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Coronavirus: The Thread

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Coronavirus: The Thread

Old 16th Jul 2020, 13:46
  #8361 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2004
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Just reported:
Sir Patrick Vallance has just been asked if there are any instances in which the government has gone against scientific advice on Covid-19.

“In general, what I can be absolutely clear about is that those making policy decisions have heard and understood the scientific advice,” Vallance said.
So that's a yes then.
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Old 16th Jul 2020, 15:39
  #8362 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
There is indeed a shortage of common sense, and a part of that is due to there being near-zero education with regard to the mechanism of infection transmission and real basic stuff, like how wearing masks, gloves etc properly can help to reduce the risk. Telling people to wear masks without giving at least some basic information as to how to do so properly, and when wearing one might be sensible, is akin to telling someone that can't drive to just get in and give it ago, with no need for instruction.

I'm at a loss to understand why there hasn't been any effective public educational stuff put out about reducing infection transmission risk. It isn't rocket science, but it seems clear that many people are completely ignorant of the basic principles, even many of those who are wearing masks and gloves, but putting themselves at potentially greater risk because they just fail to understand some basic principles.
I took Mrs WB627 to the surgery today for a diabetes check up and sitting outside waiting for her to be taken in by the back door, I was amazed at how many people were coming and going with their masks not covering their noses, mostly elderly. There was one woman, who pushed here way through the crowd milling around outside to get to the letter box who wasn't even wearing a mask.

I don't think it's Covid 19 killing people I think it is stupidity.
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Old 17th Jul 2020, 08:19
  #8363 (permalink)  
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https://order-order.com/2020/07/17/o...herd-immunity/

Oxford Study: Britain Has Reached Herd Immunity

A new Oxford University study suggests Britain has already reached herd immunity levels, as a new model predicts as few as 20% of the population may need to be resistant to Coronavirus to prevent a new epidemic spreading.

Far below the 50-60% threshold previously thought…

The study has managed to demonstrate that when COVID-resistant people mix with those yet to contract the virus, the herd immunity threshold “drops sharply”, explicitly observing: “Thus, a second peak may result in far fewer deaths, particularly among those with comorbidities in the younger age classes.”

Unfortunately the proof in the pudding would be a second wave of Coronavirus, probably in the winter, which no one – however confident they are about herd immunity – would want to risk…

Read the study in full here
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Old 17th Jul 2020, 08:36
  #8364 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
https://order-order.com/2020/07/17/o...herd-immunity/

Oxford Study: Britain Has Reached Herd Immunity

A new Oxford University study suggests Britain has already reached herd immunity levels, as a new model predicts as few as 20% of the population may need to be resistant to Coronavirus to prevent a new epidemic spreading.
Before even opening the link I knew this was going to be Sunetra Gupta again.

It's a mathematical modelling paper - they haven't measured levels of immunity in anyone.

This is the same scientist who recently was banging on in the media about lockdown making our immune systems "weaker" (with no evidence for this).

And back in March she was saying that 50% of the UK population had already been infected - only to be proved completely wrong when antibody studies in May showed that the proportion was < 20% even in London.

This particular scientist has always been very keen to try to downplay the risks - and to repeat - does not study actual infection rates or immunity in the UK population. It's all theoretical work.
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Old 17th Jul 2020, 08:46
  #8365 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by WB627 View Post
I took Mrs WB627 to the surgery today for a diabetes check up and sitting outside waiting for her to be taken in by the back door, I was amazed at how many people were coming and going with their masks not covering their noses, mostly elderly. There was one woman, who pushed here way through the crowd milling around outside to get to the letter box who wasn't even wearing a mask.

I don't think it's Covid 19 killing people I think it is stupidity.
I was in Lidl yesterday, since the government has told us that masks need to be worn from next Friday, I have made the assumption that if they're needed then, then they are needed now, so from the beginning of this week I have worn my mask when entering shops, and will do likewise when I enter a restaurant and pub, should I be inclined to visit either.

I was struck by firstly, just how few customers were wearing masks, but even more surprisingly how few staff were wearing them. There is a dispenser for hand sanitiser at the entrance with a sign saying "please sanitise your hands", but it's not one of the automatic ones you don't have to touch, but just a bottle with a pump action. Surely the sign should say "you must sanitise your hands" and a modern non-touch dispenser ought to be in place, they appear to be the norm at supermarkets on the European continent. Given that employers have a duty of care to their employees, they should be enforcing the use of masks and visors for customer facing staff, and to avoid being sued by any employee contracting Covid-19 surely the onus should be upon the store management to ensure that customers are wearing masks, and ejecting from the shop if they refuse to comply when instructed (not asked).

This isn't just a critique of Lidl, Morrisons and Tesco appear to operate in the same lackadaisical manner. It isn't the job of police to enforce rules inside private premises, it's clearly the jobs of the retailers and they simply don't appear to be taking things seriously, believing that making customers queue outside the shop somehow cuts the mustard; it doesn't.
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Old 17th Jul 2020, 09:11
  #8366 (permalink)  
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The government has ordered an urgent review into how PHE calculates its daily Covid death figures.

According to Sky News the current calculations are currently done based on whether anyone who dies has ever tested positive for Covid.

The example given was that if someone had tested positive for Covid in March, then fully recovered and returned to work and was then hit by a bus and killed crossing the road yesterday - they would currently then be included in the PHE daily Covid death figures.
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Old 17th Jul 2020, 09:18
  #8367 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
The government has ordered an urgent review into how PHE calculates its daily Covid death figures.

According to Sky News the current calculations are currently done based on whether anyone who dies has ever tested positive for Covid.

The example given was that if someone had tested positive for Covid in March, then fully recovered and returned to work and was then hit by a bus and killed crossing the road yesterday - they would currently then be included in the PHE daily Covid death figures.
Of course this has no impact on the "excess death" figures - as these provide a measure of deaths over and above what you'd expect for a typical year.

Preliminary mortality estimates for the COVID-19 pandemic have been published here...

https://www.eurosurveillance.org/con...#html_fulltext

England and Spain are noted as being unusual for seeing excess mortality - not just in older groups - but also in the 15-44 year range.


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Old 17th Jul 2020, 09:49
  #8368 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
https://order-order.com/2020/07/17/o...herd-immunity/
Oxford Study: Britain Has Reached Herd Immunity
A new Oxford University study suggests Britain has already reached herd immunity levels, as a new model predicts as few as 20% of the population may need to be resistant to Coronavirus to prevent a new epidemic spreading.
...
Read the study in full hereÖ
What a truly off-putting presentational style. I'll take a deep breath and try to read it this evening.

I would very strongly recommend looking at the ""Supplementary Material", especially "Model details and extra result", first
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medr...20154294-2.pdf
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Old 17th Jul 2020, 09:59
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
The government has ordered an urgent review into how PHE calculates its daily Covid death figures.

According to Sky News the current calculations are currently done based on whether anyone who dies has ever tested positive for Covid.

The example given was that if someone had tested positive for Covid in March, then fully recovered and returned to work and was then hit by a bus and killed crossing the road yesterday - they would currently then be included in the PHE daily Covid death figures.
I thought they were using death cert deets. No? Matt wanting to 'adjust' a bit more of the narrative? Yesterday the lockdown slipped a week in his favour.

CG
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Old 17th Jul 2020, 15:48
  #8370 (permalink)  
 
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A good illustration of how undercounting of COVID-19 deaths is a big problem too.

Back in April there was a big surge in "other deaths" (supposedly excluding COVID-19) in UK care homes. This surge coincided with the peak in confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the care homes - and was happening at a time when it was extremely difficult for care home residents to get tested for COVID-19.


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Old 17th Jul 2020, 17:17
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I'm highlighting this here by way of a wager, as I strongly suspect these words may well come back and bite him in the backside:

Coronavirus restrictions will ease further in England under plans for a "significant return to normality" by Christmas, Boris Johnson has announced.
Whilst I fully understand his wish to be seen to be optimistic, much of the evidence now available seems to indicate that we are very likely to see a surge in the number of cases this coming winter. It seems unlikely that we will have a vaccine that's widely available by then, and it seems highly probable that this disease may well behave like other, similar, infectious respiratory diseases and have a far more serious impact during the winter.

There's some evidence to suggest that this disease is getting less virulent, and whilst that would be something to be expected to some degree (natural selection tends to work in this direction, as it enhances the chances of the disease spreading), I'm not at all convinced that this is the primary reason for this disease. The evidence that people are more susceptible to severe infectious respiratory disease during the winter months seems very strong, so it would seem safe to assume that this disease may well behave similarly.

What would be useful would be a study looking at a large population of cases and correlating the severity of symptoms with factors known to have an impact on other viral seasonal diseases, like influenza. For example, the Australian work (linked by Peter H earlier, and in this publication: https://virologyj.biomedcentral.com/...1743-422X-5-29) looking at vitamin D levels and seasonal influenza seems to show a very strong correlation. If there was a similar correlation for Covid-19 then that might be a cheap and effective way to perhaps reduce the severity of this disease during the winter months. I'm not a supporter of taking action without good evidence to support it, but, given there's not enough time to do much in the way of preventing the continued spread of this disease, I'm taking a rather non-scientific course of action and will continue to take ~2,000 IU of vitamin D3 every day. It can't do harm at that level, and at a cost of under £8 a month it seems a small price to pay, especially if it does help a bit.

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Old 17th Jul 2020, 18:20
  #8372 (permalink)  
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Of those reported as having died of Covid-19 by PHE only 47% had it recorded as the main cause of death on their death certificates.

What does that do to the reported UK death figures compared to other nations?



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Old 17th Jul 2020, 18:32
  #8373 (permalink)  
 
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Coronavirus: Boris Johnson sets out plan for 'significant normality' by Christmas
AND
£3bn for NHS to prepare for possible second wave
Obviously hedging his bets, but can't be both.

As I said yesterday, the advice we were given by a Doctor, (and not Dr WB627) was that we would be back in lockdown by the end of October. I sincerely hope not, not least because the youngest WB627 was promoted yesterday and the leisure facility he is now the manager of, will open again on 1st August.
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Old 17th Jul 2020, 18:50
  #8374 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by WB627 View Post
As I said yesterday, the advice we were given by a Doctor, (and not Dr WB627) was that we would be back in lockdown by the end of October.
Politically impossible. It will not happen.
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Old 17th Jul 2020, 20:01
  #8375 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by guy_incognito View Post
Politically impossible. It will not happen.
The virus will decide if it will happen or not. If people do not wear masks properly and R rate goes mental like it did in early March.
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Old 17th Jul 2020, 20:56
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Originally Posted by Vat is Jetstream View Post
The virus will decide if it will happen or not. If people do not wear masks properly and R rate goes mental like it did in early March.

Iím not so sure the British Public would be so compliant a second time. Most people went along with it to start with but two camps seem to have evolved now. Those who think we shouldnít be easing up yet and want to put the brakes on and those that think the economy needs to be revitalised. Itís all become very divisive.
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Old 17th Jul 2020, 23:25
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It was reported on the news yesterday that in light of the jump in daily increases in new positives in Tokyo, 82% of Tokyoites would actually consider a second soft lockdown. Most positives are young people but there is an increase among older people too. I also heard talk of two strains doing the rounds but have as yet been unable to find written confirmation of this.
Also, there is similar talk here as BBE says above, that the government needs to drive with one foot on the accelerator and one on the brakes.
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Old 18th Jul 2020, 05:37
  #8378 (permalink)  
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https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...success-report

UK plans millions of free coronavirus antibody tests after trial success

The UK government is planning to distribute millions of free coronavirus antibody tests after successful secret trials, according to reports........

Anticipating a regulatory approval in the coming weeks, tens of thousands of prototypes have already been manufactured in factories across the United Kingdom, the report added. Ministers are hoping that the AbC-19 lateral flow test will be available for use in a mass screening program before the end of the year, the newspaper reported.......

“It was found to be 98.6 per cent accurate, and that’s very good news,” Chris Hand, the leader of the UK-RTC, was quoted as saying by the Telegraph. “We’re now scaling up with our partners to produce hundreds of thousands of doses every month”, Hand said, adding the government’s health department is in talks with UK-RTC over buying millions of tests before the year ends.

The tests are likely to be free and would be ordered online instead of being sold in supermarkets, according to plans cited by the newspaper......
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Old 18th Jul 2020, 05:58
  #8379 (permalink)  
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https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipelin...he-coronavirus

New Data on T Cells and the Coronavirus
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Old 18th Jul 2020, 07:06
  #8380 (permalink)  
 
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Christmas, but did he say which Christmas..
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