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Coronavirus: The Thread

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Coronavirus: The Thread

Old 14th Aug 2020, 12:43
  #9041 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
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Nice to see essential services like tattoo parlours, nail salons, hair dressers and the like are fast tracked for re-opening.
They been open for weeks for most treatments such as hair, manicures etc, provided the employee wears a mask and visor.

The only change as of Monda6 is that they can offer close contact facial treatments, eyebrow threading etc.

The distraction was always a bit bizarre - my hairdresser did my eyebrows when he did my hair anyway.
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Old 14th Aug 2020, 12:51
  #9042 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Mr Optimistic View Post
The economy needs to reopen. They all pay taxes and employ people. `Essential` is a redundant consideration. It's not a gerontocracy (yet).


I sometimes think some people donít realise how the NHS and community care et al are funded. There isnít a bottomless pit or magic money tree. Unless the younger population are working and contributing, the whole system will very soon collapse. The same with pension funds too.
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Old 14th Aug 2020, 13:14
  #9043 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Mr Optimistic View Post
Based purely on your age that seems pessimistic. With no underlying health issues would reckon chance of death more like 2%. Factoring in significant sequelae, maybe 6% odds of a bad outcome?
So of 100 people like us 94 relish retelling the tale, the rest not so lucky. Odds of nearly 16:1. I'll take all reasonable measures but otherwise take my chances.
I too do not understand where the 10% to 15% mortality factor comes from, unless there are very serious underlying health issues.
As a senior citizen, in body if not in spirit, I certainly have a vested interest in avoiding contracting CV19, but believe I can take sufficient preventative actions to mitigate my own risk, without the need to shut down the entire economy. I am more worried about dying due to the increased waiting lists for cancer treatments, heart surgery etc, caused by CV19 taking precedence over all other conditions, than dying from the virus itself.
Re-open the entire economy now, and those who feel they are at risk, can take their own precautions.
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Old 14th Aug 2020, 16:39
  #9044 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by wowzz View Post
I too do not understand where the 10% to 15% mortality factor comes from, unless there are very serious underlying health issues.
As a senior citizen, in body if not in spirit, I certainly have a vested interest in avoiding contracting CV19, but believe I can take sufficient preventative actions to mitigate my own risk, without the need to shut down the entire economy. I am more worried about dying due to the increased waiting lists for cancer treatments, heart surgery etc, caused by CV19 taking precedence over all other conditions, than dying from the virus itself.
Re-open the entire economy now, and those who feel they are at risk, can take their own precautions.
I felt similarly until a received a letter from Hancock's Half Hour in which he stated Throughout this crisis, we have protected our NHS, ensuring that everybody who needed care was able to get that care. At no point was the NHS overwhelmed, and everyone who needed care had access to that care.
With this level of assurance, I'm no longer worried for, clearly, all is in hand.

Nevertheless, I have had to spend a large sum of money on hearing aids which otherwise might have been supplied by the NHS and the earliest I might expect an appointment to deal with cataracts is November 2021. Of course, I could have the eyesight taken care of privately too; it's a toss-up between dying (clutching a white stick) before the NHS fulfils its contractual obligations or living in paupery.

It's great being an old fart.
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Old 14th Aug 2020, 18:28
  #9045 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Slaine View Post
Guy, no need to go on you have made it clear that you are perfectly ok with your actions leading to a greater risk of death to others.
There really is no need to explain further
I won’t be going out of my way to put people at risk, but when it comes down to it, I absolutely don’t care. Society doesn’t and shouldn’t care about individuals.

In this case, getting the economy moving and preventing untold future deaths in the long term is far more important than prolonging a few lives in the short term. For the avoidance of doubt: the worst case scenario suggested approximately 500k deaths. That was based on a mortality rate of around 1%. the rate will turn out to be nowhere near that. Notwithstanding those facts, even 500k deaths could and should have been considered acceptable by the government.

Last edited by guy_incognito; 14th Aug 2020 at 18:41.
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Old 14th Aug 2020, 18:42
  #9046 (permalink)  
 
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I’m actually getting pretty concerned about the government appearing to be driven and led by the media over Covid. Especially when the media doesn’t always reflect general public opinion. I would go as far as to say it’s almost dictating how we should be behaving and reacting too.

I try to be selective over my sources of information but there is so much hype and hysteria out there, it proves very difficult sometimes.
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Old 14th Aug 2020, 20:50
  #9047 (permalink)  
 
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Yes. There is a sometimes indistinct line between 'News' and 'News Show' now.
I always go for the chief medical type's opinions first.
Everything should drive from their science > protect, medical care > then school when safe > work when safe. I guess 'safe' is always going to be a variable.
I tend to filter out the talking heads from studio or living room or garage (in this day and age, it's surprising how bad some of the hook-ups are technologically and the improvements that are needed in remote education)
and I will watch about 15 seconds a day of Drone-on Donald for some laughs.
Not har - har laughs. Kind of sad laughs with little shakes of the head.
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Old 14th Aug 2020, 22:46
  #9048 (permalink)  
 
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I hear Office for National Statistics (ONS) is paying people £200 to take part in a testing survey if you have the virus or not.
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Old 15th Aug 2020, 02:38
  #9049 (permalink)  
 
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NZ locking down Auckland for two weeks because of a handful of cases
To be accurate, Auckland is at Alert Level 3 Restrictions, not "Lockdown" -

details here: https://covid19.govt.nz/covid-19/ale...alert-level-3/ - for a total of two weeks at this stage;

and there are currently 56 known cases - details here:

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/...-current-cases
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Old 15th Aug 2020, 09:42
  #9050 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by N707ZS View Post
I hear Office for National Statistics (ONS) is paying people £200 to take part in a testing survey if you have the virus or not.
I know two people who were asked by post to take tests for a survey. Both agreed, and received negative results. No payment involved.
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Old 15th Aug 2020, 11:07
  #9051 (permalink)  
 
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I keep reading about increases of those testing positive for Covid (stands to reason if the number of tests have increased), but what I can't seem to find is how many of those "positives" are actually ill, or ever become ill?
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Old 15th Aug 2020, 12:15
  #9052 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by meadowrun View Post
The onus should/would be on the Frenchman to prove what he claims to HM Customs..
And the proof being plausible, how woukd Border Force disprove it?
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Old 15th Aug 2020, 12:23
  #9053 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by N707ZS View Post
I hear Office for National Statistics (ONS) is paying people £200 to take part in a testing survey if you have the virus or not.
First off, does it matter if the ONS is incentivising people to take part in social research to establish the true extent of infections in the wider community, something that can only be achieved by random sampling.

It is perhaps not well understood that the ONS study is what is called a longitudinal survey, meaning that they are signing up not just for one test, but multiple tests over an extended period, so they are going to be asked to do the test, which also encompasses collecting associate data that give the government a much better picture of work, and personal behaviour and assists them in making policy decisions on handling lockdowns, reopening etc etc. Making a payment that might encourage respondents to continue taking part doesn't appear to be particularly contentious.

The results derived from this study are published regularly; the most high profile being the weekly assessment of the number of people currently infected.

Sallyann

I know two people who were asked by post to take tests for a survey. Both agreed, and received negative results. No payment involved.
There are various studies being carried out by academic institutions, this one I believe is being carried out by Ipsos Mori, I can't recall which seat of learning they are working on behalf of, but my brother-in-law received the test kit, did the test and then waited in all day for the promised courier to turn up to collect it. Nobody did, and the sample was wasted.
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Old 15th Aug 2020, 12:58
  #9054 (permalink)  
 
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Ipsos is being used by Imperial College, London.
SWMBO did the test, unpaid.
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Old 15th Aug 2020, 13:11
  #9055 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Ancient Observer View Post
Ipsos is being used by Imperial College, London.
SWMBO did the test, unpaid.
Got the Imperial letter yesterday. Not sure there is much point as I have been in self imposed exile since 23rd March and I am not sure I fancy sicking a sharp stick up my nose , even if I was offered £200 .
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Old 15th Aug 2020, 13:23
  #9056 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Mr Optimistic View Post
Based purely on your age that seems pessimistic. With no underlying health issues would reckon chance of death more like 2%. Factoring in significant sequelae, maybe 6% odds of a bad outcome?
So of 100 people like us 94 relish retelling the tale, the rest not so lucky. Odds of nearly 16:1. I'll take all reasonable measures but otherwise take my chances.
You're right, I was looking at the wrong column of data. For me, the mortality risk seems to be lower, somewhere between 5% and 8%, depending on which study you look at, and, perhaps more importantly, when it was conducted.

Originally Posted by Pistonprop View Post
I keep reading about increases of those testing positive for Covid (stands to reason if the number of tests have increased), but what I can't seem to find is how many of those "positives" are actually ill, or ever become ill?
Hard to find accurate data, particularly as the official data seems to be changing (often retrospectively) a fair bit. There are some trends that we can sort of deduce from what's been going on over the past six months, though. First off, it seems clear that the increased rate of testing that was introduced about 2 months or so ago has made a significant difference to the number of new cases being discovered. However, even allowing for that it seems clear that there has been an underlying upward trend in new cases per day for several weeks now.

What's also clear is that the number of people dying each day is not noticeably increasing. Looking at the deaths per day (upper plot) and the new cases per day (lower plot) data does indicate roughly what may be happening (the red lines are a 7 day rolling average):


The data suggest that the death rate, and I think we can assume that this correlates fairly well with the serious illness rate, is not following the same trend as the number of new cases rate. This suggests to me that the disease has been getting significantly less virulent over the past couple of months or so.

The reasons for this are probably complex, but my gut feeling is that it may be following the same pattern as some other respiratory viral illnesses, like influenza. If so, then what might start to happen as we head into winter, is that we see an increase in the severity of symptoms, and probably the mortality rate. This is pretty much just speculation, based on some admittedly iffy data, but if I had to postulate a theory, in the hope that it might encourage some research to prove or disprove it, I think that answering the question as to whether or not Covid-19 has a seasonal virulence similar to influenza would be a good start. If this is shown to be the case, then the follow on question has to be why either the virus, or, more probably IMHO, our immune systems, have this apparent seasonal impact on the severity of some diseases.


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Old 15th Aug 2020, 13:23
  #9057 (permalink)  
 
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And the proof being plausible, how woukd Border Force disprove it?
Some of them are really clever and can use the telephone. They will talk to relatives, employer, landlord. look at documents on the person, in their luggage etc....
until they are satisfied.
Unless it's a bad morning and tea break is due, Chelsea lost and the supervisor is an ass.
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Old 15th Aug 2020, 13:40
  #9058 (permalink)  
 
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Death figures, whatever their cause, are inescapable and hard evidence.

Test result figures, whatever they are, only show those that have actually been tested. Consequently, and logically, the more you test, the more you find.

My strong suspicion right from the start, is that quite possibly, Covid has already passed through millions of us without the vast majority even being aware - especially with the oft quoted 80% asymptomatic figure. After all, unless someone is being treated for something else, no physically fit person would bother to get tested.

If that is indeed the case, the death/recovery figure ratio is completely skewed and may mean that the media and our leaders are destroying worldwide economies for a virus that quite likely has a 95%+ recovery rate.

Time that our politicians grew a pair and stood up to the media.
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Old 15th Aug 2020, 13:58
  #9059 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by BehindBlueEyes View Post
Death figures, whatever their cause, are inescapable and hard evidence.

Test result figures, whatever they are, only show those that have actually been tested. Consequently, and logically, the more you test, the more you find.

My strong suspicion right from the start, is that quite possibly, Covid has already passed through millions of us without the vast majority even being aware - especially with the oft quoted 80% asymptomatic figure. After all, unless someone is being treated for something else, no physically fit person would bother to get tested.

If that is indeed the case, the death/recovery figure ratio is completely skewed and may mean that the media and our leaders are destroying worldwide economies for a virus that quite likely has a 95%+ recovery rate.

Time that our politicians grew a pair and stood up to the media.
Really hard to draw that firm a conclusion from what seems to be happening globally, though. Also worth remembering that we know massively more about this disease now than we knew back in March, when everyone around the world (in the main) was assuming the worst and taking decisions to try and reduce the transmission risk. We still know much less than we need to in order to understand just how bad, or otherwise, this disease is going to be in the longer term.

A 95% recovery rate is pretty grim. For the UK, that means it will kill around 3.4 million people. In reality, I suspect the recovery rate will be massively better than 95%, probably better than 99.5%. Even that means killing 340,000 people, about 8 times more than it's killed already (using the modified death data).

My personal view is that we got lucky. We were able to quickly find ways to treat the disease, making the outcome less serious than feared earlier this year. The control measures we put in place, although draconian, helped a great deal to reduce transmission. Most importantly, the pandemic struck towards the end of the winter in the northern hemisphere, something I'm convinced matters quite a lot, in terms of the severity of the disease. We're now seeing many more cases of mild or asymptomatic disease, which is certainly partly because of more focussed testing, but it's probably also an indication that it's summer, and I suspect that this, like many viral respiratory diseases, may be far less virulent in summer.
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Old 15th Aug 2020, 14:26
  #9060 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by WB627 View Post
Herd Immunity from an informed source....

"If you need 70% of the population to be infected for herd immunity (ballpark estimate for this virus), which is 46.665million people. Approx 10% of these would be unwell enough to require hospitalisation - 4.665million people in hospital. Approximately 0.5 to 1% of those infected will die, which is between 233,275 and 466,550. But that is before you take into account extra deaths from hospitals being overwhelmed."

VP - looks like you are about in the middle of the ballpark with your numbers.
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