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Coronavirus: The Thread

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Coronavirus: The Thread

Old 15th Jul 2021, 06:31
  #16341 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by highflyer40 View Post
I have heard this before. It is a fallacy. There is not the capacity for everyone in the UK to holiday at home. Whether border controls are relaxed or tightened makes no difference to the economy. They will be full either way.

I would suggest that the government would like to stick their head in the sand and go back 2 years and pretend covid never happened. People that think governments are trying to delay removing restrictions to control people are deluded.
Im not sure Boris has the capacity to think of this…
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Old 15th Jul 2021, 07:48
  #16342 (permalink)  
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Politico London Playbook

Oh dear

Playbook has lost count of the number of MPs and officials who have privately confessed to deleting the app in the last few days for fear of being sent into isolation.

We are rapidly approaching a situation where Westminster expects the general public to use the app and isolate when told to, but everyone quietly deletes their own apps and goes about life without fear of being pinged….
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Old 15th Jul 2021, 11:37
  #16343 (permalink)  
 
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The decision to recommend vaccine passports was taken so late that hospitality industry bosses heard about it just half an hour before the Prime Minister’s press conference on Monday.
A chum of mine is part of the management team which runs a large chain of pubs - we were discussing this a few weeks back and she said that this would be unworkable and that the sector has communicated this to Govt. Imagine your average publican asking to see evidence of vaccination before allowing you on the premises?

This whole Freedom Day mullarky has turned into a farce, and I fear we'll pay the price rather soon.
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Old 15th Jul 2021, 11:49
  #16344 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Politico London Playbook

Oh dear

Playbook has lost count of the number of MPs and officials who have privately confessed to deleting the app in the last few days for fear of being sent into isolation.

We are rapidly approaching a situation where Westminster expects the general public to use the app and isolate when told to, but everyone quietly deletes their own apps and goes about life without fear of being pinged….
Could the general public be allowed to isolate and delete Westminster? Might save a lot of bother in the long run.

A tour of the small shops in the local market town today indicates the public have matters well in hand and some neat solutions in force. The covered market has a one way system and entry control, The greengrocers likewise and an announced intention to remain a mask wearing area. The hardware store has a no entry without a basket policy - they have 3 baskets.
Indications are there is no urgency to change matters come "Freedom Day", you could practically bottle the scepticism.
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Old 15th Jul 2021, 11:51
  #16345 (permalink)  
 
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According to the advice to employers on gov.uk, all employers must carry out a full H & S and Risk assessment before getting their staff back in to their office.
If they discover any sort of risk, they must document what they will do about it.
1.Most employers do not know this.
2. The "advice" is somewhat fluffy - I have read it all. (I'm still alive)
3. It is a solicitors' charter. Only those in the law will make money out of this. A friend of mine is going to video their first day back, as their office cannot, physically, meet the requirements.
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Old 15th Jul 2021, 14:54
  #16346 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Douglas Bahada View Post
New figures from the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFA) Mortality Monitor released today show that cumulative mortality in the first six months of 2021 in England and Wales is running 0.4% below the 10-year average, once adjusted for the size and age of the population. This means, despite the surge in winter Covid deaths in January and February that spooked the country into accepting ongoing restrictions, 2021 is officially now a low mortality year. The low mortality since March has entirely cancelled out the initial spike.
Not sure exactly how they adjusted for the "size and age of the population", but that seems to be far from reality, at least for England, when I look at the weekly excess here:

https://www.gov.uk/government/statis...weekly-reports

More precisely, there was a deficit of 10,677 deaths in England since March, and an excess of 29,682 deaths in January and February. So, the deficit since March only "cancels out" 36% of the excess from January and February.

If we look at the entire pandemic, the total excess accumulated until March was 101,465. So, the deficit since March only "cancels out" about 10% of that excess.

Since nobody is immortal, of course long term the excess and deficit will "cancel out". But this is deceiving. What matters is how much those people's lives have been shortened by the virus. Because that "canceling out" will not resurrect those people who died previously.

So far, the recent deficit has not even "canceled out" the first 3 weeks of excess from 2020, in March-April, when there were 14,519 excess deaths. So, even for those 10,677 "canceled out" deaths, you could estimate those people's lives have been shortened, on average, by at least one year.
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Old 15th Jul 2021, 15:35
  #16347 (permalink)  
 
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Excellent post Mike
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Old 15th Jul 2021, 21:02
  #16348 (permalink)  
 
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Looks like some of the data may have been fabricated...

Huge study supporting ivermectin as Covid treatment withdrawn over ethical concerns
https://www.theguardian.com/science/...hical-concerns
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Old 15th Jul 2021, 21:59
  #16349 (permalink)  
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https://theconversation.com/most-cov...arm-you-163671

Most COVID deaths in England now are in the vaccinated – here’s why that shouldn’t alarm you

More vaccinated people are dying of COVID than unvaccinated people, according to a recent report from Public Health England(PHE). The report shows that 163 of the 257 people (63.4%) who died of the delta variant within 28 days of a positive COVID test between February 1 and June 21, had received at least one dose of the vaccine.

At first glance, this may seem alarming, but it is exactly as would be expected.

Here’s a simple thought experiment: imagine everyone is now fully vaccinated with COVID vaccines – which are excellent but can’t save all lives. Some people who get infected with COVID will still die. All of these people will be fully vaccinated – 100%. That doesn’t mean vaccines aren’t effective at reducing death.

The risk of dying from COVID doubles roughly every seven years older a patient is. The 35-year difference between a 35-year-old and a 70-year-old means the risk of death between the two patients has doubled five times – equivalently it has increased by a factor of 32. An unvaccinated 70-year-old might be 32 times more likely to die of COVID than an unvaccinated 35-year-old.

This dramatic variation of the risk profile with age means that even excellent vaccines don’t reduce the risk of death for older people to below the risk for some younger demographics.

PHE data suggests that being double vaccinated reduces the risk of being hospitalised with the now-dominant delta variant by around 96%.

Even conservatively assuming the vaccines are no more effective at preventing death than hospitalisation (actually they are likely to be more effective at preventing death) this means the risk of death for double vaccinated people has been cut to less than one-twentieth of the value for unvaccinated people with the same underlying risk profile.

However, the 20-fold decrease in risk afforded by the vaccine isn’t enough to offset the 32-fold increase in underlying risk of death of an 70-year-old over a 35-year-old. Given the same risk of infection, we would still expect to see more double-vaccinated 70-year-olds die from COVID than unvaccinated 35-year-olds…..
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Old 15th Jul 2021, 23:38
  #16350 (permalink)  
 
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And that dear reader is why, as a doubly vaccinated coffin dodger, I am not volunteering to join the party on the 19th. Not so much the odds of dying, but consider the odds of being proper poorly which are much higher. 48533 cases today, 261,382 over the last 7 days. Locally we have more cases than we have ever had and the curve is near vertical.

There is a story on the BBC news site about business bosses being concerned the NHS app is pinging people too often. More than 500,000 pings in a week. If there have been over a quarter of a million cases in the past week, perhaps it is not pinging often enough. Remember early on when everyone was complaining there wasn’t an effective track and trace app? Now they have got one, people turn it off because they don’t like what it tells them.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57854999
Follow that logic and everyone should watch the Covid briefings with their fingers in their ears singing LaLa.
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Old 15th Jul 2021, 23:59
  #16351 (permalink)  
 
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Well maybe the App is too sensitive and therefore “Pings” people that are not infected and thereby wasting their time self isolating for no reason! Maybe just get a test when pinged and just carry on if negative…
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Old 16th Jul 2021, 00:33
  #16352 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Out Of Trim View Post
Well maybe the App is too sensitive and therefore “Pings” people that are not infected and thereby wasting their time self isolating for no reason! Maybe just get a test when pinged and just carry on if negative…
Of course it pings people who are not infected. It would be a flaming good piece of software otherwise. We wouldn’t need testing!

The app should only send notifications to people when someone they have come into contact with for more than 15 minutes and at a distance of under two metres, tests positive. How close would you like to get to a potentially infected individual and how long would you like to be close to them?

Granted, a more intelligent approach to what to do if pinged would not go amiss. Perhaps isolate for a short period to give the bug time to mature and then get a test and carry on if negative. Equally, from a disease control stand point, it is utterly ludicrous that the app is optional and you can turn it off.

Last edited by Ninthace; 16th Jul 2021 at 00:51.
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Old 16th Jul 2021, 07:34
  #16353 (permalink)  
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https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/d...urne-n5q6lcwzm

Almost half of Australia in lockdown as Covid cases surge in Melbourne

Melbourne will join Sydney in lockdown as the highly infectious Delta variant spreads across the country.

The premier of Victoria, Daniel Andrews, said that the state, of which Melbourne is the capital, would enter a five-day lockdown. It will be the third this year, and means that 12.2 million Australians, nearly half the nation’s population, are in lockdown.

“We don’t want this getting away from us and being locked down for months,” he said. “It [the Delta variant] just explodes. We have to get in front of it.”

The staff of a removal company, who broke social distancing and mask-wearing rules, are thought to have been responsible for taking the virus from Sydney to Melbourne, 640 miles south.

The authorities have since confirmed that Delta was circulating among a crowd of tens of thousands at an Australian rules football match at Melbourne Cricket Ground on Saturday, and was transmitted between fans.

So far there are fewer than 30 known cases in Victoria but many more are expected. Andrews said the five-day lockdown would allow contact tracers to determine how much community transmission and mystery cases were circulating.

Sydney’s 5.5 million residents have been in lockdown for three weeks and face at least another two weeks as the authorities struggle to stem infections, which are approaching 1,000, including 70 new cases reported yesterday. However, shops are still trading, most businesses are open and individuals can travel to work if it is deemed essential.

Melbourne’s lockdown will be far stricter. Only essential shops and businesses will be open and people will have to stay within 5km of their homes if they exercise or shop. Only essential workers will be able to go to work…..
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Old 16th Jul 2021, 09:03
  #16354 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Out Of Trim View Post
Well maybe the App is too sensitive and therefore “Pings” people that are not infected and thereby wasting their time self isolating for no reason! Maybe just get a test when pinged and just carry on if negative…
Maybe the app isn’t sensitive enough, and we need another lockdown to get this current situation out of control. Closing in on 50,000 cases per day, with the health secretary saying 100,000 per day may be possible. Chris Whitty now saying hospital admissions “could get scary”. A 4 week lockdown now or a 3-4 month long one in late august or September. One of the two is going to happen, and I know which one I would like to have.
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Old 16th Jul 2021, 09:14
  #16355 (permalink)  
 
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'A 4 week lockdown now or a 3-4 month long one in late august or September. One of the two is going to happen, and I know which one I would like to have'

Well yes, we all would, everything being equal, but there are other costs which need to bear on framing the question. Think a tapered relaxation would have done the job. Who coined the 'freedom day' infantile expression ?
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Old 16th Jul 2021, 09:21
  #16356 (permalink)  
 
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The main problem is, it isn't going to be "freedom day" (more's the pity!!)...
The last thing we need now or EVER is any form of "lockdown".... What has happened to the vaccine that is protecting us??
Just get on with life and live it as best was you can.....
Just a question .... How do you become "pinged"?? Never happened to me, don't think my 'phone knows what "ping" is !!!
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Old 16th Jul 2021, 09:26
  #16357 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Mr Optimistic View Post
'A 4 week lockdown now or a 3-4 month long one in late august or September. One of the two is going to happen, and I know which one I would like to have'

Well yes, we all would, everything being equal, but there are other costs which need to bear on framing the question. Think a tapered relaxation would have done the job. Who coined the 'freedom day' infantile expression ?
From about 4 weeks ago anything other than a tightening of restrictions was always going to lead to the need for a new lockdown. Instant or tapered relaxation just changes when the long lockdown would start.

It is everywhere now. In the first lockdown we never knew anyone who tested positive. In the second we knew 2. Currently my wife has 9 out of her 21 staff (nhs workers) confirmed cases. My work has had a bad week. 6 confirmed cases out of 15 staff.
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Old 16th Jul 2021, 09:29
  #16358 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by highflyer40 View Post
Maybe the app isn’t sensitive enough,.
I see that the Bluetooth used by the App travels through walls - so if your neighbour is positive you get pinged - even if you haven't seen them in weeks.
I can envisage other like circumstances.
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Old 16th Jul 2021, 09:30
  #16359 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Planemike View Post
The main problem is, it isn't going to be "freedom day" (more's the pity!!)...
The last thing we need now or EVER is any form of "lockdown".... What has happened to the vaccine that is protecting us??
Just get on with life and live it as best was you can.....
Just a question .... How do you become "pinged"?? Never happened to me, don't think my 'phone knows what "ping" is !!!
Don’t worry about getting pinged. I think we all know here that you would never download the NHS app.

If someone gives your details to contact tracing you may get a text message telling you to isolate.

You legally don’t need to follow the app’s guidance. You legally DO need to adhere to the text if received telling you to isolate.
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Old 16th Jul 2021, 09:34
  #16360 (permalink)  
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Highflyer40,

At that rate it will burn itself out in weeks - Scotland is reportedly already past the peak.

Accepting they already had the highest number of cases in the UK, and Europe, but the worst places in England aren’t far behind.

https://www.scotsman.com/health/coro...yousaf-3303863
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