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App/Software to indicate danger level of a given flight?

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App/Software to indicate danger level of a given flight?

Old 27th Jan 2020, 22:00
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App/Software to indicate danger level of a given flight?

Advance apologies for aviation content in JB. I really don't know where else to put this.

Every year we read of crashes at the private and general aviation end of the spectrum which had all the hallmarks of an accident waiting to happen. Usually there is a combination of bad weather, pilot inexperience/lack of currency, a pilot or passengers with urgent appointments, and sometimes an aircraft with marginal performance for the given payload/flight duration.

If an app existed which could drag in weather for the intended route and the aircraft type by entering the aircraft registration, take off location and destination (plus route if known), it could then indicate the level of risk. With the cooperation of the pilot, his/her currency and experience could also be entered.

Such an app could be used both by would be passengers and family to offer slightly more informed guidance than none at all, and also by pilots being pressurised (bullied?) by passengers/employers to make a flight they know they should not.

Does such a thing exist already? If not, could it work and would it?
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Old 27th Jan 2020, 22:08
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Sounds like a totally infeasible and pointless idea to me.
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Old 27th Jan 2020, 22:37
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Originally Posted by DaveReidUK View Post
Sounds like a totally infeasible and pointless idea to me.
Agree, and having decided that there is a risk ​​​​​, say 5%, are you going to abort your vital, essential, urgent trip?

Pressonitis is a known and prevalent causes of crashes. The solution is not an App that states the bleeding obvious but simple common sense. If you need the App, would you have the common sense to evaluate it?

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Old 27th Jan 2020, 22:45
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Let's assume there was such an app, and the pilot looked at it and decided that it was OK to fly. Then, let's suppose the aircraft crashed. How much liability insurance would the app developer need to pay the claims? Would you like to be that developer?
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Old 28th Jan 2020, 06:00
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There is such an app, at least for the C172 and some other aircraft https://apps.apple.com/us/app/c172-p...ce/id741721884. Primarily it is a very nice tool to calculate a whole bunch of parameters associated with a/c performance. However, it also attempts to provide some kind of overall risk factor taking into account many (perhaps 25 total, including all of those listed in the OP) parameters, including the ones you used for the performance calculations but also a whole lot more including human factors. The final readout is a kind of 'riskometer'

To be honest, it is rarely of much use to me because each of the parameters is rarely as binary as they might seem, and it is really hard to see how they interact. I think there is no attempt to model that interaction; they just add a risk factor for each. But I do use it in case it might flag something I have forgotten or raise my awareness of some aspect.
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Old 28th Jan 2020, 06:53
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Q: Are you intending to fly?

A: Yes

Response: Flying is dangerous, stay on the ground.
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Old 28th Jan 2020, 07:30
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And driving even more so, don't go to an airport.
Is there an app that can calculate the danger when you book an Uber?
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Old 28th Jan 2020, 07:30
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Originally Posted by Mechta View Post
Advance apologies for aviation content in JB. I really don't know where else to put this.
BTW. Although I am a relative newbie on PPRuNe, I believe there is no problem with aviation content here when JB is the most appropriate place.
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Old 28th Jan 2020, 09:24
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Originally Posted by meadowrun View Post
And driving even more so, don't go to an airport.
Is there an app that can calculate the danger when you book an Uber?
You raise an associated risk. Airport arrival anxiety.

While you expected departure is fixed getting from the car park, checking in, security and getting to the gate are all unknowns. Add in unknown traffic hold ups and you have a high risk journey. Once we had a 37 mile diversion, an unknown long stay car park, shuttle transfer, and arrived in a muck sweat having exhausted all our flex time.

Is there any stats for missed flights due to late arrival at your airport?

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Old 28th Jan 2020, 11:03
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As soon as I saw this thread these came to mind-
“Joo Janta 200 Super-Chromatic Peril Sensitive Sunglasses have been specially designed to help people develop a relaxed attitude to danger. At the first hint of trouble, they turn totally black and thus prevent you from seeing anything that might alarm you.”

Courtesy of Douglas Adams and The Hitchhikers guide to the Galaxy.
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Old 28th Jan 2020, 22:30
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It may help to distinguish between absolute and relative risk for the flight.
Suppose you are thinking of going with Shonky Air which has a fatal accident rate 10 times the industry average.
Google tells me that the fatal accident rate for airlines is in the region of one in a million flights.
This means the risk with Shonky Air is 1 in 100,000 flights.
As other posters have said, you are probably in more danger just getting to and from the airport.

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Old 28th Jan 2020, 23:29
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You can get items that download the weather to the cockpit, see

Airborne Satellite Weather Data


https://www.euroga.org/forums/online...s/10780?page=3

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Old 29th Jan 2020, 02:02
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I know of an EMS fixed wing operator who fly single pilot IMC who use a system to calculate the risks attached to a particular flight. Pilots are on duty for twelve hours, those doing the night shift have fully equipped bedrooms for sleep, so may have to be roused from sleep to fly a mission. Don't know if it's software or what, but if you exceed a certain score you don't go.
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Old 29th Jan 2020, 03:08
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Does such a thing exist already? If not, could it work and would it?
Unlikely. Useless to most people, almost all of the time.


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Old 29th Jan 2020, 20:12
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Originally Posted by double_barrel View Post
BTW. Although I am a relative newbie on PPRuNe, I believe there is no problem with aviation content here when JB is the most appropriate place.
You are correct.
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Old 30th Jan 2020, 09:55
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Originally Posted by megan View Post
I know of an EMS fixed wing operator who fly single pilot IMC who use a system to calculate the risks attached to a particular flight. Pilots are on duty for twelve hours, those doing the night shift have fully equipped bedrooms for sleep, so may have to be roused from sleep to fly a mission. Don't know if it's software or what, but if you exceed a certain score you don't go.
That sounds like a Flight Risk Assessment Tool or FRAT, which may be part of your SMS (see here: https://www.faa.gov/news/safety_brie...opic_16-12.pdf). Multiple versions of this exist, mainly to provide a quantification of risk for operators who fly very different missions from day to day, such as EMS, inspections, agricultural etcetera. While you can use this to provide an insight into how risky a specific operation is going to be, related to other operations within your portfolio, the outcome is not an absolute number that you can relate to other activities.

The app/software to evaluate the risk of a given flight already exists. It is called a 'pilot' and comes in the form of a life-sized human or humans that you only have to feed on occasion and treat with kindness to get a complete assessment of the weather, route, operator's capabilities and experience and so on.
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Old 31st Jan 2020, 13:24
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Treating pilots with kindness is usually a mistake. If you do, they simply regard you as a softie, and start asking for more money. (M. Keegan School of Airline Management, Lesson #486.)
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Old 31st Jan 2020, 14:30
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The app/software to evaluate the risk of a given flight already exists. It is called a 'pilot' and comes in the form of a life-sized human or humans that you only have to feed on occasion and treat with kindness to get a complete assessment of the weather, route, operator's capabilities and experience and so on
Only trouble is that piece of software is given to highly dangerous crashes in its operating routine at times, and doesn't have the ability to reboot on occasions, Kobe Bryant being a recent casualty.
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Old 31st Jan 2020, 15:07
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No you daft app, MY POPULATION has a chance of crashing.
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Old 31st Jan 2020, 17:12
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Originally Posted by Mechta View Post
Does such a thing exist already? If not, could it work and would it?
For some reason, your OP reminds me of the 1983 movie Blue Thunder.

Icelan: He checks his sanity with a wrist watch!
Jack Braddock: What do you check yours with, a dipstick?
There is a limit to the applicability of "there's an app for that" and I think that you have found one of the edges there, Mechta.
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