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Coronavirus: The Thread

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Coronavirus: The Thread

Old 10th Jul 2021, 06:59
  #16241 (permalink)  
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Old 10th Jul 2021, 16:32
  #16242 (permalink)  
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Not compulsory.... until they are once the summer is over.....

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/c...s-b945097.html

Coronavirus UK Live: Covid passports ‘will be compulsory in pubs, clubs and restaurants’

Covid certificates will be needed to enter pubs, bars, restaurants and clubs under plans to stave off a fourth wave of the virus in the autumn, it has been reported.

The proposals would mean Britons would have to show vaccination passports to prove they are double-jabbed or have had a recent negative test before entering entertainment venues.

Experts hope the move will increase the stalling vaccination rates among young people and limit another surge in cases.

A Downing Street source told The Times: “In autumn vaccine passports could become an important tool that will allow us to keep things open.”
Another added: “If we can show real benefits of getting vaccinated in terms of everyday life then it could be quite a useful tool.”

The Government’s certification review release earlier in the week said although the so-called vaccine passports would not be mandated now, it did not rule out the prospect if England faces “a difficult situation in autumn or winter”.

Last edited by ORAC; 10th Jul 2021 at 16:51.
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Old 10th Jul 2021, 16:39
  #16243 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Dannyboy39 View Post
Well SAGE modelling’s central scenario was that we would be having 600-700 hospitalisations a day at the moment. And guess what we’re not… better than the best case scenario. Their modelling has been hopelessly wrong throughout.
Hit 573 admissions on July 6th - when data up to July 10th are released it'll probably be clear that we've now hit 600 hospital admissions per day.

Hopelessly wrong??? Pretty damn good for a prediction made back in February.
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Old 10th Jul 2021, 16:53
  #16244 (permalink)  
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Hopelessly wrong??? Pretty damn good for a prediction made back in February.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ons-Covid.html

Up to 40% of 'Covid hospital patients' infected with Delta variant may have been admitted for a different illness, official figures suggest


Four out of 10 patients hospitalised with the Indian Covid variant in England may have been admitted for something else, MailOnline analysis of official data suggests.

Public Health England's fortnightly report on the 'Delta' strain showed a total of 1,904 people had spent at least one night in hospital with the mutant virus by June 21.

But the agency admits 739 (39 per cent) of these patients may have gone to hospital for a different condition or injury and tested positive through routine NHS testing.

Experts said the findings show that a significant number of the Covid admissions reported by the Government every day will be 'incidental cases'.

Cambridge University epidemiologist Dr Raghib Ali and Dr Simon Clarke, a microbiologist at Reading University, told MailOnline that this will become more common as the outbreak grows.....

There are still some patients who fall gravely ill with the virus and do not get tested until they arrive at hospital, Dr Raghib said, but this is happening less often now that testing is so widespread.

Fewer people are becoming severely ill thanks to the vaccines. Professor Paul Hunter, an expert in medicine at the University of East Anglia, said that by next winter 'most cases admitted with a positive test will not be admitted because of Covid'.

PHE's figures also show that of the Indian variant patients who presented at A&E by June 21, just over three in 10 spent the night in hospital, with the rest sent home on the same day.......
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Old 10th Jul 2021, 17:56
  #16245 (permalink)  
 
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Even if true - it does not make the model that far out and they will still require special handling and isolation because of their Covid status.
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Old 10th Jul 2021, 18:16
  #16246 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by stagger View Post
Hit 573 admissions on July 6th - when data up to July 10th are released it'll probably be clear that we've now hit 600 hospital admissions per day.

Hopelessly wrong??? Pretty damn good for a prediction made back in February.
I very rarely agree with the Spectator, but this is the source of my information.

Actual: 461 patients were admitted with Covid on 7 July
Best case scenario: 550 hospitalisations
Central scenario: Roughly 1100
Pessimistic scenario: 1900.

Lies, damn lies and statistics... And as you say, modelled before the severity of the Johnson variant was known.
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Old 10th Jul 2021, 18:17
  #16247 (permalink)  
 
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Freedom Day,
It's not all good news - more self isolation. risk of vaccine resitant variant, rise in lLong Covid cases. bit of a gamble. NHS having to fiddle isolation rules to maintain staff levels.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknew...ant/ar-AALRpfU
https://khn.org/morning-breakout/uks...urge-in-young/
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/155230...us-experiment/
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/f...gins-cm9r5nkkw
https://www.itv.com/news/2021-07-09/...ged-by-nhs-app
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Old 11th Jul 2021, 05:28
  #16248 (permalink)  
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Interesting to the on the R5 Live Science programme this morning that school kids are gaming the Lateral Flow Tests to get out of going to school.

They tested the method, now being spread widely on TikTok, and it works as stated - which is just to pour a few drops of a soft drink such as Coke or orange juice onto the test.

Apparently the antibodies in the test prefer a very narrow window of ph and the acidity in the juice causes them to unwind and react and give a positive indication.

Which, unless parents keep close supervision (and schools of course) of testing, many test results may be deliberate false positives….
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Old 11th Jul 2021, 06:07
  #16249 (permalink)  
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https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/w...eeks-d2d7sj3wv

Wait between Covid vaccinations ‘to be cut to four weeks’

The gap between coronavirus vaccine doses is set to be halved to four weeks to accelerate the administration of second jabs.

No 10 officials have asked the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) to provide urgent advice on reducing the dosing interval from eight weeks in the light of surging cases of the Delta variant and the imminent easing of lockdown restrictions.

If the JCVI approves the reduction in the vaccine interval, it will open up the prospect of quarantine-free foreign travel in time for the school holidays for millions of people who will otherwise have to wait a further month until they have been double-vaccinated.

The government is planning a publicity drive after a fall in demand for first doses, particularly among young men. Nearly half of male 18 to 24-year-olds are unvaccinated more than three weeks after access was given to all adults.

Plans are being drawn up to include the England football team and YouTube influencers in a publicity blitz. The NHS will try to persuade football fans at Wembley to get a jab before the match today at a clinic near the stadium.

Young men have recorded far more infections than any other group in recent days. According to Public Health England surveillance data, 41,462 men in their twenties and 34,831 women of the same age have tested positive in the past fortnight…….

On average 97,000 first vaccine doses were given over the past seven days, down from a peak of 500,000 a day in March. About 160,000 second doses were administered each day, down from 350,000 a month ago.

Insiders say supply is not the obstacle. Rather, demand for first doses is vanishing…..

Some vaccine centres have invited people to have their second jab early, concerned that unused stocks will be wasted. But the health authorities have told them to stick to the guidance, which states that nobody should receive their second vaccine less than eight weeks after the first.…..

A No 10 source said the JCVI had been asked to provide urgent advice on the pros and cons of reducing the gap between doses to four weeks. An announcement is expected within days.

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Old 11th Jul 2021, 07:00
  #16250 (permalink)  
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https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/s...tegy-qcrllp9kb

Singapore abandons its zero-Covid strategy

For over a year Singapore has pursued a “Covid-zero” strategy that quashed the spread of the coronavirus by strict border controls, a mask mandate, enforced social distancing and aggressive contact tracing.

But the authoritarian city-state will this week embark on a new “living with Covid” mission, easing restrictions after its leaders concluded that the disease will not be eradicated as new variants continue to emerge.

From tomorrow, the cap on restaurant dining out will be lifted from two to five per group as an initial move, gym classes can resume and wedding parties of 250 can be staged, as long as everyone has been tested.

The daily monitoring of new case statistics that has dominated public attention will be replaced by a focus on medical “outcomes” such as hospital numbers, oxygen needs and serious illness….

The country’s leaders have unveiled a plan to navigate from “pandemic to endemic” and co-exist with the virus.


“The bad news is that Covid may never go away,” said the ministers of health, trade and industry and finance who run the government’s coronavirus task force last month.

“The good news is that it is possible to live normally with it in our midst. We can’t eradicate it but we can turn the pandemic into something much less threatening, like influenza, hand, foot and mouth disease or chickenpox, and get on with our lives.”

Central to the strategy is the country’s high-speed vaccination rollout combined with rapid-testing systems for public events, large gatherings and establishments such as restaurants, gyms and beauty salons.

Singapore has ramped up its vaccination programme with a target of inoculating two thirds of the population by the National Day celebrations on August 9 — a symbolic milestone for the new approach. The government aims to have given double doses to 50 per cent of the population of nearly six million within two weeks, the same level as now achieved in Britain….

Ong Ye Kung, the health minister, said that Singapore was pursuing a “middle path” between Britain’s mass reopening and the continued extreme caution and closed borders of Australia and China. “What you would see is not a big-bang opening but a progressive one,” he said.

After tomorrow’s first moves, new testing rules will be introduced on Thursday for employees dealing directly with customers. Restaurant workers, street-food hawkers, sports coaches, gym instructors and beauty salon staff must be checked every 14 days with rapid antigen tests.

In trial runs, testing centres have been running like “well-oiled machines”, officials said. But the aim is to make the process even quicker and smoother by deploying breathalyser kits that deliver near-instant results at office buildings, shopping malls, hospitals and schools.

Mask-wearing will still be required almost everywhere — a practice that is monitored by legions of “safe-distancing ambassadors”. Punishment for failing to do so is a £160 fine and social shaming by others, who immediately post cameraphone footage online of bare-faced transgressors.

On subways trains, attendants will continue to enforce orders for passengers to remain silent to prevent the spread of droplets exhaled during talking. And in restaurants, music and videos must be switched off so that people do not have to raise their voices to make themselves heard…..

The government’s message is focused on public health. But the new thrust also reflects business lobbying and the economic reality for a financial and trading hub.

“Singapore’s lifeblood is free trade and the free flow of services, so it’s just a hard-nosed pragmatism that we have to open up some time,” said Jeremy Lim, associate professor of public health at the National University of Singapore.

“Singapore residents, by and large, understand what the government is trying to do and agree with the overall trajectory. Any concerns are around the pace — some will say it’s too fast, some that it’s too slow.

“It’s been a really long journey and people the world over are fatigued. We just have to come to terms with the reality as it is rather than where we wanted to be.”
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Old 11th Jul 2021, 08:10
  #16251 (permalink)  
 
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...id-freedom-day

The British Public don't appear to be fully behind "Freedom Day"


In the interests of balance it is pretty clear the UK government is out of step with public opinion, and this isn't likely to improve any if daily new case figures, and hospital admissions continue to rise exponentially as they are forecast to do.

"Freedom Day" could be Johnson's greatest mistake thus far, and he hasn't got his "Aunt Sally" Hancock to pin the blame on. Opportunity for Keir Starmer? Yes. Will he grab it? Probably not.
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Old 11th Jul 2021, 08:42
  #16252 (permalink)  
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It should be noted that that the Labour Party, as repeated again on the Marr show this morning, is on board with the government unlocking plan except for the paper thin difference of wanting improved ventilation in schools (without specifying how) and the wearing of masks.

We’ve discussed masks before, it will be voluntary but organisations and companies will be permitted to impose their own restrictions and most transport and supermarkets will do so - but those who have been failing to wear them haven’t been challenged around here for the last month or so anyway.
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Old 11th Jul 2021, 09:02
  #16253 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Ninthace View Post
Freedom Day,
It's not all good news - more self isolation. risk of vaccine resitant variant, rise in lLong Covid cases. bit of a gamble. NHS having to fiddle isolation rules to maintain staff levels.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknew...ant/ar-AALRpfU
https://khn.org/morning-breakout/uks...urge-in-young/
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/155230...us-experiment/
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/f...gins-cm9r5nkkw
https://www.itv.com/news/2021-07-09/...ged-by-nhs-app
Also Pfizer have stated that their vaccine may start to fade after 6 months. So as we get ready to unlock quite a large number of the most at risk groups, namely the elderly are going to start to be vulnerable again. As they got their doses about 6 months ago.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.d...-immunity.html
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Old 11th Jul 2021, 09:45
  #16254 (permalink)  
 
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I am concerned about Long Covid in the young which appears to be pretty debilitating in a significant number of cases. The NHS website says it affects 7.4% of those aged 2-11 and 8.4% of those aged 12-16. Granted the percentage in adults is higher, but they at least have the option of a vaccine in most cases. The lifting of restrictions within schools, and further opening up of society, in the face of a fairly infectious virus coupled a rising tide of cases and no vaccination programme, means that most of those of school age are likely to be infected at some point.

Are we asking our children and their parents to shoulder a disproportionate part of the burden of arising from current government policy?
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Old 11th Jul 2021, 09:53
  #16255 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/s...tegy-qcrllp9kb

Singapore abandons its zero-Covid strategy

For over a year Singapore has pursued a “Covid-zero” strategy that quashed the spread of the coronavirus by strict border controls, a mask mandate, enforced social distancing and aggressive contact tracing.

But the authoritarian city-state will this week embark on a new “living with Covid” mission, easing restrictions after its leaders concluded that the disease will not be eradicated as new variants continue to emerge.

From tomorrow, the cap on restaurant dining out will be lifted from two to five per group as an initial move, gym classes can resume and wedding parties of 250 can be staged, as long as everyone has been tested.

The daily monitoring of new case statistics that has dominated public attention will be replaced by a focus on medical “outcomes” such as hospital numbers, oxygen needs and serious illness….

The country’s leaders have unveiled a plan to navigate from “pandemic to endemic” and co-exist with the virus.


“The bad news is that Covid may never go away,” said the ministers of health, trade and industry and finance who run the government’s coronavirus task force last month.

“The good news is that it is possible to live normally with it in our midst. We can’t eradicate it but we can turn the pandemic into something much less threatening, like influenza, hand, foot and mouth disease or chickenpox, and get on with our lives.”

Central to the strategy is the country’s high-speed vaccination rollout combined with rapid-testing systems for public events, large gatherings and establishments such as restaurants, gyms and beauty salons.

Singapore has ramped up its vaccination programme with a target of inoculating two thirds of the population by the National Day celebrations on August 9 — a symbolic milestone for the new approach. The government aims to have given double doses to 50 per cent of the population of nearly six million within two weeks, the same level as now achieved in Britain….

Ong Ye Kung, the health minister, said that Singapore was pursuing a “middle path” between Britain’s mass reopening and the continued extreme caution and closed borders of Australia and China. “What you would see is not a big-bang opening but a progressive one,” he said.

After tomorrow’s first moves, new testing rules will be introduced on Thursday for employees dealing directly with customers. Restaurant workers, street-food hawkers, sports coaches, gym instructors and beauty salon staff must be checked every 14 days with rapid antigen tests.

In trial runs, testing centres have been running like “well-oiled machines”, officials said. But the aim is to make the process even quicker and smoother by deploying breathalyser kits that deliver near-instant results at office buildings, shopping malls, hospitals and schools.

Mask-wearing will still be required almost everywhere — a practice that is monitored by legions of “safe-distancing ambassadors”. Punishment for failing to do so is a £160 fine and social shaming by others, who immediately post cameraphone footage online of bare-faced transgressors.

On subways trains, attendants will continue to enforce orders for passengers to remain silent to prevent the spread of droplets exhaled during talking. And in restaurants, music and videos must be switched off so that people do not have to raise their voices to make themselves heard…..

The government’s message is focused on public health. But the new thrust also reflects business lobbying and the economic reality for a financial and trading hub.

“Singapore’s lifeblood is free trade and the free flow of services, so it’s just a hard-nosed pragmatism that we have to open up some time,” said Jeremy Lim, associate professor of public health at the National University of Singapore.

“Singapore residents, by and large, understand what the government is trying to do and agree with the overall trajectory. Any concerns are around the pace — some will say it’s too fast, some that it’s too slow.

“It’s been a really long journey and people the world over are fatigued. We just have to come to terms with the reality as it is rather than where we wanted to be.”
Singapore has several advantages over the UK. They have experience of past coronavirus infections, they are starting from a low incidence of disease within the population, they have a test, trace and isolate system that actually works well and they have population that understands the need and is prepared to put the effort in and apply peer pressure to those that shirk their civil responsibilities.
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Old 11th Jul 2021, 10:44
  #16256 (permalink)  
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Also Pfizer have stated that their vaccine may start to fade after 6 months. So as we get ready to unlock quite a large number of the most at risk groups, namely the elderly are going to start to be vulnerable again.
They, including me, received the AZ vaccine…..

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/h...-b1873942.html
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Old 11th Jul 2021, 11:24
  #16257 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
They, including me, received the AZ vaccine…..

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/h...-b1873942.html
Some, including older friends of mine, received Pfizer.
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Old 11th Jul 2021, 13:04
  #16258 (permalink)  
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Forget inside Wembley, Sky are covering the day live and the massed crowds outside the ground over 6 hours before the game have to be seen - and hardly a mask in sight.

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Old 11th Jul 2021, 14:26
  #16259 (permalink)  
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Old 11th Jul 2021, 14:43
  #16260 (permalink)  
 
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No masks on the telly with a full house at Wimbledon either. OK I saw an old couple wearing masks.
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