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Would UK be ready for 2030 new petrol car ban?

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Would UK be ready for 2030 new petrol car ban?

Old 14th Nov 2020, 07:45
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Would UK be ready for 2030 new petrol car ban?

Would UK be ready for 2030 new petrol car ban?
Boris Johnson is poised to announce that the government is bringing forward by a decade a ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars to 2030 from 2040, the BBC understands.

It's understood that new hybrid cars Ė those with electric motors as well as engines Ė will get a stay of execution: they will be banned from 2035.
So, as this an environmental measure, what's the total life environmental cost of an electric car - materials for the battery, disposal costs, additional electrical production capacity, cost of additional infrastructure?

Yes, I'm like most other people an electric car will meet my needs 99% of the time, but I occasionlly have to make a short notice 250 mile drive, minimal return stop and then return home. Not seen an electric car that can do that.
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Old 14th Nov 2020, 08:07
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Originally Posted by SWBKCB View Post
Yes, I'm like most other people an electric car will meet my needs 99% of the time, but I occasionlly have to make a short notice 250 mile drive, minimal return stop and then return home. Not seen an electric car that can do that.
Why is a 250 mile round trip a problem? My electric car will do around 300 miles, and I regularly do a trip of ~110 miles each way and come back with loads of charge left. Off the top of my head I think there are at least half a dozen models with around 250 to 300 miles range, from the Kia and Hyundai EVs up to several Tesla models. Rapid charging is now commonplace - I can add a couple of hundred miles or more of range in a 20 minute rest stop if I need to.

I've found that neither of us much likes to drive more than about 250 miles in a day now, this was the case before I switched to driving an EV. If we go somewhere further away we just choose somewhere to stop overnight, and recharge whilst stopped (I've yet to find anywhere we haven't been able to charge overnight). Makes for a more restful trip, and long trips, say up to Scotland and back (from SW England) become a part of the holiday.
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Old 14th Nov 2020, 08:18
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Sorry - poorly worded. I mean a 500 mile round trip. At short notice, drive 250 miles, minimal turn round and drive home 250 miles again.

Anyway, back to the main point - looking at the whole lifecycle, are electric cars better for the environment?
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Old 14th Nov 2020, 08:34
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In London, and many other cities, there are thousands of Victorian houses with no garage or driveway. The residents have to park in whatever road space they can find. Presumably someone will have to install roadside charging points along these roads. What is the cost of this and who will pay for it?
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Old 14th Nov 2020, 08:38
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I occasionally need a transit van. I dont own one.
I think you are asking the wrong question. The internal combustion engine for personal use has come to the end of its road. You can debate if electric is the complete answer but a change is coming. The alternative is not for you to keep your petrol car or not. The choice is change and keep personal mobility or take the bus. Thats your choice.
I have a kia. Regularly do day trips to Sheffield from Cheltenham. About 320 miles in total. I stop at some point for 20mins and have coffee. Thats all. Its a quiet , relaxing trip. The cars performance can beat most cars if needed.
When you do the full life comparison on energy use dont forget to look at the refining cost of your oil. The only difference on an electric car is the battery. They are recyclable.
A change from internal combustion for personal use is inevitable

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Old 14th Nov 2020, 08:38
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SWBKCB,

As far as what it will do to the environment is concerned, look up where the lithium salts come from. Mining for the raw materials needed for batteries on the scale needed will annihilate some environments.

It wonít matter though, because it wonít be in our back yards, will it?
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Old 14th Nov 2020, 08:39
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Originally Posted by Airclues View Post
In London, and many other cities, there are thousands of Victorian houses with no garage or driveway. The residents have to park in whatever road space they can find. Presumably someone will have to install roadside charging points along these roads. What is the cost of this and who will pay for it?
​​​​​​​People like me are on a yellow line as well. Croydon Council have been installing charging points here and there but as they have just gone bankrupt I can only hope the costs were centrally funded.
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Old 14th Nov 2020, 09:25
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Roadside charging for those with no off road parking is a chicken and egg situation. There are solutions, but until there is a viable market they won't really get rolled out. With no road side charging, people will be reluctant to buy EVs. However, only a small percentage of UK homes don't now have off road parking, something like 20% IIRC, so what will probably happen is that the market will shift to those that can charge at home or work initially, and this may then create enough demand for companies to start installing roadside charge points for those that cannot park at their homes. This is no big deal, think back 30 years to the time when most of the roads in the UK were being dug up to install cable TV, it's less work than that, by far.

Some councils, like Hampshire, have allowed people to run charge cables across pavements, using those brightly coloured cable protector mats. This seems to work for those who can park outside their homes. In the Netherlands they allow home owners to install slots across pavements to take a charge cable, or even the installation of a kerb stone access panel, with a cable outlet. Some lamp posts in London have been fitted with charge points, too. With more and more workplaces installing charge points, that gives another option for those that cannot charge at home.

Right now there are Tesla owners who only ever charge using public charge points, as they cannot charge at home. They seem to manage fine with a rapid charge when they go to the shops, etc. Rapid charging is now pretty fast. There are up to 350 kW rapid chargers around now, and my car can charge at up to 250 kW. 250 kW is equivalent to roughly 16 miles of added range every minute, so a 15 minute charge at that rate would add about 250 miles of range.

For some reason, when it comes to EVs, people only want to see downsides. Perhaps it was the same when petrol engined cars first came out. Maybe people back then complained about the smell, fumes, noise, inconvenience of having to fill the things with smelly petrol, etc. I've been driving plug in cars for about 7 years now, and wholly electric cars for a couple of years. I've never yet come close to running out of charge, and we've been on holiday to places like Scotland and the north of England, and this year were planning to tour Ireland (until this plague came along). Ireland is not as well endowed with public charge points as the UK, but I know from experience we'd have been fine. Might have needed to get the extension lead out for an overnight charge sometimes, but that's no big deal. Right now there are over 20,000 public charge points in the UK, in over 12,000 locations, so most of the country is covered. The only place not well endowed with charge points at the moment is mid-Wales, for some reason that area is a bit of a charging desert, a bit like Ireland.

Last edited by VP959; 14th Nov 2020 at 09:32. Reason: typo
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Old 14th Nov 2020, 09:35
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Range will almost certainly increase, but I'm not sure that in 15 years, the price would have reduced enough for the majority of people to afford to buy them. Wages are certainly not going to go up that much, so they will probably still be out of reach of the masses.

Then there are the taxes to consider, how do they compensate from the loss of petroleum tax revenues and keep people 'happy', particularly as there will have to be other tax rises to pay for Covid?

As we get closer to the date, I think that the environmental targets might slip somewhat. Besides, you still need the whole world to adopt it, not just nationally and there are too many countries where they do not have a cat in hell's chance of meeting the deadlines. It's a lot easier to sell if everyone is doing it.

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Old 14th Nov 2020, 09:36
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Households with more than one car will have a double problem when it comes to charging them.
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Old 14th Nov 2020, 09:45
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Most EV owners donít need to charge their cars every day, so even if you only have a single charging point / one-car drive, you can still alternate between cars. Also, more and more workplaces provide charging points, further reducing the need for home charging.
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Old 14th Nov 2020, 09:51
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Oh btw, if anyone is looking for a business opportunity, I suggest that getting into Charging Point installation would be worth thinking about. You are going to be extremely busy for at least the next 15 years.
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Old 14th Nov 2020, 09:52
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Roadside charging for those with no off road parking is a chicken and egg situation. There are solutions, but until there is a viable market they won't really get rolled out
Petrol stations are a commercial situation, roadside charging is a different matter as they need to be agreed with the local council and involve ripping up hundreds of thousands of miles of pavements and roads - and of course getting the national grid to change the entire local and national infrastructure to support them.

As a matter of comparison I would point out the installation of fibre optic cable for the internet. Virgin wanted to install fibre in my area, which would have involved the minor matter of installing new, slightly larger, roadside cabinets. Ten years later they still don’t have permission. (Nimbys, conservation areas etc etc).

Then of course you need the factories to manufacture the millions of miles of cabling and other components, and a vast, trained, work force to install them.

It’s a marvellous idea, but I just don’t see how we get from here to there in the proposed timescale, and the politicians involved probably don’t realise the scale of the problem.

I’m in one of the Georgian type houses mentioned above. Large building converted into about 23 apartments, no allocated parking and even with a permit you have to roam the area looking for an empty space. All the others in the street in a similar position being converted Into multiple apartments. They can’t even install smart meters because the gas meters are in an old coal-hole under the main road outside with no electricity and the electric meters are in an underground room on the other side of the building with no mobile phone signal.

I mention the above as one of the suggestions is that people can run extension leads out to the street and cover them over the pavement with rubber tunnels. It brings to mind the first wave of electrification....





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Old 14th Nov 2020, 09:56
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Think back to the time when the motor car first came out. Were they things that everyone could afford to own then? No, they weren't, they remained affordable only by those who were fairly well off for decades. It wasn't until around the 1950s/60/s that we had cars that were affordable, 50 odd years after they had first hit the streets. EVs will be similar. For the first couple decades they are going to be more expensive that petrol or diesel cars, but prices will drop as they become more popular. The same happened with diesel cars. I bought a diesel Peugeot 205 about 35 years ago, and it cost about 20% more than the petrol engined version. Within 10 years the diesel versions cost the same as the petrol models, just because demand for them increased.

As to why households with two or three EVs should have any problems I don't know. We have two charge points, so can charge two cars at once if we need to. The reality is we never need to charge two at once, nor would the majority of other households. take a house with three cars, each driving 10,000 miles a year. That's around 30 miles per day, or about 7.5 kWh each of charging per day. A home charge delivers about 7 kW usually, so it would be dead easy to just charge all three in turn, one night at a time. Three days driving for each would only be around 90 miles, less than half the range of most EVs currently available, and a usage that needs a bit over 3 hours charging per car if charged every three days.

Taxation needs thinking about, with the loss of fuel tax revenue. Charging my car at home, overnight at the cheap rate, costs me about 2.2p/mile. The last petrol engined car I had, that did about 55mpg, would cost about 10p/mile in fuel, about 68% of that being tax and duty to the government. Right now I'm probably dodging more than £400 a year in tax and duty I'd have paid on fuel, most people who switch to EVs would be dodging more tax and duty, roughly £650 to £700 per car on average, perhaps. That's going to hit the government coffers, so they will need to find other ways to get an equivalent amount of revenue. It's not feasible to tax electricity, as it would be near-impossible to collect, especially for those, like us, that generate a fair bit on sunny days, and use that to charge our cars for free.
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Old 14th Nov 2020, 10:04
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Petrol stations are a commercial situation, roadside charging is a different matter as they need to be agreed with the local council and involve ripping up hundreds of thousands of miles of pavements and roads - and of course getting the national grid to change the entire local and national infrastructure to support them.

As a matter of comparison I would point out the installation of fibre optic cable for the internet. Virgin wanted to install fibre in my area, which would have involved the minor matter of installing new, slightly larger, roadside cabinets. Ten years later they still don’t have permission. (Nimbys, conservation areas etc etc).

Then of course you need the factories to manufacture the millions of miles of cabling and other components, and a vast, trained, work force to install them.

It’s a marvellous idea, but I just don’t see how we get from here to there in the proposed timescale, and the politicians involved probably don’t realise the scale of the problem.

I’m in one of the Georgian type houses mentioned above. Large building converted into about 23 apartments, no allocated parking and even with a permit you have to roam the area looking for an empty space. All the others in the street in a similar position being converted Into multiple apartments. They can’t even install smart meters because the gas meters are in an old coal-hole under the main road outside with no electricity and the electric meters are in an underground room on the other side of the building with no mobile phone signal.
You're old enough to recall the great cable laying programme, when around 80% of all the roads in the UK were dug up to lay cable TV during the 1980s and 90s. Even the roads in the small village in the countryside where we lived at the time were dug up, and NTL cables laid in to every house that wanted it. By comparison, laying cables for roadside charge points in the relatively small number of areas with no off-road parking is a pretty trivial task, nothing like the scale of the cable TV programme, as it's mainly urban areas that need roadside charge points. It's nothing like hundreds of thousands of miles this time, perhaps a few thousand miles of urban roads at most.
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Old 14th Nov 2020, 10:05
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Petrol stations are a commercial situation, roadside charging is a different matter as they need to be agreed with the local council and involve ripping up hundreds of thousands of miles of pavements and roads - and of course getting the national grid to change the entire local and national infrastructure to support them.

As a matter of comparison I would point out the installation of fibre optic cable for the internet. Virgin wanted to install fibre in my area, which would have involved the minor matter of installing new, slightly larger, roadside cabinets. Ten years later they still donít have permission. (Nimbys, conservation areas etc etc).

Then of course you need the factories to manufacture the millions of miles of cabling and other components, and a vast, trained, work force to install them.

Itís a marvellous idea, but I just donít see how we get from here to there in the proposed timescale, and the politicians involved probably donít realise the scale of the problem.

Iím in one of the Georgian type houses mentioned above. Large building converted into about 23 apartments, no allocated parking and even with a permit you have to roam the area looking for an empty space.
I think the ultimate answer to the charging problem in city streets - especially in places with strong Green politics like Brighton - is that you are expected not to have a private car at all.
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Old 14th Nov 2020, 10:09
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Originally Posted by Sallyann1234 View Post
I think the ultimate answer to the charging problem in city streets - especially in places with strong Green politics like Brighton - is that you are expected not to have a private car at all.
I think that's already the view some are taking. My nephew is in his mid-30s, a London lad, through and through, and doesn't own a car, or see the need to own one. A friend who lives in Regent's Park pays more for his parking permit that I would for my car if it was on HP. He's paid a small fortune to park his car on the street outside his house for decades, and given the fact that he rarely uses the thing I have wondered quite why he bothers. He'd undoubtedly be better off just hiring a car, or getting a taxi, than owning the thing where he lives.
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Old 14th Nov 2020, 10:14
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Originally Posted by Sallyann1234 View Post
I think the ultimate answer to the charging problem in city streets - especially in places with strong Green politics like Brighton - is that you are expected not to have a private car at all.
Or use a portable generator - oh wait!

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Old 14th Nov 2020, 10:23
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Think back to the time when the motor car first came out. Were they things that everyone could afford to own then? No, they weren't, they remained affordable only by those who were fairly well off for decades. It wasn't until around the 1950s/60/s that we had cars that were affordable, 50 odd years after they had first hit the streets. EVs will be similar.
The point at issue here is that the government is suggesting a cut-off date just 9 years away....
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Old 14th Nov 2020, 10:25
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You're old enough to recall the great cable laying programme, when around 80% of all the roads in the UK were dug up to lay cable TV during the 1980s and 90s. Even the roads in the small village in the countryside where we lived at the time were dug up, and NTL cables laid in to every house that wanted it.
Dream on. Vast swathes of the country don't even have broadband faster than 1-4Mb, let alone cable TV and broadband....
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