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Coronavirus: The Thread

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Coronavirus: The Thread

Old 13th Jul 2021, 08:11
  #16281 (permalink)  
 
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If those junior aides and those cleaning and serving food have to wear masks in the Houses of Parliament, so should MPs and visitors who bring in the risk of COVID19. One rule for ALL in this case.
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Old 13th Jul 2021, 08:23
  #16282 (permalink)  
 
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Excellent post ORAC! One rule for those that claim to care, another for the peasantry.

Heard an excellent interview with the Professor Graham Medley, who is doing Covid modelling for the govt, explaining the issues involved in building the model.
If you have an account it is here:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000xrz7 starts at 02:11
When asked about masks, he pointed out that they are only really effective if most people wear them. If around 30% fail to wear them when they should, the other 70% might as well not bother. He added he would definitely wear his.
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Old 13th Jul 2021, 08:36
  #16283 (permalink)  
 
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I was always taught that you should lead by example. It is a pity so few of our politicians believe in that simple maxim.
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Old 13th Jul 2021, 09:05
  #16284 (permalink)  
 
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Holland eased their restrictions about 2 weeks ago. There R number is now close to 6!

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.m...d-24514995.amp

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Old 13th Jul 2021, 09:22
  #16285 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by highflyer40 View Post
Holland eased their restrictions about 2 weeks ago. There R number is now close to 6!

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.m...d-24514995.amp
And Mark Rutte has had the decency to apologise for opening up too quickly and too soon.

If the UK has a similar rise in cases will Johnson follow his example? I very much doubt it!
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Old 13th Jul 2021, 09:22
  #16286 (permalink)  
 
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Interesting, until recently, how everyone was happy to follow Chris Whitty without question and accept his recommendations as he was the leading expert.
Now heís endorsing the easing of the lockdown, his expert opinion doesnít seem count for as much any more and everyone has quickly forgotten his role.


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Old 13th Jul 2021, 09:28
  #16287 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by annakm View Post
Interesting, until recently, how everyone was happy to follow Chris Whitty without question and accept his recommendations as he was the leading expert.
Now heís endorsing the easing of the lockdown, his expert opinion doesnít seem count for as much any more and everyone has quickly forgotten his role.

https://youtu.be/3KvNoKRWX3Y
The biggest problem in there approach is that they are basing this on ending restrictions but then asking/expecting the public to still continue to exercise their own restrictions. This is not going to happen. From day one it is going to be business as usual with most (obviously not all) back to prepandemic behaviour.
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Old 13th Jul 2021, 10:03
  #16288 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by highflyer40 View Post
The biggest problem in there approach is that they are basing this on ending restrictions but then asking/expecting the public to still continue to exercise their own restrictions. This is not going to happen. From day one it is going to be business as usual with most (obviously not all) back to prepandemic behaviour.
The modelling guy on the radio this morning said that was one of the unkowns. Not just how many will change behaviour but how many already have? That is what makes modelling the impact of July 19 so difficult. We now know quite a lot now about the behaviour of the disease and vaccines but rather less about the behaviour of people.
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Old 13th Jul 2021, 10:33
  #16289 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Ninthace View Post
The modelling guy on the radio this morning said that was one of the unkowns. Not just how many will change behaviour but how many already have? That is what makes modelling the impact of July 19 so difficult. We now know quite a lot now about the behaviour of the disease and vaccines but rather less about the behaviour of people.
I think there's little doubt the public will fall into two distinct camps. Those who remain very cautious and follow government advice (if that is they can understand exactly what that advice is) and those who will have a gung-ho attitude and go for broke as though "freedom day" means the end of the pandemic. The irony is that those in the "gung-ho" cohort are probably more likely to be the un or half vaccinated who will therefore be of greater risk of catch and then spreading the virus, as well, of course, of clogging up hospitals, if not of dying. The cautious cohort are generally older and are likely to be vaccinated.

Seeing what they must see on a daily basis it is really difficult to believe government can put trust in the public; the public is by and large not bright enough to understand nuanced messaging, and in many cases will ignore it anyway. The scene in London at the weekend, and in other places across the country and in seaside towns during the last spell of decent weather prove that.
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Old 13th Jul 2021, 11:37
  #16290 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
I think there's little doubt the public will fall into two distinct camps. Those who remain very cautious and follow government advice (if that is they can understand exactly what that advice is) and those who will have a gung-ho attitude and go for broke as though "freedom day" means the end of the pandemic. The irony is that those in the "gung-ho" cohort are probably more likely to be the un or half vaccinated who will therefore be of greater risk of catch and then spreading the virus, as well, of course, of clogging up hospitals, if not of dying. The cautious cohort are generally older and are likely to be vaccinated.

Seeing what they must see on a daily basis it is really difficult to believe government can put trust in the public; the public is by and large not bright enough to understand nuanced messaging, and in many cases will ignore it anyway. The scene in London at the weekend, and in other places across the country and in seaside towns during the last spell of decent weather prove that.
The flip side is that people have de facto stopped following advice and rules for many weeks now, and perhaps the lifting of restrictions is not going to make too much of a difference in practical terms.
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Old 13th Jul 2021, 12:05
  #16291 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by mike current View Post
The flip side is that people have de facto stopped following advice and rules for many weeks now, and perhaps the lifting of restrictions is not going to make too much of a difference in practical terms.
People have stopped following the regulations and advice because the government has been signalling that the rules are going to be scrapped. So of course people arenít going to follow them.

The situation we are in now means that tougher restrictions should have been brought in to ensure people follow them as much as possible.
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Old 13th Jul 2021, 13:11
  #16292 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by mike current View Post
The flip side is that people have de facto stopped following advice and rules for many weeks now, and perhaps the lifting of restrictions is not going to make too much of a difference in practical terms.
I don't know as that is altogether true, I guess it depends where you are. I have just visited Morrisons supermarket in Derby and didn't notice one unmasked person, however I have frequently noticed people on buses, mostly sat in the rear seats and young who don't wear masks or leave them wrapped around their chins.

Social distancing in indoor setting has largely gone for a ball of chalk, again I'm thinking particularly of shops. However with people masked up that shouldn't be so much of an issue which makes the whole idea of removing the legal requirement to wear masks (properly!!) even more bizarre.
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Old 13th Jul 2021, 13:47
  #16293 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Ninthace View Post
The modelling guy on the radio this morning said that was one of the unkowns. Not just how many will change behaviour but how many already have? That is what makes modelling the impact of July 19 so difficult. We now know quite a lot now about the behaviour of the disease and vaccines but rather less about the behaviour of people.
""Modelling""....aka computer games, with about as much relevance...!!!
The various vaccines seem to be helping us, also treatments for the virus which make it less of a killer.
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Old 13th Jul 2021, 13:57
  #16294 (permalink)  
 
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A family member, of a certain age, plays in a bridge group with other similar aged members. All together there are 12 in the party

One of the group has said he is not having the vaccine. No one knows whether this is for a medical reason or choice. Most of the club are pushing to have him removed as heís Ďa dangerí to the rest. All are fully vaccinated and in good health for their ages. This risk is surely more to him than the others. A risk that he is obviously fully aware of.

What a sad world we live in where we are seeing such division amongst formally good friends.
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Old 13th Jul 2021, 14:45
  #16295 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Planemike View Post
""Modelling""....aka computer games, with about as much relevance...!!!
The various vaccines seem to be helping us, also treatments for the virus which make it less of a killer.
You do post some tosh at times, perhaps you should listen to the broadcast I linked to.
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Old 13th Jul 2021, 14:52
  #16296 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Ninthace View Post
You do post some tosh at times, perhaps you should listen to the broadcast I linked to.
Please respect my views and opinions, they are not "tosh", in the way that I respect yours.....Thank you.....
I heard the broadcast live on Radio 4.
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Old 13th Jul 2021, 15:10
  #16297 (permalink)  
 
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Since the subject came up, Professor Medley made an interesting point when asked how long the current wave will last. Up to now the shape of the curve has been determined the effectiveness of the lock down. This has limited the height of the peak and meant a steep negative gradient prior to the easing of the lockdown.

The current wave is the first "natural" wave we have seen during the pandemic, i.e. few countermeasures. It will climb quite sharply and probably have quite a high maximum for a wave at this stage in a pandemic but the tail could be quite extended. Vaccines will affect the height of the hospitalisations and deaths curves but as any devotee of calculus will tell you, it is the integral that matters when it comes to totals. An extended curve could still mean significant numbers of victims but a low peak would decrease the risk of medical facilities being overwhelmed.
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Old 13th Jul 2021, 15:26
  #16298 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by annakm View Post
A family member, of a certain age, plays in a bridge group with other similar aged members. All together there are 12 in the party

One of the group has said he is not having the vaccine. No one knows whether this is for a medical reason or choice. Most of the club are pushing to have him removed as heís Ďa dangerí to the rest. All are fully vaccinated and in good health for their ages. This risk is surely more to him than the others. A risk that he is obviously fully aware of.
It has been stated that an 80-year old who has been fully vaccinated has the same risk of dying from Covid as an unvaccinated 50-year-old. So their risk is reduced but not removed. Similarly, it appears that unvaccinated people are more likely to transmit the virus, so by having an unvaccinated person in their midst, their chances of catching Covid are increased. Perhaps they are fully aware of this increased risk to them?
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Old 13th Jul 2021, 15:29
  #16299 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Planemike View Post
Please respect my views and opinions, they are not "tosh", in the way that I respect yours.....Thank you.....
I heard the broadcast live on Radio 4.
And yet you come out with Modelling""....aka computer games, with about as much relevance...!!!

You may have heard it but did you pay attention to it or did you just discount it? Do you know anything about how mathematical models are created and refined? Since you discount models as being irrelevant, how do you propose to manage the complex logistical requirements of the pandemic without some form of model to help you predict requirements, manage resources and order supplies? Clearly you know all about it so share your wisdom - and that does not mean just regurgitating a diatribe against the early models.
I might respect your views if you supported them with a better reasoned argument rather than three exclamation marks!!! !

Listening, out.

Last edited by Ninthace; 13th Jul 2021 at 16:13.
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Old 13th Jul 2021, 16:08
  #16300 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by annakm View Post
A family member, of a certain age, plays in a bridge group with other similar aged members. All together there are 12 in the party

One of the group has said he is not having the vaccine. No one knows whether this is for a medical reason or choice. Most of the club are pushing to have him removed as heís Ďa dangerí to the rest. All are fully vaccinated and in good health for their ages. This risk is surely more to him than the others. A risk that he is obviously fully aware of.

What a sad world we live in where we are seeing such division amongst formally good friends.
I know of a similar group of octogenarians, about 50 of them. One refuses to have the vaccine, bit of tinfoil hat wearer by all accounts. She has been banned from the group. Quite rightly imo.
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