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Coronavirus: The Thread

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Coronavirus: The Thread

Old 8th May 2020, 08:13
  #6321 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Gipsy Queen View Post
On a less statistical note; yesterday I went to a funeral held in the local cemetery and attended by 10 of the deceased's family as well as a parson. I stood apart from the main body of mourners who were observing the distance protocols. At the end of the very abbreviated ceremony, I was approached by the widow who was somewhat agitated that the presence of me and my wife caused the number present to exceed the prescribed limit and that the displeasure of the authorities might be incurred as a consequence. We withdrew.

I was caused to wonder at the arbitrariness of an indefinite number (providing that the 2 metre rule was observed), being permitted to congregate in the narrow street outside the gates, but such was not allowed within the broad expanse of the large cemetery itself. The funeral party, myself, wife and a couple of workmen leaning on their shovels in the far distance provided a total of 15 people present. The other 793 there were dead and past caring.

This sort of proscription (like church visits) is wholly nonsensical and does nothing to encourage confidence in the government's ability to successfully manage this pandemic. Indeed, it has the contrary effect of generating increasing civil resistance to governmental edicts as evidenced in part by the increasing amount of road traffic. Ferguson's fall from grace and the inaccuracy of his oracular predictions being exposed has only highlighted so much humbug and ineptitude attending the management of the disease. Of course, this mismanagement is assisted by the pliant and supine nature adopted by the populace.
I sympathise with your opinion, we have the funeral of my mother in law 3 weeks ago, and as with your situation only 10 mourners were allowed. There arbitrary limits on mourners appear somewhat pointless, a broad brush, however I think the authorities had to consider the consequences of large numbers gathering at funerals, hugging, kissing, sniffling and crying in the aftermath. 10 people will cover the immediate family as a rule, but if your broaden the circle of mourners to the next "ripple", cousins, uncles, aunts number can quickly get out of hand.

I also understand the views of the widow, who having not been able to perhaps have all her relatives around her, saw a non relative attending - it is an emotional time.

Closing churches, where generally only a few older (and therefore vulnerable) people tend to attend services again appear a little severe, look at other places of worship, such as mosques, synagogues, Sikh temples and the like and without closing places of worship the possibility of transmission into the community is yet greater. I'm sure that despite the lockdown, as has happened with a few pubs, some places of worship have ignored the rules, and this may in some way go to explain why deaths in the Afro Caribbean and Asian communities is higher than the population average.
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Old 8th May 2020, 09:10
  #6322 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by golder View Post
Dark skins in the UK would be more Vit D deficient. There are reports that thoses who died are all Vit D deficient. Have a google, this is one link about it.
.https://www.researchgate.net/publica...evere_COVID-19

When the deaths per capita is higher than the US and I didn't see any country higher on the current charts. They aren't going to tell you they messed up and you are just corporate cannon fodder.
Its a pity you had to say
'They aren't going to tell you they messed up and you are just corporate cannon fodder.'
'They' presumably being people whose politics you don't agree with otherwise so you put thoughts in their heads and words in their mouths that you can demonise.
There must be better uses for your time and now I don't trust the rest of your post.
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Old 8th May 2020, 09:21
  #6323 (permalink)  
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A friend's father sadly died in Australia last week - not from Covid19 - and his sons, other family and friends here in the UK were obviously unable to attend. The funeral was conducted with an internet video link which worked extremely well, I felt, though it must have been much harder for his family. I listened to the second half on headphones while I was walking to join the pre-opening Tesco queue and passed by the church where once he had been the Vicar, which gave a greater connection to the service half a world away.

My uncle's partner has also died - Covid19 is on her death certificate - and if there is a video link, I will virtually attend her funeral in two weeks. Easier with a cremation than a burial I guess.
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Old 8th May 2020, 10:30
  #6324 (permalink)  
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A NEW NORMALITY

In passing I note the R figure in Germany is not dissimilar to that in the UK outside hospitals and nursing homes.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...riefings-cease

Coronavirus part of new normality, says German agency as briefings cease

Germany will have to learn to live with the coronavirus, building tactics such as physical distancing and strict hygiene into normal daily life, the country’s leading public health institution has said as it wound up its regular press briefings on the pandemic as a result of a continued fall in new infections.

Lars Schaade, the vice-president of the Robert Koch Institute, said that as Germany’s infection rate had been “substantially pushed back”, the decision to drop its briefing – which has attracted millions of viewers since it began in February, firstly daily and later twice weekly – marked a “new phase”. “The epidemic is of course not over,” he said. “But having substantially pushed the virus back so that the number of new cases are between 600 and 1,300 a day … our approach now has to be to learn to live with the virus and to control it.”

Journalists attending the briefing strongly voiced their opposition to the briefing being scrapped. It has provided the public and media with detailed information on Germany’s infection rates, up-to-date information on the virus’s development, and explanations on preventive measures and the science behind public health decisions, free of any political colouring. Schaade said the media could continue to put questions to the institute’s press department and there would be press conferences in the event of significant developments.

Germany has had 166,091 confirmed cases of coronavirus as of Thursday, according to figures registered with the RKI, an increase of 1,284 since Wednesday. There were concerns that the numbers of new cases were increasing, but Schaade insisted they reflected the normal development on a weekly basis, with higher numbers often registered on Wednesdays and Thursdays.

The country’s reproduction or R rate has fallen to 0.65, meaning that on average every 10 infected people are infecting between six and seven others......

Schaade said he expected the pandemic to last for many more months, and most likely into next year. “It’s clear this virus cannot be eradicated in Germany. There’s consensus on that – at least until there’s a vaccine or a treatment. We will have to try to build this virus into our everyday lives, changing our behaviour to reduce its transmission. We find ourselves in a new normality.”......

Schaade said testing and tracing remained essential to tackling the virus. Although Germany has maintained a capacity to carry out 964,000 tests a week, only 317,000 tests were carried out last week. Schaade said this was a reflection of the fact that the number of infections had fallen, but owing to a global shortage of items such as reagents “it is not bad to have a certain remaining capacity” in expectation of a second wave.



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Old 8th May 2020, 10:34
  #6325 (permalink)  
 
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ORAC, thanks for that, interesting. Still, we are left guessing as to why Germany's death rate is so much lower than the UK or Belgium say.
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Old 8th May 2020, 10:56
  #6326 (permalink)  
 
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I'm not professing to know about all things pandemic, and obviously there are many disagreements currently raging amongst the so called experts, but I am having difficulty in accepting the severity of the current lock downs and the major economic damage it is causing.

Some facts as I understand them (I accept they could be wrong).
1. The virus was started by just one person and has rapidly spread around the world.
2. There is currently no cure.
3. Not everyone is affected the same way.
4. All the lock down measures no matter how severe still don't protect us from 1. repeating itself.
5. Because of 2. then the number of people that will be affected will probably be the same regardless of whatever counter measures are taken.
6. Lock down only brought us an important delay in the number of people affected but because of 2) the final infection figure will most likely be a constant regardless of what counter measures are taken.
7. Hospitals quickly ramped up based on evidence observed in Italy, however in most places the hostpitals are now mostly empty.

Which brings me to the reason for my post.

Should lock down retrictions be eased around this incurable disease to a level that keeps hospitals that are configured to handle the disease operating at a capacity of around say 70%?
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Old 8th May 2020, 11:19
  #6327 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Gipsy Queen View Post
On a less statistical note; yesterday I went to a funeral held in the local cemetery and attended by 10 of the deceased's family as well as a parson. I stood apart from the main body of mourners who were observing the distance protocols. At the end of the very abbreviated ceremony, I was approached by the widow who was somewhat agitated that the presence of me and my wife caused the number present to exceed the prescribed limit and that the displeasure of the authorities might be incurred as a consequence. We withdrew.

I was caused to wonder at the arbitrariness of an indefinite number (providing that the 2 metre rule was observed), being permitted to congregate in the narrow street outside the gates, but such was not allowed within the broad expanse of the large cemetery itself. The funeral party, myself, wife and a couple of workmen leaning on their shovels in the far distance provided a total of 15 people present. The other 793 there were dead and past caring.

This sort of proscription (like church visits) is wholly nonsensical and does nothing to encourage confidence in the government's ability to successfully manage this pandemic. Indeed, it has the contrary effect of generating increasing civil resistance to governmental edicts as evidenced in part by the increasing amount of road traffic. Ferguson's fall from grace and the inaccuracy of his oracular predictions being exposed has only highlighted so much humbug and ineptitude attending the management of the disease. Of course, this mismanagement is assisted by the pliant and supine nature adopted by the populace.
All, so predictably and dismally true.
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Old 8th May 2020, 11:21
  #6328 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by cattletruck View Post
I'm not professing to know about all things pandemic, and obviously there are many disagreements currently raging amongst the so called experts, but I am having difficulty in accepting the severity of the current lock downs and the major economic damage it is causing.

....................................
Should lock down retrictions be eased around this incurable disease to a level that keeps hospitals that are configured to handle the disease operating at a capacity of around say 70%?
Some facts as I understand them (I accept they also could be wrong).
I'm also am not professing to know about all things pandemic but I have a pretty good idea of how its unfolding in the Antipodes.

Some facts as I understand them (I accept they could be wrong).
1. The virus may well have been started with just one person - possibly more than one.
2. There is currently no cure. - OK
3. Not everyone is affected the same way. - OK
4. All the lock down measures no matter how severe still don't protect us from 1. repeating itself. - if implemented as in the UK or most of the world for that matter.
But there are enough examples to show that this is not necessarily true. Oz, NZ, etc.

5. Because of 2. then the number of people that will be affected will probably be the same regardless of whatever counter measures are taken. See No 4.
6. Lock down only brought us an important delay in the number of people affected but because of 2) the final infection figure will most likely be a constant regardless of what counter measures are taken. Refer No 4.
7. Hospitals quickly ramped up based on evidence observed in Italy, however in most places the hospitals are now mostly empty. - Especially Oz, NZ.

Which brings me to the reasoning behind my post - your one question.

"Should lock down retrictions be eased around this incurable disease to a level that keeps hospitals that are configured to handle the disease operating at a capacity of around say 70%?"

To which I reply "You seem to be overlooking or failing to mention one very important extra fact.
How many people will die as a result of easing the restrictions as compared to current rates when lock down restrictions are more effectively implemented. And so, again - REFER No 4."
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Old 8th May 2020, 11:30
  #6329 (permalink)  
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Australia and New Zealand have, as Islands, managed to keep the virus out by effectively isolating themselves from the world. The UK might be an island but, due to location, history, the EU and sea and tunnel links that was never an option.

The question I would ask, assuming the virus, as the Institute in Germany admits, the virus will remain endemic in the world for years, and probably permanently, is how long Australia and New Zealand can maintain their isolation?

Travellers have always accepted the use of sprays in aircraft to keep out insects etc. I am not sure requiring all visitors to accept 14 days quarantine on remote islands will do wonders for their business and tourist industries.
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Old 8th May 2020, 11:35
  #6330 (permalink)  
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Reference attendance at funerals.

As previously with the number of times you can exercise, the limit to 10 people is not in in the Act. see Section 6(2)g below.

However, Gipsy_Queen's attendance was prohibited as family members were in attendance. The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) Regulations 2020

6.—(1) During the emergency period, no person may leave the place where they are living without reasonable excuse.

(2) For the purposes of paragraph (1), a reasonable excuse includes the need—.........

(g)to attend a funeral of—
(i)a member of the person’s household,
(ii)a close family member, or
(iii)if no-one within sub-paragraphs (i) or (ii) are attending, a friend;
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Old 8th May 2020, 11:47
  #6331 (permalink)  
 
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the virus will remain endemic in the world for years, and probably permanently
Which is why I believe the lock down severity that we put in place would serve us better if it was linked with the capacity to handle the outbreaks of the disease. A zero infection rate is to the best to my knowledge practically impossible therefore we must adapt and learn to live with this disease for the next couple of years without punishing ourselves unnecessarily.
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Old 8th May 2020, 11:51
  #6332 (permalink)  
 
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It has started, 'First movers covid-19 group.' Among the members are Austria, Denmark, Norway, Greece, the Czech Republic, Israel, Singapore, New Zealand and Australia.

What was discussed by the First Movers Covid-19 Group

Our COVID-19 Informer will keep you up to date with everything you need to know today.
www.canberratimes.com.au
These are the countries acted quickly to control the spread of COVID-19 and have been very successful in containing the virus.
By all accounts much of last night's meeting was spent discussing not just the importance of tracing and testing for the virus, managing localised outbreaks and scientific cooperation, but the measures involved in reopening economies. It is a question much of the world is struggling with right now.



Last edited by golder; 8th May 2020 at 12:03.
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Old 8th May 2020, 12:16
  #6333 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Reference attendance at funerals.

As previously with the number of times you can exercise, the limit to 10 people is not in in the Act. see Section 6(2)g below.

However, Gipsy_Queen's attendance was prohibited as family members were in attendance. The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) Regulations 2020

6.—(1) During the emergency period, no person may leave the place where they are living without reasonable excuse.

(2) For the purposes of paragraph (1), a reasonable excuse includes the need—.........

(g)to attend a funeral of—
(i)a member of the person’s household,
(ii)a close family member, or
(iii)if no-one within sub-paragraphs (i) or (ii) are attending, a friend;
The problem isn't "the law" it's local councils that are all making up their own rules, and since the councils run the crematoria, you have absolutely no alternative to but to do as you're told, if you want the funeral to go ahead. In some areas the number of mourners is 10, in some 5, some may be more.

It might have been made the lockdown more effective had the government clearly laid down what could and couldn't be done, and to be honest. stiffer fines for people who break the law, and less latitude for offenders might have made the lockdown more effective. I don't think the French were necessarily wrong in demanding official authorisation for people to leave their houses. There's been too much pussy footing around, and light touch here, hence the continuing high infection rates.
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Old 8th May 2020, 12:21
  #6334 (permalink)  
 
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I was reading some paper earlier today that stated that the vast majority of new Covid-19 infections in the New York Tri-State area were people who had remained in isolation for the last 6 weeks and were just coming out now.....As has been stated with hospital staff dying because of the immense viral load of being around ill people all day, could it be that those who have been out and about for shopping etc have received micro-doses of the virus over a period, which has made them more capable of not becoming ill, a sort of 'coping resistance' ? I know there is a phenomenon with radiation that make humans living in the vicinity (but at a safe distance) have more resistance to the effects of radiation, almost as if it 'revs up' the cells in the body to cope with the 'attackers'.

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Old 8th May 2020, 12:26
  #6335 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SpringHeeledJack View Post
I was reading some paper earlier today that stated that the vast majority of new Covid-19 infections in the New York Tri-State area were people who had remained in isolation for the last 6 weeks and were just coming out now.....As has been stated with hospital staff dying because of the immense viral load of being around ill people all day, could it be that those who have been out and about for shopping etc have received micro-doses of the virus over a period, which has made them more capable of not becoming ill, a sort of 'coping resistance' ? I know there is a phenomenon with radiation that make humans living in the vicinity (but at a safe distance) have more resistance to the effects of radiation, almost as if it 'revs up' the cells in the body to cope with the 'attackers'.
It sounds to a layman as though there could be some truth in this, or it could be that those isolated needed to be, and were more susceptible to small doses of the virus, so became seriously ill more easily when they ventured out, in which case by isolating they were just putting off the inevitable - which indeed we all could be, unless or until a vaccine comes along.
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Old 8th May 2020, 12:28
  #6336 (permalink)  
 
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I think a major problem is that there are a large number of people who are either complete numpties, or who just don't give a toss about anyone other than themselves. That creates a big problem for the government, as, whilst it might be theoretically perfectly OK to have some things open, with some basic procedures adopted to limit the risk of disease transmission, teaching people to behave safely just isn't going to happen.

Adopting the very blunt instrument of closing practically everything didn't need much in the way of detailed interpretation, or educating people as to how to stay safe, it could be done with a repeated short message to "Stay At Home". Nice and easy, at least in principle, and fairly easy to police.

Easy up on restrictions is likely to be a hell of a lot more difficult. Some are bound to interpret "easing up" as "removing completely", plus there will be loads of cases where someone will argue that they should be allowed to do something just because someone else is being allowed to do something. Policing it will be a nightmare - we've already seen how hard the police seemed to find policing the pretty simple "Stay At Home" message, it took them a couple of weeks to stop doing daft stuff like telling kids off for playing in their own front garden.

I suspect most here could stay pretty safe and use common sense when restrictions are eased, but there will be very large numbers of people that either just don't have a clue as to how infection is spread, or who really just couldn't care less. I guess we've all seen examples of gross stupidity from those who are supposed to be our leaders, many of whom clearly don't have a clue as to how to behave, so expecting most of the population to understand how to keep themselves and other safe is a near-impossible ask, IMHO.

The "micro dose" idea doesn't seem to stand up well to inspection. All known viral infections only need a single dose to initiate, and although a few may progress more rapidly if the initial dose of virus is high, for most it seems to make very little difference. If anything, a small dose of virus that doesn't cause disease might "pump prime" the immune system, so a later infection might be less severe than it otherwise might have been, a bit like a crude version of inoculation.
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Old 8th May 2020, 12:31
  #6337 (permalink)  
 
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The German Statistical Office (Bundesamt) has just issued a press release for weeks 13,14 and 15 covering excess mortality. In these three weeks just over 4,000 extra deaths occurred (446,1727,1979 for each of these weeks). It says that as flu has disappeared early this can be attributed most likely to direct and indirect Corona influence amongst other things. The figures are provisional and only up to mid April. They are about 10% up on the usual rate.
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Old 8th May 2020, 12:49
  #6338 (permalink)  
 
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highflyer40: To go back to my earlier post re daily cases. Only one of us in this conversation is aware of what was in my mind when I composed my original post about daily cases. And that person's name begins with Kelvin! It should be obvious from a proper reading of my post that my concern/query was how there seems to be little change in the number of daily cases. Perhaps I could have written it out in a long form eg:
April 1st New Cases=4,324
April 2nd New Cases =4,244
April 3rd New Cases=4,450
ad nauseam.
I chose to mention averages as a way of making it brief. For instance, the tally of new cases April 10th was 8,681 and for May 1st was 6,201. Both can be disregarded as "outlyers".
If you look back at the figures for March, there was a few very steep rises in the number of new cases but from April 1st the general trend has been stable with the odd exceptional days. So, again ref my original post, the curve seems to have flattened out, as per the government's stated aim.
Incidentally, if you listened to the Covi19 sub committee yesterday, one of the expert contributors, Prof John Edmunds, mentioned 20,000 cases per day currently. Where are the 15 or 16 thousand additional cases listed?
The same expert also has a different idea on the R rate, saying it is between 0.75 and 1, somewhat less optimistic than the government's stated number of 0.6 to 09. Maybe it is time the government stopped mentioning this figure and stick to the less informative but more honest answer of "Dunno".
I am also a bit puzzled by the apparent flatness of the new cases curve over the same period that the number of people tested has been ramping up at a significant rate. Does this tell us that the tests are not working or giving false negatives or what? (Note, I mentioned 'people tested', not 'tests administered').
.
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Old 8th May 2020, 12:50
  #6339 (permalink)  
 
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but there will be very large numbers of people that either just don't have a clue as to how infection is spread, or who really just couldn't care less.
Very true. My favourite coffee shop opened up early this week so I paid them a visit. I waited 7 minutes for them to take my order as the couple before me procrastinated, then waited 4 minutes for my take-away coffee during which time three real estate agents walked in and like the complete numpties they were ignored the distancing measures the shop had put in place. The next day I went back to the competitor who hadn't shut down during the crisis and has been on top of the situation by implementing and enforcing efficient safety procedures that appear to work well.
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Old 8th May 2020, 12:54
  #6340 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
I think a major problem is that there are a large number of people who are either complete numpties, or who just don't give a toss about anyone other than themselves. That creates a big problem for the government, as, whilst it might be theoretically perfectly OK to have some things open, with some basic procedures adopted to limit the risk of disease transmission, teaching people to behave safely just isn't going to happen.

Adopting the very blunt instrument of closing practically everything didn't need much in the way of detailed interpretation, or educating people as to how to stay safe, it could be done with a repeated short message to "Stay At Home". Nice and easy, at least in principle, and fairly easy to police.

Easy up on restrictions is likely to be a hell of a lot more difficult. Some are bound to interpret "easing up" as "removing completely", plus there will be loads of cases where someone will argue that they should be allowed to do something just because someone else is being allowed to do something. Policing it will be a nightmare - we've already seen how hard the police seemed to find policing the pretty simple "Stay At Home" message, it took them a couple of weeks to stop doing daft stuff like telling kids off for playing in their own front garden.

I suspect most here could stay pretty safe and use common sense when restrictions are eased, but there will be very large numbers of people that either just don't have a clue as to how infection is spread, or who really just couldn't care less. I guess we've all seen examples of gross stupidity from those who are supposed to be our leaders, many of whom clearly don't have a clue as to how to behave, so expecting most of the population to understand how to keep themselves and other safe is a near-impossible ask, IMHO.
It amazes me, though perhaps it shouldn't, that despite how often the BBC has put on it's news website information as to what 2m looks like, many people appear not to have a clue, possibly not to care, or possibly both.

When it comes to easing the lock down and getting the UK back to work, I'm a little surprised that, at least for work places the UK government hasn't opted to reduce the social distancing to 1.5m, which is essentially the norm for the rest of Europe, and would have the effect, in production and pick and pick environments of allowing one extra person to work in each distance of 6m - from 4 people to 5, so a 25% increase in workforce, which ought to enable increased output. Same for call centres. I believe the WHO recommendation for social distancing is 1 metre minimum.

HMG could also start to open hotels, with their restaurants for residents only, and ban self service buffets, which would enable to professional running the establishments to ensure 1.5m separation. For pubs, by stopping ordering and sales at the bar, standing, and distancing tables; whilst the British "pub culture" would be (temporarily??) lost, it would allow people to feel as though their lives were being less restricted, and also get more people back to work, this easing pressure on the exchequer. Personally, I would welcome the concept of being served with my drinks (and food) at table. These changes would put up the cost of drinks and pub food (fewer covers whilst the same time probably more staff per customer) but that may be a small price to pay.
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