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Coronavirus: The Thread

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Coronavirus: The Thread

Old 29th May 2020, 13:42
  #7281 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sallyann1234 View Post
Any spacing distance is arbitrary and meaningless.
Indoors, airborne droplets will circulate around the room. Outdoors they will blow around. If you can smell particles of tobacco smoke drifting many metres away, why wouldn't the virus be travelling just as far?
Good point - but does the concentration of virus particles have an impact too? If they’re more scattered and diluted in moving air, does that mean one’s immune system can combat them better than a more concentrated dose in static air?


And a completely different observation. I am really impressed that all politicians - except BoJo - are clearly lucky enough to have decent hairdressers/barbers in their close family. Unlike the rest of us, none of them seem to be needing a hair cut, even after all this time.
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Old 29th May 2020, 14:19
  #7282 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sallyann1234 View Post
Any spacing distance is arbitrary and meaningless.
Indoors, airborne droplets will circulate around the room. Outdoors they will blow around. If you can smell particles of tobacco smoke drifting many metres away, why wouldn't the virus be travelling just as far?
Apparently not.

The research behind the social distancing guidelines came from data collected from the airline scenario.

That is, a known infection can be traced by row and seat number. How far it spread to other rows and seat numbers was then traced and measured.
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Old 29th May 2020, 14:27
  #7283 (permalink)  
 
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If that’s true, currawong, then 2m is an even more arbitrary benchmark; circulation in an airliner cabin is entirely different to that elsewhere
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Old 29th May 2020, 14:35
  #7284 (permalink)  
 
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If you have another scenario where known individuals are a known distance apart and transmission or not is recorded there are some people that want to talk to you.....
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Old 29th May 2020, 14:38
  #7285 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by currawong View Post
Apparently not.

The research behind the social distancing guidelines came from data collected from the airline scenario.

That is, a known infection can be traced by row and seat number. How far it spread to other rows and seat numbers was then traced and measured.
I don't think your airline scenario answers SallyAnne's point, a point with which I agree. In an aircraft the cabin conditioning airflow will be well mapped and the air filtered continually. When smoking was permitted people nearby could smell the smoke.

At our post van a few weeks ago a woman was Vapping. Her vap stream was visible about 4-5 metres down wind. As well as dissipating it also appeared to descend. Had it been more windy the stream would have dissipated more quickly but spread further. Anyone the plume woukd have sensed it; in light wind the sensation would have been apparent for longer.
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Old 29th May 2020, 14:41
  #7286 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by BehindBlueEyes View Post
Good point - but does the concentration of virus particles have an impact too? If they’re more scattered and diluted in moving air, does that mean one’s immune system can combat them better than a more concentrated dose in static air?
What's not known for sure is just how many viral particles have to come into contact with someone's respiratory tract for them to become infected. The number is almost certainly greater than one, and probably somewhere between a few hundred and a few thousand. This needs to be put into the context of how many viral particles are being expired by someone that's infective, though, as that sets the likely concentration available at any instant. It seems that someone infective may cough out a few tens of millions of viral particles with each cough, somewhat less from just exhaled breath.

There's some evidence from SARS and MERS (both caused by broadly similar coronaviruses) that the severity of symptoms may be related to the magnitude of the initial infection. It's not clear if this applies to SARS-CoV-2, but it seems it may do. This may mean that those exposed to a higher initial infective dose may go on to suffer more serious disease, but so much depends on other factors, like age, immune system variations between individuals, underlying health etc, that it's probably really difficult to quantify this effect.

In terms of staying safe, it makes sense to do as much as you can to reduce the chance of infection, by adopting appropriate measures for the circumstances, along with minimising the length of time you may be exposed to infection. The higher infection risk situations are ones where you might be sat close to someone for a long time, say in an aircraft, train or bus, the lower infection risk situations are ones like a quick transaction in a shop, passing someone whilst walking or cycling, etc. Even social distancing is going to be significantly less safe for situations like people stood talking for long periods whilst indoors. The other time-related point is that someone infective stood or sat in the same place for a length of time is likely to deposit a higher concentration of viral particles on all the surfaces around them, than someone who is only in one spot for a shorter period of time. Touching surfaces and transferring viral particles to the face of a recipient is probably the only risk factor that is not time-dependent, and can happen in seconds.
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Old 29th May 2020, 15:00
  #7287 (permalink)  
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Well I’m afraid those complaining that governments, especially in the UK, aren’t giving black and white comprehensive guidance on what the6 can or cannot do will have to get used to making their own decisions as people start having to live - and work - with Covid until a vaccine comes along......

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/p...arro-d50hr9k97

People must judge coronavirus risks themselves, says WHO envoy

The World Health Organisation’s coronavirus chief has warned that the infection has “not gone away” and people must decide for themselves which risks to take as lockdown is eased.

David Nabarro, the agency’s special envoy on the virus, said that people would have to get used to social distancing in the long term and make up their own minds about whether they were willing to take risks such as hugging grandchildren later in the summer.......

He told Today on Radio 4: “What was happening through the lockdown was that a very large amount of illness was prevented from becoming totally catastrophic right across the country and the outbreaks that did occur subsided and were contained. Now we have to keep them at the minimum possible level by being on constant defence and at the same time by being very focused on where, if it is necessary, to have further movement restrictions where these are put in place.”

He said that in a “different normal” from now on “we will have to be more respectful when it comes to how we relate to other people, particularly in very confined spaces where we know this virus can easily transmit”.

The replacement of a simple “stay at home” message with more nuanced advice to stay alert has been criticised as confusing, but Dr Nabarro said in the next phase that vulnerable people would have to rely more on their own judgment than blanket rules.

“I think people will have to make their own choices about the level of risk that they want to take,” he said. “I think it is really important that, in the next few months, all of us make sense of what we know about this virus and the risks, and then we ourselves, with support from our friends and from, of course, public health authorities, are able to make choices that will enable us to live with this virus as a threat and at the same time get on with life.”

Dr Nabarro said that he was one of a million clinically vulnerable people told to “shield” indefinitely and wanted to see his family. When it comes to grandchildren, however, he said: “I think it will be seeing at a distance. It won’t be close hugs straight away.”.......





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Old 29th May 2020, 15:12
  #7288 (permalink)  
 
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I agree, but for people to think for themselves, and properly assess risk, they need far more information, from reliable sources, than they seem to be getting. I still can't see why the BBC hasn't really got to grips with producing some easy to understand educational stuff, as I believe it does still have an educational remit as a part of its charter. It's not easy to get stuff like this conveyed clearly, such that most people can understand how they need to assess the risk, but repeated, short, public information videos, disseminated on as many communication channels as possible, might well make a useful contribution.
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Old 29th May 2020, 15:19
  #7289 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
I agree, but for people to think for themselves, and properly assess risk, they need far more information, from reliable sources, than they seem to be getting. I still can't see why the BBC hasn't really got to grips with producing some easy to understand educational stuff, as I believe it does still have an educational remit as a part of its charter. It's not easy to get stuff like this conveyed clearly, such that most people can understand how they need to assess the risk, but repeated, short, public information videos, disseminated on as many communication channels as possible, might well make a useful contribution.
To get educational stuff through to much of the population it would have to be pitched at a "Newsround", or even in some cases a "Play School" level to make any impact.

We were walking in one of the large parks in Derby yesterday afternoon, clearly terms people don't understand are terms like "immediate family", "household" and "social distancing". Perhaps they were all acting on their own instinct.
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Old 29th May 2020, 15:24
  #7290 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator View Post
At our post van a few weeks ago a woman was Vapping. Her vap stream was visible about 4-5 metres down wind. As well as dissipating it also appeared to descend. Had it been more windy the stream would have dissipated more quickly but spread further. Anyone the plume woukd have sensed it; in light wind the sensation would have been apparent for longer.
Funny you should mention that. A few weeks back I went to our local petrol station to get some fuel for the mower. On the way back someone cycle across the road some distance ahead of me, clearly vaping as they went. I clearly smelt the vapour as I drove past. It did make me wonder how easy it would be to inhale someone else's breath even when in what one would imagine to be an extremely very safe situation/environment i.e. driving alone in one's own car with the windows up.
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Old 29th May 2020, 15:30
  #7291 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
To get educational stuff through to much of the population it would have to be pitched at a "Newsround", or even in some cases a "Play School" level to make any impact.

We were walking in one of the large parks in Derby yesterday afternoon, clearly terms people don't understand are terms like "immediate family", "household" and "social distancing". Perhaps they were all acting on their own instinct.
A revamped Jeremy Kyle Show would probably be best for most people: "Sharon, your neighbours allege you loitered for longer than 15 minutes in the presence of this man. Would you like to see your test result?"
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Old 29th May 2020, 15:32
  #7292 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by dead_pan View Post
Funny you should mention that. A few weeks back I went to our local petrol station to get some fuel for the mower. On the way back someone cycle across the road some distance ahead of me, clearly vaping as they went. I clearly smelt the vapour as I drove past. It did make me wonder how easy it would be to inhale someone else's breath even when in what one would imagine to be an extremely very safe situation/environment i.e. driving alone in one's own car with the windows up.
OK in a Tesla Model S or X, just fit "Bioweapon defense mode" (I jest not, it's a HEPA filter for the cabin air): https://jalopnik.com/can-a-teslas-bi...-th-1841918804

Sadly this isn't an option for my Model 3, it seems the filter is just too large to be able to fit in the limited space where the pollen filters normally slot in.
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Old 29th May 2020, 15:37
  #7293 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
OK in a Tesla Model S or X, just fit "Bioweapon defense mode" (I jest not, it's a HEPA filter for the cabin air): https://jalopnik.com/can-a-teslas-bi...-th-1841918804

Sadly this isn't an option for my Model 3, it seems the filter is just too large to be able to fit in the limited space where the pollen filters normally slot in.
Yes, my son has been urging me to invest in a Model S, for my own and his safety of course...
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Old 29th May 2020, 15:39
  #7294 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
To get educational stuff through to much of the population it would have to be pitched at a "Newsround", or even in some cases a "Play School" level to make any impact.
Should still be possible to produce some very short (i.e. OK for those with the attention span of a goldfish) videos covering key points, though. Just basic stuff can make a very real difference, starting with ways to be safer without using masks, gloves etc. I mentioned before that we tried to do this back in the Cold War era with nuclear "safety" information, and we used to have regular public service broadcasts about health related stuff years ago. I'm pretty sure we've even had public service broadcasts about precautions during foot and mouth, although not for the last large outbreak (I seem to remember something when I was young about this, probably the 1967 outbreak).
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Old 29th May 2020, 15:45
  #7295 (permalink)  
 
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Cracks are showing...


Sage member questions easing of lockdown in England

A scientist on the UK government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) has suggested he does not agree with easing the lockdown at this stage.

In a briefing to health journalists Prof John Edmunds, from the London School of Tropical Hygiene and Medicine, said that 8,000 new infections a day in England, as calculated by the Office for National Statistics, was “a very high incidence” level.

"Many of us would prefer to see incidence down to lower levels before we relax measures," he said.

He said that with an "untested" test and trace system "we are taking some risk here" and "even if we keep it flat, that’s still quite a level".

“Lifting the lockdown is a political decision. Lifting it now, means we’re keeping incidence at this level," he added.
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Old 29th May 2020, 15:52
  #7296 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
Should still be possible to produce some very short (i.e. OK for those with the attention span of a goldfish) videos covering key points, though. Just basic stuff can make a very real difference, starting with ways to be safer without using masks, gloves etc. I mentioned before that we tried to do this back in the Cold War era with nuclear "safety" information, and we used to have regular public service broadcasts about health related stuff years ago. I'm pretty sure we've even had public service broadcasts about precautions during foot and mouth, although not for the last large outbreak (I seem to remember something when I was young about this, probably the 1967 outbreak).
I was very impressed with the way 538's cartoon-strip on pandemic modelling laid things out in bite-size pieces.

A Comic Strip Tour Of The Wild World Of Pandemic Modeling
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...emic-modeling/
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Old 29th May 2020, 16:29
  #7297 (permalink)  
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Dead_pan, in our new car we were encouraged to switch air con to recirculation. It saves energy. It obviously has other benefits too.

~~~~~~~~~~

There is lots of mention of the distance a cough can project particles and a mask can reduce. Until you have experienced a dry hacking cough, such as I had at Christmas, you have no idea. This was no 'suppressed social cough' , this was the whole deal, cough cough cough, retching cough, a bent double cough with perhaps less than 20 seconds to the next round.
​​​

Last edited by Pontius Navigator; 29th May 2020 at 17:20.
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Old 29th May 2020, 16:51
  #7298 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator View Post
Dead_pan, in our new car we were encouraged to switch air con to recirculation. It saves energy...
The compressor is still working pretty much as hard as with direct air. Any fractional difference to the typical load of around 2 kW which the aircon presents to the engine is hardly going to change anything. Turning the A/C off is the best way to make a small fuel saving.

Certainly, recirculation should remove most of the fresh incoming air, but not all; have you noticed how you can still clearly smell smoke when driving though it with recirculation set? I certainly have in every car I have tried to shut out smoke using recirculation. That means 'fresh' air is still getting in, albeit at a lower rate than on direct / fresh.
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Old 29th May 2020, 17:20
  #7299 (permalink)  
 
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cough cough cough, retching cough, a bent double cough with perhaps less than 20 seconds to the next one
From personal experience, that is a really wretched situation ... makes any bed feel like a waterbed for the person sharing it! But seriously, it sounds more like a paroxysmal cough ... though I'm no medic, just had this myself..
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Old 29th May 2020, 17:22
  #7300 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Alsacienne View Post
From personal experience, that is a really wretched situation ... makes any bed feel like a waterbed for the person sharing it! But seriously, it sounds more like a paroxysmal cough ... though I'm no medic, just had this myself..
if Covid is not as bad what's the problem? My cough lasted for about 4 weeks though the violence subsided in about a week.
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