Go Back  PPRuNe Forums > PPRuNe Social > Jet Blast
Reload this Page >

Running away from Covid

Jet Blast Topics that don't fit the other forums. Rules of Engagement apply.

Running away from Covid

Old 3rd Aug 2020, 12:36
  #1 (permalink)  
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: moraira,spain-Norfolk, UK
Age: 79
Posts: 350
Running away from Covid

Cowardly, I know, but on the numbers & trends UK is a dangerous place.
75-100 deaths per day in last week. Spain 3-5 in same period. Anyone
have a clue if the numbers are accurate ? Only by rumour I hear that UK
deaths are reported as Covid related if there was any possibility of Covid.
So is UK perhaps a lot safer than it seems ? Suggestions are that the
Government will confine oldies to their house. I don't like that. I'm convinced
that in the cold of winter there will be resurgence of Covid.

So, where to run to ? Can be far. English, Spanish, or Dutch speaking.
Needs to have health facilities and be warm. Recommendations appreciated.
I'm not sure a cruise is a good idea.
esa-aardvark is offline  
Old 3rd Aug 2020, 13:14
  #2 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Lemonia. Best Greek in the world
Posts: 1,699
There have been a number of reports on the internet - so one cannot verify them - that some Doctors signing med. certs. in care and hospital circumstances are auto adding the virus as a secondary cause. Primary or secondary, all mentions are added up in the UK system for counting covid deaths.
Ancient Observer is offline  
Old 3rd Aug 2020, 13:20
  #3 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Australia
Posts: 1,082
To help with your selection -

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/t...hs-per-million
currawong is offline  
Old 3rd Aug 2020, 13:31
  #4 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: West Wiltshire, UK
Age: 68
Posts: 390
The critical questions would seem to be how long are you prepared to be away from home and what level of medical care can you expect anywhere your choose to travel to. Sooner or later this virus is going to be prevalent everywhere on the planet, it's only a matter of time. Countries that seemingly have low levels of disease won't stay like that, sooner or later it will spread to them.

Time is key, because sooner or later we are going to have a means to combat this disease and bring it under control. Personally I'm not pinning too much hope on vaccines being the answer, simply because we haven't been able to produce very effective vaccines against other coronavirus illnesses in the past (although that might be related to a lack of investment). I suspect what might happen is that a range of antiviral medications might be developed, and that these will be able to control the disease much as has happened with HIV (another virus we've seemingly learned to live with, but not prevent).

If I had to guess, I'd say we are at least a year away from being able to start to bring this disease under control, more probably 2 to 3 years away.
VP959 is offline  
Old 3rd Aug 2020, 14:23
  #5 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: England
Posts: 356
Sallyann1234 is offline  
Old 3rd Aug 2020, 14:42
  #6 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: FL450
Posts: 480
You arrived at the check in terminal a little late. They have already pushed back, started engines and departed....

Kelly Hopper is offline  
Old 3rd Aug 2020, 15:06
  #7 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Southampton
Posts: 724
I’ve heard the suggestion that the over 50s could be forced to stay at home, but I’ve also heard that it should be the younger generation isolated, because too many of them cannot obey the current rules.

As for the current figures in the UK and the thought of running away, ask yourself exactly how many people you know who have had the virus and how many of them have died? I suspect that the numbers will not be that high.

That’s not to say that you shouldn’t take sensible precautions, but running away might be considered extreme.
Saintsman is offline  
Old 3rd Aug 2020, 15:29
  #8 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: West Wiltshire, UK
Age: 68
Posts: 390
Originally Posted by Saintsman View Post
As for the current figures in the UK and the thought of running away, ask yourself exactly how many people you know who have had the virus and how many of them have died? I suspect that the numbers will not be that high.
Interesting points. We live in a rural village, population around 500, about 10 miles from a small city. Prevalence of Covid-19 locally has so far been low, significantly below the national average, according to the regional data that's been published. Until yesterday I only knew of 3 cases, all in the same household nearby, and all of whom seem to have recovered with no lasting effect. Yesterday I heard from a old friend, who's been seriously ill with Covid-19 related heart disease, and it seems that he's part of a cluster of 8 known cases. He lives at the other end of the country to us, though. I don't know anyone that's died from this disease, and only one that has been hospitalised.

The above suggests that the risk is probably pretty low here. The snag is that the consequences from catching this disease seem to be significantly worse than from similar diseases, like seasonal influenza. I know a fair few people that have had seasonal influenza, far more than have had Covid-19, and none ever ended up in hospital, and none have ever had life-threatening after effects. It's the potential seriousness of Covid-19 that concerns me more than anything else. As someone nearer 70 than 60 I'm probably at significantly greater risk, plus there seems to be more information emerging as to the potentially life-threatening after effects, that can seemingly manifest themselves weeks after apparent recovery from the disease.
VP959 is offline  
Old 3rd Aug 2020, 16:41
  #9 (permalink)  
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: moraira,spain-Norfolk, UK
Age: 79
Posts: 350
Hello Saintsman,
usually I take a long (70-90 day) winter cruise.
It will take a good salesperson to sell me that just now.Still
I like to be warm in winter, so it will have to be a succession
of land holidays. Unfortunately I have no idea which country
publishes accurate data. I think UK data is collected accurately,
but is tainted by Doctors at the point of collection. Just occurred
to me, do they get paid for reporting Covid ?
esa-aardvark is offline  
Old 3rd Aug 2020, 18:15
  #10 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: UK
Posts: 3,968
I got back home in UK early hours Saturday from a week's holiday in Tenerife so now "enjoying" 14 days quarantining which being a retiree is a minor inconvenience.

I thought long and hard about whether to stay there longer as my observation and feeling was that it was safer there than in the UK. Only a few people in the resorts (so easy to remain (anti) socially distanced), spending most of the time outdoors which keeps the vitamin D levels topped up and the Spanish rigorously applying the usual hygiene rules.

esa-aardvark, my recommendation would be to head for the Canaries this winter - you might see me there also!
fireflybob is offline  
Old 4th Aug 2020, 13:00
  #11 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Japan
Posts: 771
Quick report from Japan if anyone is headed this way. They say they are willing to let business people in, if you have a private jet and promise not to stay longer than 72 hours. If you are already here and try to leave, even as a permanent resident, you will not be allowed back in, unless you are Japanese.

Facial covering (masks) is virtually universal, by common agreement between all. There is no-one demonstrating or trying to make a point about fascism or human rights. Occasional individual idiots are reported on the news acting as if they have not been keeping up at all. Human spacing is not so rigidly marked out or observed as in Europe, but everyone is aware of it. Sanitizers stand inside every entrance and are used religiously. Quiet recognition, resignation and acceptance are perhaps the best ways to describe it. I visited an old former Daimyo with a friend yesterday and in his living room all three of us wore masks throughout the conversation. Perhaps it is the thought of condemnation if someone does get ill later, and the social responsibility and possible recriminations that would accompany that.

There is frustration with the government coming up with this blessed 'Go To' campaign to stimulate the tourist economy, and then back-pedalling on it (Tokyo is now excluded, to enter or leave!) as the numbers in the second wave continue to rise. There is 'Obon', a big national holiday coming up mid-August, and the best the government can say is: "We are not telling people not to go back to their hometowns for the festival. Just be super careful." That is surely guaranteed to keep people at home, and the policy-makers must know it.

In Okinawa there was a big beach party for 4th July celebrations with US military and locals mixed, and now the islands have the worst incidence of Covid per head of population in Japan.

jolihokistix is online now  
Old 4th Aug 2020, 15:01
  #12 (permalink)  
601
 
Join Date: Mar 1999
Location: Brisbane, Qld, Australia
Age: 74
Posts: 1,231
I'm not pinning too much hope on vaccines being the answer, simply because we haven't been able to produce very effective vaccines against other coronavirus illnesses in the past (although that might be related to a lack of investment)
More a lack of disease as the SARS and MERS died out.
601 is offline  
Old 4th Aug 2020, 15:10
  #13 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: West Wiltshire, UK
Age: 68
Posts: 390
Originally Posted by 601 View Post
More a lack of disease as the SARS and MERS died out.
We first identified four other coronaviruses that cause human respiratory disease decades earlier, as a part of the work done at the CCU at Harnham Down. It was part of a programme aimed at producing vaccines for the common cold, where it was found that around 20% of "common colds" were caused by coronaviruses, with the remainder being caused by rhinoviruses. All attempts to produce a vaccine, over a period of over 40 years, failed.
VP959 is offline  
Old 4th Aug 2020, 15:49
  #14 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Urcal (Almeria)
Posts: 41
Hello esa-ardvark, I live 4km from Autovia A7 and from there 2km from the Murcia border. You can read all about covid news in www.ideal.es/almeria ,the gist of which is that most of the disease has occurred in Almeria City and 2 south coast resorts,until the holiday hooligans arrived in Mojacar. My nearest neighbour is 500 mtrs away and I can't think of anywhere in the world where I would be safer. If you have more questions,why not send me a pm? Cafesolo.
cafesolo is offline  
Old 5th Aug 2020, 08:58
  #15 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Livin de island life
Posts: 475
Is it actually bad? Less than 80 people a day are dying of/with covid in the UK each day now. Out of 1900 people who normally die every day.........they have to die “of” something now because “natural causes” don’t kill you in the modern world. I don’t know how governments are going to dig themselves out of this hole now. No vaccine and a disease that is still in circulation...........should we all just curl up and die before something gets us?
flyingfemme is offline  
Old 5th Aug 2020, 09:39
  #16 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: La Rochelle.
Age: 45
Posts: 507
Originally Posted by Ancient Observer View Post
There have been a number of reports on the internet - so one cannot verify them - that some Doctors signing med. certs. in care and hospital circumstances are auto adding the virus as a secondary cause. Primary or secondary, all mentions are added up in the UK system for counting covid deaths.
My 98-year old mother died in a care home in Sussex in April. The death certificate states the following:
Cause of death
1. **** Infection
2. Possible Covid-19 with frailty of age.
clareprop is offline  
Old 5th Aug 2020, 16:28
  #17 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Bedford, UK
Age: 67
Posts: 1,273
For all the shouting, the cumulative UK excess death toll is just about the number of people in a large football stadium, this from a population of 60+ million. Hardly a death trap or the black death.
Average IFR is likely less than 1.2% but there is the possibility of a nasty bout and long term implications for a few of the 98.8%.
However, for those with suppressed immune systems or ' co- morbidities' ( diabetes seems a particular risk raiser), or waiting on essential surgery, it's a b*gger.
Mr Optimistic is offline  

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service - Do Not Sell My Personal Information -

Copyright 2021 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.