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Coronavirus: The Thread

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Coronavirus: The Thread

Old 1st Mar 2020, 09:38
  #881 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SpringHeeledJack View Post
I believe The Nip was posting the figures to put the present death rates from Covid in context with all the other rates of death....
But they are NOT "rates of death" at all, they are TOTAL deaths over varying time periods - which was exactly the point OldNG was making - they cannot be meaningfully compared.

Specifically, this new Coronavirus strain was only first discovered in late 2019, and probably didn't exist in ANY human being at a very recent time, possibly October or November 2019, just 4 months ago. Yet it appears that numbers of people affected is increasing exponentially, possibly doubling in as short a timescale as each week. So the predicted number of deaths might reasonably be extrapolated to be many 100,000s or even millions within a finite - and quite short - period of time, say within 1 year.

Consider, a single grain of sand placed on a first square of a chess board. Then 2 grains placed on the 2nd square, 4 on the 3rd, and 8 on the 4th. Each of those 64 squares represents a doubling of the sand - and just 1 week. THERE ARE NOT ENOUGH GRAINS OF SAND ON EARTH TO CONTINUE THIS FOR THE WHOLE CHESS BOARD. Yet in this very rough and ready illustration would represent just 64 weeks from October 2019, which is January 2021.

The point 'The Nip' failed to make in their posting of irrelevant comparative numbers was that deaths by driving (or any of the other causes of death) aren't increasing exponentially, if at all, and certainly not doubling every week! And that is why their posing of irrelevant numbers was met with the disdain they rightly deserved.
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Old 1st Mar 2020, 10:10
  #882 (permalink)  
 
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I‘ve just figured my chances of dying are 100%.
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Old 1st Mar 2020, 11:22
  #883 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by pilotmike View Post

The point 'The Nip' failed to make in their posting of irrelevant comparative numbers was that deaths by driving (or any of the other causes of death) aren't increasing exponentially, if at all, and certainly not doubling every week! And that is why their posing of irrelevant numbers was met with the disdain they rightly deserved.
I didn't fail to make any point. I deliberately avoided making any comment. Unless you can show/prove something that isn't there!
I posted some figures showing death by various causes. They were a snapshot in time. The current figures for this outbreak will be used in future events to compare against any future outbreak. Records will be kept and tables produced.
In 12/18/24 months time, they will have changed. A comparison may well be interesting to the figures posted.

You appear to another one who thinks that they determine what is or is not irrelevant. If they are so irrelevant why continue to mention them? Why not just ignore them? Do you own this forum?
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Old 1st Mar 2020, 11:43
  #884 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by The Nip View Post
I didn't fail to make any point. I deliberately avoided making any comment. Unless you can show/prove something that isn't there!
I posted some figures showing death by various causes. They were a snapshot in time. The current figures for this outbreak will be used in future events to compare against any future outbreak. Records will be kept and tables produced.
In 12/18/24 months time, they will have changed. A comparison may well be interesting to the figures posted.

You appear to another one who thinks that they determine what is or is not irrelevant. If they are so irrelevant why continue to mention them? Why not just ignore them? Do you own this forum?
Some seem to have appointed themselves saviour of the forum. Not realising that most just think this is an interesting story line, but nothing to get that worked up about. For the vast majority of the population this is just yet another bug going round.

sure it is more serious for the older generation, but then once you get to a certain age, with underlying conditions everything assumes a
greater risk.

Sure some younger people might succumb but that also always happens with any virus or bacteria. Some have even died from the common cold virus.
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Old 1st Mar 2020, 12:01
  #885 (permalink)  
 
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Found this 2016 research article:
  • all I read in the press, is that there is no medicine available you can take, but from this research article it seems that simple over-the-counter medicine and supplements as ingredients, albeit not in an freely available formulation (intravenous, inhalable), prove to be effective: D, L-lysine acetylsalicylate + glycine sold as “Asprin i.v. 500mg®” (LASAG), which is an approved drug inter alia in the treatment of acute pain, migraine and fever, impairs propagation of different CoV including the highly-pathogenic MERS-CoV in vitro.
  • and for the statistics discussion: the large family Coronaviridae [...] most prominent representatives are SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, which can lead to fatal infections with around 10% and 39% mortality
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Old 1st Mar 2020, 12:05
  #886 (permalink)  
 
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Existing risk of dying in the next 12 months is probably around 2% for a male in their mid-60s.

What about a male in HIS mid 60s?

Depends on his/their level of pedantry!

Or ignorance...
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Old 1st Mar 2020, 12:37
  #887 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Twitter View Post
Existing risk of dying in the next 12 months is probably around 2% for a male in their mid-60s.

What about a male in HIS mid 60s?

Depends on his/their level of pedantry!

Or ignorance...
Oh come on - that's just the same joke turned around!

Yes - of course you're right - I used the wrong pronoun. Guilty as charged.
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Old 1st Mar 2020, 12:40
  #888 (permalink)  
 
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I'm probably not going to keep responding to your attempts to calculate comparisons much longer, slats. I've mostly kept at it up to this point because bad information in situations like this is confusing to people in general and the consequences of confusion can be dangerous.

I'll just start by reiterating that your understanding of influenza fatality rates and the way they are estimated is seriously flawed. The generally-accepted average case fatality rate for the US is .1% -- one-tenth of one percent. I don't think you could find a competent epidemiologist anywhere who would support your one one-hundredth of one percent notion. And unless you can find expert support for your idea, you should seriously consider that you may well be very wrong.

Originally Posted by slats11 View Post
The flu data is all over the place. Look at he graphic on the cdc site you linked, and you will see we have a very vague idea about flu numbers.
It would be more accurate to say that understanding of case fatality for influenza is complicated and inexact. For example, as you point out, very few death certificates, at least in the US, cite influenza as a proximate cause. That's because patients who die at the end of a disease course that begins with influenza typically end up with secondary/opportunistic infections, renal failure, etc. that tend to be cited as causes of death. When epidemiologists are trying to estimate flu deaths, they have to include some percentage of fatalities listed as caused by some of these things, which they can do with some accuracy, because there are statistics that give them a pretty good idea of the frequency with which they develop in flu cases. Also, of course the number of flu cases and deaths varies widely from flu season to flu season.

None of this changes the accepted professional estimates of influenza case fatality from the usual ballpark figure of .1% to anything like your numbers.

Most cases are not diagnosed . . .
That's not relevant. As I keep trying to explain, we are talking about case fatality rates (for both influenza and COVID-19). Undiagnosed (and misdiagnosed) cases aren't counted and so can't effect the CFR. The rate of of fatalities out of all infections is referred to as the infection fatality rate -- IFR. That's not what we're talking about. No one has any idea for COVID-19, at this point and it doesn't matter when we're talking about known cases. Epidemiologists do have insight into IFRs for flu epidemics, because, for one thing, population surveillance testing is performed to provide data about asymptomatic and unreported infections. But that's not relevant to this discussion.

The paper I linked looked at 25 years of data, and came up with an average of 10 deaths per 100,000 (= 0.01%).
The paper you linked looks at fatalities per 100,000 thousand population, not per known influenza cases. Read it again:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19453440

And please, then, come back here and tell the people reading this thread that you recognize you got it wrong.

Look at the data another way if you prefer. Look at causes of death data. Flu is way down the list.
Yet again, irrelevant. We aren't talking about relative causes of death in a population. We're talking about case fatality rates of two specific diseases.

Seriously, there is no reason to continue this exchange.
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Old 1st Mar 2020, 12:46
  #889 (permalink)  
 
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Gentlemen (and ladies) shall we not concentrate on the thread title instead of sporadic and somewhat pedantic posts and retorts ? Let's not get caught up in choosing to take someone to task for a mistaken word or get angry with someone who takes a differing view. I imagine that most of us will be affected in some way IF things get dramatically worse, whether it is a child, adult, senior citizen, ill person, and so on, so it stands that we might feel threatened/frightened/worried. There's some good info on this thread, let's keep it coming. We should keep in mind that this is an aviation rumour site and not a peer reviewed scientific forum.

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Old 1st Mar 2020, 12:50
  #890 (permalink)  
 
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Twelve more in England, now 35.
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Old 1st Mar 2020, 12:56
  #891 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by highflyer40 View Post
. . . most just think this is an interesting story line, but nothing to get that worked up about. For the vast majority of the population this is just yet another bug going round.
The "most" who think that tend to do so for two reasons: (1) They aren't familiar with/don't understand the relevant known data and the applicable basics of epidemiology; and they haven't been exposed to or don't understand the opinions and warnings of the best experts in the fields of epidemiology, virology and public health; and/or (2) They simply share the common human tendency to dismiss or deny warnings of danger, difficulty and unpleasantness. This tendency is reinforced by public officials who both share the tendency themselves and are concerned not to frighten the public or take actions or make statements that might promote behavior that interrupts social and economic functions.

I will be very surprised if "most" continue to think this probable emerging pandemic is "nothing to get worked up about" over the coming months. Stand by.
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Old 1st Mar 2020, 13:02
  #892 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SpringHeeledJack View Post
Gentlemen (and ladies) shall we not concentrate on the thread title instead of sporadic and somewhat pedantic posts and retorts ? Let's not get caught up in choosing to take someone to task for a mistaken word or get angry with someone who takes a differing view. I imagine that most of us will be affected in some way IF things get dramatically worse, whether it is a child, adult, senior citizen, ill person, and so on, so it stands that we might feel threatened/frightened/worried. There's some good info on this thread, let's keep it coming. We should keep in mind that this is an aviation rumour site and not a peer reviewed scientific forum.
For myself, I can either post what I know and believe to be accurate, considered, useful data and information -- and refute or correct what I think is wrong, confusing or even dangerous . . . or I can leave the discussion. If I come to the conclusion that most participants are unable to distinguish between those categories, I'll certainly leave, because continuing to post under those circumstances is a waste of time and energy. I don't do this to entertain myself.

And, no, Jack. The rumors forum is elsewhere on this site. The very last thing we need in this discussion is rumors.
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Old 1st Mar 2020, 13:22
  #893 (permalink)  
 
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ONG keep it coming.
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Old 1st Mar 2020, 13:28
  #894 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by stagger View Post
Oh come on - that's just the same joke turned around!

Yes - of course you're right - I used the wrong pronoun. Guilty as charged.
Best I could do on the spur of the moment Stagger. Big far away to buy a beer I’m afraid...
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Old 1st Mar 2020, 13:33
  #895 (permalink)  
 
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Finally this “Latin” behaviour scrutinised

French official advises against kissing due to coronavirus fears

From CNN's Barbara Wojazer in Paris
A French official has advised against a long-time French tradition -- cheek kissing -- over coronavirus fears.

"Reduction of physical social contact is recommended. This includes "la bise," French health minister Olivier Véran told reporters on Saturday in Paris.

Véran also said people should avoid handshakes as well.

What is "la bise"? The tradition of planting an kiss on a person’s cheek multiple times, is a well-known French greeting.
The tradition of "la bise" involves kissing on the cheek, as demonstrated by the late French fashion designer Yves Saint Laurent as he greets his mother in Paris in 1959. Keystone /Hulton Archive/Getty Images


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Old 1st Mar 2020, 13:47
  #896 (permalink)  
 
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Let's answer the important question....."Do I cancel Christmas?".

If that Chessboard thing is right,,,,,we all should enjoy a good Thanksgiving and forget about Christmas.....or did I miss something?

We survived the 1918 Flu, Polio, Mad Cow, SARS, HIV, Ebola, Herpes, The Great Depression, and eight years of Obama.....why is this Virus going to be any different?

This too shall come to pass and with the full targeting of it by multiple research efforts....Community Health Investigations....Travel Restrictions and Quarantines....counter measures will become effective as in past outbreaks of diseases.

Someone please explain why this particular outbreak is so dangerous to world health as compared to those in the past before the advent of very sophisticated meidical diagnosis and care?

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Old 1st Mar 2020, 14:03
  #897 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by OldnGrounded View Post
The "most" who think that tend to do so for two reasons: (1) They aren't familiar with/don't understand the relevant known data and the applicable basics of epidemiology; and they haven't been exposed to or don't understand the opinions and warnings of the best experts in the fields of epidemiology, virology and public health; and/or (2) They simply share the common human tendency to dismiss or deny warnings of danger, difficulty and unpleasantness. This tendency is reinforced by public officials who both share the tendency themselves and are concerned not to frighten the public or take actions or make statements that might promote behavior that interrupts social and economic functions.

I will be very surprised if "most" continue to think this probable emerging pandemic is "nothing to get worked up about" over the coming months. Stand by.
I don’t want to seem argumentative but again most don’t care about the scientific this that, or the other. They just care about how it is going to affect their life. They question is this going to make me seriously ill, and from all research so far if you are under the age of 60 in the huge majority of cases no it won’t.

The experts are always going to sound worried because that is their job. Their job is to be worried and solve a problem.

Self isolate the at risk group. The elderly, and those with pre existing conditions.
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Old 1st Mar 2020, 14:07
  #898 (permalink)  
 
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Severe dyspnea is very very frightening I am told. Don't fancy that, irrespective of survival. UK interim life tables put the probably of death in the next year for a 65 year old male at 1.2% to put things in perspective. For an 80 year old it's about 5.5%. Of course for an individual it's either 0 or 1.

Last edited by Mr Optimistic; 1st Mar 2020 at 14:22.
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Old 1st Mar 2020, 14:18
  #899 (permalink)  
 
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That is why I object violently when anyone suggests that water boarding is not torture.
There is nothing more frightening than dyspnea. Spoken from experience.
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Old 1st Mar 2020, 14:22
  #900 (permalink)  
 
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I'll just start by reiterating that your understanding of influenza fatality rates and the way they are estimated is seriously flawed. The generally-accepted average case fatality rate for the US is .1% -- one-tenth of one percent. I don't think you could find a competent epidemiologist anywhere who would support your one one-hundredth of one percent notion. And unless you can find expert support for your idea, you should seriously consider that you may well be very wrong.
OK so for USA as of Jan 29, mortality was 8,200/15,000,000 = 0.05%. It bounces around from year to year, and the mortality is declining as we are (for better or worse) increasingly using POC tests to diagnose milder cases.
Anyway, the current US data indicates 0.05% (somewhere between your 0.1% and my 0.01%)

The point is that the kill rate of this coronavirus is vastly greater than the seasonal flu. There is a lot of uncertainty about the fatality rate, but it is probably in the order of 2-3%. This makes it perhaps 50x more lethal than the 'flu - this is a point estimate with a significant room for error in either direction. I very much doubt it is only 10x as lethal as seasonal flu. I hope it is not 100x as lethal.

Regardless, it is plenty bad enough we don't need to split hairs.





Seriously, there is no reason to continue this exchange.
Agreed. I wish you well.
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