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Coronavirus: The Thread

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Coronavirus: The Thread

Old 2nd Jun 2020, 09:06
  #7401 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
So was Cheltenham the disaster so many are saying, or were Sage correct in their advice and the Government correct in letting it go ahead?

Coronavirus: The Thread
No idea, yet.

We don't seem to have enough infections to have created any significant amount of acquired immunity in the population, so the risk should be much the same now as it was then. However, there have been several more recent occasions where groups of people have gathered outside and we've not seen any significant spikes in infections that might be attributed to them, AFAIK.

I have a sneaking suspicion that weather may play a big part in this disease, just as it does with seasonal influenza. We know that influenza is markedly seasonal; people are far more likely to be infected from October through to May and generally pretty unlikely to get it during the summer months. The cause of this variation doesn't seem to be proven beyond doubt, but may be combination of people being indoors more often in winter, lower temperatures increasing the persistence time of the virus and maybe some other effects, like lower vitamin D levels in winter, or perhaps the effect of humidity on the upper respiratory tract.
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Old 2nd Jun 2020, 09:09
  #7402 (permalink)  
 
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Take it back then to 28 February in Bristol where Greta turned up and was surrounded by 30,000+/- climate protestors. No-one in the UK or the press thought to mention Covid-19 at the time, (although I remember raising a finger as it was raging elsewhere in the world.) I rather doubt that any follow-up was done either.
https://thebathmagazine.co.uk/the-gr...limate-strike/
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Old 2nd Jun 2020, 09:17
  #7403 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
No idea, yet.

We don't seem to have enough infections to have created any significant amount of acquired immunity in the population, so the risk should be much the same now as it was then. However, there have been several more recent occasions where groups of people have gathered outside and we've not seen any significant spikes in infections that might be attributed to them, AFAIK.

I have a sneaking suspicion that weather may play a big part in this disease, just as it does with seasonal influenza. We know that influenza is markedly seasonal; people are far more likely to be infected from October through to May and generally pretty unlikely to get it during the summer months. The cause of this variation doesn't seem to be proven beyond doubt, but may be combination of people being indoors more often in winter, lower temperatures increasing the persistence time of the virus and maybe some other effects, like lower vitamin D levels in winter, or perhaps the effect of humidity on the upper respiratory tract.
There also seems to be a bit of an issue with testing the vaccine and the test and trace launch due to a lack of infection - which is actually rather reassuring!
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Old 2nd Jun 2020, 09:27
  #7404 (permalink)  
 
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I've just had a dig through the PHE influenza data. This graphic is from the last annual flu report, and shows cases over the past few years, with the "flu season" being assumed to start around week 40 each year (beginning of October):




If it turns out that Covid-19 behaves like seasonal influenza, and a few other respiratory diseases, then what we're seeing now, in terms of the reduced number of cases, might be largely driven by a seasonal effect. Be really interesting to see if this is the case. Comparing data from different countries might give some clue, as the "flu season" varies a fair bit from one region to another. For example, "flu season" in Australia is during their winter, as it is here, so roughly 6 months out of phase with the northern hemisphere.
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Old 2nd Jun 2020, 10:58
  #7405 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Loose rivets View Post
It was probably a virus that destroyed my hearing. The horrible thing is that I can't just have a listen to remind me, I'm too frightened that I'll corrupt what memory I do have.

Well, I'll go to the foot of our stairs.



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Old 2nd Jun 2020, 11:37
  #7406 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
I believe that BCG was pretty much universal for my generation, I'm pretty sure that everyone I went to school with was vaccinated with it, as I remember the long line of us standing in the corridor outside the school nurse's office, shirts off, waiting with more than a little trepidation. I had the feeling at the time that it wasn't something that was optional, although I may be wrong.
It was "pretty much universal" for some time after that. I remember all the troop being lined up for it during Army basic training in 1965. While I smiled. Having had a mild form of TB as a child, I have had life long immunity and have never had to undergo the test, let alone the vaccination.
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Old 2nd Jun 2020, 11:52
  #7407 (permalink)  
 
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I am beginning to get the warm glow of smugness that comes with vindication. Apparently I am not the only person questioning the government's dodgy use of testing figures.
The Chairman of the UK Statistics Authority has been on Matt Hancock's case about this twice recently.
He firs wrote to Hancock on 11th May asking, among other things, for clarity in these areas:
"It should be clear whether the target is intended to reflect:
testing capacity;
tests that have been administered;
test results received; or
the number of people tested."
https://www.statisticsauthority.gov....id-19-testing/

Hancock deigned to respond on 27th May, 16 days after receiving the request, with this
https://www.statisticsauthority.gov....id-19-testing/

Obviously, that was not good enough as the Chairman has again written to Hancock today:
https://www.statisticsauthority.gov....-testing-data/
His opening paragraph contains this observation:
"I am afraid though that the figures are still far from complete and comprehensible."
The letter goes on to include observations such as:
"The aim seems to be to show the largest possible number of tests, even at the expense of understanding. It is also hard to believe the statistics work to support the testing programme itself. The statistics and analysis serve neither purpose well."
"The headline total of tests adds together tests carried out with tests posted out. This distinction is too often elided during the presentation at the daily press conference, where the relevant figure may misleadingly be described simply as the number of tests carried out. There are no data on how many of the tests posted out are in fact then successfully completed."
Well worth a read
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Old 2nd Jun 2020, 12:46
  #7408 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
I believe that BCG was pretty much universal for my generation, I'm pretty sure that everyone I went to school with was vaccinated with it, as I remember the long line of us standing in the corridor outside the school nurse's office, shirts off, waiting with more than a little trepidation. I had the feeling at the time that it wasn't something that was optional, although I may be wrong.
My wife had immunity believed to have been acquired from her mother, who as a child on Anglesey, came into contact with friends with TB, but never got it herself. My wife passed this on to three of our four children. Dr WB627 immune as a child so no BCG at that time, had the vaccination administered only when he started to train as a doctor, as his immunity tests proved inconclusive twice.

Dr WB627 is the one who has had the corona virus...…. myth busted?



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Old 2nd Jun 2020, 12:57
  #7409 (permalink)  
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I always understood from my mum that she had TB around the time she had me; she vehemently denied it when she was in hospital shortly before she died - but she did seem to be heading down the dementia road by that point. Rest of the family don't seem to know.

Certainly remember having BCG when I was a child, also a fearsome 6 needle inoculation at some point in my childhood.
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Old 2nd Jun 2020, 14:09
  #7410 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Cornish Jack View Post
Not sure that your background is any more relevant than my own at 85 and putting up with the difficulties of lockdown.
You also have quite definitely confused me with your (apparently) admired 'Leader' whose stated ambition was to be 'King of the World'
My loyalty to my country remains intact despite efforts to undermine our government and particularly the prime minister when they are trying their best!
As an accident of Nature, it happens to be mine too! ... but I don't use it as an excuse for demonstrable National incompetence. It is always worth considering Dr Johnson's (the intelligent Johnson) dictum that "Nationalism is the last refuge of the scoundrel."
"He who loves his country well, also honours mercy" Bellini's I Puritani, Act 3 Riccardo and Giorgio.
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Old 2nd Jun 2020, 14:36
  #7411 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by treadigraph View Post
Certainly remember having BCG when I was a child, also a fearsome 6 needle inoculation at some point in my childhood.
Treadi....that 6 needle thing was the BCG, Left a scar that took decades to fade
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Old 2nd Jun 2020, 14:51
  #7412 (permalink)  
 
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"He who loves his country well, also honours mercy" Bellini's I Puritani, Act 3 Riccardo and Giorgio.
All very well but tell me this: "why are you known as pie eaters?"
As a woolly back I was just curious!
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Old 2nd Jun 2020, 16:21
  #7413 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
America is running a useful, if accidental, experiment right now. Thousands of people, gathered in close proximity to each other, shouting (so expelling viral particles pretty effectively if infected), in dozens of cities. If the virus is still around and can be transmitted from people gathered outside, then we should find out in a week or so. My guess is that we may see that even this level of close interaction outdoors doesn't present a big infection risk. If this is the case, then we can probably restart all outdoor events without much risk of making things worse.

If enough people have been arrested and held in jails, then that may also give some insight into the risk from indoor disease transmission. All told, these riots could provide us with very useful data over the next week or two.
Trouble is, they may get shot before the incubation period is over.
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Old 2nd Jun 2020, 19:00
  #7414 (permalink)  
 
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Not that he’s saying anything most people hadn’t already worked out....

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...says-uk-expert


Covid-19 spilling out of hospitals and care homes, says UK expert

Coronavirus infections in hospitals and care homes are spilling into the community and sustaining the outbreak to the point that cases will remain steady until September, a leading scientist has warned.

Prof Neil Ferguson, the head of the outbreak modelling group at Imperial College London, said he was shocked at how poorly care homes had been protected from the virus and that infections in UK care homes and hospitals were now feeding into the epidemic in the wider community.

Ferguson, who quit as a member of the government’s Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies (Sage) after breaking social-distancing rules, said that infected staff carrying the virus out of the workplace explained why the R value, the average number of people infected by a case, remained only marginally below one.

“I, like many people, am shocked about how badly European – or countries around the world – have protected care home populations,” Ferguson told a hearing of the Lords science committee. About 16,000 UK care home residents are believed to have died from Covid-19 in outbreaks that have struck 38% of care homes in England and 59% in Scotland.

”The infections in care homes and hospitals spill back into the community, more commonly through people who work in those institutions. If you can drive the infection rates low in those institutional settings, you drive the infection low in the community as a whole,” Ferguson said......

Last edited by ORAC; 2nd Jun 2020 at 19:10.
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Old 2nd Jun 2020, 19:51
  #7415 (permalink)  
 
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I wouldn’t take to much notice of Ferguson. He’s probably very keen to get himself back into the fold by making dramatic statements to get people to listen to him again. The numbers are actually reducing pretty steadily in care homes.
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Old 2nd Jun 2020, 20:03
  #7416 (permalink)  
 
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In a paper published in Physics of Fluids, from AIP Publishing, Talib Dbouk and Dimitris Drikakis discovered that with even a slight breeze of 4 kph, saliva travels 18 feet in 5 seconds.
That is completely unsurprising, as 18 feet in 5 seconds IS 4kph.

What is surprising is that a Scientific paper published in Physics of Fluids is required to reveal the blindingly obvious fact that light droplets suspended in moving air travel with the moving air at the very same speed.
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Old 2nd Jun 2020, 21:51
  #7417 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Not that he’s saying anything most people hadn’t already worked out....

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...says-uk-expert


Covid-19 spilling out of hospitals and care homes, says UK expert

Coronavirus infections in hospitals and care homes are spilling into the community and sustaining the outbreak to the point that cases will remain steady until September, a leading scientist has warned.

Prof Neil Ferguson, the head of the outbreak modelling group at Imperial College London, said he was shocked at how poorly care homes had been protected from the virus and that infections in UK care homes and hospitals were now feeding into the epidemic in the wider community.

Ferguson, who quit as a member of the government’s Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies (Sage) after breaking social-distancing rules, said that infected staff carrying the virus out of the workplace explained why the R value, the average number of people infected by a case, remained only marginally below one.

“I, like many people, am shocked about how badly European – or countries around the world – have protected care home populations,” Ferguson told a hearing of the Lords science committee. About 16,000 UK care home residents are believed to have died from Covid-19 in outbreaks that have struck 38% of care homes in England and 59% in Scotland.

”The infections in care homes and hospitals spill back into the community, more commonly through people who work in those institutions. If you can drive the infection rates low in those institutional settings, you drive the infection low in the community as a whole,” Ferguson said......
I had this conversation with Dr WB627 yesterday but not for the first time. If the staff had been provided with PPE suitable for this virus not rubbish surgical masks, many infections could have been avoided.

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Old 3rd Jun 2020, 00:36
  #7418 (permalink)  
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The possibility of a 60's type vaccination protecting against Covid - 19 is intriguing, for me, only because it ties in with my recent link where the current virus somehow bypasses the immune system while deep in the lung and until it makes its way elsewhere. It might just give the kick-start needed during that vulnerable period.

Talking of our personal historic infections. I had measles in 1959 and only recently learned that it seems to wipe out any immune system memory one has built up. It tied in with a tendency to 'catch everything going' for a while. I wonder what it would do to folk that have had Covid.
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Old 3rd Jun 2020, 08:18
  #7419 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Slaine View Post
Treadi....that 6 needle thing was the BCG, Left a scar that took decades to fade
The six-needle thing was the multiple-puncture turberculin skin test https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tine_test - also see Heaf Test.
If there was a negative reaction to the test then the BCG vaccine was administered, that was the one that left the scar - although it didn't leave me with one for some reason.
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Old 3rd Jun 2020, 08:24
  #7420 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Karearea View Post
The six-needle thing was the multiple-puncture turberculin skin test https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tine_test - also see Heaf Test.
If there was a negative reaction to the test then the BCG vaccine was administered, that was the one that left the scar - although it didn't leave me with one for some reason.
I remember that! And I’ve still got a 1/2 cm dimple scar from my BCG. it was actually quite a painful jab as I recall.
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