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Coronavirus: The Thread

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Coronavirus: The Thread

Old 31st Jan 2020, 14:55
  #121 (permalink)  
 
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Global corona virus cases overtakes SARS

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51322733
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Old 31st Jan 2020, 16:50
  #122 (permalink)  
 
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I see that two suspected cases from East Yorkshire have been sent to the RVI in Newcastle. Could this be Mike Ashley’s last signings in the transfer window.

Hat, coat but I am a Geordie.
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Old 31st Jan 2020, 17:07
  #123 (permalink)  
 
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51318691

A plane carrying 83 Britons and 27 foreign nationals who were trapped in Wuhan - the Chinese city at the centre of the coronavirus outbreak - has landed in the UK.
The flight was delayed by around three hours to allow as many UK and EU citizens as possible to get to the airport on time amid a suspension of the city's public transport.
Good to see everyone helping out.

The remaining 27 foreign nationals on the plane - thought to be EU citizens - will continue on to Spain.
You think they would treat them here after all we are still in the EU until tonight.
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Old 31st Jan 2020, 17:13
  #124 (permalink)  
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Spanish airline and the remaining pax, bar one, are preplanned Spanish citizens being taken home.

The sole other pax being, reportedly, Polish. Not sure if he was planned to be treated in the UK or Spain or being picked up by the Polish in one or the other.
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Old 31st Jan 2020, 17:18
  #125 (permalink)  
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https://www.businessinsider.com/airl...s-fears-2020-1

At least 50 airlines have canceled flights to China amid coronavirus fears ó here's the full list

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Old 31st Jan 2020, 18:09
  #126 (permalink)  
 
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Now folks are asking are packages from China safe to handle.

They must be assuming workers are allowed to go out and make shipments!

My shipper advised today that he doesn't know when he can resume making shipments outside China!
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Old 31st Jan 2020, 18:11
  #127 (permalink)  
 
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I never thought about that, I have one in transit, better get the neighbour to sniff it..
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Old 31st Jan 2020, 18:13
  #128 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by OldCessna View Post
Now folks are asking are packages from China safe to handle.

They must be assuming workers are allowed to go out and make shipments!

My shipper advised today that he doesn't know when he can resume making shipments outside China!
It's a reasonable question, and the key factor seems to be the survival time of the virus on a surface. If it's similar to influenza, then this is around a maximum of about 24 hours on a non-porous surface that is reasonably well protected in a room temperature environment. If this virus is similar, then that suggests that any parcel that takes a few days to get here from China may be OK.
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Old 31st Jan 2020, 18:43
  #129 (permalink)  
 
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Seen on TV news today, the ex Wuhan passengers leaving Brize in their coaches for Arrowe Park; all the arrivals wearing their masks, a person in the tour guide's seat wearing a space man outfit and the bus drivers with their regular, stroll down the pub, jumpers!
Meanwhile, despite the government telling us a couple of days ago that the evacuees will be going to vacant NHS accommodation, what they didn't say was "And we shall make the spaces vacant while they are on their way here. Staff were still living in that accommodation up to today and some had notices pushed under their doors today, telling them they had one hour to vacate. (I believe they are being put up in hotels in the area). One person in a position of responsibility at the hospital was heard to say "Wonderful, isn't it? If I ask for a TV for a ward, I will wait for weeks. Today, we have had 200 new TVs etc delivered! And wait until the evacuees wake up tomorrow to see the start of work for the fencing that will be going up around them!
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Old 1st Feb 2020, 00:12
  #130 (permalink)  
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I went into a rather small and very packed pub in SW London this evening and my current hacking cough manifested itself rather noisily - pub cleared within 10 minutes and we suddenly had two adjacent tables available for the eight of us. So there is an up-side...
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Old 1st Feb 2020, 02:19
  #131 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by treadigraph View Post
I went into a rather small and very packed pub in SW London this evening and my current hacking cough manifested itself rather noisily - pub cleared within 10 minutes and we suddenly had two adjacent tables available for the eight of us. So there is an up-side...
Did you buy the first round?
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Old 1st Feb 2020, 05:14
  #132 (permalink)  
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https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-...ronavirus.html

75,000 in Wuhan infected with coronavirus: study estimates

More than 75,000 people—ten times the official tally of confirmed cases—have been infected with the coronavirus in Wuhan, ground zero of a global health emergency, according to research published Friday.

.
"We estimate that 75,815 individuals have been infected in Wuhan as of January 25, 2020," a team led by Gabriel Leung from the University of Hong Kong reported in The Lancet.

As of January 31, the Chinese government said the number of confirmed cases had risen above 9,700 for all of China, including 213 deaths........
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Old 1st Feb 2020, 06:19
  #133 (permalink)  
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Australia issues China travel ban


Speaking at a press conference, Australian prime minister Scott Morrison announced that no-one travelling from mainland China would be allowed into Australia unless they are Australian citizens or residents. Entry will be denied to anyone who has left or transited through mainland China from 1 February.

Australian citizens coming from China will have to be quarantined for two weeks, said Morrison. Half a million masks will also be provided for those coming off flights from China, while thermometers and special screening arrangements will also be set up at airports.....

.......................................

Coronavirus: US bars foreign nationals who have recently travelled to China


The Trump administration has declared a public health emergency over the coronavirus outbreak and announced it will temporarily bar entry to the US for people traveling from China unless they are Americans or immediately related to US citizens.

“This is a serious health situation in China, but I want to emphasize the risk to the American public currently is low,” said the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) director, Robert R Redfield, on Friday. “It is our goal to keep it that way.”.....

Under the measures announced on Friday, Americans returning from Hubei province will be subject to 14 days’ mandatory quarantine in an institutional setting upon their return, in order for health authorities to monitor them for the virus. Americans who have traveled to other parts of mainland China will be subject to home quarantine for 14 days.

The restrictions will apply to any foreign nationals not immediately related to Americans or US permanent residents, and come into effect on Sunday at 5pm ET.........
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Old 1st Feb 2020, 06:23
  #134 (permalink)  
 
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Re TVs etc referred to in post #131: As seen in the Liverpool Echo:
https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news...ilies-17670131
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Old 1st Feb 2020, 06:32
  #135 (permalink)  
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Old 1st Feb 2020, 07:52
  #136 (permalink)  
 
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I'm still more than curious as to how aircraft that have transported ill passengers will be (have been hopefully!) cleaned and disinfected for onward use ??? Even yesterday's media frenzy about the repatriated UK citizens showed the totally unprotected drivers of the coaches, who surely must be at hypothetical risk of infection, assuming that any of the passengers was infected. The two Chinese tourists who have potentially infected another 400 people in the last week and on and on... I think that we have to accept that there will be more cases in the next weeks all over the country and world. As I was walking around central London a few days back it was noticeable how many oriental tourists were wearing masks and gloves.
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Old 1st Feb 2020, 07:58
  #137 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SpringHeeledJack View Post
I'm still more than curious as to how aircraft that have transported ill passengers will be (have been hopefully!) cleaned and disinfected for onward use ??? Even yesterday's media frenzy about the repatriated UK citizens covered the totally unprotected drivers of the coaches, who surely must be at hypothetical risk of infection, assuming that any of the passengers was infected. The two Chinese tourists who have potentially infected another 400 people in the last week and on and on... I think that we have to accept that there will be more cases in the next weeks all over the country and world. As I was walking around central London a few days back it was noticeable how many oriental tourists were wearing masks and gloves.
I had a look around to try and find out how long the virus lives on surfaces and how far it might travel through the air when transmitted by droplets. It seems you have to be pretty close to someone to be at significant risk of infection, closer than about 2m, for maybe 10 minutes or so. The survival time of the virus on hard surfaces is around 24 hours, apparently, significantly less on porous surfaces.

I'd guess that it wouldn't be hard to disinfect the interior of a coach, or aircraft, if the above is true. The bigger problem is probably one of PR, and convincing people that things have been made safe. For that reason it might be wise to leave vehicles unused for a time, which is apparently what the coach company plans to do.
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Old 1st Feb 2020, 08:01
  #138 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post

More than 75,000 peopleóten times the official tally of confirmed casesóhave been infected with the coronavirus in Wuhan, ground zero of a global health emergency, according to research published Friday...
Dont forget a lot of those who would be infected but unreported would be those who donít seek hospital or medical care for their illness as it isnít severe enough, just coughing or respiratory symptoms that are self medicated.

So in reality the mortality rate is a lot lower than suggested as a lot of cases arenít being hospitalised.
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Old 1st Feb 2020, 08:31
  #139 (permalink)  
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Possibly, but equally there seems to be large under reporting of deaths. Reports from Wuhan indicate that anyone who dies who hasn’t been tested for Coronavirus is just being recorded as dying of flu or other causes.
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Old 1st Feb 2020, 08:43
  #140 (permalink)  
 
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The epidemiological statistics that have been published make interesting reading. Using a model of R0 = 2.0 to 2.5 (which means that each infected person infects 2 to 2.5 people) the graph is almost identical with the Wuhan virus progression since 16th January. This is an increase in cases of 53% per day. For example the modelled expectation of infections for 29/01 was 10,555, the expected for 01/02 was 37,728. If you take the lag in reporting the cases as being a couple of days, that seems to tie in with actual cases.

The projection for 08/02 is 737,005, but by then the initial reporting of early cases will be complete, and the R0 figures should decrease, so the actual cases should then start to drop below the 53% line. That is when the statistics guys really get to work in plotting the peak and slope of the graph, and hence the expected date of the decline of the number of reported cases. Epidemics become mathematics at the scale of population that we are dealing with here.


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