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Coronavirus: The Thread

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Coronavirus: The Thread

Old 29th Mar 2020, 12:17
  #3561 (permalink)  
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BV, I thought that the graduated response was sensible as the public would not accept flash to hang just like that and I thought that days ago well before lock down was advised let alone ordained.
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Old 29th Mar 2020, 12:19
  #3562 (permalink)  
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Wingnut60,

Its based on the infectivity of the disease, which in the case of Coronavirus is roughly R3.0, and the required level of herd immunity required for its prorogation to stop amongst the population. Which in this case is somewhere between 70-80%. (Vc = 1 - 1/R = <66.66%)

https://www.slideshare.net/singh_br1...-herd-immunity

https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/52/7/911/299077

Last edited by ORAC; 29th Mar 2020 at 12:36.
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Old 29th Mar 2020, 12:19
  #3563 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator View Post
BV, I thought that the graduated response was sensible as the public would not accept flash to hang just like that and I thought that days ago well before lock down was advised let alone ordained.
​​​
Yep, they even said it at the time - “if we start keeping people in now, they will get fed up and start coming out just as the crescendo hits.”
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Old 29th Mar 2020, 12:24
  #3564 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Fareastdriver View Post
Kevlin D wrote

Royal Carribean. who run the ship, have cancelled all their cruises until the 11th May 2020.

https://www.royalcaribbean.com/gbr/e...nerary-updates
Actually, that link refers to US cancellations when it refers to 11th May. However, as I said it is possible it is going to sit things out at Cadiz anchorage. We will have to wait and see. This evening's departure from Southampton has apparently been delayed until tomorrow morning.
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Old 29th Mar 2020, 12:28
  #3565 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Islandlad View Post
Asked and answered. Should stop outbreak 3

I'll leave you to your Murdoch obsessions.
The tenor of most of your postings appears to be very anti China. The reality is that as a one party totalitarian state it could, as has North Korea, continued to pretend there was no virus, and that none of their people were effected. Instead, they chose to be much more open than anyone in "the west" might ever have imagined, taken pretty draconian steps to stop the virus in it's tracks, and not shied away from admitting to the scale of the outbreak.

If fire need to be turned anywhere it is towards nations like the USA and Brazil, both of who's leaders have shown a total lack of leadership and want to pretty well nothing has happened. It is these nations that will delay the return of some sort of normality to the world not China.
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Old 29th Mar 2020, 12:46
  #3566 (permalink)  
 
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If fire need to be turned anywhere it is towards nations like the USA and Brazil, both of who's leaders have shown a total lack of leadership and want to pretty well nothing has happened.
Of course you are entitled to your very well informed opinion......so please do substantiate your basis for stating that.

Explain in detail the reason you think Trump has done nothing to address this virus outbreak.

Start with explaining how your boy got the virus and Trump has not.
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Old 29th Mar 2020, 12:48
  #3567 (permalink)  
 
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PN and Twitter

I think I may have been too nuanced in my previous post.

It was meant to show that I support the graduated steps our government has taken but acknowledge the fact that many on here will complain about whatever response they had made regardless of its effectiveness.

BV
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Old 29th Mar 2020, 13:04
  #3568 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SASless View Post
Of course you are entitled to your very well informed opinion......so please do substantiate your basis for stating that.

Explain in detail the reason you think Trump has done nothing to address this virus outbreak.

Start with explaining how your boy got the virus and Trump has not.
Well shall we start with peddling fake, or at least misleading news in his confounded tweets, then perhaps move on to his ridiculous [demands] that the US needs to return to normal by Easter. Put the economy before public health, and make health a profit centre, and you're simply not effectively fighting the virus or putting the wellbeing of your citizens front and centre.

Who knows how Johnson caught the virus, I suspect through working in that totally antiquated and overcrowded building we call parliament. If it was fit for purpose, with enough space the the number of representatives that we appear to want to cram into it, then perhaps, just perhaps there'd be enough space to permit some sort of social distancing. of course Johnson may just as likely have caught it from a supermarket trolley, or from the handle of a despatch box!
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Old 29th Mar 2020, 13:13
  #3569 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by KelvinD View Post
Actually, that link refers to US cancellations when it refers to 11th May. However, as I said it is possible it is going to sit things out at Cadiz anchorage. We will have to wait and see. This evening's departure from Southampton has apparently been delayed until tomorrow morning.
That is as likely weather, especially as the sailing is not itinerary dependent. A couple of years ago, before a transatlantic, we delayed 24 hours for weather.
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Old 29th Mar 2020, 13:18
  #3570 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Bob Viking View Post
I think I may have been too nuanced in my previous post.

It was meant to show that I support the graduated steps our government has taken but acknowledge the fact that many on here will complain about whatever response they had made regardless of its effectiveness.

BV
That is true, I just read of someone on Eastbourne sea front rollerblading with the seas crashing. He jumped on the traffic light box, mooned at the camera, and zoomed off.

You literalist cannot cater for idiots. May be catch and quarantine in the zoo next to the lion enclosure.
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Old 29th Mar 2020, 13:22
  #3571 (permalink)  
 
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Well shall we start with peddling fake, or at least misleading news in his confounded tweets, then perhaps move on to his ridiculous [demands] that the US needs to return to normal by Easter. Put the economy before public health, and make health a profit centre, and you're simply not effectively fighting the virus or putting the wellbeing of your citizens front and centre.
As I expected....devoid of fact...full of media talking points...and all of it taken out of context.

Now tell us what actions he has taken....and be specific....that proves what you posted in the quoted text.

Start with his issuing a Travel Restriction back in January and work your way forward to say....issuing an order for the call up of Reserve and National Guard Troops, the movement of Hospital Ships, implementing National Defense Authority to get production of needed items like Respirators and the like......and the host of other ACTIONS he has taken.

You skipped over the part where he said he "hoped" the Country could begin to get back to business by Easter....but it would depend upon the situation at that time.

You do not appear to be very well informed....at the minimum.

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Old 29th Mar 2020, 13:25
  #3572 (permalink)  
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As expected problems escalating in India with millions of day workers now going unpaid and overwhelming train and bus stations with hordes trying to return to their home towns and villages; what food stations the government has set up are also overwhelmed with no personal separation.....






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Old 29th Mar 2020, 13:26
  #3573 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
Who knows how Johnson caught the virus, I suspect through working in that totally antiquated and overcrowded building we call parliament. If it was fit for purpose, with enough space the the number of representatives that we appear to want to cram into it, then perhaps, just perhaps there'd be enough space to permit some sort of social distancing. of course Johnson may just as likely have caught it from a supermarket trolley, or from the handle of a despatch box!
Remember the news briefings. The three of them together a bare arms length apart with journalists shoulder to shoulder. The message keep apart and totally the wrong message displayed. Now at least we have just two addressing the TV monitor.

As an aside, I have now attended 4 video conferences, the largest with 110 people. It was in many ways far superior to a real meeting. You could see who was speaking, you could generally hear better, and you could even nip off for a coffee without disturbing their others. Add in travelling time saved and it was a win-win.
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Old 29th Mar 2020, 13:27
  #3574 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by SASless View Post
.

Start with explaining how your boy got the virus and Trump has not.
Well as he's already done a more than credible impression of a virus since he took office why would any self respecting virus wish to infect him....there's no telling how it could mutate after the encounter if it did.
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Old 29th Mar 2020, 13:30
  #3575 (permalink)  
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I got home from my daily exercise a little after sunset last night. Guy screamed past me down Brighton Road at about 50 or 60mph on his motorbike pulling a wheelie. A few years ago a young bloke did exactly the same at about 4am on a July morning - I was awake and the sounds as he and his steed parted company and carried on down the road were most interesting - no screams as he was either unconscious or dead. The bike was 100' up the road.

So if last night's f**kwit chancer had come unstuck, does he really think he deserves the attention of our ambulance crews and the NHS? I think I might have hesitated over dialling 999...
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Old 29th Mar 2020, 13:31
  #3576 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SASless View Post
Of course you are entitled to your very well informed opinion......so please do substantiate your basis for stating that.

Explain in detail the reason you think Trump has done nothing to address this virus outbreak.

Start with explaining how your boy got the virus and Trump has not.





This is their new hoax.” — February 28, 2020

“No, I’ve always viewed it as serious, there was no difference yesterday from days before. I feel the tone is similar but some people said it wasn’t.” — March 18, 2020.

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Old 29th Mar 2020, 13:41
  #3577 (permalink)  
 
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I think the figures published daily now need to be viewed with a little bit of scepticism.

For a fact that western countries are publishing statistics that have such great disparity between needs to be questioned. I don’t buy this, “We’re three weeks behind Italy/Spain” mantra. Therefore, what they are reporting isn’t a model of what awaits any other nation. Until the outbreak, there has been complete freedom of movement between all nations. In the Middle Ages the spread of a plague would have been easier to track as migration and trade routes would have dispersed it more gradually. Today anyone can be anywhere in the world within 24 hours. The number of flights alone would have disgorged numerous infected and carriers at roughly the same rates. Every country in Europe - for example - has a major airport hub that links to China, with a least 1 flight a day, if not far more. Therefore, transmission would have been pretty evenly spread, not concentrated in one or two particular countries. It’s worth bearing in mind that there is no international standard method for attributing or recording causes of death either.

There is also a nuance in the reporting of deaths. Note, these are often referred to as fatalities ‘with’ COVID 19 not ‘due to’ Sadly - and I think this point has been made several times on this thread - many of the victims would have died of something anyway. Mrs BBE’s mother sadly died 2 weeks ago in hospital. She had been in a care home with dementia and also been diagnosed with multiple myeloma. She fell and broke her hip and that was the final straw. It was listed as a secondary cause of death or her certificate. But, a broken hip isn’t a fatal accident, merely a contributing factor. If she was still alive and as frail as she was, I’m almost 100% she would have been another death statistic for Covid 19.

Because the symptoms of COVID 19 can be indistinguishable from seasonal colds and flu, the numbers suffering and surviving it are probably much, much higher. Consequently, the death ratio will be much, much lower. Had this been 4 months ago, Boris and the PoW wouldn’t have been tested and they would have thought nothing more of a few days feeling under the weather. Because we are all in a state of heightened vigilance, we are all much more conscious of sore throats, coughs, fatigue etc. I’ve had so many friends, relatives and colleagues tell me that they have been unwell with vague symptoms but without antibody testing, who knows who has had what, but I guess that’s the gamble and the judgement call the government has to make? This thing may well have romped it’s way through most of the population anyway.

Finally, I read this quote which sums the whole situation up very well too.

“ In a fast-moving scenario such as the Covid-19 crisis, the daily figures present just a snapshot. If people take quite a long time to die of a disease, it will take a while to judge the real death rate and initial figures will be an underestimate. But if people die quite quickly of the disease, the figures will be nearer the true rate. It is probable that there is a slight lag – those dying today might have been seriously ill for some days. But as time goes by this will become less important as a steady state is reached.”
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Old 29th Mar 2020, 13:43
  #3578 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator View Post
Remember the news briefings. The three of them together a bare arms length apart with journalists shoulder to shoulder. The message keep apart and totally the wrong message displayed. Now at least we have just two addressing the TV monitor.

As an aside, I have now attended 4 video conferences, the largest with 110 people. It was in many ways far superior to a real meeting. You could see who was speaking, you could generally hear better, and you could even nip off for a coffee without disturbing their others. Add in travelling time saved and it was a win-win.
Work is now doing web-ex meetings, and I absolutely detest them. No proper eye contact, no real body language on display and no visual prompts as to when you can reasonably butt in and make a point or observations. They have their place, but in my experience no substitute for meeting across a table.

Perhaps full blown videoconferencing is better, but we don't do that.....yet.
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Old 29th Mar 2020, 14:02
  #3579 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
Work is now doing web-ex meetings, and I absolutely detest them. No proper eye contact, no real body language on display and no visual prompts as to when you can reasonably butt in and make a point or observations. They have their place, but in my experience no substitute for meeting across a table.

Perhaps full blown videoconferencing is better, but we don't do that.....yet.
The company for which I am working is using MS Team Viewer and it is working out to be very effective.
Eyes across the table is great but the last couple of weeks has shown that it's not 100% necessary.

I can now say that under normal circumstances I could easily complete my job from home with perhaps a couple of office visits per week to maintain the personal touch.
I am sure that there are still hidden hurdles to come but I'm equally sure that they will be successfully negotiated.
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Old 29th Mar 2020, 14:07
  #3580 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by treadigraph View Post
I got home from my daily exercise a little after sunset last night. Guy screamed past me down Brighton Road at about 50 or 60mph on his motorbike pulling a wheelie. A few years ago a young bloke did exactly the same at about 4am on a July morning - I was awake and the sounds as he and his steed parted company and carried on down the road were most interesting - no screams as he was either unconscious or dead. The bike was 100' up the road.

So if last night's f**kwit chancer had come unstuck, does he really think he deserves the attention of our ambulance crews and the NHS? I think I might have hesitated over dialling 999...
On topic I still can't believe the number of people i see who cycle past our house, out getting their daily exercise fix. Surely there must be safer ways to exercise? The last thing you'd want right now is an avoidable trip to A+E
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