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Coronavirus: The Thread

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Coronavirus: The Thread

Old 14th Apr 2020, 17:58
  #4901 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by dead_pan View Post
Most (all?) were agreeing with him, myself included. I pointed out that the majority of the economic damage was being done in the cities.
​​​​
Certainly I was agreeing with him. The key seems to be population density and movement to and from population centres. Places like New York and London are being hammered, places like North Carolina nowhere near as much.
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Old 14th Apr 2020, 18:03
  #4902 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
...However, the good news is that 99 year old Tom Moore has now raised more than £2 million for the NHS, an increase of £600,000 from earlier today: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan...herts-52278746

My hat goes off to him, as rather than just sit back and criticise, this WWII veteran has decided to quietly do something of tremendous value to us all. He's worth more than 2 million journalists, IMHO, and I sincerely hope that he lives a long time past his forthcoming 100th birthday. We need more people like him, without any doubt at all.
£2.8 million currently!
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Old 14th Apr 2020, 18:15
  #4903 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Bee Rexit View Post
£2.8 million currently!

This is simply unbelievable, isn't it? I bet Tom Moore just cannot for one minute have imagined what his efforts would lead to. He's now almost at £3 million.
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Old 14th Apr 2020, 18:22
  #4904 (permalink)  
 
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Absolutely brilliant - what a human being
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Old 14th Apr 2020, 18:34
  #4905 (permalink)  
 
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He's just topped £3 million
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Old 14th Apr 2020, 19:26
  #4906 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
Certainly I was agreeing with him. The key seems to be population density and movement to and from population centres. Places like New York and London are being hammered, places like North Carolina nowhere near as much.
You were not one whom I felt was sticking fingers in ears.

For Dead Pan: Thanks for that reply. Something else we don't have as much of (beyond airplanes) is public transport as a "national" habit. In this we are very much different from France, UK, Germany, Italy.
Now, some of our major cities (Chicago, New York, and even Washington with the much trouble Metro) have mass transit and thus the risk that comes with people packed together like sardines.
LA? Not so much. Houston? Not so much. Dallas? NOt so much.
As an anecdote: apparently with so many people staying home, Los Angeles has noticed a massive improvement in air quality.
Heh.
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Old 14th Apr 2020, 19:50
  #4907 (permalink)  
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Lonewolf, we have, noticed not just air quality but light quality and also noise.

The light just seems that little bit bright. You would need a,light meter to prove it but I am sure others will back that up.

We live about half a mile from a very busy road. The terrain is such that we don't really hear a thing, but in two years I have never heard the train. Heard it now and it is five miles away. All I can think is the previous ambient noise put the train noise down in the grass.

Last edited by Pontius Navigator; 14th Apr 2020 at 20:32.
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Old 14th Apr 2020, 19:52
  #4908 (permalink)  
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I don’t think there is much here we didn’t know.

At the end of the day, pending an effective vaccine, this is about herd immunity - not as a policy, but as a fact of life.

Those complaining about the higher level of infections and deaths in countries such as the UK, France, Italy etc miss the point that the other countries may delay their cases, but eventually around 70% of the population everywhere will catch it; and lockdowns will have to occur at regular intervals until that level is reached.

The countries with the higher earlier levels will be able to have lower levels of later lockdown both because they will have a smaller population vulnerable and less people to spread it - and milder cases amongst those getting reinfected. Eventually it will just be another winter flu.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...kdown-pandemic

Last edited by ORAC; 14th Apr 2020 at 20:59.
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Old 14th Apr 2020, 20:48
  #4909 (permalink)  
 
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I share ORAC's view that most of us will get it. I also think that the spread is already a lot wider than the hospital tests have so far indicated. The excess deaths as recorded by the ONS are giving a clearer picture of this. The virus has for instance according to the experts established itself firmly in the care home community. There are some unarguable facts. Older people are harder hit. The homes are an ideal transmission ground with poor personal protection. The UK has around 400,000 residents of such homes. A potential scenario suggests the death toll in this group alone could be in the tens of thousands. How well various countries surge capacity copes with the first wave peak is also going to make a big difference to case fatality. The next weeks are likely to be very difficult. But building immunity as soon as possible is clearly the way to go.
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Old 14th Apr 2020, 20:53
  #4910 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
I donít think there is much Here we didnít know.

At the end of the day, pending an effective vaccine, this is about herd immunity - not as a policy, but as a fact of life.

Those complaining about the higher level of infections and deaths in countries such as the UK, France, Italy etc miss the point that the other countries may delay their cases, but eventually around 70% of the population everywhere will catch it; and lockdowns will have to curve at regular intervals until that level is reached.

The countries with the higher earlier levels being able to have lower levels of later lockdown both because they will have a smaller population vulnerable and less people to spread it - and milder cases amongst those getting reinfected. Eventually it will just be another winter flu.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...kdown-pandemic
Depressing stuff.

Let's just hope/pray that herd immunity is achievable and that it doesn't mutate in the meantime.
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Old 14th Apr 2020, 20:59
  #4911 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by lederhosen View Post
I share ORAC's view that most of us will get it.
I'm not exactly over-enamoured with the prospect of catching this virus, like everyone here. I had both all manner of respiratory illnesses in my youth (whooping cough, bronchitis, colds and flu pretty much every winter) when young and still have abiding memories of how grim some of these illnesses were. If my personal circumstances would allow I would gladly self-isolate until a vaccine was available.
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Old 14th Apr 2020, 21:24
  #4912 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
I donít think there is much here we didnít know.

At the end of the day, pending an effective vaccine, this is about herd immunity - not as a policy, but as a fact of life.

Those complaining about the higher level of infections and deaths in countries such as the UK, France, Italy etc miss the point that the other countries may delay their cases, but eventually around 70% of the population everywhere will catch it; and lockdowns will have to occur at regular intervals until that level is reached.

The countries with the higher earlier levels will be able to have lower levels of later lockdown both because they will have a smaller population vulnerable and less people to spread it - and milder cases amongst those getting reinfected. Eventually it will just be another winter flu.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...kdown-pandemic
This is what I posted about last week. We should be focussing on protecting the vulnerable groups, not shutting down the whole economy. Consequently, that group would ironically be getting better care and attention because the healthy would be able to provide the support and back up needed.

Unless an individual is suffering from dementia, most immuno compromised people already know how to sensibly protect themselves so police time wouldnít need to be wasted chasing around after those that probably arenít at the highest risk anyway.

if I remember correctly, the initial instructions issued by the NHS referred to ďbeing within 6ft of a person for more than 15 minutesĒ Impossible to abide by if youíre on public transport but easy to achieve in normal day to day contact in shops, restaurants or offices if sat separately.

However, this is all theoretical and depends on which expert is being listened to by a government.

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Old 14th Apr 2020, 21:25
  #4913 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
I donít think there is much here we didnít know.

At the end of the day, pending an effective vaccine, this is about herd immunity - not as a policy, but as a fact of life.

Those complaining about the higher level of infections and deaths in countries such as the UK, France, Italy etc miss the point that the other countries may delay their cases, but eventually around 70% of the population everywhere will catch it; and lockdowns will have to occur at regular intervals until that level is reached.

The countries with the higher earlier levels will be able to have lower levels of later lockdown both because they will have a smaller population vulnerable and less people to spread it - and milder cases amongst those getting reinfected. Eventually it will just be another winter flu.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...kdown-pandemic

Only if it doesnít mutate somewhere on its round the world tour.
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Old 14th Apr 2020, 22:41
  #4914 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator View Post
Data accuracy or consistency?

​​​​​In UK we know include 'with CV' as well as 'from CV'.

If other countries do not include the with CV category then you would need to consider excess non-CV deaths might also be with CV.
I really don't know otherwise I would not have posed the question but I think that it's more than that.
Up until yesterday, the first three countries were posting 0 deaths.
All are in proximity too and would have had their fair share of Chinese business visitors up until the point where the gates all closed.

I'm suspecting some other factor, other than non-representative reporting.
I just don't know what that might be.
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Old 15th Apr 2020, 00:55
  #4915 (permalink)  
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I added another post kind of forgetting I was on the Churches should be open/closed thread. I was certainly looking at the gloomiest scenario, but hey, it leaves the possibility of another Adam and Eve beginning.

Any thinking person will have the thought of a second virus nagging away in the back of their mind. Our backs are to the wall already.

It's not beyond the realms to imagine another virus manifesting itself close on the heels of Covid-19. If you add to that, outbreaks of the plague-like disease that hit Philadelphia ~1918 in the midst of the flu, (nobody's sure what it was) the human race could be wiped out. It's a game of chance we can't afford to lose, we have to not only beat this one, but prepare for the next.

That's what South Korea did and they've set a world-class standard. 17,500 people per sq km in Seoul, against London's 4.5k people. Their second grade mask is proving to be nearly as good as the best.

Look at the empty streets and imagine that the missing people have gone forever. Science fiction? The odds are all too real.
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Old 15th Apr 2020, 02:57
  #4916 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
Seems the conspiracy theory nutters are still burning down mobile masts: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52281315

Probably not helped by the pillock Eamonn Holmes seeming to support the view that 5G is to blame: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-52279109

However, the good news is that 99 year old Tom Moore has now raised more than £2 million for the NHS, an increase of £600,000 from earlier today: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan...herts-52278746

My hat goes off to him, as rather than just sit back and criticise, this WWII veteran has decided to quietly do something of tremendous value to us all. He's worth more than 2 million journalists, IMHO, and I sincerely hope that he lives a long time past his forthcoming 100th birthday. We need more people like him, without any doubt at all.
Also leading by example:

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, ministers in her government and public service chief executives will take a 20% pay cut for the next six months given the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic.
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Old 15th Apr 2020, 03:46
  #4917 (permalink)  
 
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I don't share the view that most of us will get it.
Most of us don't get the flu or even the no vaccine yet common cold every year.
Nor did we with MERS, SARS and other totally unnecessary zoonotic diseases.

However, if I or mine do, I shall be very angry and looking for payback.
If I don't, I will still be pressing every damn button I can find to force China to correct their primitive treatment of animals for food.
As it is repeat of dangerous behavior with no signs of change in their ignorant, anti-social recklessness,
I consider it no less than an attack on the people of the world.
The world can modify enough to have no need of what China produces and more permanent travel restrictions might be in order,
if the monolithic CCP continues to be a clear and present global danger.
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Old 15th Apr 2020, 05:21
  #4918 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by dead_pan View Post
Depressing stuff.

Let's just hope/pray that herd immunity is achievable and that it doesn't mutate in the meantime.
I heard a pretty grim interview from a doctor in Switzerland basically saying that immunity won't work that well as this virus has different ways to attach itself inside the body (port of entries as he called it)
Once you had it and recover, your immunity will only protect this particular port of entry, not the others!
He also went to a great length explaining why for a lot of us, our immune system will then overreact trying to get rid of it again.
Implying that a second wave will be more deadly, like the Spanish flue.


If he is right, this thing doesn't even need to mutate.
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Old 15th Apr 2020, 06:03
  #4919 (permalink)  
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Romanian Air Bridge to Stansted

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c...-gap-vvglpxks2

Coronavirus: Pickers flown in to plug farmwork gap

British farmers are being forced to fly in fruit and vegetable pickers from Romania using specialist charter jets to keep up with demand during the coronavirus lockdown.

The first charter flight operating between Bucharest and London Stansted will land tomorrow, bringing about 180 farm workers to the UK from eastern Europe. The plane is the first of up to six to operate in the coming months to keep farms staffed with labourers.

It follows warnings from the Country Land & Business Association that travel restrictions imposed to prevent a spread of coronavirus were leaving agricultural companies short of staff. Many British workers who have been made unemployed during the lockdown have applied for farming jobs but it is not believed to be enough to fill all vacancies.

Many airlines such as EasyJet, Ryanair and Wizz have suspended services between the UK and most eastern European countries amid plummeting demand and operating restrictions imposed by governments, making it impossible for many seasonal farm workers to reach Britain. Now Air Charter Service (ACS), a British company that arranges charter flights, has confirmed that it has booked the first specialist service to carry eastern European farm workers to the UK.

The chartered Boeing 737 will arrive at Stansted tomorrow before the workers are transported by bus to sites across the southeast and Lincolnshire. The flight has been chartered by an unnamed food produce company. Passengers on board the aircraft will be expected to maintain social distancing and will not be allowed to leave Romania if they display any symptoms of coronavirus.

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Old 15th Apr 2020, 06:16
  #4920 (permalink)  
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Number of South Korean Reinfections Grows to 124

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c...time-xrj6pp5z6

South Korea has identified a growing number of people who make an apparent recovery from the coronavirus only to test positive again, raising fears that the virus is capable of striking the same person more than once.

The Korea Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) reported 124 “relapsed” cases of Covid-19 yesterday, an increase of eight from the day before. Doctors are urgently investigating whether mutations in the virus can prevent patients from acquiring an immunity. “The virus will be divided and incubated, and genes will of course be analysed,” the deputy director of the KCDC, Kwon Jun-wook, said. “We are closely looking into possible genetic changes.”.........

Asked whether she feared a second wave of the virus, Kang Kyung-wha, South Korea’s foreign minister, acknowledged that “[of] those fully cured and released, many of them have been found to test positive a few days after”. She emphasised that the reason for patients testing positive for the virus twice was still not fully known. One explanation could be faulty testing. The relapsed patients may have been found positive when in fact they had not yet been infected by the virus, or alternatively the second test may have been a false positive........

Standard tests used to detect the virus rely on identifying certain fragments of its genetic material. False negatives can result from swabs not gathering enough material from a person’s nose or throat. Meanwhile, a later false positive test may have picked up residual “fragments” of the virus that lingered in the patient’s nose and throat, but which were not capable of making that person sick or capable of infecting others.

The KCDC did not go into detail about whether relapsed patients showed renewed symptoms of the disease or infected others. “Investigators are looking into whether the cause of relapse is the virus being reactivated or reinfection with the virus,” Jeong Eun-kyeong, its director, said. “We are also investigating whether relapse cases lead to secondary infection.”.......

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