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Coronavirus: The Thread

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Coronavirus: The Thread

Old 21st Aug 2020, 16:27
  #9201 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by guy_incognito View Post
In exactly the same way as the 40,000 deaths with covid are irrelevant . .

FWIW, the Covid-19 attributable death figures were retrospectively corrected and reduced significantly a week or so ago. They now no longer include "death with Covid-19", i.e. those who died and where Covid-19 was either suspected, but not tested for, or those who had tested positive for Covid-19 some time previously, but died from another cause. For those of us trying to keep an accurate data set this was a PITA, as the numbers for every day from the start of the outbreak changed, and had to be corrected. The number of deaths recorded as being caused by Covid-19 dropped significantly because of this correction, and the current UK total (as of this afternoon) is 41,405 deaths.

The current criteria for recording a death as from, or partly from, Covid-19 is that they must have tested positive less than 28 days before death. This isn't a foolproof measure, but it's probably the most practical one that can be used. Some deaths from Covid-19 may not be recorded as such, if someone dies after prolonged illness, for example, but equally some deaths from associated causes, such as pneumonia, may be recorded as being from Covid-19, if they tested positive within the 28 day window. Because there is now a requirement for there to have been a positive test result, this change will mean that someone dying "of old age" but with symptoms of lung failure similar to Covid-19, won't get recorded as a Covid-19 death any more.
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Old 21st Aug 2020, 18:43
  #9202 (permalink)  
I don't own this space under my name. I should have leased it while I still could
 
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Originally Posted by guy_incognito View Post
The state can . . . Enforcing vaccination programmes for adults should never be one of them.
Guy, vaccinations can be ordered by a State. I quote just one source
The cholera vaccine is generally not required or recommended for travel anywhere in the world, with a few exceptions. For some traveling to a specific area within a particular country, local authorities may require that you receive the vaccine.


When international travel was less common we were required to have current Smallpox, Cholera and Yellow Fever certificates. While it would probably never be mandated in UK you cannot assume that a Covid vaccination would never be required.

Would you have envisaged red list countries and mandatory quarantine just 6 months ago? I suggest that when a viable vaccine is available we can expect some countries will give you a choice: vaccinate or quarantine, or vaccinate or refusal.

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Old 21st Aug 2020, 21:15
  #9203 (permalink)  
 
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Careful with vaccination certificates. Due to age & condition I cannot have yellow
fever vaccination, which lasts a lifetime, instead each year I have to buy an exemption
certificate with validity one year.
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Old 22nd Aug 2020, 04:17
  #9204 (permalink)  
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https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-...nse-cells.html

Finding clues to a successful immune response in the T cells of COVID-19 patients

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Old 22nd Aug 2020, 04:21
  #9205 (permalink)  
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https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-...tion-mice.html

Nasal vaccine against COVID-19 prevents infection in mice

Scientists at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis have developed a vaccine that targets the SARS-CoV-2 virus, can be given in one dose via the nose and is effective in preventing infection in mice susceptible to the novel coronavirus. The investigators next plan to test the vaccine in nonhuman primates and humans to see if it is safe and effective in preventing COVID-19 infection......

Unlike other COVID-19 vaccines in development, this one is delivered via the
nose, often the initial site of infection. In the new study, the researchers found that the nasal delivery route created a strong immune response throughout the body, but it was particularly effective in the nose and respiratory tract, preventing the infection from taking hold in the body.....

To develop the
vaccine, the researchers inserted the virus' spike protein, which coronavirususes to invade cells, inside another virus—called an adenovirus—that causes the common cold. But the scientists tweaked the adenovirus, rendering it unable to cause illness. The harmless adenovirus carries the spike protein into the nose, enabling the body to mount an immune defense against the SARS-CoV-2 virus without becoming sick. In another innovation beyond nasal delivery, the new vaccine incorporates two mutations into the spike protein that stabilize it in a specific shape that is most conducive to forming antibodies against it.......
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Old 22nd Aug 2020, 04:28
  #9206 (permalink)  
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https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...-mean-the-same

It’s a mistake to think all positive Covid tests are the same

.....Through the summer 'weak positives' cases (i.e. where only a small amount of the virus was detected) increased, but admissions and deaths continued to fall. It appeared that those who tested positive had fewer viruses in their bodies. In Lombardy, the proportion of weak positives was around 50 per cent of the total cases and the proportion is increasing. Admissions in the region were few and far between and deaths thankfully ever rarer.

Understanding the role of 'weak positives' and the threat posed by them is vital to answering the question of what happens next. Unpublished Italian evidence suggests less than three per cent are infectious. Fourteen other studies of the relationship between infectivity and PCR results point in the same direction. However the impact of announcing a number of new 'positives' continues to arouse public fear.

Imported cases and the role of asymptomatic people partly explain the continued circulation of endemic viruses. Purely announcing new 'positives' tells us very little. A reliable test would inform us of whether a 'positive' case is infectious, with a reasonable degree of certainty......
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Old 22nd Aug 2020, 11:08
  #9207 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
.Why should we not accept that mandating vaccination is something that is good for the population as a whole?
There is so much I disagree with and could comment on in your post, but from past experience I know it is practically pointless to do so. I only feel that I really ought to comment on your final sentence which I quoted.

I think a good reason for not mandating vaccination is because we really donít know that those who do the mandating are trustworthy, even if we do happen to think they are, they may very easily be misguided. I think you are an intelligent person, however I also think your knowledge about vaccines is heavily biased and frankly makes me fearful.

Anyway, back to mandatory vaccinations.

Do I really trust the likes of Johnson, Hancock, Raab and Patel to make mine and my childrenís important health choices? You might say they choose proven scientists. Like Professor Neal Ferguson of Imperial College? That has proven to be a very bad decision imo. One of so many.


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Old 22nd Aug 2020, 11:17
  #9208 (permalink)  
 
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Do I really trust the likes of Johnson, Hancock, Raab and Patel to make mine and my childrenís important health choices? You might say they choose proven scientists. Like Professor Neal Ferguson of Imperial College? That has proven to be a very bad decision imo. One of so many.
Definitely not! However I would trust virologists and people who are experts in their field to make rational decisions based on scientific evidence , and I would also trust that those developing a vaccine would only release it having established as much as they can that it is going to no harm to me, if it fails to stop me catching covid-19, or any other illness that a vaccination is designed to immunise me from, we that's life - nothing ventured, nothing gained.

The problem is that today, far too many people (and I'm not accusing anyone here) are far too ready to trust shared postings on Whatsapp or Twitter that they experts.

Irrelevant deaths

I don't believe that 40,000 deaths are in any way irrelevant, certainly not to those involved, but in pure statistical terms 40,000 of 7bn is an extremely small proportion of the world population. I think that is the point that was being made.
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Old 22nd Aug 2020, 11:25
  #9209 (permalink)  
 
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I'd not trust any politician, of any flavour, in any way. It's deep within their very nature to be dishonest.

As above, though, I'd very definitely trust properly peer-reviewed science. The whole concept behind peer review is to challenge any and every finding, to seek out inconsistencies, errors, bias etc. It's a proven fact that vaccines are extremely safe, and a net benefit to mankind. I know there are nutters on the fringes who just refuse to believe any mainstream finding, almost on principle, but if those fringe nutters were able to even glimpse at the rough and tumble that is peer review, and see just how much scrutiny is applied by well-qualified, independent, experts, they may change their views. Peer reviewers not only don't have a vested interest in a particular finding, they may well be people working within teams that are competing with the those who have published their work for review.

Perhaps if politicians had to work within the pretty harsh regime of peer review, where everything that's published has to be independently verified, they might, eventually, become trustworthy.
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Old 22nd Aug 2020, 12:23
  #9210 (permalink)  
 
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Interesting point about ‘weak’ virus.

As I reported on here, Mrs BBE had very strange toe symptoms in late Spring. Nothing else, just two toes on each foot swollen, red and itchy. Similar to chilblains - except the weather was warm during lockdown and as she rarely wears footwear when she’s at home, it was unlikely to be shoes. They caused her enough discomfort that for several days, even the weight of duvet was uncomfortable. The pain subsided but the redness remained for 5-6 weeks and eventually the skin cracked and peeled like sunburn.

We both subscribe to the Kings College Zoe Symptom Tracker app. Mrs BBE reported her symptoms and we were both referred for a voluntary Covid test. The results came back as unclear. Consequently, she was invited for a follow up, again, unclear.

Either both times she had a dodgy batch or there was something there that wasn’t virulent enough to give a positive. As she had no other symptoms at all, she didn’t pursue it but I’d be very curious to know whether she now has T Cells.
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Old 22nd Aug 2020, 12:44
  #9211 (permalink)  
 
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I wish that ferkin journos would either print nothing, or carefully research whatever it is they are about to print. Even 2 minutes on Google would help.

Even the "better" journos in the Beeb and The Times are just going for the "headline". For instance, Slough has gone from days of 0, 1 or 2 infections to days of 3, 4 and one day last week, 12 ionfections. So the moving average looks "bad". But since the 12, the daily numbers have been back to 1,2,3 or 1 day at 4.

So the journos report it as a town of "some concern".

Hastings is a town of great concern - to me - but it has been at 0, 1 or 2 since June 3rd.

The Mirror has Ashford as a town of concern - with 0,1 or 2 cases per day?

Just a few clicks....................

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Old 22nd Aug 2020, 13:05
  #9212 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
Definitely not! However I would trust virologists and people who are experts in their field to make rational decisions based on scientific evidence , and I would also trust that those developing a vaccine would only release it having established as much as they can that it is going to no harm to me, if it fails to stop me catching covid-19, or any other illness that a vaccination is designed to immunise me from, we that's life - nothing ventured, nothing gained.
.
Was not Professor Ferguson an expert? It depends on who chooses the particular expert!

I suggest that you watch this video. It features Dr Paul Offit, a long time vaccine maker and a strong advocate. It may make you less enthusiastic about rushing out and getting a Covid vaccine.


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Old 22nd Aug 2020, 13:30
  #9213 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Stan Woolley View Post
Was not Professor Ferguson an expert? It depends on who chooses the particular expert!

I suggest that you watch this video. It features Dr Paul Offit, a long time vaccine maker and a strong advocate. It may make you less enthusiastic about rushing out and getting a Covid vaccine.
Highly opinionated, I stopped listening after the frst couple of minutes when he asserted a falsehood about the vaccine developers skipping phase 2 testing
You can't even believe the experts these days

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Old 22nd Aug 2020, 14:03
  #9214 (permalink)  
 
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Comparative study on mask effectiveness.
https://japantoday.com/category/feat...-droplet-study

Quote:

WASHINGTONHealth experts have determined that face coverings are a vital tool in reducing the spread of coronavirus -- but little research has been done into how different kinds of masks compare.

A new study has ranked 14 types of commonly available mask, finding that medical masks offer significantly more protection against droplet spread than cotton alternatives -- while bandanas and balaclavas don't do much at all.
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Old 22nd Aug 2020, 14:08
  #9215 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Stan Woolley View Post
Was not Professor Ferguson an expert? It depends on who chooses the particular expert!
The golden rule is never, ever, put any trust in only one person. In this instance, Prof Ferguson has been unfairly (IMHO) been singled out for the fairly poor work done by a team that he led. Their work was never properly reviewed before it was used in anger, and when reviewed afterwards it was found to be full of potential issues. Having said that, I'm not convinced that this had any significant impact on the actions the government took, as they delayed acting anyway, which most probably gave us a poorer outcome. However, it's very easy to be wise after the event, and impossible for us to go back to those early days in February and March this year, when this threat was clearly emerging into the West.

The whole principle of peer review, and the reason it has become the best method we know to try to ensure that work can be trusted, is because it almost always discovers serious errors in someone's, or a team's, work, before that work can be relied upon as being valid. Peer review, as a process, is inherently adversarial, with every aspect of a paper being submitted for publication being examined in fine detail, by independent experts who will be looking for any error or weakness, both in the approaches taken, the methods used and in the findings.

If I had to pick a single issue I have with the process it would be that it can encourage some researchers to narrow the scope of any paper for publication, simply because that tends to reduce the chance that it will get rejected by one of the major journals. I suppose another criticism would be the pressure that is applied to some to publish as much as possible, as, particularly within academic circles, people are often judged by the volume of papers they have had published in the big-name journals. I've never been convinced that this was either appropriate, or a valid measure of someone's worth, but then I always worked at the dirty end of applied science, more akin to engineering much of the time.
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Old 22nd Aug 2020, 15:23
  #9216 (permalink)  
 
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The whole principle of peer review,
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1420798/

Richard Smith was editor of the BMJ and chief executive of the BMJ Publishing Group for 13 years. In his last year at the journal he retreated to a 15th century palazzo in Venice to write a book. The book will be published by RSM Press [www.rsmpress.co.uk], and this is the second in a series of extracts that will be published in the JRSM.



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Old 22nd Aug 2020, 15:52
  #9217 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Stan Woolley View Post
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1420798/

Richard Smith was editor of the BMJ and chief executive of the BMJ Publishing Group for 13 years. In his last year at the journal he retreated to a 15th century palazzo in Venice to write a book. The book will be published by RSM Press [[url=http://www.rsmpress.co.uk/]www.rsmpress.co.uk], and this is the second in a series of extracts that will be published in the JRSM.

What did I post earlier about never, ever, trusting one person?

The key point is that if something is reviewed by several, independent, subject matter experts, there will be more confidence in the scrutiny process being thorough, and without bias. Just having a single person reviewing important work adds little value, it really needs to be both subject to review by several people, and the work replicated by other researchers to show that that the findings are repeatable.

Sadly, medicine is often a discipline where scientific rigour is not great. A look at some of the work done by Cochrane volunteer reviewers will show just how poor some studies in medicine are. The reasons for this vary, but are often associated with the way medical studies are funded, IMHO. The ability of the big pharmaceutical companies to distort the presentation of their own research is pretty well understood, and because of the legal issues surrounding the protection of their IPR there are limits on the degree of truly independent review can be carried out (often there is no effective review, believe it or not).

The urgency and the degree of public funding into Covid-19 research, together with the concerns already expressed about allowing any one company, or nation, to have a monopoly on any significant treatment or vaccine, means that any such treatment or vaccine for this disease is going to be subjected to a far greater degree of rigorous review than something developed within the secret world of the big pharmaceutical companies normally would. There's a far greater degree of international cooperation going on at the academic level, too, and that pretty much automatically means there will be a much better review process. It's damned hard to bias findings, or cover up adverse events, when there are hundreds of different people, from around the world, involved in a project.
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Old 22nd Aug 2020, 15:59
  #9218 (permalink)  
 
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As very much an applied scientist, I really like this experiment being conducted in Germany: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53875370

Not withstanding the imperfect methodology, and the inherent bias that I suspect there will be from the way the study has been devised, it may provide some real-world data that helps better understand the transmission risk.
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Old 22nd Aug 2020, 16:45
  #9219 (permalink)  
 
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Im quite certain similar studies are all ready underway here in the UK and on a much larger scale, the only difference is over here they are not being honest about it
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Old 23rd Aug 2020, 00:17
  #9220 (permalink)  
 
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My daughter sent me an Apple link to the same news, VP and I was preparing to post the link here.
She knew I would be interested, even as we worry about her on holiday on Spain last week and Italy this.
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