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Coronavirus: The Thread

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Coronavirus: The Thread

Old 28th Nov 2021, 17:51
  #17801 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
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Re: Follow Your Nose: A Key Clue to Understanding and Treating COVID-19

Originally Posted by DaveReidUK View Post
That sounds like it might be worth a read.

Any chance of a working link?
Sorry about that, there is a "download article" link on:
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles...21.747744/full
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Old 28th Nov 2021, 18:08
  #17802 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Peter H View Post
Re: Follow Your Nose: A Key Clue to Understanding and Treating COVID-19



Sorry about that, there is a "download article" link on:
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles...21.747744/full
I believe the Sunday Telegraph article contains a simplified explanation with a scattering of analogy but alas, no pictures.
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Old 28th Nov 2021, 18:12
  #17803 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by visibility3miles View Post
They paper essentially says that Vitamin D can help the immune system shutdown, or at least slow down, and not cas irreparable damage to the lungs by causing too much inflammation.

I know someone with long Covid whose lungs/chest hurt so much that he was takin into Ibuprofen daily for nearly ten months, and still has it kick up again when he’s exposed to people who may be infected with covid. It becomes almost an autoimmune reaction, or something like a cytokine storm where your immune system goes into overdrive and causes harm.
Thanks, I got that much from the flier.

If you could provide a clear layperson-level explanation of Fig2(i) p4 I would be really grateful.


Very sorry indeed to hear about your friend.

Technically really interesting if it's aggravated with contact with active covid cases.

I had the mildest of long-term issues after what I assume was a totally run-of-the-mill glandular fever (teenage Epstein-Barr) in 60s, and have since watched with interest/dismay the lack of attention/belief "long" syndromes get from the medical profession. Just maybe this will be a turning point.
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Old 28th Nov 2021, 19:07
  #17804 (permalink)  
 
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Think Lyme disease is in the same boat.
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Old 28th Nov 2021, 21:15
  #17805 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Dannyboy39 View Post
These rules are in place in Ireland - their case numbers are double what they are in the U.K. and almost getting to a point of rising exponentially.

As much as I hate BoJo and his band of mates, vaccine passports and face masks make very little difference.
I have been out working all day (covid-19 related) so it has taken time to come back on this.

The WHO and many governments and their scientific advisors around the world have concluded that contrary to your view face masks do make a difference, but probably more not for those who aren't wearing them than to those who are. I were a selfish [email protected] I'd take the view that because 99% of others in Tesco weren't wearing a face covering I wouldn't either because it won't save me from contracting covid-19. As it is I do, because I don't want to pass the virus on to others though being asymptomatically infected (even the idiots who can't ab @rsed to get vaccinated for what ever vacuous reasons and who probably deserve to be inflicted with a rough dose) as they may pass it on to more people.

The 5 - 11 year olds are contracting Covid-19 in greater proportions to all other groups in society because they aren't masked up and, because of their age, are incapable of social distancing and don't wear face coverings. In older age groups, such as pub and club goers (and as I am watching at it at the time darts fans!) the chances of passing covid-19 through society is all the more likely by people who are drinking to excess singing and dancing without masks and controlling so far as is possible transmission by preventing access to heavily populated enclosed venues is a sensible and obvious line of defence.

I have also just read that the government is hoping that people will following guidance (I thought it was to be THE LAW) to wear face coverings on public transport in shops and on public transport - if it is the law asking to follow guidance isn't good enough, it needs enforcement for 48 / 72 hours to ensure the public knows the government means business. Listing to the UK authorities sometimes sounds like Sgt. Wilson (Dads Army) ask the men to "fall in if you don't mind" rather then being instructed to do so.



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Old 28th Nov 2021, 22:41
  #17806 (permalink)  
 
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Pleased to hear you got vaccinated Mike. I really cannot understand why you wonder if there was any point. There is ample advice from those that know that it helps to reduce infection and protect against serious ill health and death. There have also been a couple of notorious examples in the US of anti-vax radio hosts, who caught Covid, got seriously ill, recanted on their position to recommend vaccination, and subsequently died (Farrel; Valentine; there have been others who may not have recanted, but Covid didn’t reward their pride or conviction). Glad to hear you are unlikely to suffer the same fate 👍

Be ambivalent, have your say, but maybe ditch some of the needless and trashy rhetoric and look more like you are debating in good faith 🙂
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Old 28th Nov 2021, 23:19
  #17807 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Peter H View Post
Thanks, I got that much from the flier.

If you could provide a clear layperson-level explanation of Fig2(i) p4 I would be really grateful.

.
I think that part i which you posted is a bar graph reflecting part h of the same figure.
Part h is a FACS plot monitoring cells under various conditions.

Intro video about FACS flow cytometry:

Basically, you take a bunch of cells, immune cells in this case, expose them to various conditions, and see what protein receptors pop up on their surface as a consequence. The receptors indicates what stage of “activation” they are in, and what level of alert they will be on and how aggressively they will attack a perceived threat.

Like walking up to a soldier at a guard station and saying, “Hey there buddy! I’m here to relieve you! Here’s a cup of coffee!” Versus, “I think something suspicious is going on!” To “They are attacking us now! ALL HANDS ON DECK!” Different signals yield different responses. The same thing happens with your immune system.

“Unactivated” corresponds to the first case. The carrier activates the immune cells, the Vitamin D variants alter the response.

IL-10 is an interleukin that greatly modifies the actions of T helper cells, a type of “white blood cell” that helps regulate the immune system.

[If you’ve ever seen a clear white fluid seeping out from a wound, it’s full of white blood cells, and is your immune system in action, as opposed to blood, which is full of red blood cells.]

If you want a more detailed analysis, I’ll have to sleep on it and do more digging.
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Old 29th Nov 2021, 01:06
  #17808 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by visibility3miles View Post
...Intro video about FACS flow cytometry:...

If you want a more detailed analysis, I’ll have to sleep on it and do more digging.
Many thanks, I think that's enough to give me some sort of context.
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Old 29th Nov 2021, 15:19
  #17809 (permalink)  
 
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The English government is under pressure to add a second PCR test after 8 days from the Scottish and Welsh Governments. That would mean 10 days of quarantine and would kill air travel again.
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Old 29th Nov 2021, 16:32
  #17810 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pain in the R's View Post
The English government is under pressure to add a second PCR test after 8 days from the Scottish and Welsh Governments. That would mean 10 days of quarantine and would kill air travel again.
There are plenty of other domestic measures they could (and should) be taking before taking draconian steps against importing infections of Omicron, the severity of and transmissibility of is quite unclear at present. If the Omicron strain does prove to result in more severe illness and is significant resistant to current vaccines I think it would be likely the English government will hit the panic button and do exactly what the Welsh and Scottish administrations are asking for - which could well be the death knell for the UK international travel industry as we know it.
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Old 29th Nov 2021, 17:06
  #17811 (permalink)  
 
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What happens when we run out of Greek alphabet letters?
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Old 29th Nov 2021, 17:11
  #17812 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by mike current View Post
What happens when we run out of Greek alphabet letters?
You ‘prime’ it, then double prime it. E.g. O’ then O”

😉
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Old 29th Nov 2021, 17:23
  #17813 (permalink)  
 
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Omiwhatever is a mouthful.

Can't we just call it China 4??
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Old 29th Nov 2021, 17:33
  #17814 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Ancient Observer View Post
Omiwhatever is a mouthful.

Can't we just call it China 4??

Er. I think there was a conscious decision not to use Xi…
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Old 29th Nov 2021, 19:10
  #17815 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by cameltruck View Post
Something RadGirl mentioned previously was that with this virus the most virulent strain dominates our system, so if the Omicron variant is far more contagious but far less lethal than the Delta variant then perhaps it should be left to run rife now that we have effective systems for dealing with this virus in place. Perhaps this is the natural lifecycle of these kinds of viruses and if left to their own devices will fizzle out all by themselves.
Given that the fundamental make-up of the virus is likely to subject it to constant mutation, as is the case with ordinary influenza, I agree with cameltruck, it might be sensible (within limits) to allow it to follow its natural course, but I fear that will not be possible in the present climate of fearful ignorance. Little currently is known about the Omicron strain, although early experience suggests its affects are relatively mild. But that does not deter Boris from seizing another opportunity to exercise a usurped power to maintain the control of a pathetically compliant and supine nation. Having gained this spurious authority, it is clear that the establishment is unwilling to give it up. With the introduction of the latest travel restrictions etc., it manifestly is clear that the government has learnt almost nothing from the past eighteen months and continues to kick the tin down the road, thus again demonstrating the probity of Einstein's other theory.

So now we have a repeat of history wherein Boris has yet another knee-jerk moment to again mandate the wearing of face masks. I do wish he would follow the science and not the scientists. This uninformed and exaggerated reaction, no doubt to be supported by what is becoming a cadre of "usual suspects", risks inviting public disorder. I have been given to understand by a respected source that the 53% effectiveness published in the medical journal and mentioned in an earlier post was derived from tests employing the type of masks used by theatre staff and the like, not the cheapo Chinese/Matt Hancock's mate in the bar supplied commodity. I should be astonished if the masks in common use could achieve anything like 50%. Indeed, I'm reminded of the eminent American epidemiologist who talking at the time of the 1918 burgeoning pandemic, said cotton face masks were "as effective at virus protection as chicken wire is at keeping out dust." But it has to be admitted that masks are very good for the display of personal virtue at times when sanctimony seems to be challenging wokeness for ascendancy in current mores.

Most have now been vaccinated, myself three times, and presumably as immune as we are likely to be. For everyone's sake, let us just get on with life without the constant propaganda and manipulation from an overweening state.

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Old 29th Nov 2021, 19:41
  #17816 (permalink)  
 
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I think you’re right GQ.

I’m resigned to the fact that, vaccinated or not, we're all going to get it eventually. It’s now going through the inoculated like a dose of salts right now - myself included - with varying severity. I’m virtually symptomless. My healthy marathon running nephew is currently floored by it and can’t get out of bed.
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Old 29th Nov 2021, 19:43
  #17817 (permalink)  
 
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GQ
You may be better listening to the scientists too. The fact is omicron is a nearly emergent variant that has only been known about for a very short time indeed and we know very little about it. We know something of its make up and we only have an early indication of how it behaves in the South African demographic and a relatively small sample size at that, The sheer number and location of mutations are worrying as they affect the areas associated with its ability to spread and its resistance to our current immunity. The interviews I have listened too can be boiled down to -" at this stage we just don't know but we are worried about the its potential".
Given the time it can take for Covid to go from initial infection to emergent symptoms to hospitalisation to recovery or demise, we are not yet through even one "cycle". We also have no idea how the variant will behave in a European demographic. In light of this, surely it is sensible to assume the worst and then wind back measures as and when we know more about it behaves. If you think back to the emergence of Delta in India, the government took a lot of stick for not reacting robustly or quickly enough so one cannot blame them for moving more swiftly to give scientists the time needed to assess what we are dealing with.

As to the effectiveness of masks, you may wish to go back to the paper referenced earlier in this thread and read it for yourself and then perhaps do you own reading, particularly consider that it was a study of multiple studies.
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Old 29th Nov 2021, 20:11
  #17818 (permalink)  
 
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An interesting piece by Prof Simon Wood (Prof of statistics) who is less than impressed with the methodology used to correlate and present the data in the referenced paper:

Do face masks halve the risk of Covid? A note on the evidence
By Professor Simon Wood

How much difference do masks make? You may remember a study that drew big headlines recently: ‘Mask wearing cuts Covid incidence by 53%, says global study’, stated the Guardian: ‘Results from more than 30 studies from around the world were analysed in detail.’ The New Scientist agreed, but said the evidence was based on data from 72 studies. A more cautious Times reported the same results as: ‘Masks more effective than distancing and handwashing.’ It claims evidence from ‘more than 30 studies from around the world’ which ‘were analysed in detail’. And Bloomberg said masks halved Covid risk – based on eight studies.

So what’s going on? The BMJ paper at the centre of these reports is a meta-analysis – a summary, an attempt to combine evidence from several studies to arrive at an objective assessment of the state of knowledge on a topic.

It identified 72 studies that might potentially have provided evidence on the effectiveness of masks, social distancing and handwashing. Of those, just six (not eight, 30 or 72) were sufficiently relevant – and of high enough quality – that they could provide useful information on mask efficacy. Four of the six were assessed to have a moderate risk of bias, and two to have a serious or critical risk.

Of the moderate four, one detected a reduced risk in subjects who always wore a mask when outdoors. The problem is that the subjects chose to do this, and there is plenty of decent evidence that outdoor transmission risk is tiny. What has most likely been detected is that being extremely cautious about Covid reduces your risk of catching it. Another looked at transmission only within the same household. If at least one household member was always wearing a mask at home before anyone in the house got sick, then there was a reduced risk of transmission. Again, the ultra-cautious are at lower risk. It is also irrelevant to the discussion of public mask wearing.

A third was based on an online survey, but I could not relate the results in the paper to those given in the first paper discussed. Fourthly we have an inconclusive study of 6,024 Danish citizens. It was the only one of the six relevant studies based on the sort of randomised trial that usually counts as evidence for a medical intervention.

My take away from all of this? Misunderstanding and unbalanced reporting of science leads to a great deal of trouble. Masks are the least of it.

Simon Wood is a professor of statistics at the University of Edinburgh. Read the full piece online.
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Old 29th Nov 2021, 20:56
  #17819 (permalink)  
 
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Simon Woods critique is based on the information contained in the paper which was quite open in its findings. The figure of 53% may be debatable but the hypothesis that masks are ineffective cannot be deduced from the findings.

A recent study conducted in Bangladesh by Stanford University has also come down in favour mask wearing too. A fairly large sample size this time!
https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-ne...-covid-19.html
One of the interesting side observations was that perhaps counter intuitively, mask wearing tended to increase social distancing.

There are also some of the early studies looking at droplet and aerosol dispersion mask wearing which indicate that masks reduce the spread of potentially infective droplets. I think, but can't swear, these were the initial experiments used to advocate mask wearing.
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Old 29th Nov 2021, 21:30
  #17820 (permalink)  
 
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According to Mrs Mac, who has been in discussions with certain retail organisations and govt, the mask wearing is to drive home the separation issue ie social distancing in crowded City Centres during the winter pre,and post Christmas shopping sales. Not sure about hospitality. Our company Christmas do was going to be in Aachen but we have cancelled and given each business centre some cash to do what they want. I will be interested to see what our UK office does as I will be around for once, and this is their first year together.

Cheers
Mr Mac
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