Go Back  PPRuNe Forums > PPRuNe Social > Jet Blast
Reload this Page >

Coronavirus: The Thread

Jet Blast Topics that don't fit the other forums. Rules of Engagement apply.

Coronavirus: The Thread

Old 23rd Aug 2020, 06:00
  #9221 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Peripatetic
Posts: 11,528
As an interesting spin-off, listening to the BBC Naked Science podcast On R5 this morning the commentator, Chris Smith, is the co-author of the paper mentioned in the article below and noted thatthe presence of the biochemical can be developed into a highly specific test of those who have had Covid which takes about 10 minutes and costs about £15. Development would take about 8-12 weeks.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/sci...d4ee0570fe1001

Coronavirus time bomb ‘could cost billions’

Lung disease may be the tip of the iceberg for COVID-19 sufferers, with new research finding the virus leaves a mixed “biochemical signature” of diabetes, liver dysfunction, acute inflammation and increased cardiovascular risk.

Samples from COVID-19 patients studied in Perth suggest that “recovered” patients emerge with signs of a “Post-COVID Syndrome” affecting multiple organs. It includes people who had mild or minor lung effects. The findings are supported by new data from British samples sent to Perth from COVID *patients at Addenbrookes Hospital in Cambridge.

The Australian National Phenome Centre at Murdoch University is working with the Cambridge team to follow the long-term recovery and health impacts of COVID-19 patients. ANPC has identified that biochemical changes show up in blood plasma, and patients can have signs of diabetes, liver damage or risk of heart disease.

Murdoch University professor and ANPC director Jeremy Nicholson said the centre had identified a “biochemical signature” of being COVID positive that is not directly connected to severity of lung disease. “It turns out there is an incredibly strong signature of COVID-19 positivity, the strongest one I’ve seen in 30-plus years of metabolic research on many diseases,” he said.

“People are concentrating on the front end of this disease, detection and a cure, and on the serious lung problems that occur in some patients. But millions of people will have the virus, many will not know it, and some may have serious long-term effects on their health as a result of *infection.” He predicts that if the long-term effects of COVID-19 are anything like SARS, which affected thousands of people, not millions, “then the long-term healthcare burden could run into the billions of dollars worldwide.”

Professor Nicholson said infected people’s biochemistry showed diabetes, liver dysfunction “and a massive change in the lipoproteins identified as relating to coronary artery disease and cardiovascular risks.”

“Even though only a small proportion of the people we studied had known diabetes, during the course of their COVID-19 encounter most developed clear signs of diabetes. We don’t yet know if it’s the gestational type that reverses or whether it sticks with you.”

He said the multiple adverse effects were linked to microvascular damage that could affect small blood vessels.

Chris Smith, from the Cambridge Institute of Therapeutic Immunology and Infectious Disease, said the study “proves we can detect COVID-19’s legacy and highlights some long-term metabolic impacts of infection”.

Professor Nicholson said the ANPC was working on a diagnostic test that could be applied to the screening of individuals taking part in vaccine clinical trials.

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-...c-disease.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Smith_(doctor)

ORAC is offline  
Old 23rd Aug 2020, 07:36
  #9222 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 1999
Location: UK
Posts: 0
Originally Posted by Slaine View Post
Highly opinionated, I stopped listening after the frst couple of minutes when he asserted a falsehood about the vaccine developers skipping phase 2 testing
You can't even believe the experts these days
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Offit

“Paul Allan Offit (born 27 March 1951) is an American pediatrician specializing in infectious diseases, vaccines, immunology, and virology. He is the co-inventor of a rotavirus vaccine.”

Of course he’s opinionated! It’s the reason he’s being interviewed.
How can you know it’s a falsehood?
If he’s lying then that would not do his reputation any good, and if he’s misinformed it would be equally bizarre and damaging. He’s one of the worlds foremost spokesman when it comes to vaccines.

It’s quite something when people stop listening to a pro-vaccine expert because they don’t like what they’re hearing.

Last edited by Stan Woolley; 23rd Aug 2020 at 08:15.
Stan Woolley is offline  
Old 23rd Aug 2020, 09:00
  #9223 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: West Wiltshire, UK
Age: 68
Posts: 412
There's a curious amount of contradictory information about this disease. To take a simple, recent, example, we have some research (reported above by ORAC ) that indicates that there may be significant, if unknown, long term consequences for those who have been infected with Covid-19, even if they have not suffered from serious illness. On the other hand, we have Prof. Chris Whitty stating clearly that missing school was likely to cause more harm to children than the disease. Given that we don't yet know what, if any, long term health issues might be associated with having had Covid-19, no one, not even Prof Chris Whitty, can say for sure that the possible long term consequences might be no worse than missing school.

There are many more examples of apparent contradictions, some clearly political, some just bad science and some from the usual fringe nutters, but all are highlighting the fact that there is a great deal that we don't understand about this disease. Perhaps worth viewing everything that's published, especially in any of the main stream media, through a filter that adds the high degree of uncertainty that really should be applied to much of what is being reported.

FWIW, my personal view is that if we looked at other common, but not normally seriously life threatening, infectious diseases we might find changes similar to those reported above. Covid-19 is attracting massively more research effort than just about any other infectious disease that has ever affected humankind. As a consequence, it's inevitable that things that will be found that might be measurable, but perhaps not harmful. If the same massive amount of research effort was focussed on something else, like influenza, I wonder what unknown features of that infection might also be discovered? It's a known fact in science that when you go looking at something in great detail you will pretty much always find a lot of things you didn't expect. The key task is to filter out what is relevant and important, focus on that, and just note the less significant findings for later research. I suspect the desire to publish anything and everything, regardless of relevance, is pretty strong right now, though.
VP959 is offline  
Old 23rd Aug 2020, 09:11
  #9224 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Bedford, UK
Age: 67
Posts: 1,280
Just so. In terms of the phase 2 testing, was the expert quoted saying it was a good or bad thing? Personally I wonder if anyone will be heroic enough to decide the vaccine is safe for pregnant women or those on chemo etc.
Mr Optimistic is offline  
Old 23rd Aug 2020, 09:27
  #9225 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: West Wiltshire, UK
Age: 68
Posts: 412
When it comes to vaccines, I think the issue of safety needs to be separated out from the issue of effectiveness. Making sure a vaccine is safe isn't that hard now. The basic building blocks used are pretty well understood, and the risk posed by the small variations needed to make a vaccine specific for this coronavirus is both pretty small to start with, and fairly easy to test pretty quickly. This wasn't the case with some older types of vaccines, where the methods used varied a great deal and so the risk that any new one might have side effects was a great deal higher. Making sure a vaccine is effective is the pretty difficult bit, and hard to prove, given the normal ethical constraints we apply now. Interesting that these might be being relaxed, though. There's some talk of doing direct challenge trials, something that is pretty unusual in this, more cautious day and age. I've mixed views about the wisdom of doing direct challenge trials, but then that may well be because I'm acutely aware of instances where other direct challenge trials have gone horribly wrong in the past.
VP959 is offline  
Old 23rd Aug 2020, 10:08
  #9226 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 1998
Location: Mesopotamos
Posts: 1,529
As we're lead to believe that the C-19 virus is similar to other influenza viruses, what are the chances of C-19 fizzling out before an effective vaccine is produced? My fear is that because most governments have already been observed moving too slow in this area, they may end up mandating compulsory vaccination using something not quite fully tested and claiming it as a political (short term) succes when the C-19 virus is doing what other influenza viruses do and dissipate within their peak season or two.

I would be really concerned about the many desperate new approaches used to create a vaccine for corona viruses that have not undergone proper scrutiny which would be tried on an uniformed public. I witnessed something similar with cancer reserarch whereby sadly for a small percentage of the researchers it was all about themselves and their own glory as they proposed radical treatments that showed complete contempt for the sufferers.
cattletruck is offline  
Old 23rd Aug 2020, 12:00
  #9227 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2020
Location: Borders
Posts: 27
I've been somewhat heartened by a significant trend I've noticed over the past week or so on social media. Up to then, the overwhelming opinion expressed was that we should be locked down for the foreseeable future, bars and restaurants should be forced to close again, it's totally unsafe for kids to go back to school etc. I'm now seeing a marked shift towards people waking up to the fact that this simply isn't a particularly serious disease for the vast majority of people, and that the numbers simply don't justify the unprecedented (in peacetime) state control being enforced. People are realising that the increased number of cases is due to the vastly increased testing capability and that despite rising cases, hospitalisations and deaths are so few as to be statistically insignificant.

I've also been happy to see a drop off in mask wearing in town, and when I was in the pub on Friday night, things were pretty much back to how they were before March. It seems that people have finally had enough; even the media has more or less lost interest.
guy_incognito is offline  
Old 23rd Aug 2020, 12:32
  #9228 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: apogee
Age: 66
Posts: 69
So social media and pub patron opinions weigh more than medical science opinions?
I don't know.
Personal risk assessment is still leaning towards an abundance of caution.
meadowrun is offline  
Old 23rd Aug 2020, 12:39
  #9229 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: West Wiltshire, UK
Age: 68
Posts: 412
It would be exceptionally foolhardy to assume this is usually a mild disease for anyone, given the hard evidence of lasting complications arising from this disease, together with the strong probability that, like seasonal influenza and a few other infectious respiratory diseases, it will be far more virulent come the winter. The lower the level of disease that we have circulating within the population come winter to the lower the impact, not just on health and lives, but also on our economy. The consequences of a significant outbreak of virulent disease during the winter months might well make the impact we've seen from the measures taken so far seem trivial.
VP959 is offline  
Old 23rd Aug 2020, 12:44
  #9230 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: UK
Posts: 2,186
Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
It would be exceptionally foolhardy to assume this is usually a mild disease for anyone, given the hard evidence of lasting complications arising from this disease, together with the strong probability that, like seasonal influenza and a few other infectious respiratory diseases, it will be far more virulent come the winter. The lower the level of disease that we have circulating within the population come winter to the lower the impact, not just on health and lives, but also on our economy. The consequences of a significant outbreak of virulent disease during the winter months might well make the impact we've seen from the measures taken so far seem trivial.
If we're to have an economy worth being referred to as such, and there is a severe winter wave of Covid-19, I fear we'll simply try and carry on, much as Trump has decided to do, sacrificing the vulnerable to ensure the future of the majority. Good business for funeral directors, rather less good for people at the sharp end of the health service, not to mention for the relatives of those who lose their loved ones.

And the more that the "invincibles" and the darn right selfish (one or two of whom lurk here) ignore the advice / guidance / law (delete which not applicable) the worse a winter outbreak is likely to be. Perhaps they are happy to "kill their granny".

ATNotts is offline  
Old 23rd Aug 2020, 12:50
  #9231 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Australia
Posts: 1,082
Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
It would be exceptionally foolhardy to assume this is usually a mild disease for anyone, given the hard evidence of lasting complications arising from this disease, together with the strong probability that, like seasonal influenza and a few other infectious respiratory diseases, it will be far more virulent come the winter. The lower the level of disease that we have circulating within the population come winter to the lower the impact, not just on health and lives, but also on our economy. The consequences of a significant outbreak of virulent disease during the winter months might well make the impact we've seen from the measures taken so far seem trivial.
You might like this. It has science and stuff.

" These findings could suggest that children are less susceptible to infection than adults, but more likely reflect shielding. "

" In a study of 391 cases and 1,286 close contacts in Shenzhen, China, children were as likely to be infected as adults."


https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2020/...ooked-and-risk
currawong is offline  
Old 23rd Aug 2020, 14:03
  #9232 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: East Sussex
Posts: 199
Originally Posted by guy_incognito View Post
I've been somewhat heartened by a significant trend I've noticed over the past week or so on social media. Up to then, the overwhelming opinion expressed was that we should be locked down for the foreseeable future, bars and restaurants should be forced to close again, it's totally unsafe for kids to go back to school etc. I'm now seeing a marked shift towards people waking up to the fact that this simply isn't a particularly serious disease for the vast majority of people, and that the numbers simply don't justify the unprecedented (in peacetime) state control being enforced. People are realising that the increased number of cases is due to the vastly increased testing capability and that despite rising cases, hospitalisations and deaths are so few as to be statistically insignificant.

I've also been happy to see a drop off in mask wearing in town, and when I was in the pub on Friday night, things were pretty much back to how they were before March. It seems that people have finally had enough; even the media has more or less lost interest.
Another 83 Scots Covid cases confirmed overnight with 37 in Tayside cluster area and you can't see a correlation with the behaviour you have described and appear to rejoice in and what is happening where you live?

And it is not just the old and sick that die from this, a further five people were reported to have died after testing positive for coronavirus in UK hospitals, including a 33-year-old with no underlying health conditions.
WB627 is offline  
Old 23rd Aug 2020, 14:12
  #9233 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2020
Location: Borders
Posts: 27
Originally Posted by WB627 View Post
And it is not just the old and sick that die from this, a further five people were reported to have died after testing positive for coronavirus in UK hospitals, including a 33-year-old with no underlying health conditions.
Which is only remotely newsworthy because it's such an incredibly rare occurrence. Far, far more 30-40 year olds are going to die of suicide alone due to the catastrophic effects of this governmental/ media panic than will be killed by the virus. Five people dead in a day from a population of 67million, and we're still surrendering civil liberties hand over fist and allowing the damage to our economy to continue.

Opinion piece that's well worth a read.

Here is the good news: No matter how old you are, you are extremely unlikely to die of Covid-19. Even if a lockdown had not been instituted and no social distancing implemented, and assuming Imperial College’s controversial worst-case scenario estimate of 500,000 deaths, there would have been a 99% likelihood of surviving the pandemic.

This is no bubonic plague. That killed very nearly 30 per cent of the world’s population in the 14th century. Here is some more good news: a lockdown was instituted and social distancing measures are now well entrenched in our behaviour. As a result, the chance of surviving the pandemic is more like 99.9%.

If you are fortunate to be under the age of 45, your chances of dying from the virus are negligible. You are more likely to die from a lightning strike. The Office of National Statistics estimates that only 0.07% of the population in England is currently infected by the virus. That equates to about 35,000 people. So why are large swathes of the populace in a continued state of panic?

Undoubtedly the biggest cause is government messaging. In order to beget adherence to the lockdown, it put the fear of God into people. Reversing that fear is now difficult, to put it mildly. It also promised to defeat the virus; a monumental error.

In the absence of a vaccine, this virus cannot be defeated. Having been slow to react to the onset of the virus, making multiple errors in the management of it and being criticised for an excessive death toll, now, in the pursuit of victory, it is overreacting. If a case in point is required to illustrate this overreaction, it is the mandatory quarantining of travellers entering the UK from Covid-19 “hotspots”, whether or not they possess a negative test result or even two negative results.

The theory is that somewhere between 2% and 29% of tests return a result in error, so the only way to be sure is to quarantine all travellers. Such an approach is consistent with the aim of defeating the virus but it is not rational.

The threat from the virus is now very low, the NHS is in a position to cope with illnesses, and unless the economy gets going properly very soon, the UK’s relatively poor record in handling the virus would be added a record economic disaster.

So why is the government persisting in its current approach? Maybe it sees a hidden benefit in continuing its quixotic fight. The country is already facing a winter of discontent with over 6 million likely to be unemployed by November.

Even with the fairest economic wind this now cannot be avoided. Throw into the mix the government’s failure to get a Brexit deal agreed by 30 June, with no deal still in sight, and you begin to wonder if the virus is not now becoming a rather convenient bogeyman? It would not be the first time a government has used an enemy to unify its people in times of difficulty.

The government must now focus all its energies on getting the economy back on its feet. Yes, let’s be cautious but let’s also have a sense of proportion. Good things will have emerged from this experience and lessons are there to be learned. But life must go on.

Businesses must be allowed to trade. None of us – including the government – should be frightened into submission.
guy_incognito is offline  
Old 23rd Aug 2020, 16:53
  #9234 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: East Sussex
Posts: 199
guy_incognito
Nice bit of selective quoting there to avoid the issue and consequences of the way your mates behave in the pub and around town.

Don't be surprised when Nicola shuts you all down and you have nowhere to behave in such an anti social and irresponsible manner...



And it looks like the English won't be going to Scotland for a holiday either, so that's something else for the Scots to be happy about. Although I think we would be mad to go there anyway with so many ignoring the social distancing rules and refusing to wear facemasks.

WB627 is offline  
Old 23rd Aug 2020, 16:59
  #9235 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Lemonia. Best Greek in the world
Posts: 1,701
Can we put the 2 week isolation thing between England and Scotland, or vice versa?

It would be nice to get that woman off our tele, and I'm sure the Scots wouldn't miss Boris.
Ancient Observer is offline  
Old 23rd Aug 2020, 17:08
  #9236 (permalink)  
I don't own this space under my name. I should have leased it while I still could
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Lincolnshire
Age: 78
Posts: 16,750
Originally Posted by Ancient Observer View Post
Can we put the 2 week isolation thing between England and Scotland, or vice versa?

It would be nice to get that woman off our tele, and I'm sure the Scots wouldn't miss Boris.
Why does the BRITISH Broadcast Service feature the SCOTTISH MINISTER but rarely the Welsh or Irish?
Pontius Navigator is offline  
Old 23rd Aug 2020, 18:35
  #9237 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Manchester, UK
Posts: 1,958
More to the point, when she does appear why is the BBC utterly incapable of asking any difficult questions. Like her apparently point blank lies about when she knew about the Salmond accusations.
ShotOne is offline  
Old 23rd Aug 2020, 19:24
  #9238 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2020
Location: Beds
Posts: 3
The news nobody wants to hear, despite it being expected (The Telegraph, canít post link)

ďNo Covid vaccine before winter of 2021, warns Chief Medical Officer

Chris Whitty says it could take another year before a safe vaccine is developed and ready for widespread distribution.Ē
Seaking74 is offline  
Old 23rd Aug 2020, 20:37
  #9239 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Ilmington, Warwickshire
Posts: 1
I’m sorry, but it makes absolutely no sense whatsoever that you can sit in a bar or restaurant, maskless for maybe up to two hours, and repeatedly open and shut your mouth to put food in that’s been exposed to potentially anything floating in the air and yet, you have to cover your nose and face in a shop, for a possibly less than 15 minute visit.
And whilst you’re sitting in that restaurant or bar, you’re chewing and talking (hopefully not at the same time!) and therefore spewing out pathogens continually because the reason you’re there anyway is to socialise. I’ve been out only a handful of times to public places since lockdown. Not because I’m scared of Covid. It’s because of the inconsistency and craziness of ‘The Rules’

Shop staff don’t seem to be wearing masks and out of the four hostelries I’ve visited, the servers in three of them weren’t wearing visors.

It’s either safe to go out, or it’s not. We all either need masks, or we don’t.
BehindBlueEyes is offline  
Old 23rd Aug 2020, 20:52
  #9240 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2019
Location: Sabotage Central Office
Posts: 0
Originally Posted by Stan Woolley View Post

Of course heís opinionated! Itís the reason heís being interviewed.
How can you know itís a falsehood?
If heís lying then that would not do his reputation any good, and if heís misinformed it would be equally bizarre and damaging. Heís one of the worlds foremost spokesman when it comes to vaccines.

Itís quite something when people stop listening to a pro-vaccine expert because they donít like what theyíre hearing.
Its quite something when people blindly accept something because it fits their arguement and its said by someone with a reputation ...think for yourself and check it out and you will find that phase 2 trials have been conducted and reported on

facts not faith
Slaine is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service - Do Not Sell My Personal Information -

Copyright © 2021 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.