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Hong Kong -- What does the future hold?

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Hong Kong -- What does the future hold?

Old 3rd Jul 2020, 16:51
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Hong Kong -- What does the future hold?

Pre Hong Kong protests last year I would transit through HKG many times a year, but those protests contributed to my switch to Japan, Korea or Thailand as transit points more often. About 3 years ago I had stopped using any airports in mainland China as transit points, for several reasons, including not being comfortable with random acts of detention / imprisonment by the Chinese gov't. With the new security law in place in Hong Kong I will (when and if Covid-19 restrictions are lifted and concerns are mitigated sufficiently) now also entirely omit HKG as a transit point.

As the Chinese government takes a stronger, more assertive stance, what do you think lies ahead for Hong Kong not just for HKG as a previously key Asian transit airport for international travelers but for trade, tourism, etc.? Yes, I know China is flexing its muscles in many areas right now but my question relates specifically to Hong Kong.
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Old 3rd Jul 2020, 17:03
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It will depend how important the autonomous zone of HK is to the PRC. Somehow, I am left with the feeling that the PRC are more irritated by the audacity and tenacity of the protests to their Borg-like mentality, than they are to keeping HK as a special part of the country, as a benefit to the whole. That means that they will clamp down even more strongly than they have, thus causing a flight of talent/wealth to other countries.

Those who cannot afford to leave will realise that they are in an uneven fight and become openly docile to survive. A sad state of affairs, it could have been so different, but you cannot change the mentality of power that wishes to control.
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Old 3rd Jul 2020, 19:31
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I’m fairly certain that, if they can get out, there will be a mass exodus to the UK (though I’m not sure where they will go).

Those with money will be looking at ways of getting their money out ASAP.

Its never going to go back to what it was before.
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Old 3rd Jul 2020, 19:45
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I am glad the UK government is extending citizenship to these folk, lets hope the usual Tory caveats do not apply (meaning very few actually succeed in their application).

Worked with a few HK boys (no girls alas) over the years, good sense of humour and excellent ethics, they are also annoyingly extremely polite which puts me to shame for sure, the only other contribution I can add is that they are to a man (again don't know any woman) pretty sharp dressers, unlike me, and on more than one occasion they have chastised me gently for my lack of style.

Good guys.
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Old 3rd Jul 2020, 20:52
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Like most socialists, the thing the CCP can't stand is dissent. I'm sure they can do without a few square miles of territory, even a few million entrepreneurs. But they can't abide the criticism of their evil form of government.
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Old 3rd Jul 2020, 21:00
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Never knew the attraction other than shopping for slightly cheaper stuff.
Most of everything else Communist HK is needed for can be e-mailed or tele-conferenced.
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Old 3rd Jul 2020, 21:22
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Was there in 1984, found HKers well educated, well motivated, polite and savvy. Those with money might have other options than the UK. Wouldn't put it past the CCP to put some of their own amongst the emigres.
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Old 4th Jul 2020, 00:28
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'The legislation’s Article 38 says the rules also apply to infractions that occur anywhere outside Hong Kong, committed by foreign citizens.

Activists in Canada call it an attack on their activities that at the very least will keep them from visiting Hong Kong, and could lead to more intimidation here.

“It sets the stage for an unprecedented, massive assault on the civil rights of Hong Kongers, as well as all citizens of the international community,” said Gloria Fung of the Toronto-based Canada Hong Kong Link. “This is very scary.”

The national security law is touted by Beijing as a tool to restore order to Hong Kong after mass protests last year that were mostly peaceful, but sometimes erupted into violence or brought the city to a standstill. Critics see it as a means to crack down on the enclave’s freedoms, which are often used to lambaste the Chinese government. It prohibits not only “terrorism,” but subverting the Chinese state, espousing Hong Kong separatism and lobbying foreign governments. The offences are defined only vaguely, the penalties are as stiff as life in prison.

And Article 38 says the law applies to offences perpetrated “outside the (Hong Kong special administrative region) by a person who is not a permanent resident of the Region.”

It’s unclear exactly how Beijing will interpret the section, but Western experts are worried.

“I know of no reason not to think it means what it appears to say: (Beijing) is asserting extraterritorial jurisdiction over every person on the planet,” said a blog post by Donald Clarke, a George Washington University professor specializing in Chinese law. “If you’ve ever said anything that might offend the PRC or Hong Kong authorities, stay out of Hong Kong. ”

Margaret Lewis, a law professor and China expert at New Jersey’s Seton Hall University, noted the threat posed by the national security legislation is greatest for actual residents of Hong Kong, and said it remains to be seen how Article 38 will be interpreted. But it seems like a weapon to limit overseas criticism.'
National Post
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Old 4th Jul 2020, 04:28
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I love the place, the buzz and vivacity makes it unique. I would never live there but I have a lot of mates who do, or did and whenever I go there is always someone to catch up with. There are some great bars and restaurants, and my wife informs me good shopping, whatever that is. We generally go for Christmas, as it's usually dry and mild, a welcome change from here. But will we ever go back now??

As the previous poster notes, Article 38 applies to the whole planet so given my views on the Xi dictatorship, probably never again.
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Old 4th Jul 2020, 09:20
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I enjoyed HK, but won't be going again.

​​​​​​President for life Xi has decided that China no longer needs the subtle approach, they are now strong enough to be as blunt and brutal as they wish.
It's back to the Tiananmen Square days.
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Old 4th Jul 2020, 12:08
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I think the future of HK is fairly obvious. The question is where will the next financial hub be?
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Old 4th Jul 2020, 12:40
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Hong Kong will become just another Chinese port city. It was a great prize when they got it back in 1997 but now the rest of the country has moved ahead and HKG isn’t the gateway into China anymore. There isn’t much you can do there that you can’t do cheaper in the mainland.
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Old 4th Jul 2020, 16:54
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Originally Posted by hiflymk3 View Post
Wouldn't put it past the CCP to put some of their own amongst the emigres.
Good point, and most certain to happen.
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Old 5th Jul 2020, 04:07
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I am glad the UK government is extending citizenship to these folk
UK Renegs on 1997 Agreement

"The Australian"
3rd July
An infuriated Beijing says Britain promised not to grant full citizenship rights to Honk Kongers ahead of the 1997 handover.

China's London Embassy said on Thursday, "If the British side makes unilateral changes to the relevant practice, it will breach its own position and pledges as well as international law and basic norms governing international relations. We firmly oppose this and reserve the right to take corresponding measures".
Sheesh, you can't trust anyone these days, but really, I'm confused, International law, unilateral changes, since when were they ever a Chinese consideration? I obviously missed it.
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Old 5th Jul 2020, 09:03
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Translation:
"We'll do what the hell we like, but we reserve the right to wave the finger at you."
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Old 5th Jul 2020, 09:13
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Whether we like it or not I see this as some first step towards some escalation in Chinese foreign politics. It's not just about harvesting some quiet corona moment where everybody else is busy with other issues. They seem to want to show they don't care anymore. This might require some strategic U-turn in the West's political relations and trade with them one day. South China Sea, Taiwan, Africa, Himalayas, military buildup, human rights. Connect the dots. It will be confrontation not cooperation it seems. The big picture is a bit concerning I have to say.
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Old 5th Jul 2020, 12:25
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China used to need HK and HKG.
It no longer needs them.
China will do whatever it wants with HK.
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Old 5th Jul 2020, 13:44
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I suspect that it's mostly to do with Chinese domestic politics.
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Old 6th Jul 2020, 01:38
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Originally Posted by megan View Post
UK Renegs on 1997 Agreement

"The Australian"
3rd JulySheesh, you can't trust anyone these days, but really, I'm confused, International law, unilateral changes, since when were they ever a Chinese consideration? I obviously missed it.
The UK didn't grant citizenship or a pathway to citizenship on the understanding that the handover agreement would mean that, for the next 50 years, Hong Kong would remain as it was; there was therefore no need to worry about putting a bunch of British Overseas Nationals into a dictatorial, communist regime. Unfortunately the communist dictatorship has reneged on their side of the agreement, so the only reasonable course of action is to make sure that the BNOs that have been let down, and their descendents, are put into the same position that they would have been without the handover agreement that has been ripped up by the CCP.
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Old 6th Jul 2020, 22:24
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Seems to my mind very parallel to Germany in the early 1930s after the Nazi came to power. Another very valid reasons to ban Huawei from ALL 5 G contracts....and to start looking at all imports for conformance with EC standards, such as the EMC Directive - which most of them don't, not having the necessary filter components fitted to the printed circuit boards!
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