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Coronavirus: The Thread

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Coronavirus: The Thread

Old 21st May 2020, 12:55
  #7021 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Richard W View Post
The studies only compare outcomes given that you are affected badly enough to be hospitalised. Recent immigrant ancestry (which should imply worse adaptation to Britain) makes one more likely to be hospitalised, even after accounting for pre-existing health conditions.
Agreed, but my key point was to highlight the correlation = causation fallacy. When looking at data it's very easy to get suckered into believing something that is other than the data are really showing. For example, from this graph (taken from this site: Spurious Correlations ) one might assume that eating more cheese causes more people to die from getting tangled in their bedsheets:



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Old 21st May 2020, 14:09
  #7022 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
Agreed, but my key point was to highlight the correlation = causation fallacy.
Even the Romans had a term for that - post hoc ergo propter hoc - it's been around so long.
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Old 21st May 2020, 14:15
  #7023 (permalink)  
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The report identifies an equal outcome for all races who have been admitted to hospital. The later statistics I then posted should a marked correlation between admittance and fatality and diabetes. One place to look, then, is in the propensity amongst the BAME community to suffer from diabetes.

https://www.diabetes.org.uk/resource...he_uk_2010.pdf

Ethnicity

Type 2 diabetes is up to six times more common in people of South Asian descent and up to three times more common among people of African and African-Caribbean origin.

According to the Health Survey for England 2004, doctor-diagnosed diabetes is almost four times as prevalent in Bangladeshi men, and almost three times as prevalent in Pakistani and Indian men compared with men in the general population.

Among women, diabetes is more than five times as likely among Pakistani women, at least three times as likely in Bangladeshi and Black Caribbean women, and two-and-a-half times as likely in Indian women, compared with women in the general population.......

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Old 21st May 2020, 14:36
  #7024 (permalink)  
 
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What are the figures for those ethnicities within the countries/areas that they are traditionally from, I'm wondering if with the 'proper' diet the diabetes figures would be much lower.
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Old 21st May 2020, 14:45
  #7025 (permalink)  
 
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VP959: I believe I may have rumbled you, your real name is Mr Gain Sayer, right? How's that for a spot of nominative determinism? Over the last few days, I have noticed that, if I was to say, for example, "Today is Thursday", it would take you only a few minutes to come up with an argument, proving what I said was specious and there would be a slew of quotations to prove me wrong.
When I quoted a German doctor's experience of tracking contacts, you chose to dispute that.
Now I quote ONS statistics for Wiltshire & Hampshire and you immediately launch into a rambling correlation vs causation! Nowhere did I try to compare any causes or any correlation. And don't for goodness sake. come back with "Oh yes you did! Wiltshire v Hampshire figures". That was a tongue in cheek dig at what could be seen by some as a complacent attitude. I would have thought the figures for cases of Covid-19 and the number of deaths were stark enough.
PS It IS Thursday
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Old 21st May 2020, 14:46
  #7026 (permalink)  
 
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If being BAME is such a risk factor, how come we’re not seeing much higher proportional figures from Africa and the Indian subcontinent then?

In fact, the infection rate has been very low in the Caribbean too, although the fact that the nations are all individual islands and can quarantine easier is possibly a contributing factor,
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Old 21st May 2020, 14:52
  #7027 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by KelvinD View Post
PS It IS Thursday
Why make such a controversial statement? It's Friday already in Australia.
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Old 21st May 2020, 14:57
  #7028 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by KelvinD View Post
....
The German doctor at the heart of the German response in Stuttgart has said he began testing very early in the epidemic and, in addition to simple testing, he began a contact tracing regime. Have a guess how many contacts each patient was found to have? Between 80 & 90! So these poor trackers could have as many as 800,000 people to contact per day!
Is there any way we can read any details about this?
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Old 21st May 2020, 15:15
  #7029 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by KelvinD View Post
VP959: I believe I may have rumbled you, your real name is Mr Gain Sayer, right? How's that for a spot of nominative determinism? Over the last few days, I have noticed that, if I was to say, for example, "Today is Thursday", it would take you only a few minutes to come up with an argument, proving what I said was specious and there would be a slew of quotations to prove me wrong.
When I quoted a German doctor's experience of tracking contacts, you chose to dispute that.
Now I quote ONS statistics for Wiltshire & Hampshire and you immediately launch into a rambling correlation vs causation! Nowhere did I try to compare any causes or any correlation. And don't for goodness sake. come back with "Oh yes you did! Wiltshire v Hampshire figures". That was a tongue in cheek dig at what could be seen by some as a complacent attitude. I would have thought the figures for cases of Covid-19 and the number of deaths were stark enough.
PS It IS Thursday
Nothing at all to do with you.

It's about making assumptions from published data that may not be accurate, for a host of reasons. Plucking a few numbers from somewhere and using them to reinforce a strongly held belief has to be open to question, whoever does it. Boris Johnson was quite rightly challenged for putting a slogan on the side of a bus stating that the UK would save £350m/day from Brexit, and so should anyone else who chooses to use data to make a point without taking care to ensure that it would pass a reality check.

To answer the question, this specific quote:
Meanwhile, I wouldn't be too complacent; it looks as though, if you catch Covid in Wiltshire, you have a fifty-fifty chance of ending up dead!
clearly stated that if someone is infected with Covid-19 in Wiltshire they have a 50% chance of dying. The fact is that the data don't support this view. In order to be able to draw any conclusion as to what the true risk may be, the data need to be analysed carefully and corrected for a wide range of factors, such as differences in age distribution, income distribution, housing density, ethnic distribution etc between the various populations being compared. It's exactly the same issue as looking at the raw data for deaths amongst the BAME section of our society and comparing them with other sections. Unless the data are looked at carefully to ensure that any comparison is valid, there is a very good chance that any conclusion drawn may not be incorrect.
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Old 21st May 2020, 15:18
  #7030 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
I've been looking at the resources that other countries (notably Singapore and South Korea) have been putting into track and trace, and the mean number of contacts per new reported case they have been dealing with. I've no doubt there will be a great deal of variability, but given that we are required to maintain social distancing, and will be doing this for the foreseeable future, I struggle to see how everyone infected could come closer than 2m to ~80 people in a day.
I've been trying to come to grips with this. One possibility is that the discussion has widened to potential contacts. As in the recent Korean example.

What South Korea's Nightclub Coronavirus Outbreak Can Teach Other Countries as They Reopen https://time.com/5834991/south-korea...us-nightclubs/
Authorities have been on high alert since a 29-year-old man who visited several bars and nightclubs in early May tested positive. He is believed to be at least one of the individuals behind the new cluster. More than 100 people have tested positive and some 5,500 may have visited bars and nightclubs in the area around the same time as infected individuals.

From elsewhere: Authorities have tested more than 2,450 people who went to the night spots in the Itaewon neighbourhood, but were still trying to track about 3,000 more. Hundreds of other people who came into contact with club patrons have also been tested.

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Old 21st May 2020, 15:25
  #7031 (permalink)  
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If being BAME is such a risk factor, how come we’re not seeing much higher proportional figures from Africa and the Indian subcontinent then?

In fact, the infection rate has been very low in the Caribbean too, although the fact that the nations are all individual islands and can quarantine easier is possibly a contributing factor,
There are studies showing the virus seems to a preferred temperature range with all the countries with the highest rates being in the same band band of latitudes From the equator. They even claim to show a difference between northern and southern Italy.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/effect...e-on-covid-19/

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medr...51524.full.pdf







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Old 21st May 2020, 15:30
  #7032 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
There are studies showing the virus seems to a preferred temperature range with all the countries with the highest rates being in the same band band of latitudes From the equator. They even claim to show a difference between northern and southern Italy.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/effect...e-on-covid-19/

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medr...51524.full.pdf



But how does that explain South America’s steeply rising rate? Very puzzling.
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Old 21st May 2020, 16:05
  #7033 (permalink)  
 
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Well most of the tropics is countries who have, shall we say, other problems than a bad cough that kills old & sick people -. And the collection of stats in most of those countries is awful.
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Old 21st May 2020, 16:18
  #7034 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
The report identifies an equal outcome for all races who have been admitted to hospital. .....

I believe that is not so. I haven't read the original, but from the quotes you post I understand that they do not find an effect of ethnicity when other factors are accounted for. That's an important difference. So if BAME people are more likely to be diabetic and if diabetes is a risk factor, then diabetes not ethnicity is treated as the risk factor. They also appear to have factored ' deprivation' which was always considered an important co-factor. So what that means is that having taken co-morbidities, socio economic factors into account they find no residual race effect. That suggests that there is not a race-based susceptibility to simple virus infection. But it does NOT mean that BAME people are not more susceptible to COVID, it's just that the susceptibility is as a result of co-morbidities such as diabetes, social effects and other known effects. I imagine the original publication shows a principal components analysis leaving little or no residual race effect.

Why does COVID not appearing to be tearing through Africa and other equatorial regions ? No-one knows, but a predominantly much younger population structure combined with high temperatures and high UV may be part of it. And although you may like to imagine poverty, malnourishment and broken health systems leave most Africans sick, at a population level that is far from the truth. Most Africans are young, healthy and appropriately nourished with little obesity.




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Old 21st May 2020, 16:22
  #7035 (permalink)  
 
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Why make such a controversial statement? It's Friday already in bits of Australia.
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Old 21st May 2020, 16:58
  #7036 (permalink)  
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UK daily briefing highlights.

20 minute swab test being rolled.

Antigen tests - 10 million to be rolled out starting next week.

Sample testing shows 17%+ plus of London population has been infected. 5%+ in rest of population.

(The last, coupled with the plummeting number of cases in London, makes me wonder about the level required for herd immunity in the general population.)
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Old 21st May 2020, 16:59
  #7037 (permalink)  
 
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The new 20 minute swab test looks as if it could make a real difference for those working with others, particularly in a health care environment. Being able to test someone when they start work for the day and get a pretty quick indication as to whether they may be infected or not, has to be a good thing. There's still always the slight chance that they may be infected, but not infectious, at the time of taking the test, but with the results time window reduced down from a day or two to just 20 mins that risk could be significantly reduced.
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Old 21st May 2020, 18:07
  #7038 (permalink)  
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https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...s-day-in-court

Hancock’s day in court

As if Matt Hancock didn't have enough on his plate. In a bid to declare the lockdown unlawful, lawyers for the multi-millionaire Simon Dolan have lodged a formal challenge at the High Court in London, with Hancock and education secretary Gavin Williamson both named as respondents. In a statement released this morning, Dolan said:

The claim argues that the lockdown measures are unlawful because they breach the European Convention on Human Rights, that the five tests for terminating lockdown are too narrow, and the measures taken by Government are disproportionate.

At the heart of this historic case is the protection of freedom and liberty for 66 million people. We are challenging a catastrophic set of decisions.”


Dolan has managed to raise nearly £130,000 via a crowdfunding site to help take on the lockdown. Meanwhile, he is also seeking full disclosure of the minutes from the science advisory group SAGE. Lawyers have asked that the legal proceedings are speeded up and are hoping that the case will be heard in just over a week's time.

It seems the government's decision-making process could well face proper, legal scrutiny well before any inquiry takes place...

Last edited by ORAC; 21st May 2020 at 19:45.
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Old 21st May 2020, 18:18
  #7039 (permalink)  
 
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On question of why South America is showing steep rise.

It is fall in Southern Hemisphere so going towards cooler temperatures.
Common trait of flu and other viruses.

Not a good sign for northern hemisphere next fall/winter.
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Old 21st May 2020, 18:26
  #7040 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by MurphyWasRight View Post
On question of why South America is showing steep rise.

It is fall in Southern Hemisphere so going towards cooler temperatures.
Common trait of flu and other viruses.

Not a good sign for northern hemisphere next fall/winter.
I suspect that a rather more significant factors include incompetent political leadership - and Bolsanaro makes Trump look competent - along with extreme poverty with an enormous gap between the haves and the have-nots, and deficient healthcare systems, probably in many cases built around people's ability to pay.

Some of the worst growth case come in subtropical nations were the difference between winter and summer temperatures ought not be so marked. Australia and new Zealand, much further south in the southern hemisphere appear not to be experiencing spikes in infections.
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