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Coronavirus: The Thread

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Coronavirus: The Thread

Old 18th Apr 2020, 10:17
  #5101 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: UK
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Originally Posted by DON T View Post
What if some restrictions are lifted?

If I were a betting man, we’re in for a longer lockdown.

Maybe they didn’t check the date.
It was probably an accident of the calendar. The next block of 3 weeks started yesterday, so will finish on 7th May - one day before the shifted Early May Bank Holiday. If the restrictions were to be slackened in time for that bank holiday it would be a purely political decision; in reality the earliest we're likely to see any relaxation of the rules will be the Thursday before the Spring Bank Holiday judging from how things have progressed in mainland Europe.
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Old 18th Apr 2020, 10:33
  #5102 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
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I've just plotted out the number of new cases per day since 15th February to yesterday, to show the trend. The numbers bounce up and down a fair bit from day to day, but it seems clear that the measures that are in place now seem to be keeping a lid on it, and stopping the exponential increase that would be expected if no action had been taken (cases should have doubled about every 3 days or so if nothing had been done) :


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Old 18th Apr 2020, 10:35
  #5103 (permalink)  
 
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I have found the Ignore list a good way of eliminating the more obviously politically motivated posters.
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Old 18th Apr 2020, 10:38
  #5104 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
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Hopefully another bit of positive news. Some of the article is behind a paywall but the graphs show an optimistic trend.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/17/coronavirus-infections-have-peaked-in-much-of-the-rich-world
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Old 18th Apr 2020, 10:45
  #5105 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by BehindBlueEyes View Post
Hopefully another bit of positive news. Some of the article is behind a paywall but the graphs show an optimistic trend.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/17/coronavirus-infections-have-peaked-in-much-of-the-rich-world
Thanks for that link. I've cut and pasted the charts from there, as they look pretty interesting:



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Old 18th Apr 2020, 10:52
  #5106 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: "Deplorable but happy as a drunken Monkey!
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Continued good news in my State of North Carolina.

Seven of One Hundred Counties report Zero Cases of the Virus.

Available Hospital Beds are far less than demand, Ventilators available are well above demand, the Infection trend remains flat.

Just a couple of Hot Spots in the State.

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/lo...241168731.html

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Old 18th Apr 2020, 10:55
  #5107 (permalink)  
 
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Also this:- https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...iously-thought

If true, we may be getting nearer herd immunity than previously thought.
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Old 18th Apr 2020, 10:58
  #5108 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
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Originally Posted by Nolongerin View Post
I thought Twitters comments ‘Life as we know it’ reflected my views entirely - until the Earl Grey tea was mentioned.
Yes he lost me there too. And he was doing so well.
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Old 18th Apr 2020, 11:05
  #5109 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
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Originally Posted by DON T View Post
What if some restrictions are lifted?

If I were a betting man, we’re in for a longer lockdown.

Maybe they didn’t check the date.
More likely the simple fact we're in a three week decision cycle.

Concur regarding another extension.
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Old 18th Apr 2020, 11:06
  #5110 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Bergerie1 View Post
Also this:- https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...iously-thought

If true, we may be getting nearer herd immunity than previously thought.
We probably need to be a bit cautious about assuming there may be "herd immunity". The WHO are suggesting this has yet to be proven, and there is some limited evidence that people are being re-infected after they have recovered.
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Old 18th Apr 2020, 11:07
  #5111 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by dead_pan View Post
Yes he lost me there too. And he was doing so well.
To me, the most telling statistic is that the UK has had fewer cases of Covid19 than Germany, but more than three times as deaths.

Either we've missed a large number of cases altogether, or we are much worse at treating them.

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Old 18th Apr 2020, 11:21
  #5112 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sallyann1234 View Post
To me, the most telling statistic is that the UK has had fewer cases of Covid19 than Germany, but more than three times as deaths.

Either we've missed a large number of cases altogether, or we are much worse at treating them.
Or, as has been highlighted on here before, our methods of recording cause of death are different.
Death ‘with’ or ‘due to’ Quite a subtle but important disparity.


Last edited by BehindBlueEyes; 18th Apr 2020 at 12:01.
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Old 18th Apr 2020, 11:22
  #5113 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sallyann1234 View Post
To me, the most telling statistic is that the UK has had fewer cases of Covid19 than Germany, but more than three times as deaths.

Either we've missed a large number of cases altogether, or we are much worse at treating them.
There was a report on Newsnight on this a few nights ago. They've been doing far more community testing and contact tracing we have, also there's a suspicion that they're under-reporting deaths in the community. I also read somewhere recently that they have a different approach to reporting co-morbidity data.

Apparently we were closely coordinating our actions with Germany up until mid-March. We digressed in mid-March when we moved from the Contain to Delay phase of our strategy.
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Old 18th Apr 2020, 11:47
  #5114 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
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Picturesque photoshot in the Daily Wail of the alluring Meghan suitably PPE'd clutching a DOG ! Pretty obvious the word hasn't spread to California.
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Old 18th Apr 2020, 11:59
  #5115 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2020
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Just to add some balance to the general hysteria:

I'm married to a critical care nurse. The ITU at the large acute care facility where she works currently has five occupied ITU beds out of a theoretical capacity of 44. Such is the number of clinical staff that have been co-opted to work in ITU that for the past week many of them have been wandering around aimlessly with nothing to do. Meanwhile, the wards that they have been pinched from are complaining because they don't have enough staff. It is a similar story in hospitals around the country, but the minority of hospitals in London with busy ITUs (while the Nightingale hospital sits basically empty) are the ones attracting headlines. Funny old thing.
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Old 18th Apr 2020, 12:00
  #5116 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SASless View Post
Continued good news in my State of North Carolina....

Available Hospital Beds are far less than demand...
That's a puzzle.
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Old 18th Apr 2020, 12:07
  #5117 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
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If - and only IF - presence of antibodies can be shown to prevent further re-infection.

Last edited by pilotmike; 18th May 2020 at 15:42.
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Old 18th Apr 2020, 12:15
  #5118 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by pilotmike View Post
If - and only IF - presence of antibodies can be shown to prevent further re-infection. If not, it is meaningless, other than being a measure of how many have at one time been infected.

In any case, there is a high probability that the virus already has and will continue to mutate, which by itself will negate any positive benefits there might have possibly been from being infected - even if it does turn out that presence of antibodies does indeed give any degree of protection from future re-infection, which for now seems unlikely.
It's mutated many thousands of times. The genome tracker shows very roughly the time line and geographic spread, mapped by mutations: https://www.gisaid.org/epiflu-applic...t-hcov-19-app/

This graphic shows the geographic spread by mutation, which is interesting, as it's clear which areas have predominately infection from probably a single initial source:




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Old 18th Apr 2020, 12:40
  #5119 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by BehindBlueEyes View Post
Or, as has been highlighted on here before, our methods of recording cause of death are different.
Death ‘with’ or ‘due to’ Quite a subtle but important disparity.
If either of our German resident contributors here could shed some light on the methodology for recording deaths and cause of death in Germany, so we can see if there is any variance between the UK and Germany's reporting it would be interesting. I haven't been able to find anything myself, but I haven't looked much beyond the major German news websites, and my German vocab perhaps isn't scientific enough to trawl for the answers.
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Old 18th Apr 2020, 12:43
  #5120 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Germany
Posts: 824
That is really interesting information VP959 and the timeline of the pandemic is fascinating. If I interpret it correctly the spread from China went in a number of directions, but Belgium seems to have played quite an important role early on. Later the US may have closed its borders to China, but was busily spreading it to the rest of the world.

To answer ATNotts as a German resident I would refer you to the excellent data on the Robert Koch Institute website (rki.de), particularly the COVID dashboard which I mentioned a few days ago. I have not yet found overall death rates from all causes. But I know that the old people's homes in our area are having a pretty bad time of it and that it seems possible that there may be some underreporting of deaths due to COVID in these homes. What you can see clearly is that more deaths are reported during the week than on weekends and holidays and that there may well also be some issues in attribution of cause of death as well as when they happened.

The local newspaper is absolutely packed with death notices, predominantly old people. But last week a pregnant forty year old woman died (the baby survived) and another acquaintance has been in a coma for weeks after picking up the virus in hospital while there for something completely different.

Last edited by lederhosen; 18th Apr 2020 at 13:05.
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