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Are things worse than we could have imagined

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Are things worse than we could have imagined

Old 19th Sep 2020, 12:16
  #1 (permalink)  
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Are things worse than we could have imagined

I heard a recording of I believe a union rep briefing the Easy Gatwick staff on the the state of the company and it was dire.
In a nutshell, he it was worse than the managements worst case scenarios, aircraft with 22 passengers flying around.
Planes being sold and leased back and EZY could survive the winter but if its a bad summer next year its curtains......

LGW going from 400 FTE pilots to 220 for winter and 310 next summer which fared better than the other bases.
A small EZY base was going from 26 FTE to 12 although not sure where.

It sounded terrible.

I've also heard other UK carriers are now making more cuts - how much worse can it get.

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Old 19th Sep 2020, 13:00
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There is no recovery yet. The market is flat or even getting slightly worse. Everybody who had tried to wait things out now faces this brutal reality. Deeper cuts will be made.
To not sound overly pessimistic: Dr. Fauci is predicting availability of some trustworthy vaccination by year's end.
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Old 19th Sep 2020, 13:35
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Borders are closed, events canceled and people are officially discouraged from traveling.
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Old 19th Sep 2020, 13:50
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Crack open the whiskey fellas, it's gonna be a bumpy ride.
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Old 19th Sep 2020, 13:58
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I'm sorry to say that it's deliberate destruction of everything that we know. It's only going to get worse.
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Old 19th Sep 2020, 14:07
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Originally Posted by Less Hair View Post
There is no recovery yet. The market is flat or even getting slightly worse. Everybody who had tried to wait things out now faces this brutal reality. Deeper cuts will be made.
To not sound overly pessimistic: Dr. Fauci is predicting availability of some trustworthy vaccination by year's end.
The U.S. CDC director Dr. Redfield estimated widespread distribution, and effectiveness of the vaccine, won't be achieved until late 2nd qtr or into the 3rd qtr of 2021. They're just estimating but widespread distribution and application of the vaccine won't happen overnight once the vaccine is approved. Dr. Redfield estimated that it would take 6-9 months after approval to achieve widespread distribution. The Oxford vaccine trial apparently is trying to shortcut that timeline by starting production before approval anticipating that approval will be granted.
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Old 19th Sep 2020, 15:18
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As much as things are quite bad pretty much everywhere, at some places they are worse than at others. Sadly, the UK is closer to the severely affected end than to the other one. And, if travel policies don't change rather soon, it will be curtains not only for the EZY bases. How on Earth can you expect air transportation on any significant scale if you've literally hung a "CLOSED" sign over the border?

...and all that happens while pub crawls with zilch social distancing are still a thing...
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Old 19th Sep 2020, 16:28
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There are currently 27 vaccines in phase one, 15 in phase two and 9 in phase 3 testing. Only one of which is the AstraZeneca version in a joint Sweden-UK collaboration (calling the Oxford vaccine is a purely UK thing). One may rightfully be a tad apprehensive of the Russian and Chinese vaccines, but that still leaves a sizeable number which may make the cut in a trustworthy manner.


But the commercial aviation situation is currently very dire indeed, as the rebound has flattened out and the winter season is looming. Long-haul is still very much dead, leaving airlines plying that market extensively much more vulnerable (BA, EK, QR to name a few). Airlines with a large domestic market (US, China, India) are less exposed, but unless you're a pure freight operation, the forthcoming season is not looking good.

For European LCC it'll be a question of who can survive for the longest, hoping one or more of the competition will cease operation. DY is still very, very much in the ropes, and whilst their death has been prematurely announced several times, this time around it looks closer to bankruptcy than ever. With a market model based entirely on perpetual growth, operating in a shrining market doesn't bode well. Ryan and Easy are relatively well financed. As for Wizz, and I wouldn't bet either way on them surviving.
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Old 19th Sep 2020, 18:22
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Deliberte By Whom?

Originally Posted by topradio View Post
I'm sorry to say that it's deliberate destruction of everything that we know. It's only going to get worse.
Deliberate? Who? Let us know.
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Old 19th Sep 2020, 18:58
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It's the media who ,make their living off the dead and dyeing today. There is little to no balance against the livelihood of the masses. Without the monied media we would be making our own decisions based on street corner discussions like this forum where competing views are presented on multiple sides.
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Old 19th Sep 2020, 19:03
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Are things worse than we could have imagined

There are 2 things that should never be worried about; The past, and the inevitable. COVID19 has happened, that is in the past. What happens as a result in the future you have no influence over whatsoever. So, just get on with it and do your best.
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Old 19th Sep 2020, 19:09
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Once a vaccine is available, would demanding vaccination from airline pax make things near normal? I'd happily pay to jump the vaccination queue.
That's already required for some diseases if travelling to some areas.
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Old 19th Sep 2020, 19:25
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I update the forum now. I always read all aviation news related webpages and/or do the math.

The final calculations says that there are 30.000 jobless pilots which almost 15.000 of them without any experience or type rating (just out of flight school with 200-250 hours). (I am in the same team)

So, good luck to everyone who seeks for a seat in cockpit.

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Old 19th Sep 2020, 20:55
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The whole industry is on a precipice. For a number of airlines to survive the winter urgent government intervention is needed: to suspend APD, to promote passenger confidence, to open borders and to massively increase testing at airports. Perhaps consider an extension to the furlough scheme - or similar - for those working in aviation. Other sectors have had such help.
A second lockdown would be disastrous for the economy. We should learn to live with the virus - protect the elderly and vulnerable - whilst the rest of us carry on like the Swedish model before we all end up piloting ASDA vans. 90% of people who have died with COVID have been over 65. 50% over 83...
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Old 19th Sep 2020, 21:57
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Followed an interesting video conference a couple of days ago on the winter situation with a few Airlines CEOs... Travel restrictions imposed by States without coordination, variable quarantine policies , lack of availability of quick testing at departure,and a few other niceties are what prevent pax to fly , Current flights operated with current load factors cannot make money. North Atlantic traffic is dead. The impact of a vaccine is secondary , as it will take a year or more to have an impact on business and leisure travel and the question is survival pass this winter for most aircraft operators.
Cargo and GA business will survive, The pax ones that remain will become smaller operations . Low cost ? only Wizz at the moment has sustainable load factors and good route network and may be the winner of the pack . Interestingly they are one of the few, if not the only European airline to continue receiving and operating the new aircraft they ordered prior Covid but they are also among the worst in term of working conditions for their staff.. Cold times ahead ..
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Old 19th Sep 2020, 22:44
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From a political perspective, we're approaching a dire but interesting predicament. Money for most state aid programmes, furlough schemes etc is not in endless amounts. Hence many of said programmes being cut through the autumn. Given the absolutely dire effect the latter is likely to produce, will governments still have any bargaining power over any significant restrictions on business? It's one thing to restrict economic activity but offer at least something in exchange; it's something completely different to ban huge numbers of people from earning any living and not give them anything to survive on in the meantime. To many people, this will sadly (and scarily!) be an existential threat. And there's some chance that it will change some of the public perception of whether or not corona is the only thing that matters in life. Then we can expect some baby steps from mass hysteria towards a more rational approach. And rationality is something that's in severe shortage in governments and citizens alike these days.
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Old 20th Sep 2020, 00:08
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Instead of death numbers, letís look at LIFE numbers. Here is the percentage of people who have NOT died of COVID.
Belgium 99.944%
Spain 99.956%
Italy 99.957%
France 99.965%
UK 99.972%
Netherlands 99.975%
Sweden 99.980% (remember no lockdown etc)

The media should be stopped by only reporting actually cases they should also let people know how many are recovered etc.
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Old 20th Sep 2020, 00:09
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Tiny bit of good news......
Qantas offered a B787 flight to nowhere sightseeing over Uluru and the Barrier Reef.
It sold out in 10 minutes.
Aviation will come roaring back if we can get a vaccine.
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Old 20th Sep 2020, 00:28
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Total cases almost 31 million - total deaths almost 1 million, I am not getting 99% (with lockdowns & recommendations).

You might want to lock into Sweden a bit more - they did have a NO non essential travel "recommendation" that was later relaxed to "reasonable" travel within 2 km from home for some time. They still have restrictions/recommendations in place. The constitutions prevents it being called a lockdown.


Current -

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Old 20th Sep 2020, 08:14
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Sadiq Khan and a number of other officials are talking about new restrictions. The possibility of the entire UK plunging into a second national lockdown soon cannot be ruled out. With all this narrative, how many people will dare to go as far away from home as the survival of the airlines would require them to? People still remember what a mess it was in the spring, when international flights were cut at a very short notice and getting home was often a challenge even between EU states, not to mention places further afield where people were stuck for weeks on end waiting for repatriation.

Although I fear that this has all gone too far for any government to listen to any EC guidelines instead of unilaterally doing their own thing, there's some hope that the guidelines for intra-community travel due to be released on 13 October might help at least a tiny bit. Essentially, the EC is suggesting some form of guarantee that travel will not be suspended once again. But will many governments be in this?
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