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Coronavirus: The Thread

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Coronavirus: The Thread

Old 10th May 2020, 11:06
  #6441 (permalink)  
 
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"... and statistics"
Professor Sikora's second hand report of a US study may, or may not, have significance, It may, or may not also, be selective statistics suited to a particular viewpoint. As far as I know, noone has provided evidence of a confirmed infection source.
The efforts at domestic hygiene outlined above may well be commendable but could be considered at odds with long-held assumptions that exposure to a variety of potential infections builds up immunities. "Following the Science" begs the question - which Science?
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Old 10th May 2020, 11:12
  #6442 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by stagger View Post
There are still a lot of unanswered questions about transmission routes.

But, as the lockdown in the UK eases and more outdoor activities are permitted. As people start flocking to sit in outdoor cafes, and browse garden centres and outdoor market stalls. As people perhaps wander around places like Covent Garden and Spitalfields - large hangar-like structures open to the breeze (well ventilated so surely low risk?).
It would be useful if they could identify where everyone testing positive for virus is likely to have caught it from. It’s not clear to me how much (if any) follow up is done with positive tests to at least narrow down where a victim is likely to have caught it. Even imprecise circumstantial data would at least be a start, and maybe permit some narrowing of the restrictions. It’ll never be 100%, but it would make a difference if they could see that say 85% of infections are in people who have had direct contact with hospital or care home workers.
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Old 10th May 2020, 11:27
  #6443 (permalink)  
 
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Did somebody say outdoor market?

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Old 10th May 2020, 11:29
  #6444 (permalink)  
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As people do all this - it's perhaps worth remembering - this all seems to have started in a large market, partly outdoors and partly a hangar-like structure open to the breeze.
I think that might be a Case of one animal being eaten or bitten by another and then being bought and eaten by a customer in return rather than an aerosol infection. That would only occur once the virus had adapted to it’s initial human host.
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Old 10th May 2020, 11:36
  #6445 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
I think that might be a Case of one animal being eaten or bitten by another and then being bought and eaten by a customer in return rather than an aerosol infection. That would only occur once the virus had adapted to it’s initial human host.
Many of the early cases were traced to the market - it wasn't just a single case. So it's probably that there was human-to-human transmission there - after the initial species jump.
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Old 10th May 2020, 11:55
  #6446 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
Interesting that this suggests that lockdown is ineffective. It begs the question as to what the transmission route is for people who are infected in lockdown.

I can understand there being a relatively high risk for people in nursing homes, or those receiving regular care visits in their homes, but for those who are essentially isolated from others, I wonder how they are getting infected?

Could it be from stuff coming into their homes, perhaps? I'm not sure how many people are taking care to try and disinfect everything before it enters their home, and I'd guess many just may not be able to do this, anyway.
I had that discussion with Mrs WB627 this morning. Someone needs to work out where and how all these infections are occurring as a matter of urgency.

One possible source is hospital acquired infection. It would seem hospitals are operating clean side, non covid and dirty side, covid, this is great until the clean side runs short of staff and they move staff over from the dirty side. Even with the prescribed PPE and protocols in use (not fit for purpose IMHO), there has to be a serious risk of infecting non covid patients.

We are shielding, we don't go out anywhere and we disinfect everything that come into the home. Not worth the risk not to.



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Old 10th May 2020, 12:12
  #6447 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by WB627 View Post
I had that discussion with Mrs WB627 this morning. Someone needs to work out where and how all these infections are occurring as a matter of urgency.

One possible source is hospital acquired infection. It would seem hospitals are operating clean side, non covid and dirty side, covid, this is great until the clean side runs short of staff and they move staff over from the dirty side. Even with the prescribed PPE and protocols in use (not fit for purpose IMHO), there has to be a serious risk of infecting non covid patients.

We are shielding, we don't go out anywhere and we disinfect everything that come into the home. Not worth the risk not to.
But that brings us back to the ‘viral load’ Surely, it’s better to be exposed to a low dose of a pathogen to build resistance than disinfecting everything? There appears to be cases recorded in NYC where people emerging from quarantine are being struck down quickly because they’ve been too isolated. And what about at the beginning of the UK lockdown? The guidance was very much then to avoid more 15 minutes of exposure to outside individuals. It’s now morphed into ANY exposure to others.
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Old 10th May 2020, 12:26
  #6448 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by BehindBlueEyes View Post
But that brings us back to the ‘viral load’ Surely, it’s better to be exposed to a low dose of a pathogen to build resistance than disinfecting everything? There appears to be cases recorded in NYC where people emerging from quarantine are being struck down quickly because they’ve been too isolated. And what about at the beginning of the UK lockdown? The guidance was very much then to avoid more 15 minutes of exposure to outside individuals. It’s now morphed into ANY exposure to others.
I recall that with bacterial infections, it is said that one of the reasons some people are more susceptible to stomach bugs is a mania for keeping houses too clean and disinfected, which somehow reduces the body's capacity for fighting a bacterial infection when they encounter one. Our kitchen isn't anti-bacced to within a millimetre of it's life, never has been, and in these times still isn't. It's not dirty, just not surgically clean either. Neither of us, nor my daughter when she lived here suffered with stomach issues, and still don't.

When you could apply the same principals to viruses I have't a clue, I suspect not, but as you noted there has been a case in New York where someone who had quarantined caught covid-19 soon after re-emerging into the outside world. It is probably far too early to draw any conclusions.
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Old 10th May 2020, 12:35
  #6449 (permalink)  
 
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Cases in Germany rising again after restrictions eased.
Anyone thinking we are on our way out of this is kidding themselves
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Old 10th May 2020, 12:37
  #6450 (permalink)  
 
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There doesn't seem to be a lot of readily available information about whether viral infections occur as a sort of "on/off" switch, that's triggered by someone receiving a particular dose of viral particles, or whether there's some sort of graduated response, that varies depending on how much they receive. Not my field at all, but logic suggests that any viral particle that makes it through the first layer mechanical defence (which I guess is the constantly moving mucus layer) then has to lock on to a host cell and gain entry. If, say, only one viral particle does this, so only a single cell is infected initially, then that suggests that a much smaller number of second generation viral particles would be released, than would be the case if hundreds of cells were infected at the same time. If this is the case, then it would seem to take a lot longer to infect enough cells to cause disease, which suggests that the immune system may have more time to mount a defence.

What I have no idea about, is the impact of this on the immune system. Does the immune system start to learn about this pathogen after just a very small infection, or does it take much more to trigger it? It seems pretty complex, but if I had to guess I suspect that there's probably a minimum level of infection needed in order to trigger the immune system effectively. If this is right, then it may be that there are two threshold levels for infection, a lower one where it's just enough to trigger the immune system and a higher one that's just enough to trigger active disease. This might well be a completely incorrect theory, though!
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Old 10th May 2020, 13:02
  #6451 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Sallyann
But what are the consequences for an individual of being tested?

If the result is negative, it means the person is still liable to catch and suffer the virus. Nothing has changed for them.

If the result is positive, what then? We still don't know if they will be immune ​​and if so for how long. We still don't know if they can still be infectious to others.

If negative you are correct.
If positive they can be monitored. If they become infected again that would be a positive that they don't have immunity. If they don't become infected it might indicate immunity. Regarding them being infectious that would be more difficult to prove.

Only as the disease resurges might things become clearer.
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Old 10th May 2020, 13:03
  #6452 (permalink)  
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VP959,

All you ever needed to know......

https://www.immunology.org/public-in...ponses-viruses

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3899649/
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Old 10th May 2020, 14:00
  #6453 (permalink)  
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Chinese authorities have reported what could be the beginning of a new wave of coronavirus cases in the northeast of the country, with one city in Jilin province being reclassified as high-risk.

Jilin officials raised the risk level of the city of Shulan to high from medium, having raised it to medium from low just the day before after one woman tested positive on Thursday. Eleven new cases in Shulan were confirmed on Saturday, all of them members of her family or people who came into contact with her or family members, Reuters reported.

Shulan has increased virus-control measures, including a lockdown of residential compounds, a ban on non-essential transportation and school closures, the Jilin government said.....

New infections on rise in Germany

New coronavirus infections are accelerating again in Germany just days after its leaders loosened social restrictions, raising concerns that the pandemic could once again slip out of control. The Robert Koch Institute for disease control said in a daily bulletin the number of people each sick person now infects – known as the reproduction rate, or R – had risen to 1.1.

France reports new cluster hours before lockdown ends

Hours before France ends its strict seven-week coronavirus lockdown on Monday, a worrying new Covid-19 cluster has been reported in the Dordogne. The outbreak has been traced back to the funeral of a 51-year-old man in the small village of L’Eglise-Neuve-de-Vergt – population 500 – south of Périgueux. The man did not die of Covid-19.

Bars closed in South Korean capital

Seoul, the South Korean capital, has closed bars and clubs over fears of a second virus wave, after more than two dozen cases were linked to a 29-year-old man who tested positive after spending time at five clubs and bars in Itaewon last weekend.
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Old 10th May 2020, 14:11
  #6454 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Chinese authorities have reported what could be the beginning of a new wave of coronavirus cases in the northeast of the country, with one city in Jilin province being reclassified as high-risk.

Jilin officials raised the risk level of the city of Shulan to high from medium, having raised it to medium from low just the day before after one woman tested positive on Thursday. Eleven new cases in Shulan were confirmed on Saturday, all of them members of her family or people who came into contact with her or family members, Reuters reported.

Shulan has increased virus-control measures, including a lockdown of residential compounds, a ban on non-essential transportation and school closures, the Jilin government said.....

New infections on rise in Germany

New coronavirus infections are accelerating again in Germany just days after its leaders loosened social restrictions, raising concerns that the pandemic could once again slip out of control. The Robert Koch Institute for disease control said in a daily bulletin the number of people each sick person now infects – known as the reproduction rate, or R – had risen to 1.1.

France reports new cluster hours before lockdown ends

Hours before France ends its strict seven-week coronavirus lockdown on Monday, a worrying new Covid-19 cluster has been reported in the Dordogne. The outbreak has been traced back to the funeral of a 51-year-old man in the small village of L’Eglise-Neuve-de-Vergt – population 500 – south of Périgueux. The man did not die of Covid-19.

Bars closed in South Korean capital

Seoul, the South Korean capital, has closed bars and clubs over fears of a second virus wave, after more than two dozen cases were linked to a 29-year-old man who tested positive after spending time at five clubs and bars in Itaewon last weekend.
It’s absolutely bound to happen. No surprise.

I’m almost getting to the viewpoint of let’s get it over and done with and stop avoiding something that’s going to be with us all for a long time.


Last edited by BehindBlueEyes; 10th May 2020 at 14:23.
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Old 10th May 2020, 15:17
  #6455 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Chinese authorities have reported what could be the beginning of a new wave of coronavirus cases in the northeast of the country, with one city in Jilin province being reclassified as high-risk.

Jilin officials raised the risk level of the city of Shulan to high from medium, having raised it to medium from low just the day before after one woman tested positive on Thursday. Eleven new cases in Shulan were confirmed on Saturday, all of them members of her family or people who came into contact with her or family members, Reuters reported.

Shulan has increased virus-control measures, including a lockdown of residential compounds, a ban on non-essential transportation and school closures, the Jilin government said.....

New infections on rise in Germany

New coronavirus infections are accelerating again in Germany just days after its leaders loosened social restrictions, raising concerns that the pandemic could once again slip out of control. The Robert Koch Institute for disease control said in a daily bulletin the number of people each sick person now infects – known as the reproduction rate, or R – had risen to 1.1.

France reports new cluster hours before lockdown ends

Hours before France ends its strict seven-week coronavirus lockdown on Monday, a worrying new Covid-19 cluster has been reported in the Dordogne. The outbreak has been traced back to the funeral of a 51-year-old man in the small village of L’Eglise-Neuve-de-Vergt – population 500 – south of Périgueux. The man did not die of Covid-19.

Bars closed in South Korean capital

Seoul, the South Korean capital, has closed bars and clubs over fears of a second virus wave, after more than two dozen cases were linked to a 29-year-old man who tested positive after spending time at five clubs and bars in Itaewon last weekend.
If Korea can't get on top of it then there is little hope for the rest of us.
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Old 10th May 2020, 15:31
  #6456 (permalink)  
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Dead_pan,

Even in Korea the young don’t take it seriously......

Itaewon turns into ghost town following cluster infection

Itaewon turns into ghost town following cluster infection

The streets of Seoul's bustling multicultural neighborhood of Itaewon looked abandoned Saturday night as the city government stopped clubs and bars from doing business earlier in the day following a recent cluster infection of the new coronavirus.

Under the administrative order, all clubs, bars and other nightlife establishments are banned from hosting "crowds of people," which virtually suspends their businesses. The precautionary measure came after dozens of infections were reported in relation to a 29-year-old who tested positive for COVID-19 after spending time at five clubs and bars in Itaewon last weekend.

Clubs in Itaewon, usually bustling with crowds of young people and loud music, were found deserted Saturday with signs that read "temporarily closed" and entrances locked. Although the administrative order does not apply to restaurants, their businesses have also been affected. "It looks like the district has turned into a complete ghost town," a restaurant owner in Itaewon said. "Normally this is supposed to be the busiest time of the day. Now, there's not a single customer."

"We are struggling the most right now than ever with our business since the coronavirus started," said another restaurant owner who has run business in Itaewon for 11 years.

Clubs in the district of Gangnam were also shut down following the administrative order. "We held an emergency meeting after Seoul city made the announcement, closed doors and put up signs informing our customers," a club in Gangnam said. "We are worried since we do not know how long we have to keep the doors closed."

Bars labeled as general restaurants in Gangnam, however, were still crowded with customers, raising concerns over further coronavirus infections.

Young customers formed long lines to get seats at indoor "pochas" -- Korean-style bars -- near Gangnam Station. Tables were placed closely together in clusters and the restaurant was filled with customers. "We were supposed to go to a club, but it was closed so we came to this place," said a man, who was at a pocha in Gangnam with his friends. "I heard a few people were confirmed with the virus in Itaewon, but I'm not worried since it was not in Gangnam.".......
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Old 10th May 2020, 16:04
  #6457 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
Interesting that this suggests that lockdown is ineffective. It begs the question as to what the transmission route is for people who are infected in lockdown.

I can understand there being a relatively high risk for people in nursing homes, or those receiving regular care visits in their homes, but for those who are essentially isolated from others, I wonder how they are getting infected?

Could it be from stuff coming into their homes, perhaps? I'm not sure how many people are taking care to try and disinfect everything before it enters their home, and I'd guess many just may not be able to do this, anyway.
There seems to be quite a lot of research suggesting the highest risk of transmission is 'shared enclosed spaces' - lots of links in Richard North's latest blog here Coronavirus: another day, another slogan
The implication of this may be that the main transmission route into the community at large is from hospitals and care homes where healthcare workers are spreading the disease back via other members of their households
In terms of the lockdown this would mean we can all spend as much time as we like outdoors, but anything that involves groups of people indoors (pubs, bars, cafes, restaurants, clubs, sports/entertainment venues etc.) definitely remain closed. Did I read somewhere that South Korea are having to re-impose social distancing measures after finding new cases transmitted via bars and clubs?

Last edited by dastocks; 10th May 2020 at 16:06. Reason: redundant clause removed
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Old 10th May 2020, 16:22
  #6458 (permalink)  
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https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...361v1.full.pdf

Population-level COVID-19 mortality risk for non-elderly individuals overall and for non- elderly individuals without underlying diseases in pandemic epicenters

.....The absolute risk of COVID-19 death ranged from 1.7 per million for people <65 years old in Germany to 79 per million in New York City........

The COVID-19 death risk in people <65 years old during the period of fatalities from the epidemic was equivalent to the death risk from driving between 9 miles per day (Germany) and 415 miles per day (New York City). .......
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Old 10th May 2020, 16:25
  #6459 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by dastocks View Post
There seems to be quite a lot of research suggesting the highest risk of transmission is 'shared enclosed spaces' - lots of links in Richard North's latest blog here Coronavirus: another day, another slogan
The implication of this may be that the main transmission route into the community at large is from hospitals and care homes where healthcare workers are spreading the disease back via other members of their households
In terms of the lockdown this would mean we can all spend as much time as we like outdoors, but anything that involves groups of people indoors (pubs, bars, cafes, restaurants, clubs, sports/entertainment venues etc.) definitely remain closed. Did I read somewhere that South Korea are having to re-impose social distancing measures after finding new cases transmitted via bars and clubs?
That’s a good point, I wish I’d listened and taken a bit more notice at the briefing a couple of days ago. I think Jonathan Van Tam also suggested that there was a lot of evidence that outside open air transmission was either pretty low or something that wasn’t unduly concerning the experts. If, indeed that is the case, that puts quite a different perspective on the way forward with lockdown behaviours.

In my recent experience with elderly relatives in CHs, they don’t spend a lot of time outside, often because they tend to feel the cold, even on reasonably warm days, so prefer to stay in. I would have thought that apart from the obvious transmission theory, a bit of Vitamin D from sunlight would also be beneficial as it’s known to boost the immune system.

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Old 10th May 2020, 16:30
  #6460 (permalink)  
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BBE, may I refer you to my previous post......

https://www.pprune.org/jet-blast/629...i#post10775127

Last edited by ORAC; 10th May 2020 at 18:00.
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