr Mac]

Originally Posted by ATNotts

I understood the rule of thumb was 1st November to 31 March, and that winter or all season tyres were acceptable. I believe that you can be fairly heavily fined for blocking to road if driving in winter conditions without the appropriate 'boots' on your vehicle.

ATNotts
Please see latest rules re tires below in Germany and winter conditions. Obviously as winters there are more extreme than here, you do make sure you change to winter "boots" ."The new German law does not set any time limits, but it does clearly state that under icy conditions (bei Glatteis, Schneeglätte, Schneematsch, Eis- und Reifglätte) you must not drive without snow tires on your vehicle. So, since it’s difficult to predict the weather, for all practical purposes, the old “von O bis O” rule still applies ( Oct - Easter)
German federal law was amended in 2015 to require the use of winter tires when conditions are icy. A new Alpine winter tire symbol has been added to the former “M+S” mark (Matsch und Schnee). As of January 2018, newly fabricated winter tires must be marked with a new Alpine symbol (a 3-peak mountain pictogram with a snowflake). The new icon is more than a mere symbol. It also reflects the new law that spells out what a “winter tire” is, and sets new standards that were not in place before. Existing winter tires (M+S-Reifen) with only the old M+S mark will be allowed until 30 September 2024, but the ADAC German automobile club recommends getting new tires with the Alpine “3-peak-mountain” mark as soon as possible. The new law also applies to trucks and buses, but motorcycles are exempt.

Cheers
Mr Mac

[ATNotts]

Mr Mac,

Thanks very much for that useful summary.

If we're ever allowed out of 'HMP England' again I'll need to upgrade the tyres for winter driving in Germany!

Cheers!
ATN

[longer ron]

Originally Posted by Mr Mac

Longer ron
Interesting. Kwik Fit fitted two four season (Pirelli) on my front wheels on my V90 CC in Nov with out any comment like that. My rear ones were changed yesterday. My wife is awaiting four 21in four seasons arriving next week so when I am down getting them changed I will ask why they did not mention this. I can not believe Pirelli are different to Goodyear in that respect. As I say I will get back to you with their response.

Cheers
Mr mAC

I would be more interested in what my insurance company thought about it in the process of any claim TBH,it is not Kwikfit's (or any other tyre supplier) responsibility to ensure that our cars are legal and roadworthy.

cheers LR

[Non Linear Gear]

Daily Mail Weather Forecasting.

Should be taken with a massive bucket of salt and ignored as scaremongering of OAPs. It is never going to be as cold as 1963, 1947, 1984, 1991 or other bad years. That is a fact.

[longer ron]

Originally Posted by Mr Mac

longer ron
I think one of the skills in winter driving is actually planning your route as much as the car / tyres or skill. Around here any North South routing involves innumerable steep climbs and or descents depending on on how far you have to travel. I find it is more sensible (in Yorkshire) to head East a little and come back up the valley you want to be in. Unfortunately many people are pre programmed it would seem, to take the same route to work or school regardless of conditions.
Cheers
Mr Mac

Funnily enough the route I was on yesterday is (with one exception) fairly gentle for Scotland,there is an alternative route which has slightly less gradients but it has some big disadvantages vis a vis traffic etc,i was surprised at the amount of black ice on the way home as it had been a lovely day and there was no trace of ice on the outward journey in the morning,the first road I encountered ice on runs along the north side of a hill so would not have had the benefit of any sun during the day,I hit the first icy patch at approx 1540 @ +2c ambient - after that it was a very cautious drive home LOL.

[longer ron]

Originally Posted by Non Linear Gear

Should be taken with a massive bucket of salt and ignored as scaremongering of OAPs. It is never going to be as cold as 1963, 1947, 1984, 1991 or other bad years. That is a fact.

Technically that is an Opinion
It is a brave man who would care to predict the weather in this country

[Non Linear Gear]

Originally Posted by longer ron

Technically that is an Opinion
It is a brave man who would care to predict the weather in this country

Like the Daily Mail does? Everything they write is an opinion. If it was as cold as 1981 and 1984 by now I would believe them. It has not been. It will not be.

[longer ron]

ne'er cast a clout till May is out

[Non Linear Gear]

Originally Posted by longer ron

ne'er cast a clout till May is out

If there is 6 feet snow drifts on the side of the A505 like there was between Royston and Duxford on my first trip to Norwich from Halton in Feb 85 and the minus 20 degrees C frosts in Hertfordshire in 1981/1982 and similar in 84/85, I will take warning. Air Frosts of below -10 near Balmoral are yearly events. Beast from the East 2018 was small fry to those Winters I have just mentioned. The Journalist writing for the Mail is getting their training in truth twisting. If we were going to have a wicked winter it usually would be kicking off now. The 2 winters I mentioned began well before Christmas. Of course it depends on the Jetstream and any forecast on that can only be gauged . I would be looking at that like Langley Bastion would be. 10 days time, a strong westerly jetstream over the UK? Weather isn't coming from Siberia is it? https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/jetstream

[Krystal n chips]

Originally Posted by Non Linear Gear

If there is 6 feet snow drifts on the side of the A505 like there was between Royston and Duxford on my first trip to Norwich from Halton in Feb 85 and the minus 20 degrees C frosts in Hertfordshire in 1981/1982 and similar in 84/85, I will take warning. Air Frosts of below -10 near Balmoral are yearly events. Beast from the East 2018 was small fry to those Winters I have just mentioned. The Journalist writing for the Mail is getting their training in truth twisting. If we were going to have a wicked winter it usually would be kicking off now. The 2 winters I mentioned began well before Christmas. Of course it depends on the Jetstream and any forecast on that can only be gauged . I would be looking at that like Langley Bastion would be. 10 days time, a strong westerly jetstream over the UK? Weather isn't coming from Siberia is it? https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/jetstream

Well that's the infamous East Anglia tundra and steppes for you....not forgetting the permafrost starting at Wisbech, along with one of the UK's most challenging driving routes. Incidentally, in your travels, did you encounter a Fenland hill ?.....I only ask because a contributor on here mentioned this apparition once or twice, but, despite his former occupation, was unable to offer a fix as it were.

Anyway, about the Mail and wx. Sadly, you seem to be confused as to which rag specialises in wx prediction. The Mail only gets involved when it wishes to advise its readers now is the time to fit ski racks to impress others on the arduous trips to Waiterose....although this year, fitting such may be a shade problematic.

Personally, I'm more of a Mk 1 eyeball / pine cones / glance at the squiggly lines person....but do sometimes browse a little book called "The Observers Book of Weather "....unlikely to be seen on the shelves of Tarquin and Tabatha on account of the contents being possibly a little too complex for them in this modern age.

You mention L B, who often refers to his time in RAFG so one did wonder, but as it was the weekend, probably not, if it were he who became " somewhat upset " when I made a couple of helpful suggestions .You know what the RAF's like for protocols, thus as duty pilot at the gliding club, despite the 100 ft base, 40-50kts and most of the North Sea over Bruggen, one was still obliged to phone Rhein D and then await, this dates it somewhat, for the fax to discuss the forecast. Imagine ones surprise ,being an untrained observer, to read of weak to medium thermals, 5000ft base and light winds...that was Sat. Sun, no change, however, one did suggest he had a career change, to say ditch digging, or plate washing perhaps, or, better still, actually look out of the window. I subsequently then had to ignore some Wing Commander gravely informing me I was never, ever, to speak to such an important person in that manner again.

But, now we come to an emerging theme in your posts.....and for us Guardian readers, this is ageist you understands, to wit, the references to...OAP's !

True, I is now retired, thankfully, but t'wud appear you is being a shade discriminatory here as to what constitutes "old " and thus our seemingly impaired faculties....although I will concur some contributors do add credence to your perception.

[longer ron]

Originally Posted by Non Linear Gear

The Journalist writing for the Mail is getting their training in truth twisting. If we were going to have a wicked winter it usually would be kicking off now. The 2 winters I mentioned began well before Christmas. Of course it depends on the Jetstream and any forecast on that can only be gauged . I would be looking at that like Langley Bastion would be. 10 days time, a strong westerly jetstream over the UK? Weather isn't coming from Siberia is it? https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/jetstream

- I am sure you realise what a wink or a smiley means,just like you might have some backlash in a Non Linear Gearbox .
I do not care what the Mail or any other newspaper/journalist says/prints (I do not read any of them).
You might want to back off a little on the ageist quips though mon ami,I know it is fashionable at the moment but it was the only reason I posted any reply to your post,our weather is what we get,definitely takes a brave man to predict UK weather.
Age is relative - there is almost always somebody older and somebody younger than yourself LOL

[jolihokistix]

Set to hit parts of Japan too from Thursday as a front moves down from Siberia. Pity those poor citizens of DPRK (NK).

[Jump Complete]

KnC Your comments about the forecaster needing to look out the window reminds me of flying inter-island services in the Channel Islands. TAF would say something like 4000m, Broken 400’, Tempo 1000 m. Look out of crew room window, can’t see the aeroplane parked outside. The screen showing live weather for Guernsey, Jersey and Alderney would be showing 200 metres and on the deck. Go and fire up the kettle. Then, at around 11.00 the TAF would change to reflect the actual conditions. I became convinced that the forecaster was a smoker, and that he would go outside for a mid-morning fag, and as he was lighting it, would look up at the sky, then rush back in and change his forecast!

[ORAC]

East Anglia - were the land sweeps from the valleys to the plateaus inches above....

[WB627]

Originally Posted by Krystal n chips

You know what the RAF's like for protocols, thus as duty pilot at the gliding club, despite the 100 ft base, 40-50kts and most of the North Sea over Bruggen, one was still obliged to phone Rhein D and then await, this dates it somewhat, for the fax to discuss the forecast. Imagine one surprise ,being an untrained observer, to read of weak to medium thermals, 5000ft base and light winds...that was Sat. Sun, no change, however, one did suggest he had a career change, to say ditch digging, or plate washing perhaps, or, better still, actually look out of the window. I subsequently then had to ignore some Wing Commander gravely informing me I was never, ever, to speak to such an important person in that manner again.

Reminds me of the time my Dad arrived at Manston one Sunday morning to find a layer of thick fog enveloping the airfield, with a well defined upper surface at ten feet AGL (inversion?). Off to the Met office goes my Dad and one of the other pilots to enquire of the Duty Met Office "when the fog will lift?". The met office was a windowless, save for a skylight in the ceiling, annex on the ground floor of the control tower, the Duty Met Office responded by asking why they were not flying, and referred to the clear blue skies outside by pointing to the skylight. It was then suggested by my Dad, that he should get out of the office more often

[ATNotts]

As an observation, the weather has changed over the weekend in UK, from a northerly to a more north-easterly airflow, and that has resulted in showers coming in across the eastern side of the country. At this time of year that brings a drop in temperature, and most of the showers away from coasts, you would normally expect to fall as snow, even to lower levels.

What is noticeable is that this isn't happening. I'm no meteorologist (though surprisingly without the spell checker I seem to have typed the word correctly!!) but the principal reason for rain rather than snow showers must surely be a warming of the North Sea, which has been talked about for some time, but it's the first time I have noticed what appears to be a consequence of such warming. It could of course be that there are other factors in play, but it appear to me as though, since most of the UK's coldest and snowiest weather generally arrived from the East, then at least for this winter any "beast from the east" may turn out to be somewhat less beastly that previously it might have been.

This looks to me very much like clear evidence of climate change in action, caused, as much climate change is, by warming seas.

[Jump Complete]

Originally Posted by ORAC

East Anglia - were the land sweeps from the valleys to the plateaus inches above....

At the risk of beginning to sound like Loose Rivets reminiscing.. I rode to Norwich City College up the A140 on my motorbike one morning that had a bitter North-Easterly. It comes from Russia (certainly feels like it) across the North Sea with nothing to stop it and is horribly cutting. Being a student, I didn’t have fancy warm gear, just a second hand leather jacket from Norwich covered market. After 20 minutes of so of misery, I realised I wasn’t just cold, but getting dangerously so. I stopped in Long Stratton and de-thawed under the blower in the entrance to a shop. I was late for my first lecture but to have kept on going would probably have resulted in an accident.