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Coronavirus: The Thread

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Coronavirus: The Thread

Old 27th May 2020, 16:29
  #7201 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Barksdale Boy View Post
In Hong Kong there is no "law demanding masks".
Wasn't the wearing of masks outlawed by one of the Chinese government measures to attempt to stop the Extradition Law protests?
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Old 27th May 2020, 16:53
  #7202 (permalink)  
 
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No - you're confusing it with the British Govt telling people not to wear masks because they were "useless" when we all know the reason was they had about 35 for the whole NHS
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Old 27th May 2020, 17:31
  #7203 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by double_barrel View Post
Human infective virus is capable of infecting humans and therefore must be engineered!!! Absolute nonsense.
Not sure that that is entirely the argument that is being made. As I understand it, their argument is that if you sample a pathogen at (or just after) a host-shift, you expect to see an intermediate specificity, with infection being moderately efficient in both the old and new host. If you see an infection mechanism that is highly adapted (and specific) to the new host, then it suggests that either the pathogen has a much longer history with the 'new' host than you thought. The exception might be if it is recombinant, but that would have a genetic signature of its own. It seems like a reasonable question to ask, but from the brief look that I have had at the pre-print server, it isn't a question they have fully addressed.

Incidentally, I really hate this practice that seems to have become common over recent years of people putting unreviewed work online and issuing a press release about it. The press can't be expected to make an informed judgement on the merit of the work and shouldn't have to.
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Old 27th May 2020, 19:09
  #7204 (permalink)  
 
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There seems to be a few flaws in the initial track and trace app, minus the NHS app part of the process, if the DM has got it right,

I go to the shop doing the social distancing thing but pick the virus up from contact trace off trolley/basket handles or from handled goods and then get symptoms, according to the flow chart I follow the process illustrated in the link:

1. Self-isolate for 7 days/household for 14 days

2. Book a test

3. If negative, household stops isolating immediately, and I stop after symptoms have gone

So far that could be considered ok, where it starts going wrong is if the test is positive as you then have to share contacts, what contacts? all the ones in my phone who I have not been anywhere near or seen most since this started, or am I supposed to know everybody who was in the shop at the same time as me, or those that transferred the virus to an object who had just left before I got there and I am also supposed to know their mobile phone numbers as well, conversely maybe I should ask everybody in the shop for their phone number before they leave.

If the app picks up other nearby phone numbers via Bluetooth how is that recorded so I can pass those details on, if someone can explain what part I have got wrong so I can make sure my family know how it will actually work. This seems to assume that everyone has a phone and it is compatible with the app, that those people will load and use it, unless they are going to get mobile phone service providers to load the app as an update to everyone’s phones, and I cannot see that going down well with the majority of people, on the face of it I cannot see how this is going to make a difference.


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...T-NHS-app.html
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Old 27th May 2020, 19:27
  #7205 (permalink)  
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Ex Rigger, that is clearly ludicrous. Many people you meet will not be on your contact list. Assuming some our you have to pass the details to the tracers, how?

If you have a bad dose I can assure you that speaking to anyone, let alone a tracer, is that last thing on your mind. I had something very like CV. It is now difficult to remember the sequence but I think I was tired and felt the need to rest. Then I was cold and piled bedding on, then I was hot. When I got up 5 days later, it was then like being in a fog.

Forget any active participation once the bug bites.
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Old 27th May 2020, 19:40
  #7206 (permalink)  
 
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Ex Rigger, that is clearly ludicrous. Many people you meet will not be on your contact list. Assuming some our you have to pass the details to the tracers, how?
PN, thanks for your response, when my daughter does not understand the process and thinks she is going to get a text/message out of the blue telling her she has to go home and isolate for 14 days then if she gets symptoms book a test, if negative carry on as before, if positive start an additional 7 day isolation, what it does not say is what of those she has been in 'contact' with it says nothing about her sending those contacts via the app, so are they not interested in the spread of the virus from this point on?

I can also understand from the symptoms you describe how the last thing on ones mind would be trying to fathom whose details to send and how.
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Old 27th May 2020, 20:04
  #7207 (permalink)  
 
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Exclamation

If an NHS Contact Tracer calls you... How do you know they are legitimate NHS staff? It would seem to open doors for scammers to have a field day!

Personally, I don't even answer a call unless I know who it is!
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Old 27th May 2020, 20:21
  #7208 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Asturias56 View Post
No - you're confusing it with the British Govt telling people not to wear masks because they were "useless" when we all know the reason was they had about 35 for the whole NHS
I don't believe I am confusing it. I seem to remember the government in either Hong Kong or Beijing banning the carrying of umbrellas and the wearing of face masks. The umbrellas were being used as a sort of badge of solidarity among the protesters and the masks were an attempt to stop the police identifying them.
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Old 27th May 2020, 20:30
  #7209 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Out Of Trim View Post
If an NHS Contact Tracer calls you... How do you know they are legitimate NHS staff? It would seem to open doors for scammers to have a field day!

Personally, I don't even answer a call unless I know who it is!
And there's the huge fly in the ointment. If I receive a call from the blue and don't recognise the number, I don't answer it. I get on the web and look for the number first. Chances are the number may come up on a forum somewhere, saying it is dodgy/insurance scams etc. If it doesn't appear in a search, I will wait to see if they call back. Scammers don't often make repeat calls. If they do call back, my first response is "Who are you"? Providing all goes well and I do end up speaking with someone claiming to be from the NHS and they were telling me to self-isolate my response may be rude, or not, depending on how I felt at the time, the attitude of the caller etc.
Here's an even bigger fly though. We are told over and over that nobody picks up any personal details about you via the App. If you believe that, then the call must be coming to you from a huge bingo game somewhere that just threw out your number! However, what about all the looney tunes out there? Get an App for free! Now press the button that admits to being Covid positive (regardless of the actuality). Mr Tracker Tracer calls to try to ascertain your contacts. Give them all your mates' contact details. Jolly wheeze, ha ha! Now have your mates take part etc etc. Chaos will ensue!
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Old 27th May 2020, 20:34
  #7210 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by KelvinD View Post
Mr Tracker Tracer calls to try to ascertain your contacts. Give them all your mates' contact details. Jolly wheeze, ha ha! Now have your mates take part etc etc. Chaos will ensue!
What's the betting that more than a few wags will choose to give them the name and address of a certain Islington resident, just as a jape?
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Old 27th May 2020, 20:59
  #7211 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by KelvinD View Post
Here's an even bigger fly though. We are told over and over that nobody picks up any personal details about you via the App. If you believe that, then the call must be coming to you from a huge bingo game somewhere that just threw out your number!
You are confusing contact tracers (people who manually identify close contacts of individuals who have positive tests), with a contact tracing app (which matches anonymous keys of individuals who self-report a positive test) with a locally stored list of keys on your own phone. You would not get a phone call as a result of a match on the app; just a locally generated alert (it is up to you whether you pay any regard to this information). In the case of being contacted by the former, you could choose to lie to them about your contacts but they would only ask for this if you have a positive test, at which point, lying to them may be a criminal offence...
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Old 27th May 2020, 21:32
  #7212 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Exrigger View Post
PN, thanks for your response, when my daughter does not understand the process and thinks she is going to get a text/message out of the blue telling her she has to go home and isolate for 14 days then if she gets symptoms book a test, if negative carry on as before, if positive start an additional 7 day isolation, what it does not say is what of those she has been in 'contact' with it says nothing about her sending those contacts via the app, so are they not interested in the spread of the virus from this point on?

I can also understand from the symptoms you describe how the last thing on ones mind would be trying to fathom whose details to send and how.
NHS contact tracing app: what is it and when can you download it?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technolo...s-track-trace/
If an individual later reports that they are positive for coronavirus, it will then ping a message to people who have been in close-contact with them in the last 28 days based on their anonymous IDs.

So you just need tell the app that you are now positive, and it will do the rest to inform your Bluetooth-contacts.
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Old 27th May 2020, 21:39
  #7213 (permalink)  
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https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...-to-tame-covid

Norway health chief: lockdown was not needed to tame Covid

Norway is assembling a picture of what happened before lockdown and its latest discovery is pretty significant. It is using observed data – hospital figures, infection numbers and so on – to construct a picture of what was happening in March. At the time, no one really knew. It was feared that virus was rampant with each person infecting two or three others – and only lockdown could get this exponential growth rate (the so-called R number) down to a safe level of 1. This was the hypothesis advanced in various graphs by Imperial College London for Britain, Norway and several European countries.

But the Norwegian public health authority has published a report with a striking conclusion: the virus was never spreading as fast as had been feared and was already on the way out when lockdown was ordered. ‘It looks as if the effective reproduction rate had already dropped to around 1.1 when the most comprehensive measures were implemented on 12 March, and that there would not be much to push it down below 1… We have seen in retrospect that the infection was on its way down........

This raises an awkward question: was lockdown necessary? What did it achieve that could not have been achieved by voluntary social distancing?

Camilla Stoltenberg, director of Norway’s public health agency, has
given an interview where she is candid about the implications of this discovery. ‘Our assessment now, and I find that there is a broad consensus in relation to the reopening, was that one could probably achieve the same effect – and avoid part of the unfortunate repercussions – by not closing. But, instead, staying open with precautions to stop the spread.’ This is important to admit, she says, because if the infection levels rise again – or a second wave hits in the winter – you need to be brutally honest about whether lockdown proved effective.

Norway’s statistics agency was also the first in the world to calculate the permanent damage inflicted by school closures: every week of classroom education denied to students, it found, stymies life chances and permanently lowers earnings potential. So a country should only enforce this draconian measure if it is sure that the academic foundation for lockdown was sound. And in Stoltenberg’s opinion, ‘the academic foundation was not good enough’ for lockdown this time.......

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Old 27th May 2020, 22:14
  #7214 (permalink)  
 
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Is 37,460 dead already not enough?

Cancer, transplant and asthma patients axed from shielding list by text message -

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/phone-text...143902576.html

Words fail me

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Old 28th May 2020, 00:19
  #7215 (permalink)  
 
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The HK government, not the PRC, brought in a law banning the wearing of masks; at whose behest is another matter. My point was that nobody is required by law to wear a mask in the HKSAR.
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Old 28th May 2020, 01:02
  #7216 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Exrigger View Post
If the app picks up other nearby phone numbers via Bluetooth how is that recorded so I can pass those details on, if someone can explain what part I have got wrong so I can make sure my family know how it will actually work. This seems to assume that everyone has a phone and it is compatible with the app, that those people will load and use it, unless they are going to get mobile phone service providers to load the app as an update to everyone’s phones, and I cannot see that going down well with the majority of people, on the face of it I cannot see how this is going to make a difference.
Yes, unfortunately, unless a lot of people install the apps, the apps won't help very much. Not sure exactly about the details of the NHS app, but generally for such apps it's not a requirement to rely on phone numbers or other personal information. In theory such apps would work even if you don't have a phone number (no SIM).

For example the apps using the Apple / Google APIs would just use Bluetooth to exchange randomly generated identifiers with other phones nearby. For privacy reasons the broadcast identifiers change every 15 minutes. Each phone would keep two lists: the random identifiers they generated, and the random identifiers they received from other phones through Bluetooth.

Then, when you are tested and confirmed as infected, you will receive a unique code from the medical authorities, a code that can only be used once. You will enter that code in the app, then you will be able to declare yourself infected in the app, so that the random identifiers generated by your phone can be uploaded on a server. You need that identifier to declare yourself infected in the app. This is to prevent people from falsely reporting themselves as infected, when they are not actually infected. As a joke to scare their friends for example.

Then periodically each phone will download the list random identifiers of the infected people from that server, will check in its list of collected identifiers for any matches, which would mean you have been near an infected person recently. If it finds a match the phone will let you know you have been near an infected person, so that you can get yourself tested. And for that the phone just need internet access, to download the list of infected random identifiers. It would work even on Wi-Fi. When you are infected, the upload also just needs internet access.

Of course that's just one way to do it. Another way would be to just upload all the identifiers collected via Bluetooth, possibly along with other information like phone numbers, locations, etc. to a central server, even for people that are not infected yet. Then, when you are infected, the app would communicate that to the server, which would take care of doing all the contact checks and notifying the people and possibly even the medical authorities.

But this centralized way of doing it is obviously very concerning regarding privacy. Because of that, Google and Apple will refuse to publish on their app stores any apps that use their APIs, and attempt to collect more information than is strictly needed to be able to notify people that they have been near infected persons recently. An intrusive app, such that the one I described above, wouldn't be accepted. Some governments are already angry they are not allowed to collect as much information as they wanted, if they want to use the Apple/Google APIs.
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Old 28th May 2020, 03:49
  #7217 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...-to-tame-covid

Norway health chief: lockdown was not needed to tame Covid

Norway is assembling a picture of what happened before lockdown and its latest discovery is pretty significant. It is using observed data – hospital figures, infection numbers and so on – to construct a picture of what was happening in March. At the time, no one really knew. It was feared that virus was rampant with each person infecting two or three others – and only lockdown could get this exponential growth rate (the so-called R number) down to a safe level of 1. This was the hypothesis advanced in various graphs by Imperial College London for Britain, Norway and several European countries.

But the Norwegian public health authority has published a report with a striking conclusion: the virus was never spreading as fast as had been feared and was already on the way out when lockdown was ordered. ‘It looks as if the effective reproduction rate had already dropped to around 1.1 when the most comprehensive measures were implemented on 12 March, and that there would not be much to push it down below 1… We have seen in retrospect that the infection was on its way down........

This raises an awkward question: was lockdown necessary? What did it achieve that could not have been achieved by voluntary social distancing?

Camilla Stoltenberg, director of Norway’s public health agency, has
given an interview where she is candid about the implications of this discovery. ‘Our assessment now, and I find that there is a broad consensus in relation to the reopening, was that one could probably achieve the same effect – and avoid part of the unfortunate repercussions – by not closing. But, instead, staying open with precautions to stop the spread.’ This is important to admit, she says, because if the infection levels rise again – or a second wave hits in the winter – you need to be brutally honest about whether lockdown proved effective.

Norway’s statistics agency was also the first in the world to calculate the permanent damage inflicted by school closures: every week of classroom education denied to students, it found, stymies life chances and permanently lowers earnings potential. So a country should only enforce this draconian measure if it is sure that the academic foundation for lockdown was sound. And in Stoltenberg’s opinion, ‘the academic foundation was not good enough’ for lockdown this time.......
Of course Norway could have controlled infection without lockdown.

Just as Sweden did.

The rate of fatalities would have been ten times higher though, like in Sweden.

Where they are wishing they had locked down...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...epidemiologist
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Old 28th May 2020, 05:20
  #7218 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by KelvinD View Post
I don't believe I am confusing it. I seem to remember the government in either Hong Kong or Beijing banning the carrying of umbrellas and the wearing of face masks. The umbrellas were being used as a sort of badge of solidarity among the protesters and the masks were an attempt to stop the police identifying them.
Short memories - that was what I was referring to - and the Covid rules now require a mask in company.
Now the protests are taking place in masks again - kind of Catch22
Good luck down there anyway.
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Old 28th May 2020, 06:45
  #7219 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Recc View Post
You are confusing contact tracers (people who manually identify close contacts of individuals who have positive tests), with a contact tracing app (which matches anonymous keys of individuals who self-report a positive test) with a locally stored list of keys on your own phone. You would not get a phone call as a result of a match on the app; just a locally generated alert (it is up to you whether you pay any regard to this information). In the case of being contacted by the former, you could choose to lie to them about your contacts but they would only ask for this if you have a positive test, at which point, lying to them may be a criminal offence...
I don't believe I am confusing anything. As far as I can tell, there is no "locally generated alert". How could that work if your contacts are merely down to a Bluetooth data swap between 2 unrelated phones that just happen to be "ships passing in the night"?
I recognise there would be no phone call as a result of a match on the app. The process kicks off when the sufferer notifies the app that they have symptoms. The app, once you notify NHS of your symptoms, allows the upload of contact data, stored as you say on your phone and the NHS tracers set off the contact tracing work. Then comes the phone call (in theory)

I believe the local comparison of keys applies to the non-centralised version (Apple & Google). With that system, the locally generated alert will happen. The NHS system is a centralised version and relies on data (the same locally stored keys) being sent, by you, to a central facility where your data etc is analysed and contacting begins.
Boris hedged around the issue of enforcing the rules via legal sanctions yesterday but not to worry; Matt Hancock said we must comply, it is our civic duty. In the case I postulated, I don't think civic duty would feature largely in their thoughts.
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Old 28th May 2020, 07:10
  #7220 (permalink)  
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https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c...hdog-fg38zmjkj

Coronavirus: Shop-bought kits taken off shelves for being unreliable

Superdrug is among retailers that have stopped selling a home coronavirus antibody test after the medicines watchdog said that it could give false results.

Laboratories have been told to stop processing commercial antibody kits that use finger-prick blood sampling to determine if someone has had the virus. The Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) said that the process had not been validated for Covid-19 tests so results from home kits should be ignored.

Kits made by Abbott have been approved by Public Health England (PHE) to use for frontline health and care workers, where a blood sample is taken from a vein. The kits for home use are available online and buyers are instructed to prick their finger using a pin and to collect a few drops of blood in a vial that is sealed and delivered to an authorised lab for testing. Health officials are now questioning whether home samples are as accurate as those taken in a surgery or hospital and are advising against the sale of kits until a conclusion has been reached.

Graeme Tunbridge, director of devices at the MHRA, said: “Patient safety and public health are our main priorities — and it is in the interests of everyone for antibody tests to be as reliable and meaningful as they can be. There are several UK providers of testing services who offer Covid-19 antibody testing. We are asking all providers of laboratory-based Covid-19 antibody testing services using capillary blood collected by a finger prick to temporarily stop providing this service until home collection of this sample type has been properly validated for use with these laboratory tests”.

“Use of unvalidated sample types may lead to unreliable results and as such we are working closely with the service providers, laboratories and test manufacturers to resolve the regulatory and patient safety issues. People who have purchased one of these sampling kits, and received an antibody test result, should not consider the result to be reliable and should not take any action on it. This does not affect rapid point-of-care tests or laboratory tests performed using venous blood.”

According to industry sources private antibody testing has been suspended while health officials assess the effectiveness of home pin-prick sampling for widespread government use.

Superdrug, Lloyds Pharmacy and the private GP service Doctorcall are among the providers who stopped selling the kits last week on instruction from the MHRA......
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