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Coronavirus: The Thread

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Coronavirus: The Thread

Old 30th Jun 2020, 17:03
  #8081 (permalink)  
 
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One would have imagined the UK Govt would have thought through the mechanics of local lockdowns, given all their talk of such over recent weeks. From the sounds of it they're making it up as they go along.
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Old 30th Jun 2020, 17:39
  #8082 (permalink)  
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Will the 6 month ban on PIA landing in Europe help contain the virus?
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Old 30th Jun 2020, 18:01
  #8083 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator View Post
Will the 6 month ban on PIA landing in Europe help contain the virus?
I imagine it can only be positive for the UK; if flights from India and the USA, along with South America could be curtailed we'd be in a much better place. Alternatively we could properly enforce quarantine from the Covid basket cases (and I include the USA in that description) through arrival being locked away for 14 days in a government funded "hotels" then ship any positives back where they came from! Can't see that happening.
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Old 30th Jun 2020, 20:31
  #8084 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by dead_pan View Post
One would have imagined the UK Govt would have thought through the mechanics of local lockdowns, given all their talk of such over recent weeks. From the sounds of it they're making it up as they go along.
Leicester reportedly provided concerns on rising numbers to central Government 12 days ago.
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Old 30th Jun 2020, 22:04
  #8085 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by dead_pan View Post
One would have imagined the UK Govt would have thought through the mechanics of local lockdowns, given all their talk of such over recent weeks. From the sounds of it they're making it up as they go along.
Surely not
They wouldn't.
Would they?.......................
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Old 30th Jun 2020, 22:15
  #8086 (permalink)  
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More evidence to support the hypothesis of T-cell immunity.....

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...than-we-think-


Is Covid immunity more common than we think?

Antibody tests on random samples of the population have so far shown much lower levels of general infection than the government’s scientific advisers claimed would be necessary to attain ‘herd immunity’. In London, for example, tests have shown that 17 per cent of the population have antibodies to Sars-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19. In New York, the figure is 21 per cent. At the beginning of this crisis, on the other hand, Sir Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser, suggested that at least 60 per cent of the population would have to be infected in order to achieve herd immunity.

But are antibodies the whole story? Not according to a team from Sweden’s Karolinska Institute, which has found that 30 per cent of Swedish blood donors in May this year were found to have an immune response to Covid-19 in their T cells – white blood cells that are an essential part of the immune system. Remarkably, many of these people had no detectable antibodies – suggesting that their T cells had fought off the disease without any need to produce antibodies. In all, they say, roughly twice as many people had a T cell reaction than had measurable levels of antibodies.

The usual warning applies to this research as to virtually all Covid-19 research, including the Imperial College modelling that inspired lockdown – it has not yet been peer-reviewed or published in a reputable journal. Moreover, it included a fairly small sample of 200 people.

However, it does provide a possible explanation for why the Covid-19 epidemic seems to have died away in many places once it had infected around 20 per cent of the local population (as judged by the presence of antibodies). If people are developing some kind of immunity to Covid-19 via their T cells then it could mean that a far higher percentage of the population has been exposed to Covid-19 than previously thought. Antibodies and T cells combined, it is conceivable that some places such as London or New York are already at or near the 60 per cent infection level required to achieve herd immunity.

What the Karolinska team admits that it doesn’t yet know is the extent of immunity to Covid-19, which is gained through the T cell response. One problem thrown up by the research is that it is much harder to detect a T cell response in an individual than it is to detect the presence of antibodies. The T cells can be detected by laboratory tests but there is not yet a test that is as easy to perform as an antibody test. That means that it will take some time to undertake more research in this particular field.
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Old 30th Jun 2020, 22:19
  #8087 (permalink)  
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And again.....

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...tists-say.html

How having a cold could protect you from Covid-19: Scientists uncover MORE evidence that fighting off mild respiratory bugs may make you immune to the coronavirus

Having endured a common cold could protect people from getting severe Covid-19, according to scientists.

A study suggests the immune system's reaction to different coronaviruses could be very similar to its reaction to the one behind the pandemic. As a result, lasting immunity from those viruses — known to cause colds — may help the body fight off Covid-19 if someone catches it, meaning they get less seriously ill.

The German research also focuses on a less-discussed type of immunity, instead of antibodies which have been at the forefront of a lot of studies. T-cell immunity appears to be more common among infected patients and scientists say it may potentially last even longer.

Eight out of 10 people who have never even had the disease have some degree of protection because of colds they've had in the past, the study claimed. And even Covid-19 patients with very mild symptoms developed a strong T-cell immune response, whereas they do not appear to have strong antibody responses.....
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Old 30th Jun 2020, 22:33
  #8088 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by parabellum View Post
Right at the beginning of the UK pandemic when unhelpful journalists were drawing comparisons between the UK and other countries one of the medical scientists gave what I thought was a sensible explanation for variations in the severity of infection. The scientists said the extent of exposure to the virus would effect the seriousness of infection and this was definitely proportional to the density of population in any one country and in order to establish this density it was necessary to calculate the average number of people in one square mile of country, he then compared France, Germany and Italy with England and it was shown that the people per square mile in England was far greater than on the continent, there fore the risk of extended exposure to the virus was much greater.
Can you reference some data supporting the idea that the severity of infections, rather than their number, is related to population density? If it's true it's obviously both interesting and important.

When you talk about severity I assume you mean you mean something like CFR or IFR (case or infection fatality rate)?

PS I get the impression that hospital triage is largely in terms of age and co-morbidities, rather than early-stage symptoms. In which case it's difficult to see how a greater infecting 'dose' would only makes its presence felt at the point serious complications set in. Typically 15 days after infection (10 days after symptoms appear).


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Old 30th Jun 2020, 23:04
  #8089 (permalink)  
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There's a lot in these last posts.

Viral shock. We might have made that up on this thread, but it's an obvious factor. Breath in a mass of virions and you're in much greater danger.

Alighting point. There's ( I think ) a gas exchange capsule that does not trigger an immune response. By the time infected cells start producing perhaps 10,000:1 response and releasing them back up, it's horribly late to set the immune system into action.
B cells produce and secrete antibodies, activating the immune system to destroy the pathogens. The main difference between T cells and B cells is that T cells can only recognize viral antigens outside the infected cells whereas B cells can recognize the surface antigens of bacteria and viruses.2 days
It's only England that has the high population. Scotland and Wales dilutes the figures more than a tad.

Best response on the planet. South Korea - with five other excellent responders. From memory, London, ~4,500 k heads per sq/km Seoul, 17,500. Masks that were ready because of a lesson learned. MASKS MASKS MASKS. The secondary masks bought near the results of the N95.

Around here, about one in twenty wear one. Poor souls cry that their too claustrophobic to wear one. Poor diddums. They should have been around in the war.
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Old 1st Jul 2020, 05:57
  #8090 (permalink)  
 
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I have noticed a number of people who do wear mask only wear them on their chin or at the most their mouth leaving their nose uncovered or they pull them up and down thus constantly touching their face.
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Old 1st Jul 2020, 07:23
  #8091 (permalink)  
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Time for a crack-down in sweatshops ?

Leicester Outbreak

From POLITICO:

Factory records: Among the possible factors mooted for Leicester’s outbreak are poorly regulated industrial sites in the city. And right on cue the Guardian’s Archie Bland reports that some of the city’s garment factories “stayed open as normal throughout the coronavirus crisis,” and “ordered workers to continue to report for duty even when they were sick.” Citing a report by campaign group Labour Behind the Label, he says one staffer “told his employer he was unwell but was told to come in to work anyway — even after testing positive … Workers in a number of factories told the group there had been no physical distancing measures in place and that their employers had closed only for a few days, if at all.”
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Old 1st Jul 2020, 07:31
  #8092 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Time for a crack-down in sweatshops ?

Leicester Outbreak

From POLITICO:

Factory records: Among the possible factors mooted for Leicester’s outbreak are poorly regulated industrial sites in the city. And right on cue the Guardian’s Archie Bland reports that some of the city’s garment factories “stayed open as normal throughout the coronavirus crisis,” and “ordered workers to continue to report for duty even when they were sick.” Citing a report by campaign group Labour Behind the Label, he says one staffer “told his employer he was unwell but was told to come in to work anyway — even after testing positive … Workers in a number of factories told the group there had been no physical distancing measures in place and that their employers had closed only for a few days, if at all.”

I can feel an accusation of racism coming from this statement, no matter that it might be a very pertinent fact.
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Old 1st Jul 2020, 07:45
  #8093 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Time for a crack-down in sweatshops ?

Leicester Outbreak

From POLITICO:

Factory records: Among the possible factors mooted for Leicester’s outbreak are poorly regulated industrial sites in the city. And right on cue the Guardian’s Archie Bland reports that some of the city’s garment factories “stayed open as normal throughout the coronavirus crisis,” and “ordered workers to continue to report for duty even when they were sick.” Citing a report by campaign group Labour Behind the Label, he says one staffer “told his employer he was unwell but was told to come in to work anyway — even after testing positive … Workers in a number of factories told the group there had been no physical distancing measures in place and that their employers had closed only for a few days, if at all.”
Anyone who has ever worked around the back streets of Leicester, and not just the inner city parts would not be in the least surprised by these revelations. But there will be other factors in play included multiple generations living in overcrowded conditions, and an astonishing number of residents who, although they've been in the the UK for 50 odd years still can't comprehend English; they are mainly female, and held under the thumbs of a very patriarchal culture.
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Old 1st Jul 2020, 08:45
  #8094 (permalink)  
 
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Poorly regulated but apparently well known?
Did anyone expect a different outcome?
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Old 1st Jul 2020, 09:55
  #8095 (permalink)  
 
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Facinating chart to watch showing the spread by countries

https://public.flourish.studio/visua...0/embed?auto=1
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Old 1st Jul 2020, 10:41
  #8096 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose View Post
Facinating chart to watch showing the spread by countries

https://public.flourish.studio/visua...0/embed?auto=1
Indeed.

Would be interesting to see one corrected for population size also.
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Old 1st Jul 2020, 18:10
  #8097 (permalink)  
 
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Interesting bit of work from Sweden: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53248660

People testing negative for coronavirus antibodies may still have some immunity, a study has suggested.

For every person testing positive for antibodies, two were found to have specific T-cells which identify and destroy infected cells.

This was seen even in people who had mild or symptomless cases of Covid-19.

But it's not yet clear whether this just protects that individual, or if it might also stop them from passing on the infection to others.

Researchers at the Karolinksa Institute in Sweden tested 200 people for both antibodies and T-cells.

Some were blood donors while others were tracked down from the group of people first infected in Sweden, mainly returning from earlier affected areas like northern Italy.

This could mean a wider group have some level of immunity to Covid-19 than antibody testing figures, like those published as part of the UK Office for National Statistics Infection Survey, suggest.

It's likely those people did mount an antibody response, but either it had faded or was not detectable by the current tests.

And these people should be protected if they are exposed to the virus for a second time.

Prof Danny Altmann at Imperial College London described the study as "robust, impressive and thorough" and said it added to a growing body of evidence that "antibody testing alone underestimates immunity".
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Old 1st Jul 2020, 19:48
  #8098 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
For every person testing positive for antibodies, two were found to have specific T-cells which identify and destroy infected cells.
I looked at the study, it's very technical, took me a while to find the information the BBC article is talking about in it: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...888v1.full.pdf

The interesting part is this chart:



The blue bars represent blood donors. Apparently they found 4 people with antibodies, and 9 people with T-cells, out of 31.
The pink bars represent exposed relatives. They found 17 people with antibodies, and 26 with T-cells, out of 28.
The green bars represent mild convalescent. 27 people with antibodies, 30 with T-cells, out of 31.
The red bars represent severe convalescent. All 23 people had both antibodies and T-cells.

This means studies relying just on antibody tests to estimate the IFR would overestimate it by some amount.
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Old 2nd Jul 2020, 07:09
  #8099 (permalink)  
 
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From my preferred carrier :

Every aircraft in the Uno Hoo Airlines Group fleet is equipped with High Efficiency Particulate Air (HEPA) filters, which remove more than 99.9% of particulates such as viruses and bacteria. Cabin air is also refreshed every 2 to 3 minutes
Is that correct? And does it matter anyway?
If they filter the incoming air then it'll only be a help if the outside air is contaminated.
They can only help with re-circulated air and any snot that gets entrained will still be there until it hits the filter.
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Old 2nd Jul 2020, 08:43
  #8100 (permalink)  
 
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I agree wingnut, its of little help.
Even if the filters are that good the air and any aerosols within it is still moving through the cabin until it enters the intakes to the filter.

Its just another piece of disingenuous information designed to get people travelling regardless of the true risk.

Its a fact that we are going to have to live (or die) with this virus and I for one would prefer governments, businesses and the TV Talking Heads to be truthfull, take for instance the opening soon to happen opening of pubs and restaurants anyone with a clue knows it will result in increased infection rates and deaths............I wish these people could be honest and stop telling lies like " we are following the science".
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