Go Back  PPRuNe Forums > PPRuNe Social > Jet Blast
Reload this Page >

Coronavirus: The Thread

Jet Blast Topics that don't fit the other forums. Rules of Engagement apply.

Coronavirus: The Thread

Old 24th May 2020, 19:44
  #7141 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Ilmington, Warwickshire
Posts: 132
Originally Posted by Mr Optimistic View Post
It's going to be odd. On one hand public tolerance of lockdown is begining to fray at the edges, on the other, the especially vulnerable and risk averse will be reluctant to get out and mix it.
​​​it. The mejaa and the politically rabid will be doing their bit to make it all worse.

It’s interesting how much the general public are becoming so polarised over lockdown vs release - if that’s the right term?

There’s a screaming hoard element who constantly post images of crying key workers and people on beaches and rant about we’re all going to die and they don’t care about the economy because they would, “rather end up poor than dead!” and “Lives are more important than money!”

Then there’s the more pragmatic group who recognise there’s got to be some form of sensible compromise and that the consequences of a continuing lockdown will have far reaching implications for long term health and that we will have to learn to live with this virus and adjust our lives accordingly.

I made the mistake of engaging with one of the former, who accused me of essentially wanting to murder the vulnerable because I suggested that it might be time to get the country working again. She didn’t seem to understand the basic laws of economics and how the NHS, benefits, care of the elderly was actually funded by taxes generated by people working and that eventually the money would run out. Her idea of solving the unemployment caused by Covid was, “ to give them all the vacancies left by the dead” Rather an interesting approach I thought - especially when 30k of the fatalities were over 75, so presumably, not in gainful occupations? This poor woman was seriously terrified at the thought of leaving her house and seemed convinced she would be struck down as soon as she ventured out. She slightly lost my sympathy by concluding with, “I hope you get Covid, then you’ll be sorry!” Rather a curious approach from someone who had started off her dialogue concerned about the need to save lives.
BehindBlueEyes is offline  
Old 24th May 2020, 19:57
  #7142 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2020
Location: Norfolk
Posts: 0
Originally Posted by BehindBlueEyes View Post
Then there’s the more pragmatic group who recognise there’s got to be some form of sensible compromise and that the consequences of a continuing lockdown will have far reaching implications for long term health and that we will have to learn to live with this virus and adjust our lives accordingly.
Given that Covid is likely to be around for months if not years, that there is no vaccine at present, and that the present arrangements are economically (and possibly politically) unsustainable, sooner or later we're going to have to adapt to living with the virus rather than hiding from it.
Kev Agamemnon is offline  
Old 24th May 2020, 22:02
  #7143 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Hampshire
Age: 73
Posts: 796
care of the elderly was actually funded by taxes generated by people working
And they were the people that funded it. Or do you think the elderly were born elderly and therefore didn't make any contribution?
(Incidentally, I belong to the pragmatic group in your 3rd paragraph.)
KelvinD is offline  
Old 24th May 2020, 22:23
  #7144 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Ilmington, Warwickshire
Posts: 132
Originally Posted by KelvinD View Post
And they were the people that funded it. Or do you think the elderly were born elderly and therefore didn't make any contribution?
(Incidentally, I belong to the pragmatic group in your 3rd paragraph.)
Whoops! - good point! I should have said, “funded by all those that have paid taxes”
BehindBlueEyes is offline  
Old 25th May 2020, 00:42
  #7145 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: apogee
Age: 65
Posts: 59
It does seem that cautious behavior (distance, masks when appropriate) is eroding as the weather gets better and there are pushes from various bases to give little weight to the precautions. Admittedly this is mostly from American media reporting, but there are some troubling scenes from beach areas in the holiday weekend run up. Patience is running thinner.
meadowrun is offline  
Old 25th May 2020, 02:54
  #7146 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Japan
Posts: 730
When it comes to Covert-19, do not mention the word conspiracy, please.
jolihokistix is online now  
Old 25th May 2020, 05:52
  #7147 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Peripatetic
Posts: 10,520
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-...ronavirus.html

Anti-viral drug remdesivir effective against coronavirus, study finds

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-...fit-death.html

Hydroxychloroquine shows no virus benefit, raises death risk: study

ORAC is online now  
Old 25th May 2020, 06:10
  #7148 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Japan
Posts: 730
Look at the last line of the first study: " the result is just below the statistical reliability threshold, meaning it could be down to chance rather than the capability of the drug."
jolihokistix is online now  
Old 25th May 2020, 06:41
  #7149 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Peripatetic
Posts: 10,520
I doubt many, if any, of the newly introduced treatments against Covid have been researched to the level of 5 Sigma confidence.....
ORAC is online now  
Old 25th May 2020, 07:03
  #7150 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Peripatetic
Posts: 10,520
https://www.politico.eu/article/bist...irus-lockdown/

Bistro to bust: Brussels’ restaurants fear (sanitized) ‘new normal’
ORAC is online now  
Old 25th May 2020, 07:40
  #7151 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Manchester, UK
Posts: 1,923
“Actually funded by taxes..”. Clearly they paid their share, and your main point is 100%valid. But the idea it went into a fund somewhere for future benefits is nonsense. There’s no crock of gold; Without current contributions, ie. without restarting the economy, there’s no money for pensions. Or nurses. Or any of the other things taken for granted by the “stay home forever” crew, some of whom regard this as an indefinite paid holiday.
ShotOne is online now  
Old 25th May 2020, 07:57
  #7152 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: There and here
Posts: 1,910
The whole funding mirage could be described as a "just in time" model. Not only is there no crock of gold to be utilised in these times, but a crock of ...... It's now so far in minus that our great grandchildren will be on the hook. As a nation, those who still have jobs need to be back earning and paying taxes as soon as possible. Precautions need to be taken to safeguard lives, but the economy needs to get going again or all the state pensions will dry up and the consequences for many would not be favourable.
SpringHeeledJack is offline  
Old 25th May 2020, 09:26
  #7153 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: London
Posts: 384
Gosh, maybe on another forum , apologies, but didn't anyone else see numbskull Johnson last night ? We know at 5ft 9ins and 175 kg he had underlying conditions when self inflicting (was I the only one watching him bump into everyone on the internal staircase of nbr 10 ). he. last night, displayed under- lieing conditions. What a sad day for British politics . Complete, untrustworthy buffoon leading a once proud Nation.

According to BJ, Cummings displayed "natural concern ". Other Citizens, displaying the same sentiment were barred from even holding hands with dieing family members.

I am now going to express natural concern for my own health, physical and mental . Off to the Beaches ; don't give a stuff.
slowjet is offline  
Old 25th May 2020, 09:33
  #7154 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Location: Scotland
Age: 39
Posts: 13
Originally Posted by jolihokistix View Post
Look at the last line of the first study: " the result is just below the statistical reliability threshold, meaning it could be down to chance rather than the capability of the drug."

It is a bit more complicated than that. The study (available open access at NEJM) reports a number of statistical tests. Median time to recovery was highly significantly differentiated between placebo/ treatment groups, as was the clinical assessment of improvement in symptoms at day 15. The mortality rates were slightly below (the 5%) significance threshold but that seems likely to be due to the relatively low levels of mortality overall (32 vs 54) and thus the power to detect a difference rather than the magnitude of the effect.

Overall, the study is pretty convincing that the drug is an effective treatment. On a wider point, there is nothing magical about the 5% confidence threshold; a result can still be by chance if the test exceeds this and can be informative even if it doesn't. You need to look at the p-value in conjunction with the magnitude of the effect and the power of the test. It is not a binary outcome. The 5% threshold became accepted in scientific publications because the consequences of being wrong (and wasting money and time following up spurious results) was seen as more of a risk than incorrectly rejecting a true difference. You could certainly make the case that in an ongoing pandemic, the balance of these considerations changes substantially.
Recc is offline  
Old 25th May 2020, 09:43
  #7155 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: 5Y
Posts: 463
Originally Posted by Recc View Post
It is a bit more complicated than that. The study (available open access at NEJM) reports a number of statistical tests. Median time to recovery was highly significantly differentiated between placebo/ treatment groups, as was the clinical assessment of improvement in symptoms at day 15. The mortality rates were slightly below (the 5%) significance threshold but that seems likely to be due to the relatively low levels of mortality overall (32 vs 54) and thus the power to detect a difference rather than the magnitude of the effect.

Overall, the study is pretty convincing that the drug is an effective treatment. On a wider point, there is nothing magical about the 5% confidence threshold; a result can still be by chance if the test exceeds this and can be informative even if it doesn't. You need to look at the p-value in conjunction with the magnitude of the effect and the power of the test. It is not a binary outcome. The 5% threshold became accepted in scientific publications because the consequences of being wrong (and wasting money and time following up spurious results) was seen as more of a risk than incorrectly rejecting a true difference. You could certainly make the case that in an ongoing pandemic, the balance of these considerations changes substantially.

I would say that for Remdesivir there is strong evidence of a small effect. I am not especially excited about that, clearly it has some benefit but not much. We need new drugs with big effect, and I believe they are in the pipeline now.

People are often not clear about the difference between the size of the statistical significance and the size of the effect. They are totally different things.
double_barrel is offline  
Old 25th May 2020, 12:28
  #7156 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Elsewhere
Posts: 251
Originally Posted by slowjet View Post
Gosh, maybe on another forum , apologies, but didn't anyone else see numbskull Johnson last night ? We know at 5ft 9ins and 175 kg he had underlying conditions when self inflicting
I think you are getting your units confused 5'9" is 175 cm, I know he is overweight but there is no way he weighs 175 kg which is about 28 stone!
k3k3 is offline  
Old 26th May 2020, 00:08
  #7157 (permalink)  
Psychophysiological entity
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Tweet Rob_Benham Famous author. Well, slightly famous.
Age: 80
Posts: 4,865
Five-nine and 175 goes together, but the cfm not stones.

Worrying about the state of the nation's economy, I suppose there's no chance of getting MOL put in charge?

I started a thread on R&N about MOL's interview. I thought he was very good. Jet II said this:
I watched the MoL interview and have to say it was probably the best, most reasoned, most reasonable, view that I have seen on TV news for weeks. Made a refreshing change from all the hysteria from the usual suspects.
When I compare it with BJ's bumbling, it's like highly focussed light-energy.
Loose rivets is offline  
Old 26th May 2020, 03:53
  #7158 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Japan
Posts: 730
Visited the National Hospital, perhaps the largest in the area, this morning and noted some changes at last!

We were handed a pretty comprehensive 15-point check-list, had our temperatures taken, and were given a short talk. This was new.

The vast waiting room showed people sitting on separated numbered seats, skipping two each time. Back at the beginning of February and at the beginning of April we were all shoulder to shoulder. Now the line for bloods had taped intervals on the floor, and this too was new. Outside the Doctor's room, though, the corridor was as crowded as ever, with no allowance for physical spacing.

The Doc likes to chat, so when it was my turn I went in and casually mentioned the news item about zero deaths in our prefecture. "The last patient in this area has been released from hospital, too", he said. "We have not had a single Covid patient at this particular hospital anyway. We did have testing kits at the ready", (first I'd heard that) "but we never used them."

Naturally, the hospital was set up to redirect suspected patients to other testing stations, so in a way nothing to pat themselves on the back about.

So this is how Step One of the government's easing process feels like, and all we have to look forward to is Steps Two and Three, and whether or not during that time there will be a rebound and second wave.

Last edited by jolihokistix; 26th May 2020 at 10:07.
jolihokistix is online now  
Old 26th May 2020, 09:26
  #7159 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Cambridge UK
Posts: 165
Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-...ronavirus.html
Anti-viral drug remdesivir effective against coronavirus, study finds
...
]
This gives a headline figure of median recovery time reduced from 15 days to 11 days. Which suggests that the existing facilities (beds plus staff) might be able to handle a third more cases.
Peter H is offline  
Old 26th May 2020, 09:27
  #7160 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Ilmington, Warwickshire
Posts: 132
Death rates from Covid at their lowest for 6 weeks today.

Incidentally, the U.K. has now had the longest lockdown in the world.
BehindBlueEyes is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service - Do Not Sell My Personal Information

Copyright © 2018 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.