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Coronavirus: The Thread

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Coronavirus: The Thread

Old 16th Jul 2021, 09:26
  #16361 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Mr Optimistic View Post
'A 4 week lockdown now or a 3-4 month long one in late august or September. One of the two is going to happen, and I know which one I would like to have'

Well yes, we all would, everything being equal, but there are other costs which need to bear on framing the question. Think a tapered relaxation would have done the job. Who coined the 'freedom day' infantile expression ?
From about 4 weeks ago anything other than a tightening of restrictions was always going to lead to the need for a new lockdown. Instant or tapered relaxation just changes when the long lockdown would start.

It is everywhere now. In the first lockdown we never knew anyone who tested positive. In the second we knew 2. Currently my wife has 9 out of her 21 staff (nhs workers) confirmed cases. My work has had a bad week. 6 confirmed cases out of 15 staff.
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Old 16th Jul 2021, 09:29
  #16362 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by highflyer40 View Post
Maybe the app isnít sensitive enough,.
I see that the Bluetooth used by the App travels through walls - so if your neighbour is positive you get pinged - even if you haven't seen them in weeks.
I can envisage other like circumstances.
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Old 16th Jul 2021, 09:30
  #16363 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Planemike View Post
The main problem is, it isn't going to be "freedom day" (more's the pity!!)...
The last thing we need now or EVER is any form of "lockdown".... What has happened to the vaccine that is protecting us??
Just get on with life and live it as best was you can.....
Just a question .... How do you become "pinged"?? Never happened to me, don't think my 'phone knows what "ping" is !!!
Donít worry about getting pinged. I think we all know here that you would never download the NHS app.

If someone gives your details to contact tracing you may get a text message telling you to isolate.

You legally donít need to follow the appís guidance. You legally DO need to adhere to the text if received telling you to isolate.
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Old 16th Jul 2021, 09:34
  #16364 (permalink)  
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Highflyer40,

At that rate it will burn itself out in weeks - Scotland is reportedly already past the peak.

Accepting they already had the highest number of cases in the UK, and Europe, but the worst places in England aren’t far behind.

https://www.scotsman.com/health/coro...yousaf-3303863
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Old 16th Jul 2021, 09:36
  #16365 (permalink)  
 
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HF...... Thank you for that info, it is helpful. I am being serious not sarcastic.... I am pretty sure my 'phone would not be able to download an app. I live on my own so am isolated anyway... I subjected myself to the vaccine and feel I have a good immune system... Nothing I can do about my age...!! Were I to feel unwell, I might investigate further...

Last edited by Planemike; 16th Jul 2021 at 09:48.
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Old 16th Jul 2021, 09:56
  #16366 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Mr Optimistic View Post
'A 4 week lockdown now or a 3-4 month long one in late august or September. One of the two is going to happen, and I know which one I would like to have'
There will be no lockdown in late August or September.


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Old 16th Jul 2021, 10:02
  #16367 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by mike current View Post
There will be no lockdown in late August or September.
You may be right. It might be late July or early August.
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Old 16th Jul 2021, 10:07
  #16368 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by radar101 View Post
I see that the Bluetooth used by the App travels through walls - so if your neighbour is positive you get pinged - even if you haven't seen them in weeks.
Unlikely, but possible. Move the bed away from the party wall.
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Old 16th Jul 2021, 10:10
  #16369 (permalink)  
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UK

Ministers are considering putting France on the red travel due to the spread of the Beta variant, first found in South Africa, according to reports.

There are concerns the South African variant is more resistant to vaccines than other strains. France has much higher levels of the variant than other countries in Europe.

”They are worried about the South African variant because they think it escapes the vaccine, although they don’t have evidence of that yet,” a government source said. “It appears to be why a lot of countries in Africa and the Middle East are on the red list despite low prevalence rates.”

If the country is added to the red list it means travellers returning to the UK will be required to complete hotel quarantine for 10 days.

From Monday, passengers who are fully vaccinated will not have to self isolate after returning from an amber list country.

Last edited by ORAC; 16th Jul 2021 at 11:00.
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Old 16th Jul 2021, 10:40
  #16370 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Planemike View Post
The main problem is, it isn't going to be "freedom day" (more's the pity!!)...
The last thing we need now or EVER is any form of "lockdown".... What has happened to the vaccine that is protecting us??
Just get on with life and live it as best was you can.....
Just a question .... How do you become "pinged"?? Never happened to me, don't think my 'phone knows what "ping" is !!!
I don't think clockwork phones do pings - they chime.
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Old 16th Jul 2021, 10:42
  #16371 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by radar101 View Post
I see that the Bluetooth used by the App travels through walls - so if your neighbour is positive you get pinged - even if you haven't seen them in weeks.
I can envisage other like circumstances.
Chase down the story. Anecdotal and possibly single instance being picked up and repeated.
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Old 16th Jul 2021, 10:45
  #16372 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by mike current View Post
There will be no lockdown in late August or September.
That's an unequivocal statement if ever there was one. .

And your foundations are, and basis for making it please ?
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Old 16th Jul 2021, 10:51
  #16373 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Highflyer40,

At that rate it will burn itself out in weeks - Scotland is reportedly already past the peak.

Accepting they already had the highest number of cases in the UK, and Europe, but the worst places in England arenít far behind.

https://www.scotsman.com/health/coro...yousaf-3303863
After it peaks, in the absence of any countermeasures there is likely to be a sizeable tail. Not so much burning out as smouldering to an eventual halt. As far as the numbers affected concerned, it is the integral of the curve that matters rather than the height of the peak.
Also the longer it drags on, the greater the likelihood of a new variant emerging.
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Old 16th Jul 2021, 11:11
  #16374 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Ninthace View Post
I don't think clockwork phones do pings - they chime.
Nin...... That made me smile.....!! Thank you !! PM
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Old 16th Jul 2021, 11:15
  #16375 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Ninthace View Post
After it peaks, in the absence of any countermeasures there is likely to be a sizeable tail. Not so much burning out as smouldering to an eventual halt. As far as the numbers affected concerned, it is the integral of the curve that matters rather than the height of the peak.
Also the longer it drags on, the greater the likelihood of a new variant emerging.
That is the problem, and one that has been disregarded by the government in Westminster, it appears almost inevitable that new new variant will come out of the latest UK wave, and then, almost without doubt we'll be be in some kind of lockdown by the early Autumn. Yesterdays massive leap in new cases reported is almost certainly in no small part due to the England football match the previous Wednesday and the manic scenes in pubs and homes that it spawned. Expect another quantum leap in number around next Tuesday or Wednesday following the final. Other events such as Wimbledon may also have an effect, although less so than football because of the nature in which it is watched and the behaviour of fans away from the match itself.

Johnson will allow this current wave to run, probably 2 weeks or so longer than he ought to before having to eat humble pie and do a screaming U-turn, his own libertarian back benchers simply won't allow him to go earlier as they are really agin any lockdowns and the public will simply have to drive the demand until they come to their senses. I see a very bleak few months ahead, even Chris Whitty is getting nervous over hospital admissions going forward, probably with very firm grounds.

It seems as though the date on my calendar might be wrong, since while enjoying breakfast at my local Morrisons this morning two young women wandered in with kids (that should have been in school, or self isolating) neither wearing masks - that in a period of about 15 minutes, and the cafe wasn't exactly busy. Funnily enough walking round the shop itself there must have been pretty well 100% compliance, shame the cook in the cafť kitchen preparing the food was wearing her face mask as a chin warmer - rather defeats the object really. The company management needs to get on top of that kind of thing.
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Old 16th Jul 2021, 11:45
  #16376 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post

Johnson will allow this current wave to run, probably 2 weeks or so longer than he ought to before having to eat humble pie and do a screaming U-turn, his own libertarian back benchers simply won't allow him to go earlier as they are really agin any lockdowns and the public will simply have to drive the demand until they come to their senses. I see a very bleak few months ahead, even Chris Whitty is getting nervous over hospital admissions going forward, probably with very firm grounds.

I.
The indifference displayed by Jenrick, along with anything involving IT and the Gov't is staggering, but, synonymous with the actions throughout the pandemic.

This article supports your suggestion above.

Summer chaos predicted as 1.6m in England told to isolate in a week | Coronavirus | The Guardian
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Old 16th Jul 2021, 11:47
  #16377 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
At that rate it will burn itself out in weeks
Well, this wave & variant at least. We've only reached Delta in the Greek alphabet, and it'll probably be like naming hurricanes when they run out of letters.

My daughter has just tested positive along with a raft of her mates, after a couple of nights out last weekend. Joy.


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Old 16th Jul 2021, 11:52
  #16378 (permalink)  
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it appears almost inevitable that new new variant will come out of the latest UK wave
There are hundreds of new variants arising and being tracked. However very few of them have significantly different characteristics and even less becomes variants of interest let alone variants of concern.

Variants of concern do arise, the majority, as probability would expect, arising overseas. As experience has shown it is almost impossible to stop these spreading - even full quarantines such as in Australia have not prevented the entry of the Delta variant.

As the main means of prevention of the spread of a new variant of concern is genomic tracing and, if necessary, modification of an existing vaccine, which it is claimed can now be done and placed in mass production in weeks.

Accepting that global vaccination is years away, and that Covid is and will remain endemic, the question remains how long can the economy endure further lockdowns and if restrictions are not lifted now, during the summer when most people are least at risk and outdoors and the NHS can best cope, then when?

As shown by experience short sharp lockdowns don’t stop waves - they just delay them.
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Old 16th Jul 2021, 11:53
  #16379 (permalink)  
 
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Earlier this year I was stomped on by several of my mates when I said that way too much stall was being set on the vaccination programme being our way out of this mess, given that there were (and still are) way too many variables and unknowns. People just can't get it into their heads what 'learning to live with the virus' really means, in particular that we simply won't be able to go back to the way things were.
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Old 16th Jul 2021, 11:56
  #16380 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
That is the problem, and one that has been disregarded by the government in Westminster, it appears almost inevitable that new new variant will come out of the latest UK wave, and then, almost without doubt we'll be be in some kind of lockdown by the early Autumn. Yesterdays massive leap in new cases reported is almost certainly in no small part due to the England football match the previous Wednesday and the manic scenes in pubs and homes that it spawned. Expect another quantum leap in number around next Tuesday or Wednesday following the final. Other events such as Wimbledon may also have an effect, although less so than football because of the nature in which it is watched and the behaviour of fans away from the match itself.

Johnson will allow this current wave to run, probably 2 weeks or so longer than he ought to before having to eat humble pie and do a screaming U-turn, his own libertarian back benchers simply won't allow him to go earlier as they are really agin any lockdowns and the public will simply have to drive the demand until they come to their senses. I see a very bleak few months ahead, even Chris Whitty is getting nervous over hospital admissions going forward, probably with very firm grounds.

It seems as though the date on my calendar might be wrong, since while enjoying breakfast at my local Morrisons this morning two young women wandered in with kids (that should have been in school, or self isolating) neither wearing masks - that in a period of about 15 minutes, and the cafe wasn't exactly busy. Funnily enough walking round the shop itself there must have been pretty well 100% compliance, shame the cook in the cafť kitchen preparing the food was wearing her face mask as a chin warmer - rather defeats the object really. The company management needs to get on top of that kind of thing.
Quite a few private schools finished last Friday for the summer holidays.
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