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Coronavirus: The Thread

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Coronavirus: The Thread

Old 22nd Jul 2021, 22:04
  #16581 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2000
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I'm beginning to think that there might be something odd going on in the Government's urging us to vaccinate ... that is, if I was stupid enough to buy or even read the Sun, (or, even worse, believe anything they publish) There will, however, be others ...




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Old 22nd Jul 2021, 23:26
  #16582 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Ninthace View Post
The presence of antibodies does not imply immunity. It reduces, but does not eliminate the risk of infection and its consequences. Antibodies also decrease with time. It is thought those associated with vaccination are more effective than those arising from infection.
I would be very interested if you have a reference for the underlined statement. (Not doubting you, just interested.)

PS Background
The last More or Less programme contained the assertion that vaccination only reduced the chances of catching a transmissible covid infection by 50-60%. [The reduction in the chance of getting a serious covid infection is of course >>90%.]
More or Less, The Freedom Day Gamble https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000y49w ... start at about 10m10s

If the entire population had a 60% reduction in the chance of catching a transmissible infection, and Delta has a N0 of about 2.5*1.6, wouldn't N0 for this population be about 2.5*1.6*0.4 = 1.6? So exponential growth with back-to-normal social distancing.
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Old 23rd Jul 2021, 00:23
  #16583 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Peter H View Post
I would be very interested if you have a reference for the underlined statement. (Not doubting you, just interested.)

PS Background
The last More or Less programme contained the assertion that vaccination only reduced the chances of catching a transmissible covid infection by 50-60%. [The reduction in the chance of getting a serious covid infection is of course >>90%.]
More or Less, The Freedom Day Gamble https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000y49w ... start at about 10m10s

If the entire population had a 60% reduction in the chance of catching a transmissible infection, and Delta has a N0 of about 2.5*1.6, wouldn't N0 for this population be about 2.5*1.6*0.4 = 1.6? So exponential growth with back-to-normal social distancing.
Some sources

https://www.nih.gov/how-immunity-gen...fers-infection

https://directorsblog.nih.gov/2021/0...-an-infection/

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/med...mit/ar-AAKDrLP

The general advice to this effect is contained in many health information websites. A search engine will turn them up.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/faq.html

https://health.clevelandclinic.org/when-should-you-get-vaccinated-if-youve-had-covid-19/

https://www.osfhealthcare.org/blog/vaccination-after-having-covid-19/

Last edited by Ninthace; 23rd Jul 2021 at 00:55.
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Old 23rd Jul 2021, 09:20
  #16584 (permalink)  
 
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Decisions have consequences.

From CNN
Just get the stupid shot!

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Old 23rd Jul 2021, 09:21
  #16585 (permalink)  
 
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Here is a Reuters telegram about a study on how good the vaccines are at preventing symptomatic disease from the Delta variant, published in the New England Journal of Medicine:

https://www.reuters.com/business/hea...ds-2021-07-21/

Pfizer-BioNTech: 88%
Oxford-AstraZeneca: 67%
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Old 23rd Jul 2021, 13:54
  #16586 (permalink)  
 
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I have to admit that I don't get the discussion going on in the UK about so called "corona passports".

Where I live, we have an app that's green if you've had covid as recently as some months ago, are vaccinated and when, or have had a negative test in the past 4 * 24 hours. You use this for accessing indoor serving, museums and the like.

If one doesn't want to get vaccinated, one takes a test on Thursdays and can then party all weekend.

The app conforms to the EU standard and has a travel mode, not showing any colours, but lists test results, when vaccinated, when infected, etc.

You see, whether I am likely to have, potentially have, or even have covid at the moment IS NOT A PRIVATE MATTER, and I am happy to have to present evidence of this in order to protect people around me.

Am likewise happy to get my hat and coat having said this...
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Old 23rd Jul 2021, 14:07
  #16587 (permalink)  
 
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Thank you Ninthace for publishing those articles.

The paragraph that really grabbed my attention was:

Rather than using evolutionary theory to attempt to predict how SARS-CoV-2 is likely to shift behaviour, many researchers have largely focused on genetic change alone. It seems that by just tracking changes in molecular make-up, geneticists are making a sacrifice of their own – which we could call a genotypic gambit.
The sacrifice, here, is jettisoning this reasoning when talking about the risk of variants. That reasoning suggests more variants will arise that improve the virus’s transmissibility among humans. We can’t predict the precise genetic changes, at least not yet, but we should assume they will arise, and plan accordingly.
It sounds like it's normal evolutionary process for a virus like this to constantly mutate to become more transmissible, but in that mutation process it's structure needs to change, and with that constant structural change over time the virus's potency should, as history has shown with other similar viruses, eventually become weaker and fizzle out. When that happens, and whether it has a period of mutation with more severe potency before this happens, is still very much unknown.

This in my mind tells me that the current vaccines we have developed are only allowing us to buy more time and are not a cure. We will need to keep developing new vaccines for new variants until either the science of understanding of this virus improves or the virus eventually fizzles out which could be years away.
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Old 23rd Jul 2021, 15:16
  #16588 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by cattletruck View Post
Thank you Ninthace for publishing those articles.

The paragraph that really grabbed my attention was:



It sounds like it's normal evolutionary process for a virus like this to constantly mutate to become more transmissible, but in that mutation process it's structure needs to change, and with that constant structural change over time the virus's potency should, as history has shown with other similar viruses, eventually become weaker and fizzle out. When that happens, and whether it has a period of mutation with more severe potency before this happens, is still very much unknown.

This in my mind tells me that the current vaccines we have developed are only allowing us to buy more time and are not a cure. We will need to keep developing new vaccines for new variants until either the science of understanding of this virus improves or the virus eventually fizzles out which could be years away.
I would have to take advice on that but I can tell you what I think I know. Viruses do not mutate with any end in view, Those mutations which benefit the virus' survival will be passed on. So yes, an increase in transmissibility is a good thing from a virus point of view so any mutation that allows it the dodge vaccines would be a "better" thing. I, too, have read that over time coronaviruses become less virulent and this again benefits the virus because the host is less likely to take countermeasures. But it does not have to be that way, and even of it is, there may be some big old potholes on the road. Flu viruses mutate frequently and some are much nastier than others, Spanish Flu was far from being the first outbreak of flu. Remember the govt contingency plan, such as it was, was against a deadly flu strain. Covid 19 could equally do the same, imagine a highly transmissible variant that took a long time to kill. The virus could pass from host to host and but the ultimate fate of those hosts is off less importance to the virus as it has already been transmitted, Yes the host would react in time but it would be at a high price in lives and in the interim, there would be no shortage of hosts.

As to vaccine strategies, at present we are developing vaccines to create antibodies to attack the spike proteins the viruses use to get into the cell to deliver their payload, These proteins could mutate to the point where the antibodies fail to recognise them. Working out where they are going and getting there ahead of them is a good idea. There is another. There are parts of viruses that do not mutate much as they are what makes it what it is. Imagine a car, it can be any colour or shape but of if it does not have 4 wheels and an engine, it can't go. Similarly with viruses, if you can identify the common elements and hit those, you could be on to a winner. This approach has been postulated for a universal flu vaccine.
Universal Influenza Vaccine Research

Sorry, if I was brighter and more informed, I could express it better but I hope this goes some way to an answer.
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Old 23rd Jul 2021, 19:06
  #16589 (permalink)  
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As it says, too soon to tell. Downside is that the figures reflect the situation before the lifting of restrictions on the 19th which have to filter through - upside is that schools have now broken up so they won’t be a factor for transmission.

Fingers crossed for the next week. Hopefully a continuing downward trend or a double hump before the trend continues downwards…..

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ses-is-a-trend

Scientists cautious over whether fall in UK Covid cases is a trend

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57942217

Last edited by ORAC; 23rd Jul 2021 at 19:41.
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Old 23rd Jul 2021, 19:35
  #16590 (permalink)  
 
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I have been monitoring a similar trend locally. I use a crude algorithm to estimate to calculate the number of active cases in my local authority area, They peaked between 16-19 July. I am cautious as to what the reason might be. It could just be the hot spell, people not coming forward for testing. or a people taking their own protection measure to mitigate the effects of "Freedom Day". It is certainly not due to the limits of the testing system this time. Something odd is definitely going on. Time will tell.
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Old 23rd Jul 2021, 19:44
  #16591 (permalink)  
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And now people can go freely to the pubs again….

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/156719...-worker-brawl/

Spider-Man arrested…

https://www.theguardian.com/society/...k-experts-fear


Youth violence likely to explode over summer, UK experts fear
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Old 23rd Jul 2021, 19:51
  #16592 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
And now people can go freely to the pubs again….

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/156719...-worker-brawl/

Spider-Man arrested…

https://www.theguardian.com/society/...k-experts-fear


Youth violence likely to explode over summer, UK experts fear
I think covid is being used as an excuse. Summer riots are not exactly a new thing - Brighton '64?
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Old 23rd Jul 2021, 20:57
  #16593 (permalink)  
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https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a...ntry-svtddcxq6

Australia facing ‘national emergency’ as Sydney’s Delta oubreak threatens to sweep country

Australia is in the grip of a “national emergency” with the coronavirus threatening to sweep across the country, its authorities warned today as Sydney recorded its biggest daily leap in cases this year.

Gladys Berejiklian, the premier of New South Wales, Australian’s most populous state, warned that its lockdown would continue for months as infections increase. “There is no doubt that the numbers are not going in the direction we were hoping they would at this stage,” she told reporters in Sydney.

Warning that the city of five million might remain in lockdown until October, she said her declaration of a national emergency aimed to inject urgency into Australia’s sluggish vaccine rollout, which has fully vaccinated less than 16 per cent of adults.

Berejiklian also called for other states give their vaccines to Sydney so that more of the tens of thousands at risk in the city’s coronavirus hotspots could be rapidly protected.

“There is no doubt, we believe very strongly that we need to refocus the national strategy on vaccine rollout, given the situation New South Wales is in, we need to administer at least the first dose of any vaccine into arms as much as possible,” she said.……

Jacinda Ardern, New Zealand’s prime minister, responded today to Australia’s growing outbreak by suspending the “travel bubble” with Australia that allows movement between the two countries without quarantine for at least eight weeks.….
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Old 23rd Jul 2021, 21:11
  #16594 (permalink)  
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https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...an-sparks-fury

No vax, no vote? Macron’s vaccine passport plan sparks fury
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Old 23rd Jul 2021, 21:49
  #16595 (permalink)  
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The frustrating thing is the report does not comment on the condition of those vaccinated. Other reports have stated that over 40% of those registered as suffering from Covid when currently admitted to hospital are asymptomatic and admitted for other conditions and, on average, discharged within 48 hours.

How may of those are those vaccinated?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...infection-risk

PHE upgrade Delta variant’s risk level due to reinfection risk

Public Health England has upgraded its risk assessment of the Delta variant after national testing data revealed it is more likely to cause reinfections than the Alpha variant, which was first identified in Kent.

The health agency’s analysis found the risk of reinfection with Delta may be 46% greater than with the Alpha variant, with the highest risk seen six months after a first infection – when second cases caused by Delta were 2.37 times more common than with Alpha.

The finding is bolstered by new data from Public Health England’s (PHE) Siren study, which monitors more than 40,000 NHS staff for Covid infections. The latest figures show that positive tests rose steadily from May to July when 1.1% had the virus. Nearly a third of the healthcare workers had Covid before enrolling on the study and more than 95% have been vaccinated.

It is unclear why Delta may be causing more reinfections, but one possibility is that immunity from infections early on in the pandemic may be waning a little and so reducing the body’s defences against the variant which became dominant in the UK this year. PHE said that further work is now being undertaken to examine the risk of reinfection.

In light of the findings, PHE upgraded its risk assessment on “immunity after natural infection” from amber to red for the Delta variant. Reinfections remain a rarity though, accounting for only 1.2% of the 83,197 cases analysed.

The move came as new figures showed how many people in hospital with the Delta variant have had one or both doses of a Covid vaccine. Between 21 June and 19 July, 1,788 people were admitted to hospital after testing positive for Delta. Of these, 54% were unvaccinated while 30% had received both shots. In total, 3,692 people have so far been admitted to hospital with the Delta variant, of whom 2,152 (58%) were unvaccinated and 843 (23%) were fully vaccinated…..

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Old 23rd Jul 2021, 22:04
  #16596 (permalink)  
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Old 23rd Jul 2021, 22:37
  #16597 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...an-sparks-fury

No vax, no vote? Macron’s vaccine passport plan sparks fury
ORAC you usually C&P large tracts of text from articles such as this when it suits you… and yet for some reason this time you didn’t …..could the reason for that possibly be because quite early on the article correctly points out that:

the government’s vaccination passport law currently being rushed through the National Assembly does not specifically mandate proof of vaccination to vote.”

Funnily enough neither does is make any suggestion that it will be mandatory that you have to be right handed to vote, have green hair to vote, have three heads to vote, AFAIK it’s also equally true that none of the coronavirus related legislation in the UK actual or proposed specifically mandates proof of vaccination to vote either…

Maybe it’s time the Spectator upped it’s game, and actually went back to producing some properly researched articles rather than thinly disguised opinion pieces such as this one which seems to be designed to do nothing more than appeal to the Francophobes amongst it’s readership.

Last edited by wiggy; 23rd Jul 2021 at 22:50.
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Old 23rd Jul 2021, 22:49
  #16598 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...an-sparks-fury

No vax, no vote? Macron’s vaccine passport plan sparks fury
If you want a less hysterical version try
https://www.connexionfrance.com/Fren...-passed-by-MPs
-yes they are about the same events
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Old 23rd Jul 2021, 22:58
  #16599 (permalink)  
 
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Thanks for spotting that Ninthace, as you point out the reality is somewhat different from the way it is being spun in some quarters..as for the demos…it’s summer…the Gilly Joans need dusting off and given an outing…….

Anyhow I’ve just read something interesting and in addition to my other skills I can also do C&P….

The most powerful clique in the UK at the moment are a group that are linked to the Spectator magazine. They congregate around the Spectator, and the Telegraph, and live in a dense web of networks, friendships, affairs and marriages. Boris Johnson is their most prominent member but most of the Tory leadership of the last decade - Cameron, Osborne, Gove - were part of this group (Theresa May was an exception). So too was Dominic Cummings, whose wife worked for the magazine.


the Spectator is good at spectating, offering witty, ironic and often well-written commentary on the world, traditionally with the tone of a rather embittered ageing man, a bit drunk in an upmarket London bar, lamenting the ways of the world.

https://www.geoffmulgan.com/post/spe...-ruling-clique

Warning: do not scroll to the foot of the page if you are averse to images of the UK’s glorious leader when he was in his prime.
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Old 23rd Jul 2021, 23:27
  #16600 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by wiggy View Post

https://www.geoffmulgan.com/post/spe...-ruling-clique

Warning: do not scroll to the foot of the page if you are averse to images of the UK’s glorious leader when he was in his prime.
Aaaargh. my eyes, my eyes.!

C&P posts have their place, e.g. dragging relevant stuff out from behind paywalls but IMHO, just because you can, does not mean you always should. I am not sure if those of us who C&P or hyperlink (guilty m’lud) always review the content critically for credibility in our haste to get it out there. My personal opinion is selective C&P of an article to include the bits that support the poster’s agenda while omitting the “awkward” bits is a no-no, but each to their own.
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