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Coronavirus: The Thread

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Coronavirus: The Thread

Old 10th May 2020, 17:45
  #6461 (permalink)  
 
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I would have thought that apart from the obvious transmission theory, a bit of Vitamin D from sunlight would also be beneficial as it’s known to boost the immune system.
Mrs CP is surprised vitamin D doesn’t get more of a mention. She has a self interest in auto immune issues, so reads up on this stuff. Apparently vitamin D deficiency in this country is much more common among the elderly, darker skinned ethnic minorities and men. I assume the relevance of those groups is familiar to most of us...
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Old 10th May 2020, 18:06
  #6462 (permalink)  
 
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Bikini Alert System 1-5

Tough, but it makes sense.

Good idea.
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Old 10th May 2020, 18:09
  #6463 (permalink)  
 
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Mrs CP is surprised vitamin D doesn’t get more of a mention. She has a self interest in auto immune issues, so reads up on this stuff. Apparently vitamin D deficiency in this country is much more common among the elderly, darker skinned ethnic minorities and men. I assume the relevance of those groups is familiar to most of us...
It is to some, though I have been baffled by some of the media who seem to be 'selling' the higher proportion of BAME victims in some kind of hazy prejudiced/racist fashion. Whilst there IS correlation between many front line workers being from BAME backgrounds, the obvious genetic reasons are those who are genetically NOT from the Northern Hemisphere will not be able to synthesise Vit D from the sunshine levels we get through sunbathing etc or diet. Darker skin has developed as a direct reaction to the punishing solar energy experienced towards the Equator, a defence mechanism, that sadly precludes the owner when in colder climes.

Add in many having their own cultural mores that keeps them inside more than outside, mixed in with dietary habits that lead to obesity and it's a very unfortunate meeting of these factors that make Covid-19 so deadly for them.
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Old 10th May 2020, 18:20
  #6464 (permalink)  
 
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The Robert Koch Institute which reports the COVID statistics has become a lot better known around the world as people try to understand why Germany seems to be doing better than many other countries. Today there was a note of caution as the R rate was reported as going over 1, which has been flagged as an important measure. I had a look at today's RKI situation report to try and understand why this should be, and discovered some other interesting things as well. First of all the R rate is an estimate using moving averages rather than an absolute number, and it is stressed that this is more of a amber caution (to use an aeronautical analogy) than an all out red alarm. The trend over the past weeks has been positive, now there is some question whether this will continue. The RKI report points to a some things which have shown up in the data recently and therefore influenced the trend. The first is an isolated outbreak in 6 old people's homes in a small town in eastern Germany called Greiz. I was not completely convinced that care homes were being included, but this shows categorically that they are in the numbers.

Of the 13,708 residents of care homes in Germany reported as infected 2,708 have died, so about 20% mortality of those tested positive. People working in the care homes and infected were 8,006 of whom 239 died, or about 3%. The high mortality in older people is well known. Why the percentage in people employed (presumably average age and fitness) should be a lot higher than the 1% that has been used by Imperial etc. is not known. I would look perhaps at the intensity of their exposure. This may well also have played a role in a series of outbreaks that have been reported in meat packing plants with several hundred workers infected, which is similar to some outbreaks in the US. Obviously food processing is an essential industry that needs to keep running. It is also not a very pleasant job. So there are a lot of foreign workers who it has been reported are living in cramped basic accommodation. So you have a ready made infection hot spot.

My question is whether these outbreaks in atypical circumstances for the overall population tell us much about overall spread in the community. The critical importance of avoiding infection in old people's homes is clear. But whether that is helped by locking down the population rather than taking measures in the homes is doubtful. The protection of workers as more people return is a more difficult one. Obviously most of those workers returning from lockdown are not living in dormitory accommodation. There are also no numbers for the death rate in this group. But we can expect it to be more like the range in the Imperial model. So if sensible measures are taken the situation should hopefully be manageable.

Last edited by lederhosen; 10th May 2020 at 20:05.
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Old 10th May 2020, 18:42
  #6465 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SpringHeeledJack View Post
It is to some, though I have been baffled by some of the media who seem to be 'selling' the higher proportion of BAME victims in some kind of hazy prejudiced/racist fashion. Whilst there IS correlation between many front line workers being from BAME backgrounds, the obvious genetic reasons are those who are genetically NOT from the Northern Hemisphere will not be able to synthesise Vit D from the sunshine levels we get through sunbathing etc or diet. Darker skin has developed as a direct reaction to the punishing solar energy experienced towards the Equator, a defence mechanism, that sadly precludes the owner when in colder climes.

Add in many having their own cultural mores that keeps them inside more than outside, mixed in with dietary habits that lead to obesity and it's a very unfortunate meeting of these factors that make Covid-19 so deadly for them.

Plus, without going off thread too much, the veiled hints from the media about BAME suffering more because of disadvantaged backgrounds and lower incomes despite proportionally more senior doctors and consultants in the NHS coming from from this group. So, as you say SHJ, more possibly to do with genetic makeup and culture rather than perceived ‘injustices in our inherently racist society’
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Old 10th May 2020, 19:24
  #6466 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...361v1.full.pdf

Population-level COVID-19 mortality risk for non-elderly individuals overall and for non- elderly individuals without underlying diseases in pandemic epicenters

.....The absolute risk of COVID-19 death ranged from 1.7 per million for people <65 years old in Germany to 79 per million in New York City........

The COVID-19 death risk in people <65 years old during the period of fatalities from the epidemic was equivalent to the death risk from driving between 9 miles per day (Germany) and 415 miles per day (New York City). .......
Ioannidis has become obsessed with trying to show the virus isn't that dangerous. Remember these deaths are per million of population - not per million people with coronavirus. It's the death risk when the overwhelming majority of the population have not yet been infected - and with lockdowns in place.

Early in the pandemic Ioannidis went with the "it's just like the flu" line - and he's been trying to throw together data to confirm this view ever since. As the bodies stack up in a distinctly un-flu-like manner.
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Old 10th May 2020, 19:29
  #6467 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Curious Pax View Post
Mrs CP is surprised vitamin D doesn’t get more of a mention. She has a self interest in auto immune issues, so reads up on this stuff. Apparently vitamin D deficiency in this country is much more common among the elderly, darker skinned ethnic minorities and men. I assume the relevance of those groups is familiar to most of us...
I can imagine several possible causative factors in the excess death rates, several of which may be acting together. All of them need to be explored. Two which I personally rate are: vitamin D deficiency, and the possibility that some ethnic groups live in larger multi-generation family groupings.

PS A few years ago the government belatedly started offered sensible sounding vitamin D advice for the UK https://www.nhs.uk/news/food-and-die...-need-to-know/
People who have a higher risk of vitamin D deficiency are being advised to take a supplement all year round. SACN's review concluded that these at-risk groups include people whose skin has little or no exposure to the sun, like those in care homes, or people who cover their skin when they are outside. People with dark skin, from African, African-Caribbean and South Asian backgrounds, may also not get enough vitamin D from sunlight in the summer. They should consider taking a supplement all year round as well.
... I'm not suggesting vitamin D deficiency had a significant role in care home deaths, I think that the Petri-dish analogy used for cruise ships applies.
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Old 10th May 2020, 20:55
  #6468 (permalink)  
 
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I've been watching Dr John Campbell who puts some really good stuff on youtube everyday and here is one of his recent reports on Vitamin D.

Start at 18.00


An earlier one here


Last edited by fireflybob; 10th May 2020 at 21:11.
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Old 10th May 2020, 21:02
  #6469 (permalink)  
 
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Re the BAME figures; when this was first raised, I remarked that perhaps something similar to sickle cell anaemia is going on here. I don't remember the numbers but I understand this is far more prevalent in people of African heritage then elsewhere.
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Old 10th May 2020, 21:03
  #6470 (permalink)  
 
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John Campbell was preaching (quite sensibly) about Vitamin D way back in mid-April (poss earlier). He may not be a Prof or the world's leading specialist on something but he does strike me as a man who knows his trade. And worth listening to.
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Old 10th May 2020, 21:58
  #6471 (permalink)  
 
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Old 10th May 2020, 23:19
  #6472 (permalink)  
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scr1.

In our house outside coats remain in the car, Kitchen is divided in to clean and contaminated areas any thing that can be washed is washed in hot soapy water and placed in the clean area, anything that can not be washed ie boxes of stuff etc is wiped over with disinfectant , shopping bags are put back in the car and the contaminated area is then disinfected. Started doing all this about a week and a half before lockdown. Any other ideas??
I take longer to wash my shopping than to buy it. I wash the bread (too hot not to wear gloves) in its packet and the boxed cake is wiped with meths before opening and putting the cake on a plate in a new bag. My washing of a bottle of fizzy water had me retreating as it got bigger. Grapes, washed HOT then cold before rebagging, even lettuce is hot washed leaf by leaf for the outer layer - the ones I haven't thrown away. I'm surprised that it only makes a fractional difference to the scrunch. Salads in the evening same process going into the spinner. All in all, it's a confounded nuisance.

The thing is, most of the stuff feels very different when I've washed it. The wine bottles don't have that slightly sticky feeling that comes with handling.

My feeling is the spoken word it a major factor. People seem to think it's okay to talk louder when I step back meaningfully. Then there's singing in the street. In parts of my town you'd be given a white feather for not singing. Then there's wind direction . . . etc., etc.
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Old 11th May 2020, 01:51
  #6473 (permalink)  
 
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If it is safer to cycle to work, then bicycle shops will be one industry to benefit from this.

In view of the three dreaded *'Mitsu' which daily bombard our screens in Japan, it would seem that the shorter the time we spend on the bus or tube, the better.

To me that would mean, walk at least a stop before getting on, and get off a stop early.

*Mitsu 密 refers to 'secretive, close, sealed', and this Kanji character is used in three words 密集 Misshu, 密閉 Mippei, and 密接 Missetsu, to indicate a) gathering, b) enclosed poorly-ventilated space, and c) physical proximity over time. The latter means loud chatting, laughing or singing for any length of time, seated or standing in intimate groups. When these three yellow bubbles overlap, that is the RED ZONE.

In the meantime, Transport for London could do well to invest in better ventilation for buses and tubes. Those small slit windows for example are suffocating in the summer.
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Old 11th May 2020, 02:40
  #6474 (permalink)  
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For the time being, masks will be the only answer. Funnily enough, for a few years I'd been thinking about investing in a small hand towel business which sold what is in essence a hefty handkerchief, albeit smelling of something nice that kills all known germs and then some. I'd thought, Catch It!!!! And advertise it with an indignant cat popping its head up into view.

The gimmick was that it would sound like, cat . . . well, you get the gist. For the posh, it could be labelled Catch 'em. I imagined it would empty influenza wards and make me rich and famous. Successful people get on with things and don't just dream. Two years ago I was surprised to see an NHS picture in a car sales loo proclaiming Catch it! And showing a handkerchief.

For decades I've been mindful of catching things on public transport. I never use . . . Hmmm, I did for a trip to the American embassy but walked half way back to Liverpool St station to save exposure. Last underground in ~1985.

People seemed to accept just getting sick. I don't, I'd sooner be attacked physically. People that do it, mostly wouldn't go around punching old folk, so why would they not protect them from germs. Funny thing is, following the lockdown, maybe they will.

The Rivetess and I both got sick on a flight to Dallas. Poor kid behind us coughed her heart up for hours - and she was going on to the west coast. We both got infected lungs from that young lady. I'm certain if she'd coughed into an absorbent pad, we'd have been okay. Coughing got me again in 2001 when my colleague coughed all the previous day. Chest on fire the following afternoon, and by 21:00 I was helped off the aircraft and the flight cancelled. When we were leaving Texas for the last time, the Rivetess had a hacking cough. We'd got lots of house clearing to do and were in each other's hair. I berated her several times for doping our usual standard of protecting the other. Flight was lost and a kind doctor friend took five xrays before telling BA I was repaired enough to fly. The guard has to be mutual - or carriage wide. Let it drop and people in a carriage will be breathing in pathogens.
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Old 11th May 2020, 03:29
  #6475 (permalink)  
 
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"People seemed to accept just getting sick"

I think it's more that they accept 'other families' getting sick and dying. In their mind, it's not going to happen to their mum.
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Old 11th May 2020, 04:44
  #6476 (permalink)  
 
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A friend in Scotland suffered from a bad knee for years, and eventually he met an unconventional doctor who told him to get 15 minutes of sunlight on each side of his naked body per day, adding that the traditional recommended daily dose of vitamin D in Britain is about 10 times too low. (Following this treatment, his knee problem gradually disappeared completely.)

In 'light' of that, here are some tips and warnings re getting enough Vitamin D production in your body.
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/326167
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Old 11th May 2020, 06:36
  #6477 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by jolihokistix View Post
A friend in Scotland suffered from a bad knee for years, and eventually he met an unconventional doctor who told him to get 15 minutes of sunlight on each side of his naked body per day, adding that the traditional recommended daily dose of vitamin D in Britain is about 10 times too low. (Following this treatment, his knee problem gradually disappeared completely.)

In 'light' of that, here are some tips and warnings re getting enough Vitamin D production in your body.
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/326167
Ha, Joli!
The problem there is getting 2x15 minutes of sunshine daily in Scotland...
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Old 11th May 2020, 07:09
  #6478 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Twitter View Post
Ha, Joli!
The problem there is getting 2x15 minutes of sunshine daily in Scotland...
Fear not!

Scotland will be a tropical paradise in no time, according to some....
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Old 11th May 2020, 07:37
  #6479 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by KelvinD View Post
John Campbell was preaching (quite sensibly) about Vitamin D way back in mid-April (poss earlier). He may not be a Prof or the world's leading specialist on something but he does strike me as a man who knows his trade. And worth listening to.
Much of what he says seems to be OK, but it is worth remembering that he's a former A&E nurse, and he is not a medical doctor. That doesn't mean that what he's doing with his YouTube channel is in error, but it would seem wise to view his advice bearing in mind his background. His doctorate is in teaching, which may well be why he comes across fairly clearly.

A friend (who's a bit of a fitness freak) has looked in depth at the vitamin D dosage, having initially been of the view that taking high doses was a good thing (he's one of those people that, if shaken, probably rattles from all the supplement pills he takes). He's now backed away from the large doses that some seem to be suggesting. There's no evidence to support the view that taking large doses of vitamin D is beneficial in any way, despite a lot of research, although there is evidence that those who aren't exposed to sunlight may benefit from taking 10µg/day, but not more than 50µg/day. Taking high doses (say 100µg or more per day) seems likely to be harmful, especially for anyone with heart or kidney problems.

The supposed link between Covid-19 susceptibility and vitamin D isn't proven, and seems to be based on speculation relating to the fact that those from the BAME section of the UK population seem to be more susceptible to Covid-19. Why this section of the UK population seem to be more at risk isn't at all clear, but there are also other diseases that impact more heavily on this group, too, like cardiovascular disease, diabetes, as well as diseases that affect specific racial groups, like sickle cell and Creutzfeldt-Jakob. It seems more probable that there are some other genetic factors at work that are making this group more susceptible, although it's perhaps possible that some may have a vitamin D deficiency. Right now it seems to be yet another unknown, amongst all the many other unknowns about this disease.
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Old 11th May 2020, 07:42
  #6480 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Loose rivets View Post
scr1.



I take longer to wash my shopping than to buy it. I wash the bread (too hot not to wear gloves) in its packet and the boxed cake is wiped with meths before opening and putting the cake on a plate in a new bag. My washing of a bottle of fizzy water had me retreating as it got bigger. Grapes, washed HOT then cold before rebagging, even lettuce is hot washed leaf by leaf for the outer layer - the ones I haven't thrown away. I'm surprised that it only makes a fractional difference to the scrunch. Salads in the evening same process going into the spinner. All in all, it's a confounded nuisance.

The thing is, most of the stuff feels very different when I've washed it. The wine bottles don't have that slightly sticky feeling that comes with handling.

My feeling is the spoken word it a major factor. People seem to think it's okay to talk louder when I step back meaningfully. Then there's singing in the street. In parts of my town you'd be given a white feather for not singing. Then there's wind direction . . . etc., etc.
Isnt some of this a little over the top? Washing wine bottles for example. The only person to have touched the wine bottle prior to yourself, will have been the shop assistant who placed it on the shelf. The chances of them having CV19, and you then touching the bottle in exactly the same place as they did, seems unlikely in the extreme. The same goes for virtually all packaged grocery items. Washing your hands more frequently at home would surely be just as effective.
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