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Coronavirus: The Thread

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Coronavirus: The Thread

Old 26th Jul 2021, 11:59
  #16661 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
So essentially it's correct that the stats are based only on PCR tests. Of course with fewer lateral flow tests being taken by the "superspreaders" - teens and college students - as they're not being required to take lateral flow tests as part of their in school / college routine the number of positive tests being confirmed with PCR tests is likely to have fallen. However it should be pointed out that not all schools are finished for summer yet; hereabouts secondary kids are still at school today, which surprises me somewhat.
Plus those naughty little scamps no longer needing to get a positive test from OJ.
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Old 26th Jul 2021, 12:59
  #16662 (permalink)  
 
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I have been using the gov.uk site to keep records for my area since this debacle started. Initially I just recorded the headline case data but I noticed as time went the site evolved and historic data was being fed in so my spreadsheets did not match the government site. The historic number of cases in the data can change for any of the last 30 days as old cases are added and removed, the greatest variations being over the last 7 days. The headline data published today and seized upon by the press will change considerably as late data are added. Now, every day, I reload all the data since 1 Mar 20 as a CSV table and import it to my spreadsheets so my graphs and analyses are current.

The data that are missing from the government site is the number of active cases in each area. Other countries do this but HMG has fought shy for some reason.
If you want to scare yourself, go to https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deta...tive-map/cases and use the time slider to show the disease advancing and retreating.
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Old 26th Jul 2021, 13:01
  #16663 (permalink)  
 
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Makes one wonder how Civilization survived the Plague....without models, testing, or real scientific knowledge as we have today.

Fortunately for them they did not have Fauci to contend with back in those days.

I would like to see a graphic depiction of the various and often contradictory positions on the wearing of masks the CDC, NIH, and Fauci have had so far.

Then I would like to see the analysis of the value of masks by type, material, and design.

How does one include those factors into a Model or Algorithm?

Example....I often see folks wearing a cheap paper mask while driving in their automobile with no other occupants....of what value is that?

I have also seen folks in the wide open spaces, near no one, doing the same....then climb Into their car and continue wearing the mask.

We are even hearing of government instructing people to wear masks inside their own home.....and I bet there are people living alone that do that as well.

The argument is we would should look to the science....my question is which "science"?

What is a genuinely reliable and accurate source that can be trusted?

We see comparisons between Florida and other states like New York with the polar differences in government approaches to dealing with Covid and the "scientific" results being peddled by Fauci and others are directly challenged.

I sit here fully vaccinated and have been tested and found negative for Covid....and I am a resistor when it comes to wearing a Mask....and do so only in limited instances.

I take normal precautions as I do during the annual Flu Season....none beyond maintaining a social distance and staying home if I am sneezing or coughing which is very rare....except during Pine Pollen Season.

We have had some Covid deaths in my area and I knew two of them....both had underlying health conditions that a simple case of Pneumonia caused by the Annual Flu would have taken them and did but rather than being called that.....they were "Covid" victims.,

I had neighbors on each side of me think they had Covid....and when the families were tested they all came back negative.

Long post....just trying to summarize the thinking of the folks in my circle of friends and acquaintances.

We do not know who to trust for information, as our Media and Big Tech are now for the vaccine since the evil Orange Man is gone and Groping Joe is in.

So which is it....can we now trust the Vaccine that was developed while the other side was in charge or not?

If we cannot trust the vaccine how do we trust the other information that is being peddled.....and changes quicker than I do my underwear?

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Old 26th Jul 2021, 13:08
  #16664 (permalink)  
 
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Many and various questions. Were they rhetorical to express a point of view or do you really want answers? If the latter, it would be best to pose each question individually or in related groups.
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Old 26th Jul 2021, 13:17
  #16665 (permalink)  
 
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Respond as you wish....or not.

This is a somewhat free forum where folks discuss issues relating to the Covid Virus.

I welcome your comments as I do others here.

Perhaps mine might challenge some comments indirectly but then isn't that what debate is about?

Perhaps my veiled comparison of the Plague and Covid seems odd....but they both had a very signiificant effect upon Society and a tremendous death toll.

Yet....we survived that and certainly shall survive Covid no matter how dire Government is trying to make it sound.
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Old 26th Jul 2021, 13:56
  #16666 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by BWSBoy6 View Post
Plus those naughty little scamps no longer needing to get a positive test from OJ.
Being a curious chap I asked a GP whom I met last week about the orange or lemon juice wheeze. In their opinion it is rubbish, wouldn't show positive or negative, just invalid.
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Old 26th Jul 2021, 14:01
  #16667 (permalink)  
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Throughout this pandemic, this gentleman has been exemplary in explaining the complexities involved.

I would strongly suggest people read this offering..

England’s ‘pingdemic’ is a convenient distraction from the real problem | Stephen Reicher | The Guardian
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Old 26th Jul 2021, 14:10
  #16668 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SASless View Post
Respond as you wish....or not.

This is a somewhat free forum where folks discuss issues relating to the Covid Virus.

I welcome your comments as I do others here.

Perhaps mine might challenge some comments indirectly but then isn't that what debate is about?

Perhaps my veiled comparison of the Plague and Covid seems odd....but they both had a very signiificant effect upon Society and a tremendous death toll.

Yet....we survived that and certainly shall survive Covid no matter how dire Government is trying to make it sound.
I'll pick one. Your comparison of Covid with historic plagues (which one?) does not not really hold much water for reasons that ought to be obvious if you give it even a moment's thought unless needless deaths genuinely do not bother you. I would characterise it as rhetoric,

As to the rest of your previous post, You have seen combat so think of it as conducting a war:

1. You can see the war coming and take measures to avoid fighting it altogether,
Or
2. If the war is inevitable, you can prepare and arm for it so when it comes the fight is brief, casualties are few and victory is certain.
Or
3. You can ignore the gathering clouds and get caught unprepared so the war is protracted and casualties are high.

As to fighting the war itself, there are two extremes:

You can send your soldiers into battle well trained and well equipped with the population behind them.
Or
You can send your soldiers into battle poorly equipped, poorly trained, badly motivated and with little support or even active sabotage from the population.

As an outsider I would say you began at somewhere near 3. Though the signs were there, you did not see it coming and you were unprepared. Your soldiers were willing but poorly armed. Your population was divided into active supporters of the war effort and active saboteurs.
Now I would say your soldiers are well equipped, well trained and motivated but tired. Your population is pretty much as before. You have those that back your forces but you still have a substantial anti-war movement,

I am assuming from your remarks you are not in the frontline of the war. Would you say what you are doing or saying is aimed at helping or hindering the troops? Some of you actions are clearly the former and kudos for those, but I sense an underlying anti-war sentiment. Thing is, this is a war that cannot be lost, it is either victory, attrition or an uneasy truce, What do you favour and do your the views you hold take you that way?
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Old 26th Jul 2021, 15:55
  #16669 (permalink)  
 
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I'll pick one. Your comparison of Covid with historic plagues (which one?) does not not really hold much water for reasons that ought to be obvious if you give it even a moment's thought unless needless deaths genuinely do not bother you. I would characterise it as rhetoric,
I am concerned about needless deaths.....as in the New York Governor's decisions that resulted in a horrible toll of Lives in Care and Rest Homes in his State.

Or, perhaps in the increased mortality rate due to other illnesses and diseases that went undetected or untreated due to Government decisions.

As to the notion of treating Covid as being some kind of War....would you investigate the sources of the Pandemic and determine the circumstances behind its spread from the source?

If you found some National Government culpable in the unchecked spread to your own Nation....what actions would you take in response/retaliation for the deaths of so many of your own?
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Old 26th Jul 2021, 16:07
  #16670 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Planemike View Post
Thank you..!! Yes indeed should be "scientifically"....silly me, did not check!! I guess I call into question reliance on models in general when it is evident they are not necessarily that accurate..
Even trivial decisions you make every day are based on models. When you reach an intersection and you have to decide to go left or right, you need to construct a mental model of the intersection and the surrounding neighborhood in your head. Of course, that model could be wrong, for example an optical illusion could affect it. Or the lack of glasses. Or excessive ingestion of alcohol. But what is the alternative? Closing your eyes when walking the streets? Tossing a coin to decide if you should go left or right?
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Old 26th Jul 2021, 16:59
  #16671 (permalink)  
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https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-...-fall-12364709

The UK has reported 24,950 new cases of COVID-19 in the latest 24-hour period.

It means the number of COVID cases reported in the UK has fallen for the sixth consecutive day.

Fourteen deaths were reported during the same period.

Last Monday, 39,950 cases and 72 deaths were recorded.
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Old 26th Jul 2021, 17:06
  #16672 (permalink)  
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-to-be-dropped

Covid quarantine to be dropped for some Britons vaccinated abroad

Some Britons who have been double-vaccinated abroad will soon be able to travel to the UK more easily, as the government prepares to recognise jabs administered overseas.

Current restrictions mean only those who have been fully inoculated by the NHS are able to take advantage of avoiding quarantine if coming from countries graded amber under the traffic light system.

Hundreds of thousands of British citizens who are dual nationals or have been living or working abroad have still been forced to isolate for up to 10 days, but the rules are expected to be changed for some from August.

Those who have had both jabs in other countries but are registered with a GP in the UK will be able to apply to register these with the NHS – but the doses must be Moderna, Oxford/AstraZeneca, Pfizer/BioNTech or Janssen.

The vaccines minister, Nadhim Zahawi, signalled the move in a little-noticed response to an MP during a Commons debate last week.

He said: “By the end of this month, UK nationals who have been vaccinated overseas will be able to talk to their GP, go through what vaccine they have had, and have it registered with the NHS that they have been vaccinated.”

Zahawi said GPs would vet whether the jabs had been approved for use in the UK, with the more long-term goal of coordinating a commonly agreed vaccine standard with the World Health Organization and medicines’ regulators in the US and European Union.

He also hinted that all travellers coming from abroad who have been double-vaccinated with a jab authorised in the UK could have their doses recognised – not just those who are registered with a British GP – saying: “We want to offer the same reciprocity as the 33 countries that recognise our [NHS] app, and that will also happen very soon.”

Ministers are expected to announce the change later this week, as part of a review of the wider rules governing international travel due to be held before 31 July…..
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Old 26th Jul 2021, 17:15
  #16673 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SASless View Post
I am concerned about needless deaths.....as in the New York Governor's decisions that resulted in a horrible toll of Lives in Care and Rest Homes in his State.

Or, perhaps in the increased mortality rate due to other illnesses and diseases that went undetected or untreated due to Government decisions.

As to the notion of treating Covid as being some kind of War....would you investigate the sources of the Pandemic and determine the circumstances behind its spread from the source?

If you found some National Government culpable in the unchecked spread to your own Nation....what actions would you take in response/retaliation for the deaths of so many of your own?
It would be nice had you responded to the whole post rather than leaping on one phrase which I feel you have deliberately misunderstood, The remark about needless deaths was a reference to our ability to prevent deaths, if we choose, rather than letting the disease run its course, which the only real option to countries subject to plagues in the distant past. That is the essential difference between than and now.

The war is on Covid itself. I am not so naïve to make the the link you want as well I think you realise, neither you nor anyone else knows the precise origin of the disease, despite many conspiracy trying to place the blame at various doorsteps. I do not buy into the deliberate act hypothesis but then I have done the right courses and know what a blunt weapon a biological agent is.

In the circumstances of a declared pandemic, if a disease is spreading unchecked within the borders of a country, then I would hold the government of that country responsible for that spread. It is the duty of any government to protect its citizens. A pandemic is a known threat and a pandemic arising from a respiratory disease is the most likely. If I was aware of the disease while it was still in China (as far as we know) and I did not have access to any intelligence sources more sophisticated than a newspaper, then national governments should have been well aware. Neither of our governments were prepared for a pandemic. Your president wasted time denying the threat when it was obvious to US public health specialists Remember "It will be over by April"?. The issue of public heath has then politicised when the whole nation should have been working as one to limit the spread of the disease.

So to answer your question "If you found some National Government culpable in the unchecked spread to your own Nation....what actions would you take in response/retaliation for the deaths of so many of your own" For a start, I would vote them out of office at the first opportunity, I would follow that with a public enquiry to identify those who had failed in their duty followed by appropriate prosecutions.

Returning to the war analogy. If a government knows that an invasion is possible and does nothing to prepare for it and then rather than defend against it makes a few token gestures while denying it is actually happening what do you think should happen?
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Old 26th Jul 2021, 19:05
  #16674 (permalink)  
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I think the statistics show you can’t attribute the drop in number of cases to school LFT tests. Today’s figures are going to steepen those curves even further…

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Old 26th Jul 2021, 22:00
  #16675 (permalink)  
 
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There is a story running the Telegraph flagging up that half the Covid cases in hospital are only detected after admission when they subjected to routine screening. They conclude the pressure on the NHS from Covid is being overstated.
https://apple.news/Az9LWG799TDe5RZmENqFIsw
There are other ways of looking at it of course. You now have a patient with Covid and something else so you may still have to treat 2 or more conditions, with Covid constraining the treatment.
It also means the number of cases of Covid in the community are being underestimated.

While the govt puts the number of cases at 24950, the ZOE Covid-19 study estimates the figure to be 62888.
https://covid.joinzoe.com/
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Old 26th Jul 2021, 22:31
  #16676 (permalink)  
 
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Or they are catching covid in hospital.
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Old 27th Jul 2021, 05:49
  #16677 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Douglas Bahada View Post
Or they are catching covid in hospital.
Given that people are tested on admission - for obvious reasons - and that COVID takes at least a couple of days to incubate this can’t be the explanation.
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Old 27th Jul 2021, 05:50
  #16678 (permalink)  
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https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-...ne-months.html

Vaccine antibody levels start to wane at around 2–3 months

Total antibody levels appear to start declining from as early as six weeks after complete vaccination and can reduce by more than 50% over 10 weeks, according to new data from UCL's Virus Watch study.These findings were consistent across all groups of people regardless of age, chronic illnesses or sex.

The findings, published as a research letter in The Lancet, include data from over 600 people and show antibody levels are substantially higher following two doses of the Pfizer vaccine than after two doses of the AZ vaccine. They are also much higher in those with prior SARS-CoV-2 infection.

The authors highlight that although the clinical implications of waning antibody levels are not yet clear, some decline was expected and current research shows that vaccines remain effective against severe disease.….

The authors note that limitations of the data include a small sample size for some groups and the fact that each individual only contributed one sample, so they cannot yet confirm how quickly antibody levels drop for each individual, or whether these would continue to drop or reach a stable level over the next few months.

They also note different people will have different levels of immunity depending on the virus neutralizing ability of their antibodies as well as their T-cell responses; and even when measurable antibody levels are low there is likely to be continuing immune memory that could offer long-term protection.

Further research will be important to establish if there is an antibody level threshold needed for protection against severe disease. The authors will continue to collect and analyze data from a larger number of participants, following antibody levels in individuals over a longer period of time……..
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Old 27th Jul 2021, 08:24
  #16679 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-to-be-dropped

Covid quarantine to be dropped for some Britons vaccinated abroad

Some Britons who have been double-vaccinated abroad will soon be able to travel to the UK more easily, as the government prepares to recognise jabs administered overseas.

Current restrictions mean only those who have been fully inoculated by the NHS are able to take advantage of avoiding quarantine if coming from countries graded amber under the traffic light system.

Hundreds of thousands of British citizens who are dual nationals or have been living or working abroad have still been forced to isolate for up to 10 days, but the rules are expected to be changed for some from August.
It’s welcome news but the significant, operative word in all this is “some”….to benefit from this next iteration of the rules you have to have been vaccinated with a suitable vaccine outside the UK, then on arrival in the Uk (and presumably after isolation) you have to trot off to a GP, perhaps register with the same, and then get your status onto the NHS’s books. It appears and only then will you stand a chance of having “covid quarantine …dropped”, presumably for subsequent arrivals.

This improvement will probably be of benefit to very few people - those arriving to take up residence in the Uk, and/ or, whisper this quietly, those living overseas who have somehow, and in some cases mysteriously, retained their right to NHS healthcare and even an NHS GP at the same time as also having the right to be vaccinated somewhere overseas.

As it stand the proposals don’t help the many many thousands of British citizens actually living overseas who need/what to travel back to the UK for short visits.


He also hinted that all travellers coming from abroad who have been double-vaccinated with a jab authorised in the UK could have their doses recognised – not just those who are registered with a British GP

..
Gosh, is that even possible? Would it really be possible for the UK to have in place the sort of the protocol that is already in place in many countries, protocols that many Brits have already benefitted from on their travels abroad this summer…..

This is not rocket science but somehow somebody somewhere want’s to make it look like it is…it has to be done properly but it’s mostly a paperwork exercise.

Last edited by wiggy; 27th Jul 2021 at 08:39.
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Old 27th Jul 2021, 08:32
  #16680 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-...ne-months.html

Vaccine antibody levels start to wane at around 2–3 months

Total antibody levels appear to start declining from as early as six weeks after complete vaccination and can reduce by more than 50% over 10 weeks, according to new data from UCL's Virus Watch study.These findings were consistent across all groups of people regardless of age, chronic illnesses or sex.

The findings, published as a research letter in The Lancet, include data from over 600 people and show antibody levels are substantially higher following two doses of the Pfizer vaccine than after two doses of the AZ vaccine. They are also much higher in those with prior SARS-CoV-2 infection.

The authors highlight that although the clinical implications of waning antibody levels are not yet clear, some decline was expected and current research shows that vaccines remain effective against severe disease.….

The authors note that limitations of the data include a small sample size for some groups and the fact that each individual only contributed one sample, so they cannot yet confirm how quickly antibody levels drop for each individual, or whether these would continue to drop or reach a stable level over the next few months.

They also note different people will have different levels of immunity depending on the virus neutralizing ability of their antibodies as well as their T-cell responses; and even when measurable antibody levels are low there is likely to be continuing immune memory that could offer long-term protection.

Further research will be important to establish if there is an antibody level threshold needed for protection against severe disease. The authors will continue to collect and analyze data from a larger number of participants, following antibody levels in individuals over a longer period of time……..
​​​​​​​
I am sure I have read something similar before during the vaccine trials. Antibody levels are only part of the story. T cells contribute to long term immunity.

T Cells, the unsung warriors

Last edited by Ninthace; 27th Jul 2021 at 08:57.
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