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Coronavirus: The Thread

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Coronavirus: The Thread

Old 14th May 2021, 12:59
  #15461 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Ancient Observer View Post
The Cultural stuff is an interesting problem. Should cultural sensitivity over-ride protection of others in the population?

There are large groups of anti-vaxxers who have a particular background. One just said to me that they do not like the "authorities" and will carry on not being vaccinated.
At what point does society say this is not acceptable??

I have no idea!
Wonder if their dislike of 'authorities' translates into not accepting their welfare cheques.
vaccine passports might persuade them I suppose. No passport, no flight.
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Old 14th May 2021, 14:42
  #15462 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Mr Optimistic View Post
Wonder if their dislike of 'authorities' translates into not accepting their welfare cheques.
vaccine passports might persuade them I suppose. No passport, no flight.

I think youíll find a lot of the problems are now from those returning to the U.K. and if youíre a British citizen you cannot be denied entry - even without a passport.

Why are we worried anyway? The vaccine works, doesnít it? If youíve received yours as part of your civic duty, the only people vulnerable are those who have chosen not to receive it. Thereís been enough publicity for both sides of the argument to have enough information for anyone to make their own decisions based on their individual risk. With 70% of the population opting in, the NHS wonít be overwhelmed by Covid specifically, just all the other morbidities that have always been in circulation.
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Old 14th May 2021, 17:12
  #15463 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by BWSBoy6 View Post
I think youíll find a lot of the problems are now from those returning to the U.K. and if youíre a British citizen you cannot be denied entry - even without a passport.

Why are we worried anyway? The vaccine works, doesnít it? If youíve received yours as part of your civic duty, the only people vulnerable are those who have chosen not to receive it. Thereís been enough publicity for both sides of the argument to have enough information for anyone to make their own decisions based on their individual risk. With 70% of the population opting in, the NHS wonít be overwhelmed by Covid specifically, just all the other morbidities that have always been in circulation.
Currently 1 in 1650 roughly have the virus at present according to ONS data which is still a decrease. Which means 1649 in 1650 people do not have it... some perspective required despite the media doing its best to wet itself. The UK also doing 1m tests a day to pick up just over 2000 cases ainít half bad.
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Old 14th May 2021, 17:29
  #15464 (permalink)  
 
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I recall in early March 2020, people wondering what all the fuss was about regarding some virus that was common in China but causing only a handful of deaths in the UK
Then people found out what exponential growth means
We had a similiar episode in autumn 2020, when we thought Covid was beaten. Then a new variant turned up in Kent and we had 1,500 deaths per day in January

I'm not saying we're going to repeat the last 14 months, but "it will all be fine, stop worrying about it" seems to have bitten us hard in the backside more than once since the beginning of 2020. There are enough scientists with a serious looking expression on their face to make me think the Indian variant is worthy of attention and respect if we are to deal with it and avoid a 3rd wave (and no I do not want another 3 months of lockdown)
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Old 14th May 2021, 19:54
  #15465 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Dannyboy39 View Post
Currently 1 in 1650 roughly have the virus at present according to ONS data which is still a decrease. Which means 1649 in 1650 people do not have it... some perspective required despite the media doing its best to wet itself. The UK also doing 1m tests a day to pick up just over 2000 cases ainít half bad.
Quite agree.

Tim Spector of the Zoe Covid Symptom Study App ( which contributes trends and figures to the government) has tweeted this evening:

ďPlenty of scary models around that Iím treating with a pinch of salt-, ALL the data shows vaccines are working and I donít buy into an Indian Third wave scenario that some of the media seem to be whipping upď
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Old 15th May 2021, 04:32
  #15466 (permalink)  
 
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So SAGE are saying that the Indian variant is up to 50% more infectious potentially. One model is showing that that based on a worst case scenario something like 10-14k hospitalisations A DAY could occur and over 1000 deaths a day in high summer. Clearly there is some benefit to the warmer temperatures too; not that believe this is a seasonal illness (see SA).

55m vaccines have now been given out where the scientists have good confidence that it is fairly effective against. Where is the credibility of these models?
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Old 15th May 2021, 07:29
  #15467 (permalink)  
 
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I think youíll find a lot of the problems are now from those returning to the U.K. and if youíre a British citizen you cannot be denied entry - even without a passport.
A few weeks back, when it was announced that the govt was giving British citizens etc several days to return from India before it would be put on the red list, I was listening to a talk-radion station. During the course of a couple of hours, many British Indians were phoning in to implore that NO-ONE should be allowed back in without going through the quarantine hotel system as it was apparently all too easy to acquire a negative covid test/pass/authorisation. They felt that it was inevitable that the Indian variant would take hold in the UK if the repatriation went ahead. This now seems to have come to pass......to confirm it, all the clusters are where there are heavy concentrations of Indian British.

It's easy to be clever AFTER an event, but it's also possible to be a bit clever beforehand. I really do wonder sometimes if this govt does things on purpose, as they cannot be so incompetant with all their resources and depth of knowledge.
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Old 15th May 2021, 07:59
  #15468 (permalink)  
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A few weeks back, when it was announced that the govt was giving British citizens etc several days to return from India before it would be put on the red list, I was listening to a talk-radion station. During the course of a couple of hours, many British Indians were phoning in to implore that NO-ONE should be allowed back in without going through the quarantine hotel system
As said at the time, the problem was that the required hotel accommodation didn’t exist. Most hotels had furloughed staff and closed and either couldn’t, or weren’t interested, in hiring the staff required to provide security, room service etc. In fact hotels that had signed up were dropping out of the scheme. In took weeks to find and get the rooms required up and running.
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Old 15th May 2021, 08:45
  #15469 (permalink)  
 
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As said at the time, the problem was that the required hotel accommodation didn’t exist. Most hotels had furloughed staff and closed and either couldn’t, or weren’t interested, in hiring the staff required to provide security, room service etc. In fact hotels that had signed up were dropping out of the scheme. In took weeks to find and get the rooms required up and running.
Of course the accomodation and resources existed - but obviously the amount being offered wasn't enough.
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Old 15th May 2021, 09:05
  #15470 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SWBKCB View Post
Of course the accomodation and resources existed - but obviously the amount being offered wasn't enough.


The "not enough resources" argument sounds a bit SOP,/C&P, probably issued from a Head Office somewhere.

There were most definitely a significant number of hotels at LHR who were scrambling around for trade last summer/autumn/into the winter. The buildings were open, skeleton staff were in, the one I know best had some staff were furloughed but they lived locally (mainly Hounslow) and could have come in PDQ in the event of an upturn....

That hotel's management did look at signing up to the managed quarantine scheme when it was first floated but when they looked at the costs involved (segregating floors, deeper level of cleaning than usual on the rooms to be used, provision of room service - something they didn't normally provide ) vs. the amount HMG was offering there was no financial advantage to opening up...it was cheaper to leave whole floors in mothballs and let many of the staff stay on furlough.
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Old 15th May 2021, 09:44
  #15471 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SpringHeeledJack View Post
A few weeks back, when it was announced that the govt was giving British citizens etc several days to return from India before it would be put on the red list, I was listening to a talk-radion station. During the course of a couple of hours, many British Indians were phoning in to implore that NO-ONE should be allowed back in without going through the quarantine hotel system as it was apparently all too easy to acquire a negative covid test/pass/authorisation. They felt that it was inevitable that the Indian variant would take hold in the UK if the repatriation went ahead. This now seems to have come to pass......to confirm it, all the clusters are where there are heavy concentrations of Indian British.

It's easy to be clever AFTER an event, but it's also possible to be a bit clever beforehand. I really do wonder sometimes if this govt does things on purpose, as they cannot be so incompetant with all their resources and depth of knowledge.
Quite agree.

Water under the bridge now, I know, but in some countries, when you don’t particularly want to comply with a rule, you just liaise with an official who for a small fee will ensure you can bypass any inconvenience so it is assumed that the same rules apply when its nationals relocate overseas. In some nations, this way of dealing with potential disadvantages is a way of life - right from the top of government to the local official. It’s how their economy works. Unfortunately, the consequence of this form of business arrangement means that proper funding doesn’t reach the institutions, such as hospitals and health services. When that nation has a major catastrophe, it doesn’t take long for the systems to collapse as corners have been cut, essential drugs and oxygen sold on a black market and for profiteers to rapidly move in to exploit the chaos and as always, those that can least afford it are the ones who bear the brunt.
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Old 15th May 2021, 10:04
  #15472 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by wiggy View Post


The "not enough resources" argument sounds a bit SOP,/C&P, probably issued from a Head Office somewhere.

There were most definitely a significant number of hotels at LHR who were scrambling around for trade last summer/autumn/into the winter. The buildings were open, skeleton staff were in, the one I know best had some staff were furloughed but they lived locally (mainly Hounslow) and could have come in PDQ in the event of an upturn....

That hotel's management did look at signing up to the managed quarantine scheme when it was first floated but when they looked at the costs involved (segregating floors, deeper level of cleaning than usual on the rooms to be used, provision of room service - something they didn't normally provide ) vs. the amount HMG was offering there was no financial advantage to opening up...it was cheaper to leave whole floors in mothballs and let many of the staff stay on furlough.
I imagine there's more than a little truth in this, and when you add to the the OTT belt and braces requirements and hoop jumping that are the inevitable consequence of dealing with government I imagine a number of businesses simply asked themselves "is it really worth it (for the business)" when the government is essentially already paying 80% of my staffs wages to allow me to keep them on my books".
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Old 15th May 2021, 11:16
  #15473 (permalink)  
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I’ll also point out that a lot of arrivals were, and perhaps still are, able to dodge quarantine by transferring flights in non-red list countries (some are actually offering quarantine. “holidays” including a few nights 5 star hotels at below the cost charged for quarantine in the UK. Turkey at first but also, as mentioned Bahrain, Saudi and doubtless others). And if not isolated they could, of course, be infecting others at the same hotels before they continue their journey onwards.

https://www.thenationalnews.com/worl...rkey-1.1218009

Using Dublin and then catching a ferry has long been a way of doing so, and Ireland only switched from requiring arrivals from India to self-isolate and provide a passenger locator form (including for those travelling onto NI) to using Hotel quarantine on 4th May, twelve days after the UK.

https://www.thehindu.com/news/nation...le34457144.ece

https://www.nidirect.gov.uk/articles...d-list-country

So whilst the front door was locked, the back door was open. And in the modern world you can’t stop it arriving eventually France has identified 24 clusters and cases are reported to most other European nations. The numbers are low - but they haven’t the genomic network that the UK has and haven’t been looking for it ass intensely - so far.

Last edited by ORAC; 15th May 2021 at 12:52.
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Old 15th May 2021, 11:51
  #15474 (permalink)  
 
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What would be the economic cost of insisting everyone who wants to travel to the UK to quarantine on arrival (and if hotel space is limited then tough luck) versus that of yet another lockdown? A year+ in and we're still not on top of this - madness!
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Old 15th May 2021, 12:35
  #15475 (permalink)  
 
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This is a case of Deja Vu. We watched China and did nothing until it was too late and now itís the same with India. This government has always been reactive and never proactive.
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Old 15th May 2021, 13:00
  #15476 (permalink)  
 
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Not to defend this government at all - but what can they do?

There will always be variants coming from all over the world. If we did this for every single variant, we will never reopen. It is unrealistic to expect the whole global population to have been vaccinated before the end of next year.

Every "sovereign" country will have their own rules and requirements. Unless everyone did everything the same, at the same time, we wouldn't have this problem. But that would clearly never happen.
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Old 16th May 2021, 06:15
  #15477 (permalink)  
 
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The poster child for how to handle the pandemic in the start, namely South East Asia is just starting to have a rough time.

https://time.com/6046172/southeast-asia-covid/

Itís just going to take on mutation that is resistant to the vaccines and we will all be right back weíre we started.

All these countries with low vaccination rates, but essentially some vaccinated are in my opinion going to be our downfall. America springs to mind here with such a large anti vaccine mindset. The virus able to spread at will but vitally able to also interact with the vaccine is a pure breeding ground for mutations to occur to bypass the effects.
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Old 16th May 2021, 07:23
  #15478 (permalink)  
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https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...potent-strain-

India study shows 97.4% of those vaccinated were protectedfrom infection

Does the Indian variant of Sars-CoV-2, B1.617.2, have the capacity to escape vaccines? Is it really more transmissible than the Kent variant, and by how much? Those are the urgent questions which government scientific advisers are going to have to try to answer over the next week or two – and the answers will have profound consequences for life in Britain over the next few months….

We don’t have much data to answer the above questions at present, but one piece of evidence which will be taken into account is an observational study of 3,235 healthcare workers based at the Indraprastha Apollo Hospital in Delhi. The group, all of whom had been vaccinated with the Covishield vaccine – as the AstraZeneca vaccine is branded in India – were subsequently tested for Covid 19. Of the 3,235, 85 were found to have the infection, 65 of whom had been fully-vaccinated and 20 of whom had had one jab.

The study, reported in the Hindustan Times, observed that the hospitalisation rate was just 0.06 per cent – which means that just two of the workers can have suffered a serious enough illness as to require hospital treatment. There were no ICU admissions or deaths in the group.

The study is of limited value in calculating the efficacy of the AstraZeneca vaccine against the B1.617.2 strain. It is an observational study, with no control group of unvaccinated people to compare against the vaccinated group. It has not been peer-reviewed and it is not clear how many of those who had been infected were infected with the B1.617.2 strain as opposed to other variants of the virus. There is, however, other data* from India suggesting that B1.617.2 strain has overwhelmed all others - making up the majority of infections by mid-April .

Nevertheless, if B1.617.2 really were evading the AstraZeneca vaccine to an extent which threatened a huge third wave of infections in Britain it is hard to imagine that it wouldn’t have shown up in the Delhi study. The study’s finding appears to match early observations from Bolton, Blackburn and other ‘hotspots’ which have seen a large increase in overall infections over the past week, blamed on a surge in B1.617.2 cases. So far, there has been no increase in hospitalisations in those places…..

*
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Old 16th May 2021, 08:08
  #15479 (permalink)  
 
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What is super frustrating is that seemingly the majority of not all of the people in Bolton who have gone into hospital, have been eligible for the vaccine and not bothered to receive it.

I still really donít understand the reasons for vaccine hesitancy - someone please educate me.

At the same time, everyone else cannot keep their lives on hold because of this % of people. I fear that these hesitant communities will now be targeted with far right bile.

It is quite curious to see the actions of the US CDC recently in comparison to other countries like the U.K. In the EU also, Italy has just dropped its self isolation requirements for travellers if you have a negative test. Same virus - different rules? Different science?
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Old 16th May 2021, 08:34
  #15480 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Dannyboy39 View Post
What is super frustrating is that seemingly the majority of not all of the people in Bolton who have gone into hospital, have been eligible for the vaccine and not bothered to receive it.

I still really donít understand the reasons for vaccine hesitancy - someone please educate me.

At the same time, everyone else cannot keep their lives on hold because of this % of people. I fear that these hesitant communities will now be targeted with far right bile.

It is quite curious to see the actions of the US CDC recently in comparison to other countries like the U.K. In the EU also, Italy has just dropped its self isolation requirements for travellers if you have a negative test. Same virus - different rules? Different science?
It defies any sort of logic, and the only realistic conclusion that can be drawn is that they are simply thick, or stupid, or both.

It is possible blame could be attached to religious leaders, and of course the the wonderful tool we all use, the internet, which can be and is used by people who want to peddle lies and disinformation for their own twisted reasons. Though I know many people would be against it, I would like to see vaccine passports issued which would be required to be shown to enter areas where people gather in large numbers indoors. However I can see that people who are not yet eligible for vaccination might be (rightly) peeved. If there were a mechanism that permitted that group free access to venues until such time as they have been offered and taken their first vaccine shot that may make a domestic passport system more palatable, but it would probably take far too long to develop and roll out.

There definitely needs to be some sanction for those selfish people who refuse vaccination for non-medical reasons.
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