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Hong Kong -- What does the future hold?

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Hong Kong -- What does the future hold?

Old 7th Jul 2020, 07:12
  #21 (permalink)  
 
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The Brexit fans are going to love the idea of three million Hong Kong folk coming to the UK.
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Old 7th Jul 2020, 07:47
  #22 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by N707ZS View Post
The Brexit fans are going to love the idea of three million Hong Kong folk coming to the UK.
Yet another miscalculation by a inept Government, I agree. It basically amounts to interference in another Nation state, and the Chinese have made it quite clear they wont be taking any bull from us. And, yes, practically speaking it would be a disaster if we had to accommodate anything like those numbers, as we are already full to the brim.

I just cant fathom what these idiot politicians think, the Chinese hold ALL the cards, they can basically break our economy at the stroke of a pen simply by flexing their economic muscle. If it ever turned hot we'd be even more screwed.

Instead of mouthing off and making promises we cant keep, we should quietly and deliberately be disentangling ourselves from Chinese investments, making sure they have no economic hold over us at least.
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Old 7th Jul 2020, 08:31
  #23 (permalink)  
 
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I'm sure that many of the HKers who took up the citizenship pathway would just use the passport as a springboard to other countries and not stay in the UK physically for long periods.
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Old 7th Jul 2020, 08:53
  #24 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by N707ZS View Post
The Brexit fans are going to love the idea of three million Hong Kong folk coming to the UK.
Very few of those three million are likely to come. And those who are keen enough to make such a life-changing move will doubtless make a useful contribution to our society.
If the 'Brexit fans' are upset, that will just be a bonus.
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Old 7th Jul 2020, 08:57
  #25 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by radeng View Post
Seems to my mind very parallel to Germany in the early 1930s after the Nazi came to power. Another very valid reasons to ban Huawei from ALL telecomms contracts....and to start looking at all imports for conformance with EC standards, such as the EMC Directive - which most of them don't, not having the necessary filter components fitted to the printed circuit boards!
Fixed that for you.
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Old 7th Jul 2020, 17:14
  #26 (permalink)  
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Taking a cue from what krismiler and Ancient Observer posted, I'm surprised that over on the Fragrant Harbour forum, no one is addressing the "elephant in the room" when talking about CX. There are threads and chats about working conditions, management issues, housing, etc but nobody seems ready to admit, or even suggest, that CX, as we've known it, is surely dead. In my circle of friends and colleagues, not one person will now choose to fly on a carrier that will land or transit in Hong Kong, for the same reason that people have been avoiding transit in mainland China for the past couple of years. Article 38 is, as suggested by others, the beginning of the end for HK as it was. And I agree that it seems the gov't of PRC are clearly aware of that, they just don't care..
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Old 7th Jul 2020, 19:19
  #27 (permalink)  
 
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What's the balance of trade between the UK and the PRC?
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Old 8th Jul 2020, 03:11
  #28 (permalink)  
 
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I'm surprised that over on the Fragrant Harbour forum, no one is addressing the "elephant in the room" when talking about CX
Prudence, else they may find themselves subject to the new law I'd guess.
What's the balance of trade between the UK and the PRC?
In 2018:
  • UK exports to China were worth 22.6 billion; imports from China were 44.7 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of -22.1 billion.
  • The UK had a small surplus with China on trade in services, outweighed by a deficit on trade in goods.
  • China accounted for 3.5% of UK exports and 6.6% of all UK imports.
  • China was the UK’s sixth largest export market and fourth largest source of imports. UK trade with increased rapidly since the turn of the century – in 1999 China was the UK’s 26th largest export market and 15th largest source of imports.
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk...ings/cbp-7379/
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Old 8th Jul 2020, 12:30
  #29 (permalink)  
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We have relatives in Hong Kong who already have UK citizenship. They retired back home after selling their Chinese Take-away business in Scotland. I don't think they're too worried about the change in HK law though, as they are a quiet elderly couple with no political history. They just kept their heads down and got on with 50 years of selling their sweet & sour prawns etc. with chips ( ...well it was Scotland )
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Old 9th Jul 2020, 05:53
  #30 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by LGS6753 View Post
Like most socialists, the thing the CCP can't stand is dissent.

The CCP is not socialist! It's about as socialist (and tolerant of dissent) as the National Socialist German Workers' Party was in the 1930's.
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Old 9th Jul 2020, 06:51
  #31 (permalink)  
 
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Aren't they Marxist-Leninist in philosophy ?
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Old 9th Jul 2020, 07:23
  #32 (permalink)  
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https://www.theguardian.com/australi...adition-treaty

Australia offers five-year extension to Hong Kong visa holders and cancels extradition treaty

https://www.newsweek.com/china-threa...it-see-1516247

China Threatens Canada After Trudeau Suspends Hong Kong Agreements: 'Just Wait and See'
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Old 9th Jul 2020, 08:19
  #33 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by grizzled View Post
Taking a cue from what krismiler and Ancient Observer posted, I'm surprised that over on the Fragrant Harbour forum, no one is addressing the "elephant in the room" when talking about CX. There are threads and chats about working conditions, management issues, housing, etc but nobody seems ready to admit, or even suggest, that CX, as we've known it, is surely dead. In my circle of friends and colleagues, not one person will now choose to fly on a carrier that will land or transit in Hong Kong, for the same reason that people have been avoiding transit in mainland China for the past couple of years. Article 38 is, as suggested by others, the beginning of the end for HK as it was. And I agree that it seems the gov't of PRC are clearly aware of that, they just don't care..
I found that strange to until I realised that most living in Hong Kong will now be pretty reticent to post on social media/forums absolutely anything that could be construed as negative to the regime for fear of the 3am knock at the door.
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Old 9th Jul 2020, 10:25
  #34 (permalink)  
 
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China Threatens Canada After Trudeau Suspends Hong Kong Agreements: 'Just Wait and See'
They did the same to Australia. In their level 1 English they stated that Australia was going to drop a rock on its foot. Guess I wont be visiting HK or China anytime soon.
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Old 9th Jul 2020, 11:09
  #35 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sallyann1234 View Post
Very few of those three million are likely to come.
If the 'Brexit fans' are upset, that will just be a bonus.
Except for those very politically active protest leaders there's no real incentive for 3 million Hong Kongers to come to the UK.
Hong Kong GDP per capita is 20% higher than the UK
COVID death rate approx 600 times higher in UK
Average Life Expectancy 3.5 years longer in HK
Crime (murder) rate 45% lower in HK than the UK
About double the number of hospital beds per capita in HK
Better food.....
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Old 9th Jul 2020, 12:27
  #36 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by dr dre View Post
Except for those very politically active protest leaders there's no real incentive for 3 million Hong Kongers to come to the UK.
Hong Kong GDP per capita is 20% higher than the UK
COVID death rate approx 600 times higher in UK
Average Life Expectancy 3.5 years longer in HK
Crime (murder) rate 45% lower in HK than the UK
About double the number of hospital beds per capita in HK
Better food.....
Interesting points dr dre. You do wonder how much those factors you highlight are outweighed by restrictions on civil liberties though?

Or is it a classic case of we only know what the bbc feeds us, and actually the vast majority of the population are perfectly fine with things as they are?
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Old 9th Jul 2020, 12:31
  #37 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by andrewn View Post
Interesting points dr dre. You do wonder how much those factors you highlight are outweighed by restrictions on civil liberties though?

Or is it a classic case of we only know what the bbc feeds us, and actually the vast majority of the population are perfectly fine with things as they are?
Even if you were the most upstanding citizen ever if you went overnight from the U.K. as we know it now to a state controlled totalitarian regime I think you would be at least looking at options.
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Old 9th Jul 2020, 12:36
  #38 (permalink)  
 
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As I see it "What does the future hold?"

There is no doubt but that Hong Kong has been exceptionally successful in virtually running it's own affairs for the last 20 odd years but the question is what will happen to that prosperity in the future.

Any prosperity that accrues to Hong Kong going forward will now be subsumed into the overall Chinese economy. Therefore I predict that in the future, the prosperity of Hong Kong will decline quickly when the CCM begins to claw the money away. It will be the Greater China in all but name only, and even that won't last.

IG



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Old 9th Jul 2020, 12:53
  #39 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by dr dre View Post
Except for those very politically active protest leaders there's no real incentive for 3 million Hong Kongers to come to the UK.
Hong Kong GDP per capita is 20% higher than the UK
COVID death rate approx 600 times higher in UK
Average Life Expectancy 3.5 years longer in HK
Crime (murder) rate 45% lower in HK than the UK
About double the number of hospital beds per capita in HK
Better food.....
Even the politically active will be reluctant to come here if they have to leave vulnerable family behind.
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Old 9th Jul 2020, 13:44
  #40 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by andrewn View Post
Interesting points dr dre. You do wonder how much those factors you highlight are outweighed by restrictions on civil liberties though?

Or is it a classic case of we only know what the bbc feeds us, and actually the vast majority of the population are perfectly fine with things as they are?
There are about 150 million Chinese tourists who travel outside of China each year to countries all over the world as tourists (prior to Covid of course). All of them return to China of their own free will. Why would they if it's such a totalitarian nightmare, as the BBC says it is?

To say that Hong Kongers are "perfectly fine" with the situation is a misnomer, but there'd be few citizens of any country who are 100% fine with things in their country. There are quite a few Hong Kongers who aren't happy with the unrest and want things taken care of before their economic livelihoods are greatly affected.

But basically my main point is that 3 million Hong Konger's aren't going to be "fleeing" HK for the UK, or any other country. Maybe a few of the die hard protest leaders, but when people claim asylum for political persecution it generally is those who are directly being persecuted. For every one else in HK if order is restored and the economy picks back up then it'll be back to business as usual. There's no widespread genocide or repression, no widespread poverty or unemployment, none of the usual things that make people flee as refugees. Especially to a nation where there is less wealth, more COVID and crappier food.....
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