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Coronavirus: The Thread

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Coronavirus: The Thread

Old 12th Aug 2020, 07:19
  #9001 (permalink)  
 
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That fits perfectly with flu having been depressed by the actions taken to control Covid-19, together with what I suspect is a strong seasonal pattern to the severity of Covid-19, perhaps a bit like that seen in flu. The lockdown and other control measures will have been very effective against flu, and pretty much every other infectious disease, so we should see a drop in excess deaths, now that Covid-19 doesn't seem to be killing as many people, or making as many people seriously ill.

I very strongly suspect we're going to see a resurgence of severe Covid-19 cases around December/January, unless measures can be put in place to help limit it.
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Old 12th Aug 2020, 09:01
  #9002 (permalink)  
 
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I has ISO 10993 mask fitted in hospital, and then taped at
the top to my nose and face. Objective - to stop 'germs'
escaping upwards into my eyes. Obviously whatever escapes
must either get caught in the mask, or go downward.
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Old 12th Aug 2020, 11:29
  #9003 (permalink)  
 
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I recently changed my view on wearing a face mask.

First everyone thought wearing a face mask should be done for reasons of self protection.
Now most people are coming around to the idea that wearing a mask helps protect those around you from you.
My current view, in an environment were wearing face masks outside is now mandatory, is that wearing a face mask is just another step in heightened personal hygiene, along with other recent measures such as sanitising your hands and not touching your face excessivley, all of which are trivially easy to do regardless if the science is right or wrong and regardless if the government wants to take away my liberties or not.

I now see the task of wearing a face mask as simple as wearing deoderant, brushing your teeth, washing your clothes, etc - you just do it and it's no big deal.

Perhaps those seriously opposing the wearing of a face mask had never practiced good hygiene, or even worse, never knew what good hygiene actually was in the first place. The small number of people I see on the street acting in defiance of the face mask wearing orders seem to confirm this - they really do appear to be quite ignorant of their own existential selves.

When I mentioned this to a colleague, one of her conspiracy theory friends chimed in with "Oh, is hightened personal hygiene now the new narrative?". I told her "I don't know but it does provide a barrier for those that only talk sh!t".


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Old 12th Aug 2020, 14:49
  #9004 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by cattletruck View Post
I recently changed my view on wearing a face mask.
That is your prerogative. But then to accuse those who continue to hold a view that you yourself held until "recently" of...

...talking sh!t
smacks of something else entirely.

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Old 12th Aug 2020, 17:25
  #9005 (permalink)  
 
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Another adjustment downwards of the UK death data, but this time they've reduced the total by a bit over 5,377, so the total to date has now dropped back to 41,329 (just before this correction the total was 46,706).
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Old 12th Aug 2020, 20:58
  #9006 (permalink)  
 
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I've just looked at the figures on the BBC and the GOV.UK dash panel and I can't figure out what is going on from the data but, I guess that is exactly what they want
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Old 12th Aug 2020, 21:17
  #9007 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by WB627 View Post
I've just looked at the figures on the BBC and the GOV.UK dash panel and I can't figure out what is going on from the data but, I guess that is exactly what they want
The government are an absolute shambles when it comes to presenting data. Whether it's wilful or just complete incompetence I'm not sure. The modified deaths data can be found here: https://assets.publishing.service.go...ime_series.csv but be aware that these data are not that clearly presented, and there still seems to be the possibility that the data in the 5th column (which appears to be the newly adjusted numbers) may not be accurate.
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Old 13th Aug 2020, 02:24
  #9008 (permalink)  
 
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We'll be keeping the border closed for a while longer.


source: John Hopkins University
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Old 13th Aug 2020, 07:06
  #9009 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
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https://www.politico.eu/article/mask...avirus-summer/

Mask rebels, no tourists and a heatwave: Paris’ coronavirus summer
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Old 13th Aug 2020, 09:53
  #9010 (permalink)  
 
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Copied and pasted from The Spectator as it’s behind a paywall, but certainly gives food for thought. Can’t say I disagree with the sentiments:

Never has a virus been so oversold.There’s nothing unprecedented about Covid-19 itself. The equally novel, equally infectious Asian flu of 1957 had commensurate fatalities in Britain: scaled up for today’s population, the equivalent of 42,000, while the UK’s (statistically flawed) Covid death total now stands at 46,000. Globally, the Asian flu was vastly more lethal, causing between two and four million deaths. The Hong Kong flu of 1968-69 also slew up to four million people worldwide, including 80,000 Britons. Yet in both instances, life went on.

What is unprecedented: never has a virus been so oversold. Why, I’d like to sign on with Covid’s agent. What a publicity budget.

In a recent Kekst CNC poll, British respondents estimated that nearly 7 per cent of the UK population has died from the coronavirus. That would be 4.5 million people. Scots supposed that more than 10 per cent of the UK population has died. That would be seven million people. Astonishingly, Americans believed that Covid has killed 9 per cent of their compatriots, or almost 30 million people! The real US total has indeed crossed the milestone of 150,000, but for pity’s sake, ‘only’ 20 million people died in the first world war.

True, your average everyman and woman are not dab hands at statistics. Nevertheless, broadcast news has bludgeoned audiences daily with Covid death totals. And a citizenry ought to have some vague notion of their country’s population. So folks convinced that in five meagre months they’ve lost a tenth of their fellows — the literal meaning of the word ‘decimate’ — need only drop a digit to realise how absurdly their bloated estimate compares with familiar figures on the news. But then, the public is never good with zeroes — a failing which treasuries in deficit count on.

Our very own Matthew Parris (many of whose columns I admire) is not immune to Covid Hyperbole Syndrome. His last column alludes to this virus ‘killing millions worldwide’, a phrase that sailed unmolested past pernickety editors and fact-checkers at this magazine. But the true worldwide death toll at the time was about 650,000.

I’d argue for improved British education in maths, except it seems Britain doesn’t do education any more. So let’s instead take those exaggerated impressions of lethality as proof of a stupendously successful propaganda campaign. The government has destroyed the country, and needs to keep ramping up the hysteria the better to keep destroying it. Boris Johnson gets a lot of stick, so it’s time to give the boy credit for once. At destroying the country he’s doing a damned fine job.

During events that in the present loom distortingly large, I’m always dubious of assertions that ‘nothing will ever be the same again’. Yet I worry that Covid-19 may have issued in a new intolerance for the nature of biology that could prove long-lasting.



When I was a kid, there was no MMR vaccine, and children were expected to get measles, mumps, chickenpox and rubella as a matter of course. I obligingly contracted these diseases, which were unpleasant and — I now realise — far more dangerous than my parents’ blitheness would suggest.

Naturally, I’ve also contracted flu and colds throughout my life, and I’ve been resigned to the fact that these disagreeable ailments were due to contact with other people. Abstractly, I’ve known that other people could also infect me with more deadly pathogens: whooping cough, meningitis and TB to name but a few. Yet hitherto it’s never occurred to me that I should therefore wrap myself in cling film, tie a sanitary towel across my face and lock myself in a cupboard.

The more relentless these micro-managing policies of ‘social distancing’ (an expression I’ve come to loathe), mandatory masks, continued closures and capriciously restored regional lockdowns apparently on the basis of a miserable uptick of 14 extra cases, the more we relocate what had lurked far at the back of our minds to the front: other people are sources of contagion. We used to live with that fact. But this on-going risk of mixing with other human beings we’re now, apparently, to find intolerable.

I’m currently in New York, where the medical paranoia is sustained, and social life is nearly nonexistent. This week, a rarity, a couple came inside our house. They didn’t sit down, didn’t stay long, and were careful not to touch anything. When they left they were clearly relieved, and immediately doused themselves in hand sanitiser. I don’t think it’s going to be any different next summer. Google, for example, has already advised its employees to work from home for the next 12 months.

The graph of new cases in the UK roughly levelled off throughout July — but it has not plateaued at zero. The PM gives every indication that only zero will do. Thus as long as the coronavirus persists, the fearful prophylactic measures will continue. In trade for this valiant vigilance on our behalf, we merely have to sacrifice: our friends. Any new friends. All live performance — music, plays. Restaurants. All occasions, like proper weddings, funerals, birthdays and extended--family celebrations. Travel. Colleagues. Any search for love. Any moving communal experience, like festivals. Dentistry. A functional National Health Service. Oh, and the economy — and in case you need translation, that means the country, full stop.

Boris’s ‘nuclear option’ of another total national lockdown remains on the table. Why on earth? The one constructive conclusion to draw from this debacle is that long, indiscriminate national lockdowns to suppress infectious disease are a catastrophe. Yet the most horrifying consequence of Covid-19 could be that lockdown — which once applied only to prisons — becomes officialdom’s established kneejerk response to any new contagion.

There will be a new contagion, too, and a new one after that. How many times can you send the national debt soaring, devastate small business, paralyse government services — including health care — and cancel for months on end the civil liberties of an erstwhile ‘free people’? In preference to this repeated carpet-bombing, a literal nuclear option might at least get the agony over with fast.

Lionel Shriver.



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Old 13th Aug 2020, 10:25
  #9011 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by meadowrun View Post
We'll be keeping the border closed for a while longer.


source: John Hopkins University
I guess we all know where you will be shouting Yanks go home...

From the BBC - Americans, go home: Tension at Canada-US border - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53742684

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Old 13th Aug 2020, 11:16
  #9012 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by BehindBlueEyes View Post
...
Never has a virus been so oversold.There’s nothing unprecedented about Covid-19 itself. The equally novel, equally infectious Asian flu of 1957 had commensurate fatalities in Britain: scaled up for today’s population, the equivalent of 42,000, while the UK’s (statistically flawed) Covid death total now stands at 46,000. Globally, the Asian flu was vastly more lethal, causing between two and four million deaths. The Hong Kong flu of 1968-69 also slew up to four million people worldwide, including 80,000 Britons. Yet in both instances, life went on.
...
Or alternatively, death counts are already on the same scale as the last two major flu epidemics even with:
- containment measures totally unprecedented in modern times
- the first wave still incomplete
- no signs of the population reaching heard immunity
... maybe avoiding extended periods of exponential growth has its merits

Even then:
- periods where the heath services were almost overwhelmed
- major shortages of medical equipment (PPE, tests, ...)
- significant numbers of deaths in front-line staff

I think it's a balance between the Kipling verse and the Vietnam-war version
If you can keep your head while all about are loosing theirs -- you'll be a man my son.,
If you can keep your head while all about are loosing theirs -- maybe you just don't understand the situation.

Last edited by Peter H; 13th Aug 2020 at 12:47. Reason: added even-then
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Old 13th Aug 2020, 11:26
  #9013 (permalink)  
 
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And add:-
Long term after effects/ill health
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Old 13th Aug 2020, 12:25
  #9014 (permalink)  
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And the incidence of cases in Americas and Indian subcontinent containing unabated and two of those countries said the dangers were overblown.
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Old 13th Aug 2020, 12:25
  #9015 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by BehindBlueEyes View Post


There will be a new contagion, too, and a new one after that. How many times can you send the national debt soaring, devastate small business, paralyse government services — including health care — and cancel for months on end the civil liberties of an erstwhile ‘free people’? In preference to this repeated carpet-bombing, a literal nuclear option might at least get the agony over with fast.

Lionel Shriver.
A new book on the way? ‘We need to talk about Covid’

Last edited by zoigberg; 13th Aug 2020 at 12:29. Reason: Removal of sections of quote
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Old 13th Aug 2020, 12:29
  #9016 (permalink)  
 
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And state how many Doctors and medical staff die treating Flu patients
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Old 13th Aug 2020, 15:13
  #9017 (permalink)  
 
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Looks like another sizeable workplace outbreak: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan...shire-53762233

Almost 300 people have tested positive for Covid-19 following an outbreak at a factory which makes M&S sandwiches.

Greencore in Northampton started "proactively testing" workers due to rising numbers of cases in the town.

Lucy Wightman, Director of Public Health at Northamptonshire County Council, said 299 workers had tested positive.
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Old 13th Aug 2020, 15:25
  #9018 (permalink)  
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They're not just sandwiches...
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Old 13th Aug 2020, 16:41
  #9019 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
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Spread a round, so to speak.
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Old 13th Aug 2020, 17:34
  #9020 (permalink)  
 
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Sparks will fly ...
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