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Coronavirus: The Thread

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Coronavirus: The Thread

Old 8th Oct 2020, 09:54
  #10441 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
Quite why so many are more prepared to believe stuff that's distorted, patently untrue, or propaganda spread by those who have a reason for swaying public opinion, is beyond me. Social media is full of Trump-like fake news (some coming from the man directly), in fact that social media really only works because it relies upon tabloid like sensationalist fake crap in order for authors to "be successful" by getting more followers, or having more of their content repeated elsewhere. Anyone posting the truth on social media, particularly when the truth doesn't come across as being very sensational, simply won't be heard, they will be drowned out by all those looking for the next sensational fairy tale.




Similar here. My wife (a retired nurse) had lunch with some former colleagues a couple of months ago. One of them now works in London, and was describing the hell they went through back in April. When my wife spoke to her she was very nervous and concerned about what's going to happen this winter, as the view of her colleagues is that they are going to have a rougher time than they did last spring.

Why do you assume that that the information and figures you are getting from the mainstream news is any more accurate than that on social media? How can you be sure that itís not also been manipulated to suit a political agenda either? Thatís a pretty hubristic stance when not one of us on here has any access to the true figures, because if we did, we wouldnít be endlessly debating Ďwhat ifsí on, ironically a social media forum.

i would suggest that everyone us on here bear in mind a quote from Joseph Goebbels:

ďThink of the Press as a great keyboard on which the government can play.Ē
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Old 8th Oct 2020, 10:55
  #10442 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by wowzz View Post
But in 19 out of 20 cases, when new restrictions were brought in, cases went UP!
That is the worrying thing. It looks very much as though the UK public has some rebellious genes inherited from the French perhaps. Therefore to make local restrictions work the needs to be enforcement, which is not tbe 'British' way.

Dependent on what is actually announced on Monday, to keep a roof over my daughter's family I may have to use my instinct.
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Old 8th Oct 2020, 10:57
  #10443 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SarcenStone View Post
Why do you assume that that the information and figures you are getting from the mainstream news is any more accurate than that on social media? How can you be sure that it’s not also been manipulated to suit a political agenda either? That’s a pretty hubristic stance when not one of us on here has any access to the true figures, because if we did, we wouldn’t be endlessly debating ‘what ifs’ on, ironically a social media forum.

i would suggest that everyone us on here bear in mind a quote from Joseph Goebbels:

“Think of the Press as a great keyboard on which the government can play.”

Because I don't usually take data from the main stream news, but seek out the source data that's been (hopefully) properly reviewed. I know that a handful of others regularly contributing to this thread do the same.

It's clear that all forms of media are distorting facts to some degree. In the case of the mainstream media that varies from only being slight distortion from some outlets, to being fairly gross distortion from others. In the case of social media, then much of it, perhaps the majority of it, is distorted, often to the point of being pure fantasy, as unlike the MSM, social media is essentially unregulated.
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Old 8th Oct 2020, 11:17
  #10444 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
That is the worrying thing. It looks very much as though the UK public has some rebellious genes inherited from the French perhaps. Therefore to make local restrictions work the needs to be enforcement, which is not tbe 'British' way.

Dependent on what is actually announced on Monday, to keep a roof over my daughter's family I may have to use my instinct.
The British public were remarkably obedient during the March lockdown. However, they now see local lockdowns not working in controlling the virus, but causing additional unemployment, long term mental and physical health issues, and basically destroying what we are meant to be trying to maintain.
Boris and Hancock have lost the support of the British public, something that Tory backbenchers are trying to point out, but to no avail. How long before the first riot breaks out at 10:00 PM?
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Old 8th Oct 2020, 11:30
  #10445 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
...
Trump seems to have been a useful experiment, perhaps the only useful thing he's ever done for mankind, in that his case seems to have shown that a cocktail of treatments, given early, can prevent serious disease, even in someone relatively vulnerable.
I think that you are wildly over-interpreting some questionable evidence.

If Trump has recovered without severe complications (perhaps still a few days to wait if the White House timing is right) : Elderly man recovers from covid without severe complications.

But surely that is what the statistics tell us will usually happen without medical intervention, so claiming the recovery is the result of a cocktail of treatments is unjustified.

PS Don't want to downplay the real risks, and I made sure that my feelings on when to pull the plug were known to my relatives during my own mild corvid episode. But that didn't change the fact that the a priori odds were greatly in my favour.
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Old 8th Oct 2020, 11:37
  #10446 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
Therefore to make local restrictions work the needs to be enforcement, which is not tbe 'British' way.
AT, where I live in Wales, we are under restrictions. There are virtually none, other than not leaving the county. In my area, it's the 'only meet where there's a till' version of restrictions. My point- you shut down or you don't. If you don't the numpties and eye-test-dummies will get you!

CG
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Old 8th Oct 2020, 11:47
  #10447 (permalink)  
 
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Compliance with sensible guidance/rules seems very variable, even within a given area. Here we seem to have everyone behaving very sensibly in the village, even the younger people. The shop and pub are generally sticking to the rules, and the village is about to go back to the volunteer system that ran in April through to July, with medications being delivered to everyone in the village (no collections from the local pharmacy except for urgent stuff). Grovery deliveries by volunteers are re-starting next week, too, and I expect they will work as well as they did last time, thanks largely to the cooperation of the village shop, the local farm shop and a super volunteer coordinator that does a great job of keeping everything running smoothly.

However, travel ten miles or so to the nearest city and things are very different. We've both now stopped going to the supermarket, as it was getting to the point where the behaviour of many people, including some of the staff, was just far too risky for our risk appetite. The shops in the city centre seem better, and the bank has a very good system in place, but overall there seems little regard for either social distancing or wearing masks when appropriate. The worst offenders don't seem to be the youngsters, if anything they are the most sensible, it's the middle aged people that seem to now be pretty much ignoring everything.
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Old 8th Oct 2020, 11:53
  #10448 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by wowzz View Post
The British public were remarkably obedient during the March lockdown. However, they now see local lockdowns not working in controlling the virus, but causing additional unemployment, long term mental and physical health issues, and basically destroying what we are meant to be trying to maintain.
Boris and Hancock have lost the support of the British public, something that Tory backbenchers are trying to point out, but to no avail. How long before the first riot breaks out at 10:00 PM?
I think youíve hit the nail on the head. I was one of those obedient members of the public but my eyes have been opened over the last few months. The experts donít really know any more than anyone on how to deal with this. Itís all a guesstimate. The only thing that concerns me is that we are always appear several weeks behind our continental neighbours. We can see that lockdowns donít work there and yet we blindly follow them. Would any of our politicians be brave enough to buck the trend, consult with different experts and follow a different course of action?

Several on here have rejected the suggestion for only shielding the vulnerable as impractical as they will still need to be attended by younger people. Surely, itís better, and easier, to do a more thorough job testing those that are in the direct caring role of these groups than trying to screen a huge, moving population that could be potentially infected within a day of having a negative test anyway? At the moment, we are effectively diluting our resourcing on a very general swathe of the population, most of whom are reasonably fit anyway, rather than on the specific group who interact with the vulnerable.

Iíve also been following this Barrington Declaration as itís being referred to more and more online. To date, there are 123,000 signatures. Looks like itís gathering momentum and will create a few awkward questions for Boris in the near future.
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Old 8th Oct 2020, 12:53
  #10449 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Christopher Robin View Post
COVID-19 accounts for 2.2% of all deaths in England and Wales, according to the ONS.

The ONS seems to have released more data today: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...3-26#fludeaths

Our analysis of deaths in England and Wales has shown that COVID-19 claimed the lives of 48,168 people, while 13,619 people died of pneumonia and 394 died from influenza.


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Old 8th Oct 2020, 13:03
  #10450 (permalink)  
 
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https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...campaign=share

That is indeed a great article and offers another way of examining the issue, i.e the k factor, a measure of the diseaseís dispersion.

This made me think of C-19 using the following analogy. Letís pretend for a moment that each C-19 RNA is also mildly radioactive and both its intensity and dispersion can be measured on a simple instrument e.g. a Geiger counter.

If youíre outdoors, or in a well ventilated area, or in contact with just a few people for short amounts of time, then your chances of absorbing a significant radioactive dose from someone who is infected is vastly reduced. The converse is also true for others if you are the one that is already mildly infected. If someone does absorb a dose of radiation then it will be mild and as long as one's behaviour doesn't alter then their immune system can easily expunge it eventually with probably no symptoms shown. Under these circumstances the virus's intensity remains low and its dispersal is low.

Now if you are in a confined, poorly ventilated area with a crowd of people, then the airborne radioactive particles attached to this virus are being well circulated around the room. If there is only one infected person in the room then the radiation dosage affecting others may be so low that it may not cause any noticeable problems. Under these circumstances the virus's intensity remains low but its dispersal is high.

But if the same above people meet up again under the same circumstances the very next day and most are now just mildly infected, then the radiation dosage will be amplified, repeat a few more times and the dosage received by all will quickly become significant and difficult to expunge, even after isolating, by then it's too late and the virus has got a serious stranglehold on your organs. Under these circumstances the virus's intensity is high and its dispersal is high.

From the above article I picked this quote as my favourite:

ďthe chain of transmission cannot be sustained without a chain of clusters or a megacluster.Ē

The author then cites Japan as the exemplar in tackling the virus by attacking the clusters rather than what the West is doing and attacking the virus one-on-one and destroying its economy in the process.
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Old 8th Oct 2020, 20:36
  #10451 (permalink)  
 
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I recall a resident of Nottingham predicting that this would happen a month or so ago: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan...shire-54460852

Nottingham has the highest Covid-19 infection rate in the UK, according to the latest data.

Public Health England figures show that 689.1 per 100,000 people tested positive for the virus in the city over the past week.
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Old 8th Oct 2020, 21:29
  #10452 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SarcenStone View Post
I think youíve hit the nail on the head. I was one of those obedient members of the public but my eyes have been opened over the last few months. The experts donít really know any more than anyone on how to deal with this. Itís all a guesstimate. The only thing that concerns me is that we are always appear several weeks behind our continental neighbours. We can see that lockdowns donít work there and yet we blindly follow them. Would any of our politicians be brave enough to buck the trend, consult with different experts and follow a different course of action?

Several on here have rejected the suggestion for only shielding the vulnerable as impractical as they will still need to be attended by younger people. Surely, itís better, and easier, to do a more thorough job testing those that are in the direct caring role of these groups than trying to screen a huge, moving population that could be potentially infected within a day of having a negative test anyway? At the moment, we are effectively diluting our resourcing on a very general swathe of the population, most of whom are reasonably fit anyway, rather than on the specific group who interact with the vulnerable.

Iíve also been following this Barrington Declaration as itís being referred to more and more online. To date, there are 123,000 signatures. Looks like itís gathering momentum and will create a few awkward questions for Boris in the near future.
I really think there is too much emphasis on death rates. The big problem to come is what is now known as ďlong COVIDĒ. Which does affect those at a lower age range as well. Study after study are now looking at this and to varying degrees they all show it has negative affects on health. What is not known is how long this may last and whether it may be permanent or will fade over time. I think over time we will find that this will vastly overshadow the death toll in the years to come.
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Old 8th Oct 2020, 22:10
  #10453 (permalink)  
 
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Has anyone thought of asking China how they have successfully managed to suppress Covid to such an extent that life is apparently normal there. They are reporting 200 currently affected, 198 mildly and 2 serious. In a population of 1,400,050,000 it is nothing short of miraculous. Obviously, The West is getting something spectacularly wrong.
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Old 8th Oct 2020, 22:29
  #10454 (permalink)  
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China has apps running on everyoneís smartphones and strenuously controls the movement of anyone considered a risk. Here people wonít download the app for fear of being advised to isolate. Totally different society.
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Old 8th Oct 2020, 22:48
  #10455 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Andrewgr2 View Post
China has apps running on everyoneís smartphones and strenuously controls the movement of anyone considered a risk. Here people wonít download the app for fear of being advised to isolate. Totally different society.

Exactly.

Here we seem to have head teachers instructing teachers to not use the NHS app, because they fear that any positive contacts will mean they have to take measures to protect staff and pupils, and it seems that some do not wish to do this: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-54465356

Two weeks in, the NHS Covid-19 app for England and Wales seems to have got off to a good start, with more than 16 million downloads so far - but a range of employers are actively discouraging their staff from using it.

Earlier this week, both the pharmaceuticals company GlaxoSmithKline and a Hull-based fuel supplier told staff the app should be switched off at work - both said it was unnecessary in their "Covid-secure" workplaces.
And now, there are numerous reports teachers are being told they should not use the app in school.
I have received a message from a teacher in north-west England who wants to remain anonymous.
This person downloaded the app on the day it was released and then, last Monday, tested positive for coronavirus.
As the test had been booked through the app, it then triggered alerts telling three colleagues at the school to go into isolation.
But then, according to the teacher, the secondary school's business manager told the three people involved to ignore the messages and delete the app if they felt they had not been within 2m (6ft) for at least 15 minutes.
One of the teachers ignored that advice, went into isolation and had a test.
But when that proved negative, they returned to work - which is contrary to the government advice to complete your period of isolation even if you have a negative test.
My anonymous contact told me: "Too many schools want to keep staff in, even if it means breaking the law.
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Old 9th Oct 2020, 08:28
  #10456 (permalink)  
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https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/v...irus-t7x30rxcp

Vulnerable face months of having to stay indoors to void second wave of coronavirus

Hundreds of thousands of vulnerable people face being told to stay at home this winter as ministers plan to resume shielding in infection hotspots.

Advice for clinically vulnerable people to avoid others could be included in the top tier of a simplified local lockdown system to be announced next week, as concern mounts about rising infection rates in the north of England......

The decision on shielding has not been finalised and could be delayed over fears for the mental health of people told to spend months at home alone. The shielding scheme in the spring was criticised for causing depression, loneliness and problems around food and healthcare.

Jenny Harries, the deputy chief medical officer for England, has been leading work on a replacement “tailored shielding” scheme that aims to replace blanket rules with more personalised advice depending on individual risks, guided by an algorithm......


At the start of the lockdown 2.2 million people deemed “extremely vulnerable” because of health conditions were advised not to leave home and avoid all contact with others. Studies found that depression and anxiety were twice as common among the shielded as among otherwise similar people, as were worries about obtaining food and essentials. The scheme was paused in August.

“The intention is not to bring back the same programme but to be more targeted in the measures and what you ask people to do,” a Whitehall source said. “It is a big ask to lock people away to cocoon over what could be a long winter.”

Instead they could be urged to take precautions such as avoiding shopping at busy times. Ministers hope to use an algorithm developed by Oxford University to decide who must take the strictest precautions. NHS chiefs believe it needs more testing and it is not expected to be ready before next month.

Charlotte Augst, chief executive of National Voices, the umbrella group for patient charities, urged ministers to lay out the evidence for resuming shielding. She said in the first scheme “far too many people had confusing, contradictory, late and unhelpful information given to them”, harming mental health. Any algorithm had to be published to avoid loss of trust and ministers had to offer financial support to those shielding, she said. “People need practical help with issues like shopping and medicines. They need emotional support.”

GPs were given the task of telling their patients to shield in the spring and have been keeping their lists updated. Martin Marshall, head of the Royal College of GPs, said that widespread shielding should be introduced only if “absolutely necessary”.......
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Old 9th Oct 2020, 08:42
  #10457 (permalink)  
 
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It's the obvious thing to ( try and ) do. Extend the care home model to the world outside.
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Old 9th Oct 2020, 08:48
  #10458 (permalink)  
 
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Vulnerable face months of having to stay indoors to void second wave of coronavirus

Hundreds of thousands of vulnerable people face being told to stay at home this winter as ministers plan to resume shielding in infection hotspots.
In typical UK fashion, is that being "having to" (advice perhaps) or "told to" (compelled)? I appreciate that these are journalists not a statement from government, but clarity is required. And how in a free country how you are supposed to compel a group of people to stay under house arrest for 6 months I simply don't know. People will make their own decisions based on what we call today their "risk assessment", and curiously there'll be a number of people (the worried well) who will self isolate unnecessarily because they are sh1t scared, whilst others, who might be best isolating deciding that their mental well being is worth the risk of not staying indoors for 6 months.
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Old 9th Oct 2020, 10:16
  #10459 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by wowzz View Post
But in 19 out of 20 cases, when new restrictions were brought in, cases went UP!
There is invariably a two week delay for measures to show any effect, due to the life cycle of the virus.

Which some take as evidence of said measures not working.

More of a news cycle vs. virus life cycle problem...
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Old 9th Oct 2020, 10:21
  #10460 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by currawong View Post
There is invariably a two week delay for measures to show any effect, due to the life cycle of the virus.

Which some take as evidence of said measures not working.

More of a news cycle vs. virus life cycle problem...
Granted, but many areas in NW England are now nearly 2 MONTHS in!
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