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Coronavirus: The Thread

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Coronavirus: The Thread

Old 9th May 2020, 13:20
  #6421 (permalink)  
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Old 9th May 2020, 13:22
  #6422 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by WingNut60 View Post
The rate in NSW as compared to the NT is due to a combination of factors, one of which would be population density.
But the most significant being that the NT didn't let a boat-load of infected and infectious tour-boaters go roaming uncontrolled amongst the population as NSW did.
Don't just look at the graphs. The devil is in the details.
Agreed, but the fact still remains that population density is a significant factor in the rate of spread of disease. golder has seemingly been trying to argue that it has no impact, when just about every country in the world is adopting social distancing measures precisely because it's very well understood that spacing people apart has a significant impact on reducing the rate of infection. Heck, my mother was sent to a remote isolation unit during WWII, along with all the other girls in her class, because the convent she attended was hit by an outbreak of diphtheria (she caught it and recovered, many in her class died from it). Diphtheria is spread in much the same way as Covid-19, via airborne and surface contact.

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Old 9th May 2020, 13:27
  #6423 (permalink)  
 
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I'm not arguing it has no impact, just not as much as you give it. You are saying it's all pop density. It isn't. It's contact between people. HK Taiwan etc has very high density cities, but low infection.
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Old 9th May 2020, 13:29
  #6424 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by golder View Post
I'm not arguing it has no impact, just not as much as you give it. You are saying it's all pop density. It isn't

No, I've not once ever suggested that it's "all pop density" at all. All I've ever written is that population density has a significant impact on the infection rate, which it very clearly does.
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Old 9th May 2020, 13:41
  #6425 (permalink)  
 
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Again, it's more important how much the pop interacts and what precautions they take, than the pop density. HK is an example that is given a lot on this thread, there are others
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Old 9th May 2020, 13:55
  #6426 (permalink)  
 
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Here is a precis of a message received today from a relative of a family member, arms length removed:
"Place I worked 5 confirmed cases.Then another 9 with symptoms. Phoned infection control (whoever they may be) and was told "You've had your 5 tests. That is all you are getting. Now you have an outbreak so we don't test anyone else. Isolate them and barrier nurse them".
How the f&*( are you supposed to isolate people who have a dementia diagnosis? How can you barrier nurse when you have inadequate PPE?
This bug is ripping through care homes and mental health units like wildfire.
And people want to lift lockdown because of the economy.
This is not an easy death. It's an effing nightmare.There aren't enough syringe drivers in the world to make sure everyone has one. You are running from one patient to the next to give them to give 'rescue doses' of End of Life medication.
But honestly, we are going into a managed second wave I reckon. Infection control are hoping to get it out of the way before flu season.
That is the unofficial word on the wire."
Now, I know this person well and can say this person is not normally given to emotional outbursts, more of a hard shell really so I am confident of what this message is intended to convey.
Dire, isn't it?

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Old 9th May 2020, 14:23
  #6427 (permalink)  
 
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It's OK, a politician will be behind a microphone tomorrow. Telling you how they have it in hand. Don't worry about the numbers being the worst in europe and per capita higher than the USA. How they have to keep adding lines at the top of the charts, because they are running out of room. We'll get the UK back to work.
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Old 9th May 2020, 14:24
  #6428 (permalink)  
 
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I have nothing but anecdotal evidence on the Hong Kong numbers being low, but I believe it is due primarily to the previous several epidemics in the territory, as other more experienced observers have pointed out.

Masks

The laboratory figures of how effective masks are may be skewed by the environment in which they are tested. In Hong Kong where the wearing of a mask when you have a cold or flu is normal, the vast majority of the population have worn masks since February, and have self isolated if they had anything which could be construed as a respiratory infection. Not so much herd immunity as herd ostracisation if you turn up for work or a social event with the slightest sniffle. In a collectivist society you do not want to stand out as the tall poppy doing something that may affect the group badly.

Hand Washing

From my observation in the last 30 odd years here the average Hong Kong person washes their hands many times more in the day than other societies. They use hand steriliser frequently, and have done since SARS. Most women will have a small bottle in their hand bag, and dispensers are in every large office building. Elevator buttons have been sterilised hourly for the last 18 years. This is not new, it has been inculcated into the daily life over the last twenty years.

General Health

Obesity and the diseases that it causes are not as prevalent in Hong Kong as many western countries. Most older residents exercise to a greater or lesser extent. Eating amongst the older generation is seen to be part of keeping healthy and perhaps more important than a drug regime. It would not be much of a stretch to guess that the immune system of the average Hong Kong resident is better prepared for a viral attack than other countries outside Asia. The population may have a partial immunity to corona type viruses from the several previous epidemics, going back to 1957. There are papers out there on this very subject.

The Health Services

The deaths of health workers in the SARS epidemic due to mistakes made cut deep into the local psyche. A moving memorial is installed in the Central Park to those who lost their lives. I do not know, but I would venture that a hospital administrator in Hong Kong would ensure that at any time of the year they would have more than sufficient PPE for nearly any eventuality. Their epidemic protocols would be formulated and trained to all staff, from consultants down to cleaners. The universities have continual world class research on viral epidemics, and share their findings quickly with the local medical profession.

The politics

Not much to say on this. Hong Kong politicians can be as slow as the rest of the world's to lead from the front.

So I offer no evidence, although the evidence is probably out there for a good Phd thesis to show that a society that is mentally and practically prepared for viral epidemics will have less mortality per head of population than one that has not experienced such attacks. Denial and "it is just a flu" did not exist in Hong Kong.

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Old 9th May 2020, 14:27
  #6429 (permalink)  
 
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I live in a Rural area that to all intents and purposes is not policed, even the nearby town centre is devoid of Police except for a Police car passing through every few hours, all the parks are open and many people especially teenagers blatantly flaunt the shutdown, meeting in the parks for get togethers (I don't think their are many families living together with 8 kids all about the same age).

The young mostly don't care, Endemic lack of responsibility and control in UK Parenting thrown into sharp focus, the kids tell the parents how it is these days, so the chances of getting this under control in the UK is next to zero
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Old 9th May 2020, 14:41
  #6430 (permalink)  
 
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Thank you for the good post.anxiao
HK stats 1,045 cases 4 dead. pop 7.5m. 17,311 people per square mile, but pop is actually in a smaller area. 3.5% is developed. They had a flair mid march and sorted it.
https://news.google.com/covid19/map?...d=%2Fm%2F03h64


this is a good overview


Last edited by golder; 9th May 2020 at 15:05.
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Old 9th May 2020, 15:48
  #6431 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Slaine View Post
The young mostly don't care, Endemic lack of responsibility and control in UK Parenting thrown into sharp focus, the kids tell the parents how it is these days, so the chances of getting this under control in the UK is next to zero
It's all well and good to preach but even the best parents would struggle to keep teenage kids in line if they were all couped in a council house or tower block. It must be really tough for many families
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Old 9th May 2020, 16:36
  #6432 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by slats11 View Post
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soci...analysis-chest

CT scans are actually a pretty good way of diagnosing COVID. Pretty sensitive (CT will find most cases) although CT is not perfectly specific (other things can look like COVID, so CT canít 100% guarantee it is COVID). But this high sensitivity (plus immediate availability of results) is why China at one stage was using CT rather than swabs to diagnose COVID. During the peak of the outbreak, if the CT looked like COVID then it most likely was COVID rather than something else.

CT images are stored indefinitely, so it is very easy to go back and look for old undiagnosed cases. And very easy to go back to those people and do an antibody test.

That wet market outbreak in December is looking less and less likely to be where this started. And notification to the WHO on 31 December is looking to be very late.
I had CV symptoms over Christmas. By chance I had a CT scan in February. The scan showed an infection in the lungs which waste initially identified as mild COPD. Subsequent examination ruled out any such diagnosis.

At the same time my GP said in March my symptoms could not be CV as I had them in December.
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Old 9th May 2020, 20:35
  #6433 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by dead_pan View Post
It's all well and good to preach but even the best parents would struggle to keep teenage kids in line if they were all couped in a council house or tower block. It must be really tough for many families
Tough indeed...............we don't do tough in the UK now
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Old 9th May 2020, 23:24
  #6434 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by dead_pan View Post
It's all well and good to preach but even the best parents would struggle to keep teenage kids in line if they were all couped in a council house or tower block. It must be really tough for many families
Doing it just fine in my household.

I wonder, if it was a large carnivore roving the land taking what is it? 460 per million? Would the attitude be any different?

Because the result remains the same.
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Old 9th May 2020, 23:45
  #6435 (permalink)  
 
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Why is it a parent problem? It's a community issue. A warning, a fine, another fine and then detention, would sort out most of the others.
They are allowed exercise outdoor in groups of 2, with SD Social distancing in place. That worked here. We are now relaxing our lockdown.
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Old 10th May 2020, 02:42
  #6436 (permalink)  
 
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Most of Oz will tomorrow start a phased relaxation of restrictive conditions that are now in place.

West Oz will open some intrastate borders (zones) for travel and allow restaurants, cafes and pubs to re-open for food service with a 20 person (total) limit within a 4sq metre / person limit.
It's not huge but it's a start.
The company for which I work has been able to continue operations throughout by using a combination of work-at-home and splitting the workforce to strictly enforce social distancing.
No doubt there are many individuals and companies who have been and will continue to be badly affected by what has and will continue to happen.
But by and large our economy is intact, has not collapsed and is now set to commence a recovery phase.

I believe that in the long term the lessons to be learned will not just be about what happened in the US and Europe but what happened in Oz, S-E Asia, equatorial South America that the cataclysmic results seen in Europe did not eventuate.
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Old 10th May 2020, 09:24
  #6437 (permalink)  
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Sunday Telegraph

We can ease restrictions sooner, says specialist

One of Britain’s leading doctors has said a New York study showing more than half of coronavirus patients in hospital had been staying at home suggests the UK should relax its lockdown more quickly.

Cancer specialist Professor Karol Sikora said the study appeared to show that while it was important to protect the elderly, already sick and vulnerable, far more people could be allowed to return to normal.

The survey of 1,269 patients admitted to 113 hospitals over three recent days - the first such look at people getting seriously ill despite six weeks of severe social distancing - confounded expectations It found that the majority of people hospitalized with the coronavirus across the state of New York had been staying at home and were not essential workers, prompting the questions of whether or not lockdowns work or for how long they are necessary.

Of those surveyed two thirds of sufferers were staying home and one in five had come from a nursing home........ Crucially, almost all - 96% - had underlying conditions. Professor Sikora, Dean of the University of Buckingham’s medical school, told the Sunday Telegraph, the study appeared to show lockdowns were of “limited use”.

He said: “It is fascinating that it doesn’t seem to matter if you’re locked down or not. These people were locked down, but they had a high rate of admission”.

“Lockdown is only of limited use. The risk factors for Covid are age, illness and ethnicity. These have more impact on what you are going to get and if you are going to be hospitalised than if you are out and about as normal. Covid is targeting obese people and people with lung conditions. If we shelter those who are vulnerable and ill, we can get more people back to normal”.

Professor Sikora added: “Our 200 staff come to work as normal and have been out on public transport, but none has been hospitalised, though some have contracted Coronavirus and self-isolated for 14 days. We have to look at what is happening in the UK. Street cleaners are working, bin men are working. Though most shops are shut, workplaces are open and there is no evidence here of what we saw in New York with its dramatic infection rates.”...........

Dr Daniel Murphy, chairman of the Department of Emergency Medicine at St. Barnabas Hospital in the Bronx said “inordinate fear” has guided the public response.

“While Covid-19 is serious, fear of it is being over amplified. The public needs to understand the majority of infected people do quite well. The community I serve is poor. Most work is “essential” low paid jobs where distancing isn’t easy. Nevertheless, the wave passed over us, peaked and subsided. This tells me the ebb and flow had more to do with the natural course of the outbreak than it did with the lockdown”..........

Last edited by ORAC; 10th May 2020 at 11:21. Reason: Sp
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Old 10th May 2020, 09:59
  #6438 (permalink)  
 
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Interesting that this suggests that lockdown is ineffective. It begs the question as to what the transmission route is for people who are infected in lockdown.

I can understand there being a relatively high risk for people in nursing homes, or those receiving regular care visits in their homes, but for those who are essentially isolated from others, I wonder how they are getting infected?

Could it be from stuff coming into their homes, perhaps? I'm not sure how many people are taking care to try and disinfect everything before it enters their home, and I'd guess many just may not be able to do this, anyway.
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Old 10th May 2020, 10:41
  #6439 (permalink)  
 
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Could it be from stuff coming into their homes, perhaps? I'm not sure how many people are taking care to try and disinfect everything before it enters their home, and I'd guess many just may not be able to do this, anyway
In our house outside coats remain in the car, Kitchen is divided in to clean and contaminated areas any thing that can be washed is washed in hot soapy water and placed in the clean area, anything that can not be washed ie boxes of stuff etc is wiped over with disinfectant , shopping bags are put back in the car and the contaminated area is then disinfected. Started doing all this about a week and a half before lockdown. Any other ideas??
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Old 10th May 2020, 10:59
  #6440 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
Interesting that this suggests that lockdown is ineffective. It begs the question as to what the transmission route is for people who are infected in lockdown.

I can understand there being a relatively high risk for people in nursing homes, or those receiving regular care visits in their homes, but for those who are essentially isolated from others, I wonder how they are getting infected?

Could it be from stuff coming into their homes, perhaps? I'm not sure how many people are taking care to try and disinfect everything before it enters their home, and I'd guess many just may not be able to do this, anyway.
There are still a lot of unanswered questions about transmission routes.

But, as the lockdown in the UK eases and more outdoor activities are permitted. As people start flocking to sit in outdoor cafes, and browse garden centres and outdoor market stalls. As people perhaps wander around places like Covent Garden and Spitalfields - large hangar-like structures open to the breeze (well ventilated so surely low risk?).

As people do all this - it's perhaps worth remembering - this all seems to have started in a large market, partly outdoors and partly a hangar-like structure open to the breeze.









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